Paul Douglas Updated Forecast

Locked in a dry, quiet pattern

2010-02-24T20:14:00.010-06:00

Attack of the Light Drizzle! Speaking of storms - do TV meteorologists over-hype the weather, day-to-day? Are we consistently crying wolf, so by the time a real storm (whatever that is) arrives people don't take it seriously? "Coming up, news of a storm in time for rush hour. Will it be a half inch or an inch? A carnival of nightmare and death, tonight at 10." Was I guilty of this? Yes, probably, at times. Mea culpa. We were told to go out and "sell it", to generate more interest - to pull in viewers. Between the 'net, texts, tweets and cable news it's harder than ever to get people to stay up 'till 10 pm to get the latest weather report. People pretty much know most of what there is to know by evening - they've been grazing online for hours. Now all of us are "news directors." In truth a lousy inch CAN be a big deal if it arrives at precisely the wrong time, like an hour before rush hour, especially when it's colder than 15 F.

Check out "Attack of the Light Drizzle", focusing on a perceived weather marketing problem in the Boston market. The article is here.

Welcome to the weather equivalent of all or nothing, feast or famine. Mini snow-drought or snow-by-the-foot. We're coming on up two consecutive weeks with little more than a few feeble snowflakes racing past the window, resembling winter in Tucson. Since mid February central Texas (TEXAS) has seen far more snow than most of Minnesota. Baltimore residents are sick and tired of the color white - they've picked up 80" of snow, roughly 4 times what they should have seen as of late February, and another 4-8" is likely later today and tonight. Portions of New Jersey and Pennsylvania may pick up 8-16" of snow, with some 1 to 2 foot amounts over interior New England. What's going on? The most likely culprit: El Nino. This abnormally mild stain of ocean water in the equatorial Pacific has a tendency to nudge storms in a certain direction, favoring an unusually strong, energetic and tropical southern branch to the jet stream, the main superhighway for storms. During El Nino winters the storm track often runs from California into the deep south, then recurves up the east coast. Not every single storm or strange weather oddity can be ultimately chalked up to El Nino. But it's the loaded-dice principal. A warm Pacific increases the potential for rolling pairs of sevens, or in this case increases the prospect of more frequent, more intense storms tracking across the Dixie and the east coast. El Nino winters tend to be cooler, wetter/stormier for the south and east, but drier/milder for many of the northern tier states of the USA, and that seems to be playing out so far this winter. Canada: third or fourth warmest winter on record, to date, and most climatologists are pointing a finger at El Nino.

Just be glad your name isn't "Al Nino." During the severe El Nino of 1983, the event that really put this phenomenon on the map, Al Nino, a hapless resident of Los Angeles, received repeated, threatening phone calls from locals irritated about L.A.'s unusually cool, stormy and foul weather. No - I'm not making this up.

An Watery Monkey-Wrench. For the latest on El Nino click here to click over to NOAA's El Nino page. The reality: every El Nino is different. Roughly 2 out of 3 correlate with milder, drier winters for Minnesota. Snowfall so far this winter (41") is pretty close to average, to date, but temperatures are running 1-3 degrees milder across the Upper Midwest so far.

The big (snowy) Apple? The latest NAM model is hinting at 12-18" of heavy, wet snow for New York City, accompanied by high winds with a potential for near blizzard conditions from Thursday night into Saturday, moisture streaming inland from the Atlantic as a storm temporarily "cuts-off" and stalls offshore. The result may be near white-out conditions across much of New England with severe impacts to travel by air and land.

The Perfect Storm? Check out the latest storm track and chronology. The intense, moisture-laden nor'easter is forecast to stall out near New York City Friday and Saturday. That extra 48 hours of snowfall may result in some 12-18" amounts just inland, but the greater New York City area may receive a crippling snowfall from the early weekend storm. The very latest storm track/timing is here.

Anatomy of a Blizzard? Check out the "cut-off low" centered over Virginia. A counterclockwise wind flow circulating around this intense storm will pump a steady stream of moisture from the Atlantic, reaching Philadelphia, New Jersey, New York City and much of New England. Although heavy rain/ice is possible near the coast a northerly wind in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere may spark heavy snow bands inland.

The Big (snowy/icy/windswept) Apple. The NAM model is hinting at 3-4" for the eastern tip of Long Island, but closer to 14-18" from Manhattan and the Bronx westward to Newark and Princeton. Expect a massive weather-mess in the New York City area and much of New England through at least Saturday as the storm temporarily stalls out, pumping a firehose of Atlantic moisture inland. I expect a number of airports across the northeast (including New York City) to postpone or cancel hundreds, possibly thousands of flights from tomorrow into Saturday.

A Reasonable March? A very lamb-like start to March is predicted for next Monday, at least across Minnesota. The CPC is predicting a warmer March for the Pacific Northwest and the Upper Midwest, including the northeastern third of Minnesota, the main storm track forecast to stay well south/east of the state for the next few weeks, a continuation of the current pattern. Thank - or blame - El Nino for this weather rut, this atmospheric holding pattern.

Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota

Today: Cold start, blue sky, milder than yesterday with less wind. Winds: E/SE 3-8. High: 24

Thursday night: Partly cloudy, not as cold. Low: 11

Friday: Partly sunny, closer to "average". High: 27

Saturday: Mostly cloudy - still unusually quiet for late February. Low: 13. High: 29

Sunday: Peeks of sun, a few passing flurries. Low: 14. High: near 30

Monday: A mix of clouds and sun. High: 29

Tuesday: More clouds than sun, dripping icicles return. High: 31

Wednesday: Feels like March. Mostly gray, but relatively mild. High: 33

More (temporary) fun with negative numbers

2010-02-23T21:05:00.008-06:00

"Hey Paul, cold 'nuf 'fer 'ya?" Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!

No, frankly, it's not. I prefer an ambient temperature much closer to the current surface temperature of Pluto. Preferably closer to absolute zero, where all molecular activity ceases altogether. Yes, it's a bit nippy out there right now, but it's NOT the spirit-crushing, battery-draining, hair-freezing temperatures we endured the first 9 days of January. Consider it a minor relapse, a blunt reminder that spring comes only reluctantly at this latitude. The good news: it won't stay numbing for long, in fact I think we probably bottomed out Wednesday morning - subzero north and west of the Twin Cities, negative numbers greeting most residents of central and northern Minnesota. Factor in a 10 mph breeze and it feels like -10 to -25 F out there, make sure the kids (and assorted spouses) have a few extra layers on before venturing out the door. Another character-building day on the tundra.

Another snowy dumping. The latest GFS model prints out some 6-12" snowfall amounts for the Mid Atlantic states, as much as 1-2 feet of snow may pile up over the higher elevations of interior New England and upstate New York.

February recap. The last time we saw enough snow to gripe about was Feb. 14, when a whopping 1.6" fell, .7" fell on the 15th. Since then it's been a few dribs and drabs of flurries. Yes, the snow is looking pretty crusty and dirty out there right about now.

I'm impressed (a bit dazed?) by our current snow drought. It's been 11 days since we've had a "plowable" snowfall in the metro area (1.6" back on the 14th). Almost all our 14" of snow fell during the first half of the month - it's been amazingly quiet ever since, and I still don't see a storm on the southern or western horizon looking out through the first week of March. The GFS model brings an inch or two of slush into town the first weekend of March, but right now it doesn't look like a big deal. Residents of Baltimore, D.C. and Philadelphia would probably laugh at the amount of snow we've seen so far this winter. Many Mid Atlantic cities have seen nearly TWICE as much snow as we have so far this winter, and more is on the way. A classic nor'easter will work its way up the east coast, sparking near blizzard conditions for DC, Baltimore and Philly late Thursday into Friday morning, along with another half foot or more of snow. Amazing. El Nino? Possibly, although proving cause and effect with the atmosphere is problematic. Parts of central Texas picked up 3-6" of snow Tuesday, the heaviest amounts staying SOUTH of Dallas, near Waco and Lufkin. That same storm will gain strength as it pushes east, tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic, dropping some 1-2 FOOT amounts over interior New England. Rain will mix in for New York and Boston, but just 50-100 miles inland they may be counting snow by the foot, not the inch.

24 hour temperature trend. Note the 10 to 20 degree F. temperature drops over the Upper Midwest. No kidding!

Temperatures moderate statewide as the week goes on, a string of 30s next week as we thaw out one more time. Daytime highs should be near or above freezing almost every day next week. No more arctic swipes are in sight through mid March. This year March will definitely come in like a lamb. That means it will go out like a chipmunk, right? In like a yak, out like an aardvark. Never was good with animals....

Minnesota? Try again. How 'bout Lubbock, Texas, where 2-4" of snow fell Tuesday. Yes, I have an uncontrollable urge to ski Texas. I should get that checked out.

Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

Today: Bright sun, numbing breeze. Winds: NW 5-15. High: 14

Wednesday night: Clear, still plenty cold. Low: 2 (subzero in the suburbs).

Thursday: Lot's of sun, not as cold. High: 22

Friday: Partly sunny, feeling a little better out there. Low: 5. High: 25

Saturday: Mix of clouds and sun, good travel conditions. Low: 9. High: 27

Sunday: Good weather to play in the snow. Intervals of sun. Low: 10. High: 28

Monday: Fading sun behind increasing clouds, closer to average. Low: 15. High: 30

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, flurries or drizzle as we finally thaw out. Low: 19. High: 33

Tumbling Temperatures

2010-02-22T23:38:00.001-06:00

A short & sweet (?) weather update tonight, because let's be honest here: there's precious little to talk about in the weather department. I'm OK with that, btw, because I know (from past experience) that our snow-drought will come to an end in a week or two. It can't stay this quiet much longer - at some point the other shoe (boot) will drop and once again weather will lead area newscasts. More reporters standing out in the snow and slush, telling us that it's snowing and slushing.

A blustery dusting. The chance of accumulating snow increases the farther north/east you drive across Minnesota today. An inch or so of snow is possible from Princeton to Hinckley and Duluth, maybe 3-6" for far northern Wisconsin (the result of lake effect snow).

You'll feel a new sting in the air today as temperatures tumble through the 20s into the teens, a raw northwest wind making it feel like zero later today. That's right: more wind-chill-babble clogging the TV and radio airwaves today. The mercury dips below zero over central and northern Minnesota the next couple of nights, but this will be a brief, glancing blow of arctic air. The core of the bitter air will pass off a few hundred miles to our north and east - this won't be anything like the first 12 days of January. The sun is simply too high in the southern sky, as powerful as it was the third week of October. By the end of the week daytime highs will recover well into the 20s - it looks like a string of low/mid 30s next week. Another thaw, more dripping icicles and gurgling drainspouts. It's been 2 weeks since we've seen enough snow to shovel and plow, and I STILL don't see a "plowable" snowfall looking out through the second week of March. The arrival of numbing air may set off a dusting of snow today, a few roads may get iced up, but I don't expect any widespread travel problems. Today's clipper is starved for moisture, that will limit just how many flakes fall out of that cold, slate-gray sky.

An historic January? According to NCDC much of the planet experience a warmer-than-average January. Red dots signify warmer temperatures last month, the larger the dot the greater the temperature departure from normal. The eastern two thirds of the USA and much of Europe/Asia had a colder than normal January, but that seemed to be the exception and not the rule worldwide. For all the climate information you can possibly digest click here.

Breaking climate news from the NCDC, the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina. We've been preoccupied by some of the bizarre weather, especially the records snows in the Baltimore/D.C. area a couple weeks back. Yes, 40" over 5 days from two separate storms is a pretty big deal. But stepping back, taking a big (global) picture it turns out that January was the 4th warmest since 1880. The world's oceans experienced the second warmest January on record, second only to 1998, the most intense El Nino year on record. Could the current El Nino be keeping the planet warmer than it would be otherwise? Absolutely. February is running 1-2 degrees F. warmer than average across most of Minnesota - the entire winter is running a few degrees above average across not only Minnesota and Wisconsin but most northern tier states of the USA, while readings are dramatically colder over the southeastern USA (and Florida). Blame (or thank) El Nino. Why not - it's an easy scapegoat. When anything goes wrong in my life I blame El Nino. It's the bane of my existence, frankly. I'd have a full head of hair (and weigh 10-15 pounds less) if it wasn't for that dang-blasted El Nino! At this rate I may have to organize a protest of some sort. Stay tuned....

The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for January 2010 was 0.60°C (1.08°F) above the 20^th century average of 12.0°C (53.6°F). This is the fourth warmest January on record.
The global land surface temperature for January 2010 was 0.83°C (1.49°F) above the 20^th century average of 2.8°C (37.0°F)—the twelfth warmest January on record. Land areas in the Southern Hemisphere were the warmest on record for January. In the Northern Hemisphere, which has much more land, comparatively, land surface temperatures were 18^th warmest on record.
The worldwide ocean surface temperature for January 2010 was the second warmest—behind 1998—on record for January, 0.52°C (0.94°F) above the 20^th century average of 15.8°C (60.5°F). This can be partially attributed to the persistence of El Niño across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), El Niño is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010. (source: NCDC)

Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota

Today: Mostly cloudy, gusty, turning colder - a dusting of flurries possible. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 20 (falling)

Tuesday night: Partial clearing, plenty cold. Low: near 0 (-5 outlying suburbs).

Wednesday: Blue sky, numbing breeze. High: 15

Thursday: Lingering sunshine, not as cold. Low: 1. High: 22

Friday: Partly sunny. High: 28

Saturday: Mix of sun & flakes. High: 29

Monday: Closer to average, mix of clouds and sun. High: 31

Pothole season comes early...

2010-02-20T22:28:00.009-06:00

Praying for a gradual thaw. The latest flood forecast has been released by NOAA. There is a better than 50/50 chance of "major flooding" from St. Paul to Hastings and Red Wing. The odds of major flooding in Fargo? 98% Hopefully our eventual spring thaw will be gradual (not accompanied by heavy rain). For the very latest details from NOAA hydrologists (river forecasters) - literally a science within a science - click here.

Good news for commuters. Bad news for snow-loving kids of all ages. The latest storm sliding off to our south will drop a "plowable" snow on much of the Midwest and Great Lakes. Models are hinting at a whopping half inch of snow Tuesday as colder air arrives - no breaking weather news anytime soon.

The last week or so has been unusually pleasant across Minnesota, temperatures running 5-10 degrees above average. Nice to be serenaded by dripping icicles and gurgling drain spouts, although all that melting snow has the unpleasant tendency to re-freeze at night, resulting in glare ice every morning. Water is one of the few elements that EXPANDS when it freezes at night, so all those little cracks in the pavement that fill up with water fill up with water by day, freeze (and expand outward) at night, literally pulverizing highways over time. Yes, we're heading into pothole season in Minnesota, the result of the freeze-thaw cycle. Like gravity (and taxes) it can't be avoided, I fear. Between the ice - and the potholes - and the wet patches throwing up a dirty spray on your windshield - driving can be hazardous - even with nothing falling from the heavens.

Saturday Highs. Click on the graphic to bring it full-screen. Highs were in the low to mid 30s from St. Cloud to the Twin Cities - cooler just south and west (where there is more snow on the ground).

That sloppy caveat aside, there has been precious little to complain about in the weather department in recent days. Saturday's high in the Twin Cities was a relatively balmy 35 (5 degrees above average, 9 degrees warmer than last year on this date). That makes 4 days above freezing since last Tuesday, February temperatures now +1 F. in the metro area - in spite of 13" of snow on the ground. While parts of America wrestle with snow and ice we experienced an odd "Air Pollution Advisory". We've seen at least 5-6 days in the last few weeks with unusually light winds and an "inversion" overhead, temperatures warming with altitude, trapping man-made pollutants near the ground. Mid-winter smog? I know. It's a little strange. Unusual, but not unprecedented. As I wrote last week, rain/ice is becoming more frequent during January and February - according to Professor Mark Seeley at the U. of MN the frequency of ice in Jan/Feb has quadrupled since 2003. We also seem to be seeing more air pollution events during the winter. A smoking gun? Not sure we can chalk this up to climate change (or even El Nino for that matter).

Prediction: frustrated Minnesota snow-lovers. Close but no-go. The models are printing out an inch of liquid water from central Missouri into western Illinois (which may translate into 10-12" of snow). Chicago: potential for 6-8" or more. The forecast is valid from 7 am Sunday through 7 am Monday.

Blame (or thank) El Nino. Unusually warm water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean may be causing the storm track to become temporarily "locked", bringing more heavy snow from the central Plains to Chicago and Detroit. Click here to see the latest NOAA watches and warnings.

Back to reality. Here are Wednesday's predicted highs: close to 20 in the Twin Cities, holding in the teens across much of central and northern Minnesota. With a sun angle as high in the sky as it was during the third week of October it's getting increasingly difficult for temperatures to fall below zero. Difficult but not impossible. I'll be shocked if we don't experience at least a couple more subzero lows before spring arrives in earnest. Where the heck is Earnest, anyway?

I still don't see any real storms looking out 10-14 days. The models consistently keep any real "weather" passing off a couple hundred miles to our south. Another major snow/ice/rain storm may be shaping up for the east coast by the first week of March. Minnesota temperatures run 5-10 degrees below average this week, cooler than average weather probably hanging on through the first week of March. I do expect a warming trend the second week of March, more 30s likely. No dramatic warm-ups (good news for people living in flood-prone areas of the state). At some point that active storm track will probably shift northward - expect a stormier, more active weather pattern the middle and end of March. No, we haven't seen the last of the snow. Statistically we should pick up at least another 10-20" before the first daffodils of spring appear. Count on it.

Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

Today: Intervals of sun, still milder than average. Winds: N 5-10. High: 32

Tonight: Patchy clouds. Low: 18

Monday: Mostly cloudy, feeling a cooler breeze. High: 29

Tuesday: Potential for a little light snow/flurries. Coating - 1/2" possible. High: 21

Wednesday: Cold sun, feels like February again. High: 19

Thursday: Blue sky - brisk. High: 18 (after waking up to 3 F).

Friday: Mostly cloudy, temperatures trending upward. High: 21

Saturday: Mostly gray, closer to average again. High: 27

Snow: the good, bad & ugly

2010-02-19T22:58:00.000-06:00

While young men and women from around the world celebrate the fun side of snow and ice in Vancouver for the Winter Olympics, we're reminded of the high cost of snow and ice (where it's not nearly as wanted and appreciated). From "Planalytics", a weather-intelligence company:

* Last week's paralyzing snow from Dallas (12.5") to D.C. (40" over 5 days) left millions of Americans unable to get to work, no shopping, no retail, no restaurant visits, etc. A rough, back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the subsequent loss of sales and productivity may have reached as high as $36-38 billion from last week's parade of snow and ice storms alone!

* It costs the federal government an estimated $100 million for every DAY it's shut down. Many federal organizations have been closed for nearly 2 weeks now.

* New York City estimates that it costs $1 million/inch to remove snow from the city's streets.

Vancouver, British Columbia. It's been in the 50s downtown, Olympic officials scrambling to keep snow on the slopes. The calendar says mid February, but as far as the atmosphere is concerned it looks and feels more like late March in the Vancouver area right now - probably the result of El Nino warming of Pacific Ocean water.

* El Nino is probably responsible for record-warmth from Vancouver across much of Canada, experiencing one of the 3 or 4 warmest winters on record. Some of this warmth is spilling over into the northern tier states, including Minnesota and Wisconsin - a few degrees above average for the winter, to date. The strong warming of Pacific Ocean water is thought to be at least partially responsible for an extra-energized southern branch of the jet stream, guiding big, wet (at times violent) storms across the Pacific into California, then eastward into Dixie and the eastern seaboard, each subsequent storm pulling unusually cool air south in its wake.

* 31 degree high in the cities Friday, after 3 days in a row above freezing Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. February temperatures are running 1.2 degrees above average so far.

* 40.6" of snow so far for the Twin Cities, very close to where we should be as of Feb. 20. But closer to 50-60" has fallen over parts of southern and western Minnesota, where as much as 5-10" of liquid water is tied up in the snow pack.

Probability of Major Flooding. NOAA is predicting a 96% chance of "major flooding" in Fargo, a 60% risk for downtown St. Paul. Red dots show towns with a greater than 80% risk of major flooding. Yellow dots indicate a 40-60% risk of major flooding, including St. Paul, Hastings and Red Wing. To explore NOAA's flood site for yourself click here.

* NOAA hydrologists (river forecasters) now say there's a 90% chance of flooding on the Mississippi in St. Paul, a 60% risk of "major flooding" in late March and April. It will all depend on how quickly spring arrives. Any sudden thaw, accompanied by heavy rain, will accelerate snow melt and flush snowmelt into area tributaries, increasing the potential for serious flooding. Last year's Red River flooding is still fresh in a lot of minds (60 days above flood stage in the Fargo area). There have never been two epic flood seasons, back to back. If it happens again in 2010 it would be truly historic.

* Friday night on TPTs "Almanac" program the question came up, "why do most Minnesotans believe it's been such a tough winter (when it really hasn't been). My answer: "We've become a state of big weather wussies." (sp?) We were spoiled for much of 2000-2009 with a handful of historically mild, snow-free winters. Some of us thought, "hey, great! This is the new norm." Not so fast. The atmosphere has an uncanny ability to "even things out". A few warm winters are often followed by a few unusually cold winter, but in the end it all pretty much evens out.

* Historically we have another 10-20" of snow left to go, but the odds of sustained, subzero weather are dropping off now with every passing day. The GFS model is hinting at a couple of subzero nights around the first weekend of March, but the odds of a few WEEKS of sustained, bitterly cold weather (like what we endured the first 12 days of January) are slim to 'nil.

Famous last words.

* Water vapor in the atmosphere has increased by about 5% in recent decades. A warmer airmass can hold more water. Basic physics. So does this mean the weather dice is loaded to favor more frequent, intense rainfall (and snowstorms?) Click here for an intriguing story in nationalgeographic.com.

* Do vacations boost happiness? Man, I hope so! Just THINKING about future vacations is enough to pull me out of a dark, slushy funk. The story in livescience.com (and Yahoo) is here. Thanks to Tricia Frostad for passing this along!

White-knuckle Monday AM Commute? Long-range guidance is hinting at an inch, maybe 2" across the southern third of Minnesota Monday, the brunt of the snow passing off south of town.

Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota

Today: Intervals of sun, seasonably cool. Winds: NW 5-10. High: 29

Saturday night: Partly cloudy, chilly. Low: 14

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, few flakes possible late. High: 27

Monday: Period of light snow, maybe an inch or two. High: 25

Tuesday: Flurries giving way to some PM sun. High: 23

Wednesday: Noticeably colder with blue sky. High: 21 (single digit lows)

Thursday: Plenty of sun - brisk. High: 22

Friday: Clouds increase, a bit closer to "average". High: 26

Loading the Dice?

2010-02-17T19:09:00.006-06:00

Weather Factoids

Forecasting a snowfall: the bigger the better. Wait a minute. Snow + TV = Ratings? Amazing! For a big dose of what you probably already knew click here.

Sportsmen key in global warming debate. Do the recent snowstorms in Dallas and D.C. refute climate change, or are these extreme events more evidence? Hunters and fishermen are already noticing changes, literally out in the field. For more click here to read a story from the Sioux Falls Argus Leader.

Minnesota's evolving winters. According to Professor Mark Seeley at the U. of Minnesota the frequency of ice events in January and February have QUADRUPLED since 2003. Coincidence? Maybe. For more details click here.

An Upside Down Winter. Classic El Nino winters are on the right, showing a trend toward cooler south and warmer north. But this winter has been an extreme case, with temperatures as much as 10 degrees warmer than average across Canada, some 8-10 degrees colder for the southeastern USA. This takes "odd weather" to an entirely new level.

El Nino is in full swing, loading the weather-dice to favor more frequent, moist and intense storms across the southern and eastern USA. Freakish one foot plus snowfalls for Dallas, 80+" of snow in the suburbs of Baltimore, so much that authorities have run out of places to push the slush. Although every El Nino event is unique, the vast majority favor milder, drier weather over the northern tier states of the USA and Canada. Vancouver's blooming cherry blossoms and slushy ski runs are just the tip of the iceberg. Canada is enjoying /enduring the 3rd warmest winter on record as Pacific steering winds push well inland, boosting temperatures as much as 10 degrees F. warmer than average since early January. Meanwhile, numbing air from the Arctic Circle has been draining south across Hudson Bay and Quebec, circulating all the way into the Great Lakes and New England. In recent weeks these prevailing winds, the core of the jet stream, the main superhighway for storms, has been running from California to Oklahoma, Memphis and D.C., taking a detour well south of Minnesota. At some point the storm track will shift north again, but I don't see that happening through at least the first week of March. Our winter weather siesta will continue another 10-14 days. Good news for travelers. Bad news for snow lovers (although it won't warm up enough to melt significant snow anytime soon).

An Historic Snowfall. 40-45" in a 5 day period? This high-resolution satellite image was taken days after "Snowmageddon", showing the bright, intense white of fresh snow across the Mid Atlantic States (vs. the scalloped white of low clouds off the east coast).

The weak bubble of high pressure responsible for a week's worth of sunshine and temperatures a good 5 degrees above average (two days above freezing with dripping icicles!) will hang on through Friday. Once again today we may eclipse freezing under a partly-blue sky, a light northwest breeze, the sun as high in the sky as it was back on October 23. If you wander outside into direct sunlight you can really FEEL the difference now. We're picking up 1-2 minutes of additional daylight every day, average temperatures are on the rise, and with each passing day the risk of subzero weather drops off rapidly. I seriously doubt we'll see another subzero daytime high, although a couple more subzero lows are likely before warm fronts have the strength to reach this latitude.

Loading The Dice? Climatologists tell us that there is an estimated 5% more water vapor in the air today than there was a generation ago. A warmer atmosphere can hold more water. There is a growing body of evidence that this spike in water vapor is sparking more extreme precipitation events: flash floods, river flooding, and potentially increasing the odds of major snowfalls. Proving cause and effect with the atmosphere is never straightforward, and many factors may be involved, including a moderate to strong El Nino causing the storm track to temporarily "lock" over the southern and eastern USA. A complicated puzzle? You bet.

Paul's Conservation MN Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Plenty of sun, still milder than average. Winds: NW 5-10. High: 32

Tonight: Partly cloudy, still quiet. Low: 15

Friday: Less sun, more clouds, dry. High: 29

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, a few flurries possible. High: 27

Sunday: Overcast, more flurries, nothing more than a dusting. High: 26

Monday: A period of very light snow/flurries, maybe a coating. High: near 30

Tuesday: Flurries giving way to partial clearing, gusty winds. High: 26

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and chilly. High: 22

The United (quirky) States of America

2010-02-16T22:30:00.000-06:00

Paul's Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Partly sunny, milder than average. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 33

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Low: 11

Thursday: More clouds than sun, slightly cooler. High: 29

Friday: Mix of clouds and sunshine, temperatures close to average. High: 28

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, still storm-free. High: 26

Sunday: More clouds, a few flurries (dusting possible). High: 28

Monday: Leftover clouds, flurries, no more than a coating. High: 31

Tuesday: Increasingly sunny, turning noticeably colder. High: 19

Welcome thaw. The mercury hit 34 F. on Tuesday, 5 degrees above average (in spite of 17" of snow on the ground). It was the first time in 11 days the temperature has gone above freezing in the Twin Cities.

* So far the metro area has experienced HALF as many subzero nights this winter compared to last (15 since December, 2009, compared to 29 last winter at this time).

* Feeling a little perkier? No, me neither. But if you do have a little kick in your step you can thank a higher sun angle (as high in the sky as it was on October 23). We've picked up 103 minutes of daylight since Dec. 21. Can spring be far behind? You betcha!

What a strange winter. Ski tournaments in Vermont have been canceled due to a quirky lack of snow. Meanwhile officials don't know what to do with the 40-50" snow still on the ground in the Philadelphia - Baltimore - Washington D.C. area, experiencing a truly historic winter, the most snow in 100-150 years of record-keeping. Last week Dallas was buried under 12.5" of snow, smashing a handful of records, by far the most snow that city has ever seen in modern-day records. Last Friday there was a moment where snow was reported in all 50 states (a coating on the Florida panhandle, snow on the summit of Hawaii's volcanoes).

More slush than ice. Cypress Mountain, outside Vancouver, where the snowboard festivities are taking place for the Winter Olympics. Recent rains and daytime highs in the 40s have created very challenging conditions for officials trying to keep ice in competition-ready condition.

Which makes the snow situation (or lack thereof) for the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver that much more of a head-scratcher. It's been a remarkably mild winter for British Columbia, the best theoretical (guess) is that a strong El Nino is responsible for a persistent Pacific breeze, blowing unusually mild air into the Vancouver area. It has been so mild that CHERRY BLOSSOMS are blooming in downtown Vancouver right now! There was no snow in the city during January - NONE! As early as Christmas Olympic officials brought in snow-making machines. In recent weeks the "green" Olympics have been forced to truck in many, many tons of snow from surrounding mountains. It was 50 yesterday (in the city), temperatures well into the 40s on the slopes. Cyprus Mountain, home of the snowboarding competitions, has been hardest hit by the warmth and rain (and fog!) It's been a full-time job for officials to try to keep the ice in competition-form, and the forecast for the rest of the week calls for more 40s, but the rain may be winding down, which would be a blessing. Don't be surprised if more Olympic events are postponed, even canceled, due to the unseasonably mild, Marchlike weather. For a great summary of the unusually mild weather click here.

A long list of records. Here are 24 hours worth of weather records for the USA. Note the snow (and rainfall) records for southeastern Minnesota (from Monday's storm). More snowfall records for the Ohio Valley, and high temperature records for the Pacific Northwest (and the Vancouver, British Columbia area). Click here to go to Ham Weather, a division of WeatherNation, where you can see the individual city record details.

Yesterday felt great, highs reaching the mid 30s, a faint whiff of March in the air. Predicting highs with significant snow on the ground is always tricky. The snow acts as a refrigerant, cooling the air from below. The wind direction seems to make all the difference. And here I thought a high of 30 was going out on a limb. Boundary layer temperatures (a few hundred feet above the ground, the level at which there is no frictional component to the wind flowing overhead) are nearly as mild later today as they were yesterday, so we may nudge freezing once again. Temperatures cool off (slightly) as we slide into the weekend, a dusting/coating of flurries possible by Sunday or Monday of next week (a "nuisance snow" at most). Much colder weather returns next week, with 2-3 days in the teens (at least the sun should be out). Long-range guidance is hinting at a potentially major snowstorm for Des Moines and Chicago by the end of next week. That's still way out on the horizon, laughably early to talk timing and potential amounts for Minnesota, but it's conceivable we could pick up a couple inches of snow on the northern fringe of the storm by next Thursday. Stay tuned....

Close encounter of the snowy kind next Thursday, Feb. 25? Day 10 of the GFS model shows a significant storm pushing north across the Mississippi River Valley, brushing central and southern Minnesota with a couple inches of snow. This forecast WILL change over time, as new data arrives (4 new model runs/daily). Just know that the pattern may become considerably more active by the latter half of next week.

Blame it on El Nino? The barrage of winter storms steam-rolling across much of the southern and eastern US may be a symptom of a moderate El Nino. One possible silver lining? El Nino winters tend to be followed by milder tornado seasons across the USA. Time will tell if that's the case in 2010.

Midwinter Reality Check

2010-02-14T23:09:00.004-06:00

* 1-3" snow Monday, more south, less north of the cities. Snow should gradually taper off by afternoon with a cold north wind.

* Storm-free weather should be the rule from Tuesday through the weekend, temperatures within a few degrees of average for mid February.

* The GFS is hinting at 30-34 degree highs from Feb. 24-28, maybe a few inches of slushy, wet snow by the last 2 days of the month.

* Complete 7-Day Forecast: scroll down to the bottom of the post.

It's good to be home, after a week of "studying tropical weather patterns"in the Caribbean. I keep telling anyone who will listen that the key to surviving a Minnesota winter is a few well-timed get-aways. I figure I should practice what I preach. For the record I spent a week on Royal Caribbean's "Independence of the Seas", an amazing ship. I went on as a "guest", came back off 7 days later as "cargo", determined to get rid of the extra 5-7 pounds I packed on. Yes, at the rate I was eating I was afraid I might show up on Doppler Radar - got out just in time. Quite a shock to the system, going from 90 in San Juan to 20 at MSP, but I don't think I'm 'gonna get much sympathy today.

Barely "Plowable". The latest NAM model shows some 1/2 to 1" snowfall amounts for the north metro, but closer to 2-3" just south of the MN River. Burnsville, Lakeville and Woodbury stand a much better chance of 2-3" of powder than Andover and Elk River today. Most of the accumulating snow should be winding down to flurries by afternoon.

Allow extra time to get to work or school Monday morning: we should easily pick up a couple of inches (1" or so north metro, but 2-3" of powder may grease up highways across the south metro). A stiff north wind will blow, whipping up some minor blowing & drifting, especially outside the metro area, with lower visibility near Burnsville and Lakeville - travel conditions getting tougher the farther south you drive down I-35 or Highway 61. This is about as exciting as it gets all week - most of the big, sloppy storms will detour well south of Minnesota this week, just brushing us with a few flurries late Friday and Saturday, little more than a dusting late-week. No mega-storms are brewing looking out through the end of February, but the GFS model has filled me with hope: daytime highs may top 32 from roughly Feb. 24-28 as the upper level steering winds become more "zonal", more west to east. The latest run brings in a few inches of heavy, wet, slushy snow the last weekend of February, right around Feb. 27-28. We'll see. Let's just say that the Groundhog had the right idea, spring is NOT right around the corner.

Weather Nuggets

* 38.3" of snow on the ground at MSP as of Sunday, Feb. 14: that's about .3" more than usual as of Feb. 15, and 8" more than we had last year at this time. But it's less than HALF as much snow as Washington D.C. and Baltimore have picked up so far this winter.

* According to the DNR there's a cool 18-24" of snow on the ground roughly south/west of I-94. According to NOAA estimates there may be as much as 4-6"+ liquid water tied up in that snow cover. If we see a gradual thaw later in March (and no heavy rain events) then we may dodge the flood bullet later in the spring. Although the odds of a flood similar to the one that haunted the Red River Valley for 60+ days in 2009 is small, I'm still worried about the potential for significant flooding along the Minnesota and the Red River 30-60 days from now. If we "limp into spring" we'll probably be ok. But if we see instant-50s, coupled with a few heavy, consecutive rainstorms, then the risk of serious flooding rises by an order of magnitude.

* According to NOAA - in the last week snow has been reported in EVERY one America's 50 states! The last time that happened may have been the harsh winter of 1976-77, when flurries were spotted as far south as Miami Beach!

* According to a weather-intelligence company called Planalytics, it's estimated that a third to a half of all residents of North America experienced significant snow in the last week.

* FAA reports 20,000+ flights impacted by heavy snow last week, impacting roughly 2 million travelers.

Photo courtesy of the Dallas Morning News.

* Dallas experienced 11" of snow on Feb. 11, the most for any day in the city's history. A total of 12.5" of snow fell, much to the chagrin of local TV meteorologists, who had predicted 1-3" from the storm. This is every meteorologist's worst nightmare, right up there with missing a deadly tornado. For a complete recap on what happened, and why the forecasts were off by so much, click here.

* An estimated 1,200 daily snowfall records were set, nationwide, just last week.

* The DC/Baltimore/Philadelphia area was hit by two 20" snowfalls in less than a week, many cities are reporting 30-45" ON THE GROUND as of this morning - incredible for cities that tend to panic when a measly inch of snow falls!

City Season To Date (Inches) Normal Season (October-March)

Baltimore* 79.9” 22”

Philadelphia* 72.1” 23”

Pittsburgh 57.8” 43”

Washington, DC* 55.9” 22”

Chicago 45.3” 37”

Dallas 15.7” 3”

*All time record for most snowfall in one winter season.

· 1,200 daily snowfall records were set over the past week. Some notables:

o Chicago set a daily record when 12.6 inches fell on February 9 – shattering the old record set in 1885.

o Detroit set a daily record when 6.5 inches fell on February 9 – shattering the old record set in 1886.

o Pittsburgh received 5.2 inches of snow on February 10 – setting a new record and making this the 6^th snowiest month ever in city history.

o Baltimore, Washington, DC and Philadelphia each set numerous daily snowfall records throughout the past week.

Including last week’s snowfall and heavy rain events, the retail year is off to its snowiest and wettest start in over 12 years. (source: Planalytics).

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Light snow, tapering to flurries by late afternoon. Totals of 1-3" (1-2" north metro, closer to 2-3" for some southern suburbs). Winds: N/NW 15-25. High: 22, falling into the teens PM hours.

Monday night: Flurries taper, slippery roads. Low: 8

Tuesday: Intervals of sun, better travel day. High: 21

Wednesday: Partly sunny, storm-free. High: 23

Thursday: Clouds increase, close to "average" for this time of year. Significant storms pass south of MN. High: 25

Friday: Intervals of sun, gusty winds. High: 23

Saturday: Clouds, flurries, a dusting possible. High: 21

Sunday: Blue sky returns, nothing "arctic" in sight. High: 24

Presidents' Day Gold Medal Forecast

2010-02-14T20:28:00.000-06:00

I feel like a bump on a log lately, sitting on the couch for countless hours while I watch some of the most amazing athletes in the 2010 Olympic Games do incredible things. I think the thing that impresses me the most about the games is that there seems to be more Olympic Records and World Records set every year! how do they do it? Take a look at the athletes. They get bigger, faster and stronger every year. The gear the athletes use and wear gets better every year and the facilities/course conditions for various sports tends to stay at optimal levels for a longer periods of time. The variability between each heat and racer is minimized, so that everyone has a chance to perform under 'perfect' conditions. Just think about how much the Olympics Games have changed in years past, no wonder why, eh!

From the touching stories of the athletes to the medal ceremonies to the endless amounts of media coverage, you really can't help but enjoy the games for what they stand for. I'm finding myself even enjoying the 'not so typical' events. The events that I am really looking forward too, though, are the hockey games, both men and women. The men's hockey should be a real treat to watch because most of the players are in the NHL. It'll be like watching the All-Star Game each time the puck drops!

OK - OK - enough about the games, how about this weather. There's nothing too exciting about it really, but that light snow should be just enough to make the morning commute and afternoon commute a little hairy. The morning commute will likely out weight the two, so plan accordingly. You may, however, notice a few less cars on the road today due to it being Presidents' Day. That may help the situation out a little. In the meantime, here's how much storm total snowfall to expect from yesterday through today:

Gusty winds will keep the blowing/drifting snow and wind chill factors in play today, but tomorrow is going to be much quieter. In fact, It'll feel quite a bit warmer tomorrow and through the rest of the week as winds subside and temperatures crawl back to near normal levels. There may be a little light flurry activity by midweek, but it doesn't look like an issue at this point. You'll be able to focus on the tasks at hand this week with little distraction from the local weather. I predict that you'll also hear less and less about the recent "Snowpocalypse" from meteorologists as the dust continues to settle and we all begin taking our medication again. Yes, it's true that meteorologists can get a little carried away when talking about the weather sometimes, but like a kid in a candy shop, it's hard to resist the temptation when storms get loaded and bloated with all the right stuff. I'm still searching the extended models for the next big warm up or Arctic outbreak... still nothing yet. Have a good Monday.

Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Monday (Presidents' Day): Lingering light snow early, still breezy. High: 25

Monday Night: Becoming partly cloudy and not as breezy. Low: 12

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, feeling warmer. High: 27

Wednesday: Mix of clouds and sun, a flurry or two possible. High: 28

Thursday: Partly cloudy. High: 29

Friday: Partly cloudy. High: 25

Saturday: partly cloudy. A couple of flakes possible. High: 25

Sunday: Mostly sunny and quiet. High: 24

Retrograding Low Brings Light Snow

2010-02-13T21:14:00.001-06:00

I love winter days like yesterday where everything is candy-coated in a brilliant white fluff. It's like a scene out of a snow globe after all the snow has settled. The phenomenon is known as "Rime Ice" or "Hoarfrost"

*This explanation of hoarfrost is from www.gi.alaska.edu* "If when air is cooled down it contains enough water to cause the dew point to be above freezing, then dew forms. But if the air is sufficiently dry that the dew point is below 0°C (32°F), then hoarfrost forms. Hoarfrost consists of crystalline structures that grow from water vapor evaporated from liquid droplets suspended in air. Once hoar-frost crystals form, they can remain as long as conditions for their existence are favorable."

Wasn't it a beautiful site yesterday?

Today will be a fairly quiet start to the day, but it'll get somewhat interesting by the end of the day. At our latitude, weather normally comes in from the west, but every once in a while we'll get storms that come in from the east. That'll be the case later today as a storm backs in from the central Great Lakes Region or "Retrogrades" (moves from east to west). Take a look at the animation here - this system weak disturbance will linger through Monday and will have enough moisture to give us some light accumulations Sunday night in to early Monday. The one thing you will notice this afternoon is the increase winds. It will be quite a bit more breezy today and tomorrow compared to the last few days. There will, in fact, be a whiff of wind chill out there the next couple of days, which may take your breath away at times. I am still comparing every 'chilly' day to the cold snap of early January and, good news, we will be no where near that nor will be no where near that the rest of the winter season. Sure, it maybe cold from time to time, but we are pulling out of the deep freeze slowly but surely. By the way, spring is only 34 days away! Have a good Sunday.

Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Sunday: Cupid sightings likely. Some sun early with increasing clouds and light snow showers developing late. Breezy. High 20

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with light snow showers and light accumulations by morning. Low: 11

Monday (Presidents' Day): Lingering light snow early, still breezy. High: 22

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, feeling warmer. High: 24

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with scattered flurries and light snow showers developing late. High: 26

Thursday: More sunshine. High: 25

Friday: Mostly sunny. High: 26

Saturday: partly cloudy. A couple of flakes possible. High: 25

Thinking Warm Thoughts

2010-02-12T22:24:00.001-06:00

Happy Saturday everyone! I hope you were able to sleep in a bit today and are enjoying your day off, though, if you are a weekend warrior (like myself) I feel you! You may be a bit more tired today after watching the countless number of some of the most amazing athletes from around the world march into BC Place Stadium in Vancouver British Columbia. Unfortunately, the games are shadowed by shocking news of a 21 year old Georgian Luger who crashed a few hours before the opening ceremony. Interestingly, the Vancouver Luge/skeleton/Bob Sled race track is dubbed as the fastest course in the world, where speeds can climb to as high as the low to mid 90's! I have to admit, I went into the evening with a heavy heart, but to see the Georgians march into the stadium after such a tragic event and to have the 'world' give them a standing ovation was uplifting.

Nodar Kumaritashvili 1989 - 2010

Thinking Warm Thoughts

Have you been too cold lately? These numbers might help out a little. Don't be alarmed if you have a quick flashback to summer-like feelings or a warm tingling sensation when I read some of these numbers.

Normal High Temperatures:
Today - February 13th ..... 28 degrees
End of the Month - February 28th ..... 34 degrees
First day of Spring, March 20th, only 35 days away! ..... 42 degrees
End of April ..... 63 degrees
End of May ..... 75 degrees
End of June ..... 82 degrees

Did that help any? I like a good snow storm, but I am an even bigger fan of a rain/thunderstorm... I think I can smell the fresh rain now - SIGH

Here's a picture that I took one summer evening a few years back
I was pretty lucky to get this picture:

Back to reality
As we step back into our bodies and take a look outside, you'll see lots of ice and snow and when you put your nose into the wind, you'll have no doubt that it's still winter. However, at least the sun is feeling decent at this stage of the game.

A clipper will roll through just southwest of us today, keeping the accumulating snow well away from us. We may get a few flurries out of this one, but our next best chance of snow won't swing in until late Sunday. Even then, it appears our snow chances are limited.

Interested in Canadian Weather? Vancouver Weather?
Canada has a government weather office, see here

Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Saturday: Some morning fog, then a mix of clouds and sun with a little light snow possible. Accumulations likely in far southwest MN. High 24

Saturday night: Partly cloudy and chilly. Low: 7

Sunday: Cupid sightings likely. Increasing clouds with flurries and light snow showers developing late. High 22

Monday (Presidents' Day): Mix of clouds and sun with some light snow early. High: 23

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, feeling warmer. High: 23

Wednesday: Looking bright, with increasing clouds late. High: 24

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered light snow showers. High: 25

Friday: Mostly cloudy and a few flakes. High: 27

Clipper from Olympians

2010-02-11T22:11:00.000-06:00

Today is the day that I've been waiting for since the last Winter Olympics (Torino Italy) back in 2006. I grew up a hockey player and living in Minnesota all my life, I've come to love a number of other winter sports, so these next 15 days of sporting events is going to be a treat. Think about it... how many times can you see the some of the best athletes from around the globe compete for their country. It truly is an uplifting event that can take your mind off of the mundane, day to day, tasks that one goes through. Step back for a moment - enjoy the camaraderie , competition and the Canadian hospitality. Vancouver is a beautiful place with some of most interesting weather on Earth. Note, Whistler had a record 220" of snow in the month of November and should remain in the 'snow' during the games, but Vancouver just went through the warmest January on record with an average temperature of 44.9 degrees. How strange is that? For the first time in Olympic history, you will witness an opening and closing ceremony indoors because of the fear of rain. Daytime high temperatures will hover in the upper 40's to low 50's during the Olympic games with rain showers - don't be surprised when you here the commentators talking about rare rain showers during the Olympic events... Vancouver is a harbor city next to an ocean, so the climate is mild even in winter. In fact, Vancouver's average February temperature of 4.8 degrees Celsius and is the warmest city to ever host a Winter Olympics. By the way, 4.8 degrees Celsius is around 40 degrees Fahrenheit.

A Few Numbers/Conversions to Remember During the Olympics:

Now you can convert from Centigrade to Fahrenheit with these quick references...
10 degrees Celsius = 50 degrees Fahrenheit
0 degrees Celsius = 32 degrees Fahrenheit
-10 degrees Celsius = 14 degrees Fahrenheit

Also, remember that every 1 degree Celsius = 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit.

Minnesota Twins and Canada Native, Justin Morneau, Carried Olympic Torch Yesterday @ 3:45 CST
You can watch the LIVE Olympic Torch Relay coverage here

Interestingly, once the Olympic Torch reaches Vancouver, British Columbia, it will have traveled nearly 28,000 miles and have become the longest traveled torch relay in a single country history.

In Our Neck of the Woods
Flurries and light snow showers will be possible the next couple of days, but it appears the heaviest of the snow from the next (Canadian) Alberta Clipper will be in southwestern Minnesota:

Temperatures will fall slightly behind this next clipper system, but just a few degrees. Our high temperatures over the next 5 to 7 days will hover in the mid 20's, slightly below average. I still don't see any big warm ups or Arctic outbreaks in the near future. I do, however, see the sunshine in the extended forecast, which is much stronger now than it was just a few weeks ago. Go ahead, step outside for a few second when the sun is shining brightly... I guarantee you'll notice a dramatic difference in the intensity of the sun and I bet those few seconds in the sun will last, perhaps, for a few minutes. You may even get a hint of spring fever (I know I did).

Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a few flurries and scattered light snow showers. No accumulation expected. High 24

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Perhaps a flurry or two. Low: 8

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. A little light snow, accumulations likely in southwest MN. High 24

Sunday: Cupid sightings possible. Lingering clouds and flurries? High 21

Monday (Presidents' Day): Mix of clouds and sun with a flake or two. High: 22

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, slightly warmer. High: 23

Wednesday: Looking bright, slightly below normal temps. High: 25

Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 26

Snowiest Season on Record Out East

2010-02-10T21:12:00.000-06:00

Just for a moment, imagine yourself having to shovel and scoot around town after just going through two major winter storms with as much as 4 feet of fresh snow just under a weeks time. Also imagine the second storm blowing the new snow around at 50mph to 60mph into 10 foot snow drifts! Wouldn't that be something? I have to admit, after watching live coverage of the events unfolding out east yesterday, I was a little jealous to see such an extreme weather event. At times, blizzard conditions dropped visibilities to just a few feet for places around the Megalopolis of Baltimore, Washington D.C., New York and Philadelphia. Speaking of which, those locations just set the all-time snowiest seasons on record after this latest storm.

Records Fall This Winter Season
Take a gander at some of these impressive numbers. Note that D.C. and Baltimore have had a snowier winter than St. Cloud; Duluth; Buffalo, NY and Anchorage, AK so far this season.

Baltimore Washington International Airport as of yesterday afternoon had seasonal snow total a little over 72" beating the old record of 62.5" set in 1995-96. Records go back to 1893.

Washington Dulles International Airport as of Tuesday had a seasonal snow total of 63.5" beating the old record of 61.9" set in 1995-96.

Washington Reagan National Airport as of yesterday afternoon topped the snowiest season on record of 54.4" which was previously set in 1898-99.

Philadelphia International Airport as of yesterday evening, recorded 14" of new snow putting their seasonal snow total at 70.3" and above the snowiest season on record of 65.5" previously set in 1995-96

Proof in Pictures

Storm on Satellite

Closer to Home

We remain quiet through the day today, but clouds will be increasing this afternoon in advance of our next clipper system. Waking up tomorrow there may be a light coating of fluff on the ground, but it'll be pretty minor. Flurries and light snow chances will continue Friday and early Saturday before we clear out on Valentine's Day Sunday. The image below shows the potential snowfall through Saturday.

Looking ahead, temperatures will hover in the mid 20's for daytime highs next week. I don't see any major cold snaps or dramatic heat waves in the extended forecast. I'll keep peering into the crystal ball... until then, have a good Thursday.

Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Thursday: Chilly start. Increasing clouds, a few flurries possible late. High: 19

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with a little light snow and not as cold. Low: 10

Friday: Mostly cloudy with light snow showers. High 25

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, a little light snow. High 25

Sunday: Cupid sightings possible, more sunshine. High 23

Monday (Presidents' Day): Threat of a mostly blue sky. High: 24

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, slightly warmer. High: 24

Wednesday: Looking bright, slightly below normal temps. High: 25

Back to Normal (Snowfall)

2010-02-09T21:17:00.001-06:00

A quick story for you... Yesterday, I was surfing the web, looking at the latest snow totals across Minnesota when I heard my SKYPE phone ring and who was it? It was my grandmother who called to verbally and visually complain to me about how she dislikes all this snow we've been getting. She asked if I could do something about it because she was sick of shoveling. First of all, I can't believe that my grandmother is still insists on shoveling her driveway at her age and secondly, I can't believe my grandmother knows how to SKYPE. How cool is that! I give her a lot of credit for doing the things she does. She has never had her drivers license, forcing her to walk to the grocery store, to church every Sunday and to her many different community volunteering events, even during the bitterly cold Minnesota winter days. You go Gramma, keep it up!

Our multi-day storm started on Sunday and wrapped up early Tuesday, which gave the MSP Airport officially 5.6" putting us 1.3" above normal snowfall for the season. The range across the metro was around 4" to 5" on the northeast side to as much as 8" to 11" on the southwest side. The biggest snowfall report I saw was 11.5" 9 miles SW of Starbuck in Pope county. Take a look at the snowfall map and other snowfall reports below.

Storm Total Snowfall Map

Storm Total Snowfall Reports

...STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL REPORTS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

WE THANK OUR COOP AND COCORAHS OBSERVERS...TRAINED SPOTTERS AND
PARTNERS FOR THE FOLLOWING PRELIMINARY STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL REPORTS.


SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME
------  -----------------------  --  --------------   -------
11.50   9 SW STARBUCK            MN  POPE             0949 AM
11.00   GLENWOOD                 MN  POPE             0515 PM
11.00   FARIBAULT                MN  RICE             0800 AM
10.00   ELLENDALE                MN  STEELE           0645 AM
10.00   NEW MARKET               MN  SCOTT            0728 PM
9.80   LAKEVILLE                MN  DAKOTA           0922 AM
9.80   LONG LAKE                MN  HENNEPIN         0800 AM
9.70   LITCHFIELD               MN  MEEKER           0800 AM
9.70   1 NNW COLD SPRING        MN  STEARNS          0800 AM
9.50   MURDOCK                  MN  SWIFT            0812 AM
9.50   3 N KIMBALL              MN  STEARNS          0800 AM
9.50   3 SE ALBERT LEA          MN  FREEBORN         0800 AM
9.50   MINNETRISTA              MN  HENNEPIN         0800 AM
9.50   MEDINA                   MN  HENNEPIN         0755 AM
9.30   BLOOMINGTON              MN  HENNEPIN         0808 AM
9.00   CARLOS                   MN  DOUGLAS          0812 AM
9.00   3 SSW BURNSVILLE         MN  DAKOTA           0515 PM
9.30   2 W PRIOR LAKE           MN  SCOTT            0800 AM
9.10   1 E OWATONNA             MN  STEELE           0800 AM
8.80   HAMBURG                  MN  CARVER           0800 AM
8.50   1 W HUTCHINSON           MN  MCLEOD           0800 AM
8.40   RAMSEY                   MN  ANOKA            0922 AM
8.30   WACONIA                  MN  CARVER           0800 AM
8.20   1 SSW JORDAN             MN  SCOTT            0800 AM
8.10   2 NE BUFFALO             MN  WRIGHT           0800 AM
8.00   MANKATO                  MN  BLUE EARTH       0932 AM
8.00   WELLS                    MN  FARIBAULT        0800 AM
8.00   FAIRMONT                 MN  MARTIN           0800 AM
8.00   KIESTER                  MN  FARIBAULT        0720 AM
7.80   3 ENE MONTGOMERY         MN  RICE             0800 AM
7.80   1 SSW LONSDALE           MN  RICE             0800 AM
7.80   1 SE HENDERSON           MN  LE SUEUR         0800 AM
7.50   RENVILLE                 MN  RENVILLE         0828 AM
7.50   EDINA                    MN  HENNEPIN         0934 AM
7.50   WINNEBAGO                MN  FARIBAULT        0800 AM
7.50   WATERTOWN                MN  CARVER           0743 AM
7.30   NEW HOPE                 MN  HENNEPIN         0638 AM
7.00   DASSEL                   MN  MEEKER           0800 AM
7.00   1 W CARVER               MN  CARVER           0800 AM
7.00   3 ENE SILVER CREEK       MN  WRIGHT           0414 PM
6.80   ALBANY                   MN  STEARNS          0452 AM
6.70   WOODBURY                 MN  WASHINGTON       1039 AM
6.70   5 NW MINNEAPOLIS         MN  HENNEPIN         0800 AM
6.60   ST PETER                 MN  NICOLLET         0800 AM
6.50   SAUK RAPIDS              MN  BENTON           0713 AM
6.50   RAMSEY                   MN  ANOKA            0607 PM
6.40   FRIDLEY                  MN  ANOKA            0848 AM
6.40   MORRIS                   MN  STEVENS          0800 AM
6.20   ST CLOUD SCSU            MN  STEARNS          0800 AM
6.20   NORTH ST PAUL            MN  RAMSEY           0842 AM
6.00   MORGAN                   MN  REDWOOD          0800 AM
6.00   BLUE EARTH               MN  FARIBAULT        0800 AM
5.60   MINNEAPOLIS ST PAUL APT  MN  HENNEPIN         0600 AM
5.50   SLEEPY EYE               MN  BROWN            0849 AM
5.50   MELROSE                  MN  STEARNS          0800 AM
5.50   5 W ST CLOUD             MN  STEARNS          0800 AM
5.50   RED WING                 MN  GOODHUE          0743 AM
5.50   LITTLE FALLS             MN  MORRISON         0650 AM
5.40   RICHFIELD                MN  HENNEPIN         0745 AM
5.10   4 SE RED WING            MN  GOODHUE          0800 AM
5.00   HASTINGS                 MN  DAKOTA           0742 AM
5.00   ST CLOUD                 MN  STEARNS          0600 AM
4.50   ELK RIVER                MN  SHERBURNE        0800 AM
4.50   3 WSW PRINCETON          MN  SHERBURNE        0800 AM
4.50   2 SSW CAMBRIDGE          MN  ISANTI           0629 AM
4.20   REDWOOD FALLS            MN  REDWOOD          0800 AM
4.20   MILACA                   MN  MILLE LACS       0800 AM
4.20   LONG PRAIRIE             MN  TODD             0800 AM
4.00   3 ESE LAKE ELMO          MN  WASHINGTON       0800 AM
4.00   1 N ANDOVER              MN  ANOKA            0800 AM
4.00   2 NNW COON RAPIDS        MN  ANOKA            0800 AM
3.80   1 NW COTTAGE GROVE       MN  WASHINGTON       0800 AM
3.50   1 ESE MILROY             MN  REDWOOD          0800 AM
2.80   7 NNW OGILVIE            MN  KANABEC          1111 AM
2.00   DURAND                   WI  PEPIN            0800 AM
2.00   BALDWIN                  WI  ST. CROIX        0800 AM
1.80   1 NE LAKELAND SHORES     MN  WASHINGTON       0800 AM
1.60   3 NE RUSH CITY           MN  CHISAGO          0800 AM
1.40   CHIPPEWA FALLS           WI  CHIPPEWA         0800 AM
1.40   AUGUSTA                  WI  EAU CLAIRE       0800 AM
1.10   STANLEY                  WI  CHIPPEWA         0800 AM
1.10   EAU CLAIRE               WI  EAU CLAIRE       0600 AM
1.00   CUMBERLAND               WI  BARRON           0800 AM
1.00   BLOOMER                  WI  CHIPPEWA         0800 AM

Cold and Quiet Until Friday
The next two days will be rather quiet as a cold Canadian high sinks south of the international border. Temperature readings will drop below normal and overnight lows will dip into the sub-zero range again Thursday morning. The cold air is dry, so there will be plenty of sunshine. Don't forget the shades as you head out the door, that fresh snow will be darn bright and since we haven't seen the sun in a few days, it'll seem even brighter. Our next snow chance doesn't swing in until Friday and Saturday. A light coating of fluff may be possible then, but that Alberta Clipper could swerve around us like Lindsay Vonn cutting around the last gate before the finish line on her way to her 4th Gold Medal of the 2010 Winter Olympics, so we'll keep an eye on it. Tune in tomorrow for weather facts about the Olympic games and the 2010 host city Vancouver, Canada.

Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Wednesday: Cold sunshine. High: 18

Wednesday Night: Clear, calm and quiet... COLD too. Low: -1

Thursday: Chilly start. Increasing clouds, light snow developing late. High: 20

Friday: Mostly cloudy with light snow showers. High 24

Saturday: Partly sunny, light snow possible. High 26

Sunday: Partly cloudy and quiet. High 21

Monday (Presidents' Day): Threat of a mostly blue sky. High: 23

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, slightly warmer. High: 26

Twin Cities Snow Bowl XLIV Winding Down

2010-02-08T20:06:00.000-06:00

The good, the bad and the ugly... The good news is that we freshened up that snow pack out there. The fluffy snow will be great for any outdoor activities that you have planned this week that involves snow f- skiing, snowmobiling, sledding, snow angels, etc. (let me know if you have any other activities that begin with the letter "S") - get out there and enjoy it before it's gone, we all know the weather can change rapidly around here. The bad news is that our commute will likely be slow and white-knuckleish for one more day. The afternoon drive will be much better than the slippery drive in to work or school. Hang in there, it'll be much better tomorrow. The ugly side to most every winter storm is the bitter blast after the fact, that too will come to reality, but we're not expecting readings like what we had back in early January - WHEW! It'll be cold, but not terribly cold. Attention getting? Yes. By Wednesday and Thursday morning, you'll have no doubt that it's still winter. Here, take a look at the statewide low temperatures over the next couple of days - BRR!

Low Temps on Wednesday:

Low Temps on Thursday

Fresh Snow Aids Cooling Conditions
Take a look a the images below, they explain why it tends to be so much colder after a newly laid snow pack. Not only is it just plain old cold, but "Albedo" has a big impact the surface temperatures by reflecting sunlight back to space. Fresh snow is one of the highest natural reflecting surfaces causing temperatures to much colder than they otherwise would be.

You may have to study this graphic a little to understand it:

Here's a table that might help out:

Here's proof of the fresh snow - take a look at SOME of the snowfall reports across the state, which are still coming in:

...UPDATED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALLS SO FAR...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH
LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME
------  -----------------------  --  --------------   -------
11.00   GLENWOOD                 MN  POPE             0515 PM
9.50   KIMBALL                  MN  STEARNS          0410 PM
              5.5 INCHES HAVE FALLEN SINCE 7 AM THIS
              MORNING.
9.00   3 SSW BURNSVILLE         MN  DAKOTA           0515 PM
              STORM TOTAL THUS FAR.
8.00   NEW MARKET               MN  SCOTT            0235 PM
              STORM TOTAL. 3.5 INCHES HAVE FALLEN TODAY.
7.80   LAKEVILLE                MN  DAKOTA           0410 PM
7.40   ROCKFORD                 MN  HENNEPIN         0525 PM
              SO FAR
7.30   SW WASECA                MN  WASECA           0440 PM
              STORM TOTAL SINCE SUNDAY MORNING
7.00   WATERVILLE               MN  LE SUEUR         0356 PM
              SO FAR
6.80   1 ENE MINNESOTA LAKE     MN  FARIBAULT        0215 PM
              STORM TOTAL SO FAR. 4.5 INCHES HAVE FALLEN
              TODAY.
6.50   KIESTER                  MN  FARIBAULT        0346 PM
              SO FAR
6.30   NORTHFIELD               MN  RICE             0434 PM
6.00   CARVER                   MN  CARVER           0524 PM
              STORM TOTAL SO FAR. 3.3 INCHES HAVE FALLEN
              SINCE 7 AM.
6.00   3 ENE SILVER CREEK       MN  WRIGHT           0440 PM
              STORM TOTAL SINCE SUNDAY MORNING.
6.00   WINTHROP                 MN  SIBLEY           0431 PM
6.00   PRIOR LAKE               MN  SCOTT            0137 PM
5.80   RAMSEY                   MN  ANOKA            0539 PM
5.50   WOODBURY                 MN  WASHINGTON       0500 PM
5.00   MANKATO                  MN  BLUE EARTH       0520 PM
              KEYC TV STATION. STORM TOTAL SO FAR.
4.50   LITCHFIELD               MN  MEEKER           0250 PM
              STORM TOTAL SINCE 1130 PM MON NIGHT
3.80   HASTINGS                 MN  DAKOTA           0516 PM
              STORM TOTAL SO FAR.
2.00   ANDOVER                  MN  ANOKA            0235 PM

Looking Ahead

Sunshine and colder temperatures will rule mid-week, a slight chance of light snow slides in on Friday and a faintly noticeable warming trend will follow into the somewhat sunnier weekend. Here's the specific extended forecast below.

Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Tuesday: Scattered light snow showers gradually ending, light coating possible. High: 18

Tuesday Night: Becoming partly cloudy and cold. Low: 4

Wednesday: Partly cloudy and chilly. High: 17

Thursday: Mix of clouds and sun, quiet. High: 18

Friday: Partly sunny, slight chance of light snow. High 23

Saturday: Partly cloudy, minor set back in the temperature department. High 20

Sunday: Partly cloudy and warmer. High 23

Monday: Threat of a mostly blue sky. High 25

STORM UPDATE - Monday Afternoon Update

2010-02-08T12:52:00.000-06:00

The long duration and steady light to moderate snow event will continue today with daytime snowfall accumulations of 2" to 3" or so likely by 6pm. Bringing the Sunday and Monday totals to around 3" to 5" in the Twin Cities (higher amounts on the SW side of the metro). Light snow will continue overnight Monday, with an additional 1" to 2" possible and up to an additional 1" Tuesday bringing the total storm total to 4" to 7" spread across the Twin Cities metro from Sunday through Tuesday night. If you thought Monday mornings commute was bad, try Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning... UGH. The hassle factor will be quite high, so plan accordingly and SLOW DOWN! This light and fluffy snow will ensure slick roads and white knuckle driving for another 24 to 36 hours... Hang in there, we'll get through this.

UPDATE Winter Storm Warning Continues

...SNOW CONTINUES MOST AREAS....


.SNOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WAS IN A BAND FROM WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NEAR
ALEXANDRIA AND MORRIS...TO WILLMAR AND HUTCHINSON...AND THE
SOUTHWEST AREAS OF TWIN CITIES...DOWN TO MANKATO AND ALBERT LEA.
THIS GENERAL TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES HAVE BEEN COMMON IN THESE AREAS.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OR DEVELOP...BACK INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SLIDES INTO
IOWA. THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL SEE CONTINUING SNOW OVERNIGHT...BUT
WITH DECREASING INTENSITY. IN ADDITION...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW AND VERY LOW VISIBILITIES.

THE HIGHER GRAND TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS STORM...EXPECTED
BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...WILL BE REALIZED FROM ALEXANDRIA SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS WILLMAR AND HUTCHINSON...AND FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA SINCE SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BETWEEN 8
AND 12 INCHES. THE TWIN CITIES METROPOLITAN AREA WILL LIKELY SEE
5 TO 9 INCH TOTALS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. FAR WESTERN
WISCONSIN IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE 2 TO 4 INCH TOTALS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY FOR ALEXANDRIA...LITCHFIELD...LITTLE
FALLS...ST CLOUD... AND WILLMAR. THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING
LASTS THROUGH NOON ON TUESDAY...INCLUDING A LARGE PORTION OF THE
TWIN CITIES METROPOLITAN AREA...AS WELL AS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA... INCLUDING ALBERT LEA...MANKATO...RED WING...AND
REDWOOD FALLS. THE WINTER STORM WARNING INCLUDES A LARGE PORTION
OF THE INTERSTATE 35...90...AND 94 CORRIDORS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
FOR PARTS OF FAR EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND FAR WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS INCLUDES THE FAR EASTERN TWIN CITIES METROPOLITAN
AREA... CAMBRIDGE...MENOMONIE...NEW RICHMOND...AND MORA.

Updated Winter Weather Advisory Map

Snowfall Reports So Far:

...|SNOW TOTALS 8 AM TIL NOON|...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.


SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME
------  -----------------------  --  --------------   -------
7.50   WILLMAR                  MN  KANDIYOHI        0839 AM
5.00   1 NE GREEN ISLE          MN  SIBLEY           1128 AM
               STORM TOTAL SINCE 6 PM SUN EVENING
5.00   6 NNE THORPE             MN  KANDIYOHI        1115 AM
               SO FAR
4.90   NORTH ST PAUL            MN  RAMSEY           1128 AM
4.70   MORRIS                   MN  STEVENS          0818 AM
               U OF M
4.50   PRIOR LAKE               MN  SCOTT            1018 AM
4.50   NEW MARKET               MN  SCOTT            0838 AM
4.50   3 SE ALBERT LEA          MN  FREEBORN         0808 AM
4.40   1 W HUTCHINSON           MN  MCLEOD           0814 AM
4.00   LITCHFIELD               MN  MEEKER           0901 AM
3.90   ROCKFORD                 MN  HENNEPIN         0905 AM
3.70   HAMBURG                  MN  CARVER           0818 AM
3.50   MANKATO                  MN  BLUE EARTH       1025 AM
               UPDATED 10 AM TOTAL
3.50   ST JAMES                 MN  WATONWAN         0949 AM
3.50   WATERTOWN                MN  CARVER           0949 AM
3.50   KIESTER                  MN  FARIBAULT        0918 AM
3.50   5 SW ST PAUL             MN  RAMSEY           0834 AM
3.50   2 SW PRIOR LAKE          MN  SCOTT            0801 AM
3.50   NNW COLD SPRING          MN  STEARNS          0801 AM
3.50   3 W OWATONNA             MN  STEELE           0801 AM
3.10   LAKEVILLE                MN  DAKOTA           0856 AM
3.10   NORTH ST PAUL            MN  RAMSEY           0814 AM
3.10   FRIDLEY                  MN  ANOKA            0801 AM
3.00   MANKATO                  MN  BLUE EARTH       0814 AM
2.20   7 NNW OGILVIE            MN  KANABEC          1213 PM
2.00   3 NE FARIBAULT           MN  RICE             1115 AM
               OVER LAST 2.5 HOURS STORM TOTAL 5.5 SO FAR
1.60   1 SSW LONSDALE           MN  RICE             0801 AM
1.50   5 N OGILVIE              MN  KANABEC          0801 AM
1.00   SPRINGFIELD              MN  BROWN            1209 PM
1.00   DURAND                   WI  PEPIN            0856 AM
1.00   3 WSW PRINCETON          MN  SHERBURNE        0801 AM
0.80   CONNORSVILLE             WI  DUNN             0900 AM
0.80   ROBERTS                  WI  ST. CROIX        0808 AM

Take a look at the snowfall map below. Computer models still put the heaviest of the accumulating snow just southwest of the I-94 corridor. Total accumulations from Sunday through late Tuesday will likely be around the 4" to 7" mark in the Twin Cities area with lighter amounts on the northeast side of town and heavier amounts on the west and southwestern side of town. Some spots around the Minnesota River Valley could get near 10".

To reiterate, this snow will not be a quick hitting event like the one that crippled the Mid-Atlantic states over the weekend. Rather, this will be a slow and steady event, which you will likely be able to stay on top of shoveling-wise. The commutes both today and tomorrow will not be great, but plan accordingly and drive slowly and all should be good.

Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Rest of Monday: Cloudy with light snow showers likely, daytime accumulations of 2" to 3" or so. High: 24

Monday Night: Light snow continues, an additional 1" or 2". Low: 15

Tuesday: Scattered light snow showers gradually ending, light coating possible. High: 18

Wednesday: Becoming partly cloudy. Chilly. High: 17

Thursday: Partly cloudy, slightly warmer. High: 18

Friday: Partly sunny, slight chance of light snow. High 22

Saturday: Partly cloudy, minor set back in the temperature department. High 18

Sunday: Partly cloudy and warmer. High 22

Slow and Steady to Shovelable Levels

2010-02-07T21:10:00.000-06:00

Here's the latest winter weather headlines from the National Weather Service

Winter Storm Warning

...LONG LASTING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...


.A TWO TO TWO AND A HALF DAY SNOWFALL EVENT...WITH SOME
COMMUNITIES EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS...WILL
IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE
LENGTHY DURATION OF THE SNOW...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM HAS THE
LIKELIHOOD TO PRODUCE A BROAD SWATH OF SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 11
INCHES OVER A TWO DAY PERIOD. THE LARGEST SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO
11 INCHES...ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM NEAR ALEXANDRIA AND
MORRIS...SOUTHWARD TO LITCHFIELD AND WILLMAR...TO MANKATO...ALBERT
LEA AND FAIRMONT. THE WEST SIDE OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO WILL ALSO
BE IN THE PATH OF SOME OF THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA...INCLUDING PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL SEE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF
SNOW.

EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SPREAD FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT...AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT SNOW MAY NOT DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY
MORNING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE
DAKOTAS BY EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE SWINGING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
IOWA AND INTO ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT IS THE PRIME
REASON OF THE LONG DURATION SNOWFALL AND THE HEAVIER TOTAL
AMOUNTS.

NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF FAR WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WHICH WOULD
CAUSE TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO FURTHER DETERIORATE.

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS INCLUDES ALEXANDRIA...LITCHFIELD...LITTLE FALLS...WILLMAR...
MORRIS...THE WESTERN TWIN CITIES...AND SOUTHWARD TO
MANKATO...ALBERT LEA AND FAIRMONT. THIS INCLUDES THE INTERSTATE 94
CORRIDOR AND PARTS OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THIS INCLUDES CANBY...MADISON...ONAMIA...CAMBRIDGE...FOREST
LAKE...BALSAM LAKE...NEW RICHMOND...AND DURAND.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS AND LIKELY EXPANSION OF WARNINGS
ON THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM.

Updated Winter Weather Advisory Map

The latest computer runs have brought lighter amounts of precipitation into the area, but still puts the heaviest of the slowly accumulating snow just southwest of the I-94 corridor. Total accumulations from Sunday through late Tuesday will likely be around the 4" to 6" mark in the Twin Cities area with lighter amounts on the northeast side of town and heavier amounts on the west and southwestern side of town. Some spots on the south side of the I-94 corridor from Alexandria to Rochester could still see 6" plus through Tuesday evening.

To reiterate, this snow will not be a quick hitting event like the one that crippled the Mid-Atlantic states over the weekend. Rather, this will be a slow and steady event, which you will likely be able to stay on top of shoveling-wise. The commutes both today and tomorrow will not be great, but plan accordingly and drive slowly and all should be good.

Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Monday: Cloudy with light snow showers likely, an additional 1" to 3" or so possible. High: 24

Monday Night: Light snow continues, an additional 1" or 2". Low: 15

Tuesday: Scattered light snow showers gradually ending, light coating possible. High: 18

Wednesday: Becoming partly cloudy. Chilly. High: 17

Thursday: Partly cloudy, slightly warmer. High: 18

Friday: Partly sunny, slight chance of light snow. High 22

Saturday: Partly cloudy, minor set back in the temperature department. High 18

Sunday: Partly cloudy and warmer. High 22

Olympic-Sized Snow in DC

2010-02-06T21:47:00.000-06:00

I have to admit, I was a little faked out yesterday. I thought for a VERY brief moment that I saw lightning in the distance, but quickly noticed fireworks above the bare treetops, not an all too common site for February, but when you 'think' you see lightning in the middle of winter when the air temperature is around 20 degrees, you know you have a serious case of SDS or "Supercell Deprivation Syndrome" - it's a pretty legit syndrome that many in the storm chaser community go through ever winter at about this time, though, for some... it sets in much sooner. See here if you suffer from SDS - thanks to www.texastailchasers.com for that write-up.

Today is a big day... Yes, get ready for Puppy Bowl VI complete with a kitten half time show! If you're still sulking about the Vikings loss, the Puppy Bowl might be just as exciting as the Super Bowl this year. For the rest of you who can stomach Miami, FL without the purple and gold present - you should be in for a good show. Indianapolis Colts take on the New Orleans Saints at 6:25pm ET with the Colts the favorite by a field goal. I guess I'll go with Who Dat by a field goal in OT.

Olympic-Size Snow in DC
Take a look at the picture below of Bethesda, MD where at least 20" of snow fell across a great deal of the Mid-Atlantic States. Hundreds of thousands of people are without power and transportation came to a near stand-still. All flights from Reagan National and Dulles were canceled "Until further notice" on Saturday. Here are some snowfall reports from earlier on Saturday in the DC area where 20" to 30" amounts were very common.

Significant Snow Potential for Central MN
Here's the latest Winter Weather Headlines from the National Weather Service for the the Twin Cities:

Winter Storm Watch

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...


.A LONG PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LONG DURATION
OF SNOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF
10 INCHES OVER THE TWO DAY PERIOD. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NEAR ALEXANDRIA AND LITTLE FALLS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEST SIDE OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...ALTHOUGH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN
EXCESS OF 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE SNOW
WILL BE PRODUCED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE SWINGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA AND ILLINOIS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP
TO INTENSIFY A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THESE FEATURES WILL WORK IN CONCERT TO PRODUCE THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WHICH
WILL CAUSE TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO FURTHER DETERIORATE.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MONTEVIDEO TO LITCHFIELD AND ALONG AND WEST
OF A LITCHFIELD...TO SAINT CLOUD...TO LITTLE FALLS LINE HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR FROM SAINT CLOUD TO ALEXANDRIA.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
CONTINUES FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35... AND INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF HUTCHINSON...THE
TWIN CITIES METRO AREA....AND SAINT PETER. FINALLY...A WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA FOR SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
NEW ULM...TO MANKATO...TO OWATONNA LINE. THIS INCLUDES THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL TRACK...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHERE THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL OCCUR. STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM.

Here's a quick gander at how much snow could pile up over the next few days (thru Tuesday) - note the heaviest of the snow setting up show over the I-94 corridor. Keep in mind that this will not be a quick hitting snow, rather a long duration snow event where snow amounts will likely pile up to more than inconvenient levels if you don't stay on top of the situation. However, Monday morning commute is sure to be a white knuckle event, so plan ahead.

Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Sunday: Flurries and light snow showers developing, about 1/2" of powder possible late in the day. High: 26

Tonight: Steadier light snow developing, another 1" to 2" possible overnight. Low: 19

Monday: Cloudy with light snow showers likely, an additional 1" to 3" or so possible. Additional light accumulations likely overnight. High: 24

Tuesday: Scattered light snow showers gradually ending, light coating possible. High: 21

Wednesday: Decreasing clouds, becoming partly cloudy and chilly. High: 19

Thursday: Partly cloudy, slightly warmer. High: 20

Friday: Partly sunny, a little warmer yet. High 23

Saturday: Partly cloudy, minor set back in the temperature department. High 20

Say It Ain't Snow

2010-02-05T23:27:00.000-06:00

Well, I finally caught up with my shoveling. I've been neglecting it for a few days and unfortunately, it seems I've waited too long because the junk at the end of the driveway turned into a big block of ice. The plow has been by a few times to add to the rigid, wintry mess and I'm thinking it's a lost cause at this point. I don't know about you, but I'll probably have to wait until the end of winter to uncover the bottom of the driveway. For those of you who take pride in having a nicely manicured driveway/walkway keep those shovels handy, flurries and light snow showers will continue off and on through the weekend, but won't really cause much of a commotion until late Sunday - Super Bowl Sunday.

The image below shows the accumulated snowfall through Monday night. Firstly, note the bulls eye over Washington DC - There could isolated amounts of 30" by the end of the weekend. This will be quite an event, bringing the city to a stand-still. At least it's happening over the weekend... although, I think there will still be some issues into the early part of next week. We are likely to see some light accumulations here in Minnesota, enough to shovel and plow again, but it'll be coming over the span of a few days, unlike that of the quick hitting heavy snow out east.

QPF - Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
This is the QPF forecast from NOAA, which shows the accumulated liquid through Wednesday night. This extended model shows nearly 0.70" liquid (there will be some wiggle room on that number), but temperatures will be cold enough this next week for all snow. A quick a dirty rule of thumb for snow forecasting is 10:1 - which means that for every 1" of liquid water, you'd have 10" of snow. If you do the math on that 0.70" of liquid - you get some fairly decent accumulations. Again, these are just preliminary numbers, though, one thing that might keep the hassle factor lower with this potential snow is that the snow is likely to fall in increments of an 1" or 2" over a few day period. Keeping up with the snow on roadways and such shouldn't be a major ordeal.

A Quick Side
I thought this was kind of neat - thought you'd enjoy it. This is a satellite (US military’s DMSP - 18 weather satellite) image of a Northern Lights display over northern Europe from earlier this week – note the yellow band at the top of the picture – that’s it! Cool, huh?

Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Mostly cloudy, a few flurries possible. High: 27

Tonight: Cloudy with a few flakes. Low: 15

Sunday: Another period of light snow, about 1" of powder possible during the day. Steadier light snow developing overnight, another 1" to 2" possible. High: 24

Monday: Cloudy with light snow showers likely, light accumulations possible. High: 21

Tuesday: Cloudy with a chance of snow. High: 20

Wednesday: Decreasing clouds. High: 19

Thursday: Partly cloudy and chilly. High: 17

Friday: Partly sunny, slightly warmer. High 23

Winter Lite

2010-02-04T22:18:00.001-06:00

Lately it seems that most (but not all) of our Minnesota winters have been neutered. De-fanged. Immunized against old-fashioned, tire-spinning, headline-grabbing, school-closing, water-cooler-bragging snowstorms. When it snows now (with a few notable exceptions, like the Christmas Day storm) it tends to be in dribs and drabs: an inch here, 2 or 3 sloppy inches there. While Washington D.C. is bracing for a cool foot (or two) of new snow by Saturday evening WE are under a winter weather advisory for a MIX of rain, ice and snow. To make matters worse we had an air pollution advisory yesterday. Wait: rain, ice and smog in early February - in Minnesota? What have we become: Sacramento? Even the alleged experts can't say (with anything approaching 100% certainty) that big, wet, sloppy storms detouring well south of Minnesota much of the winter is a symptom of El Nino. It is consistent with an El Nino winter, when storms tend to be pushed farther south, resulting in cooler, stormier conditions for the deep south and east coast, while the northern tier states trend drier (and milder). The milder part is still very much up in the air. The Climate Center folks at NOAA are convinced that February will wind up warmer than normal, and for that matter so will the next 3 months, through the end of April. I'm not convinced, not yet. Looking out the next 2 weeks or so temperatures will run a good 10 degrees below average, nothing even remotely resembling a real warm front is shaping up through the third week of February. Spring fever? Give it 8 weeks, minimum. Of COURSE it will inevitably snow on the new Twins outdoor stadium, and that (in turn) will make national news, which will just reinforce the old, tired image of Minnesota as a frozen wasteland frequented by Prince and Garrison Keillor. That in turn will keep our population stable and prevent us from becoming "L.A with lakes", which is a very good thing for all of us. Just a theory. We'll see.

One Mixed-Up Map. Over 16" for Baltimore and Washington, maybe 1-2" for the Twin Cities, 2-3" for St. Cloud, over 6" for far western Minnesota and much of North Dakota.

The Stormy Details. Check out the latest watches, warnings, advisories from NOAA, winter weather advisories for much of Minnesota, but full blown winter storm warnings from Indianapolis to Columbus, Philadelphia and Washington D.C. Blizzard warnings are posted for Delaware and much of New Jersey for near white-out conditions late tonight and Saturday. For the latest (clickable) watches and warnings, click here for an interactive map from NOAA.

We're just getting brushed, side-swiped by the mega-storm now churning toward Washington D.C., where 27" of snow has already piled up - that number will be closer to 40" by Sunday. How did that happen? A sloppy inch or two is possible today, expect a white-knuckle morning commute, but the steadiest snow should taper off a bit for the drive home later today. Freeways that have been successfully treated by MnDOT should be mostly wet and slushy, but watch the side streets and alleys - they may be snow-covered and very icy. A push of drier air approaching from the Great Lakes will cause flurries to taper Saturday, but a southbound cold front whips up another period of light, powdery snow Sunday as temperatures fall through the 20s - I could see an inch, maybe 2" in a few towns. It still looks cold the first half of next week, not quite as numbing as it appeared yesterday at this time. Let's just say the Groundhog had the right idea. 6 more weeks of winter? Count on it.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Light snow, about 1-2", tapering to mostly flurries by late afternoon. Slippery roads. Winds: E 10-15. High: 28

Tonight: Lingering clouds, few flakes around town. Low: near 20

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, a few flurries possible. High: 26

Sunday: Another period of light snow, about 1" of powder possible. High: 23

Monday: Flurries taper, feeling colder again. High: 20

Tuesday: More clouds than sun, more flurries. High: 16

Wednesday: Peeks of sun, colder than average. High: 17

Thursday: Partly sunny and chilly. High: 18

A couple "plowable" events

2010-02-03T21:50:00.001-06:00

Washington D.C. has already seen nearly 30" of snow, 18" above average to-date, and another 10" is on the way by Saturday. Keep in mind that an INCH is a big deal in our nation's capital, capable of instilling dread, closing schools - inciting a run on area grocery stores in a mad-mass panic. I'm really not exaggerating. There is nothing more baffling (and on some level, humorous) than being in D.C. before a snow "event". The locals just go nuts. Imagine how they're feeling tonight, doing everything but barricading the doors and retreating to their basements. Imagine how safe they'd feel up here on the tundra, where the snow will fall lightly, in reasonable dribs and drabs. No mega-storms in sight, but a couple of minor "plowable" events are shaping up: Friday, again on Sunday. No headline-generating storms, but the local newscasts will still have a reporter stationed outdoors in the first 5 minutes of the newscast, reporting on icy conditions, assorted fender-benders, turning a minor snowfall into "breaking news". I know of what I speak. Been there. Done that. I'll be the first to admit that a lousy inch of slush, falling at the wrong time and the right place can cause a world of hurt. An inch! That's why NOAA has started to rate snowstorms, just like tornadoes and hurricanes, on a similar scale, from 1 to 5. The ratings are based not only on the AMOUNT of expected snow, but the presence of ice, high winds, low visibility, cold temperatures (which make it tougher for road crews to melt snow on major highways with salt & sand) and the time of day the storm actually hits. It's not a bad idea, and it may even catch on over time, something we've been considering adding to our daily forecasts.

Clipped again. Here is the latest (NAM) model prediction for snowfall through Friday night. Much of the area is forecast to pick up at least 2" of wet, slushy snow, with a few 3"+ amounts south/west of I-94. Extreme southwestern MN may see as much as 3-6" of wet snow from Friday's fast-moving clipper.

Advisories and watches. The latest from NOAA, showing a winter weather advisory extending into southwestern MN, where some 3-6" snowfall amounts are possible by Friday night. The farther north/east you travel across Minnesota the lesser the snowfall amounts. Check out the winter storm watch posted from Indianapolis to Columbus and Washington D.C., where some 6-12" amounts are possible by Saturday. Want to see a (big) pile of snow? Drive southeast - quickly. To check out an interactive map with the latest watches/warnings and radar check out this (very cool) URL from Ham Weather (a division of WeatherNation). Yep, I'm a little biased.

It's probably a better idea, a bit more practical than NAMING winter storms. The newspaper up in Grand Forks did that back in the 70s and 80s, naming winter storms after famous hockey players and local politicians. The thought behind this gimmick: make the storms more "memorable", easier to track - avoid confusion when there are multiple storms in the forecast. Not sure if people would respond to "Winter Storm Bubba" but it sure is a fascinating idea. For now we'll that one pass...

America the snow-covered. Check out all the snow on the ground, as far south as northern Texas, Arkansas and the hills of northern Georgia. We feel their cold, crystalline pain, don't we?

The rumors are true: a little freezing drizzle may fall later today as temperatures climb through the 20s to near 30. A period of steadier snow is likely Thursday night and Friday, with a potential for 2-3" of wet, slushy snow from St. Cloud to the Twin Cities by the dinner hour Friday, enough to gum up traffic and complicate your Friday commute. But with temperatures approaching 30 most freeways and major roads will probably be wet/slushy, while side streets could be snow-covered and very slippery. The mercury drops steadily through the teens over the weekend; a reinforcing clipper, marking the leading edge of subzero air, whipping up light, powdery snow - similar to what fell on Monday. Another inch or two of fluff may accumulate Monday, but cold sun returns for much of Monday-Tuesday of next week, with at least 3-4 subzero nights and daytime highs 10-15 degrees below average. Terrific. The good news: the next outbreak of Canadian air won't stick around for long. A Pacific breeze kicks in the latter half of next week, meaning a quick rebound into the 20s by Wednesday or Thursday.

An icy scenario? A think layer of warm air aloft may turn light snow over to a period of freezing drizzle for a time today, drizzle freezing on-contact with cold surfaces. Any treated roads/freeways will probably be mostly-wet, but watch the secondary roads - they may be quite icy by afternoon/evening, followed by a changeover to mostly snow by tonight.
An end to the temperature honeymoon. Two more days of highs in the upper 20s to near 30, and then a temperature-tumble kicks in this weekend, stabilizing by early next week with some single digit highs and at least 3-4 subzero nights from Sunday through Wednesday. One step forward, two steps back...
A couple of "snow events." Disclaimer/caveat: clippers are notoriously fickle, but the models are in fairly good agreement that we'll see at least a couple inches of slush by Friday, another inch or two of powdery snow on Sunday as much colder air arrives.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Overcast, a little freezing drizzle may ice up some roads. Winds: SE 5-10. High: near 30

Tonight: A period of wet snow likely, 1-2" by morning. Low: 25

Friday: Light snow, totals of 2-3" slush possible by Friday afternoon. High: 29

Saturday: Better travel, mostly cloudy and colder with flurries. High: 18

Sunday: Steadier snow (light/powdery). Potential for 1-2" of additional snow. High: 15

Monday: Cold sun returns. High: 7

Tuesday: Numbing start, blue sky - dry sky. Low: -7. High: 8

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, "milder" again. High: 25

Happy to be "average"

2010-02-02T21:20:00.002-06:00

Latest Snow Cover. Check out how much more snow is on the ground south of the Twin Cities than in the immediate metro area. The dark blue shaded counties have as much as 10-14" of snow, compared to 8-12" in the immediate Twin Cities area.

Average high in the Twin Cities for Feb. 3: 24 F. Today's predicted high: 25.

We're in-between. The worst of winter (in terms of hours below zero) are behind us. Yet it's way too early to even contemplate spring (although daydreaming about spring break is encouraged. If you've lived in Minnesota longer than 1 winter you know the cold, cruel truth: much of February and March is one step forward, two steps back. Temperatures climb to "average" today, a recognition of the fact that the sun is climbing ever-higher into the southern sky. In fact today the sun is as high in the sky as it was back on November 9, when the high in the Twin Cities was a balmy 61. The reason it's so much colder in early February: all that snow on the ground across Canada and the northern third of the USA. It acts as a "refrigerant", chilling the air from below, keeping us 20-25 degrees colder than we would be otherwise. Until we lose the snow (late March, early April, your guess is as good as mine) the sun's energy will go into melting snow instead of heating up the air, limiting just how mild we can get. That said, the prevailing jet stream winds make a huge difference. Are prevailing winds originating from the Yukon or Vancouver? For at least the next 36-48 hours you'll feel a distinct Pacific influence, coaxing the mercury well into the 20s to near 30 in some Minnesota towns. Hardly spring fever, but a baby-step in the right direction.

Snowfall potential.

Models are still hinting at a coating to 1" of slushy snow (mixed with a little freezing drizzle at times) by Friday. This will be a heavier, wetter snow, nothing like the fluffy, powdery snow that fell on Monday. For a final list of snowfall amounts from Monday's "storm" (the old timers are laughing now) see below. Flurries taper early Saturday before another surge of light snow arrives Sunday and Monday, this time light, fluffy and powdery, as temperatures fall through the teens. That could mean more spin-outs and fender-benders the latter half of the weekend, even though the models are only printing out 1-2" of snow Sunday and Sunday night. The mercury tumbles early next week, at least 3-4 days with highs in the teens, low in single digits to just below zero. The bottom line: this next cold snap won't be as harsh as what we just muddled through, nothing like the first third of January, when we shivered through at least one night of -25 F. air temperature. The good news: we warm up fairly rapidly the latter half of next week, more 20s by Thursday/Friday, even some low 30s by the second weekend of February. Not exactly spring fever, but Old Man Winter shows some definite signs of mellowing in the weeks to come.

1-2" of Minnesota powder next Sunday - Monday? Here's the GFS model output valid Sunday evening at 7 pm, showing expected snowfall from 1 pm to 7 pm - hinting at the heaviest amounts over southern MN, south of the Minnesota River. With temperatures in the teens this should be a light, fluffy, powdery snow - similar to Monday's snowfall. Translation: more ice & snow-covered roads and a greater chance of traffic hassles.

No big storms, no headline-grabbing outbreaks of numbing air, just a nuisance snow Friday, maybe an inch or two of new snow Sunday into Monday morning to cover up the grit and grime. With Monday's fresh coating of white snow conditions are pretty good statewide, and they're about to get a bit better. Not exactly Aspen/Snowmass conditions, but not bad at all for Minnesota.

How to survive an earthquake. Along with hurricanes, this is one of the few natural disasters Minnesotans DO NOT have to worry about! But many of us travel to earthquake-prone regions, like California and the Pacific Rim. Even Seattle and Memphis are vulnerable to potentially devastating quakes. In the unlikely event the earth under your feet ever shakes uncontrollably you may want to know what to do to increase your odds of survival. Time magazine has a great feature story here.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: More clouds than sun, a bit milder. Winds: SE 5-10. High: 25

Tonight: Patchy clouds, not as cold. Low: 15

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, a little light snow/ice possible by Thursday night. High: near 30

Friday: Period of light snow, mixed with freezing drizzle. A light, slushy accumulation possible. High: 29

Saturday: Flurries taper off - improving travel, turning colder. High: near 20

Sunday: Cloudy with more light snow, potential for an inch or 2" by Monday. High: 18

Monday: Light snow tapers, slowly improving travel conditions. High: 15

Tuesday: Some blue sky, chilly. High: 17

Snowfall Totals from Monday's storm (courtesy of NOAA)

INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME

------  -----------------------  --  --------------   -------

5.10   PRESCOTT                 WI  PIERCE           0600 AM

5.00   DURAND                   WI  PEPIN            0700 AM

4.90   HASTINGS                 MN  DAKOTA           0724 AM

4.90   HASTINGS                 MN  DAKOTA           0710 AM

4.50   RED WING                 MN  GOODHUE          0625 AM

4.20   BLOOMINGTON              MN  HENNEPIN         0734 AM

3.70   ST PAUL                  MN  RAMSEY           0750 AM

                         IN HIGHLAND PARK.

3.60   WACONIA                  MN  CARVER           0650 AM

3.60   CHANHASSEN               MN  CARVER           0636 AM

            MEASURED AT THE NWS FORECAST OFFICE.

3.50   LAKEVILLE                MN  DAKOTA           0737 AM

3.50   3 NW PLYMOUTH            MN  HENNEPIN         0701 AM

3.50   ELLSWORTH                WI  PIERCE           0625 AM

3.40   WATERTOWN                MN  CARVER           0958 AM

3.40   DELANO                   MN  WRIGHT           0615 AM

3.30   ST LOUIS PARK            MN  HENNEPIN         0820 AM

3.20   2 W PRIOR LAKE           MN  SCOTT            0625 AM

3.10   DONNELLY                 MN  STEVENS          0658 AM

3.00   WELCOME                  MN  MARTIN           0955 AM

3.00   ST PAUL                  MN  RAMSEY           0800 AM

            UNIVERSITY OF MN ST PAUL CAMPUS

3.00   LAMBERTON                MN  REDWOOD          0700 AM

3.00   3 WSW SHERBURN           MN  MARTIN           0700 AM

3.00   3 SE ALBERT LEA          MN  FREEBORN         0700 AM

3.00   BLUE EARTH               MN  FARIBAULT        0700 AM

3.00   4 N FAIRMONT             MN  MARTIN           0700 AM

3.00   WELLS                    MN  FARIBAULT        0700 AM

3.00   WINNEBAGO                MN  FARIBAULT        0700 AM

3.00   1 SW MONTEVIDEO          MN  CHIPPEWA         0700 AM

3.00   6 SSW LAKEVILLE          MN  SCOTT            0700 AM

3.00   3 SE LAKE ELMO           MN  WASHINGTON       0700 AM

3.00   PRIOR LAKE               MN  SCOTT            0646 AM

2.90   2 N CHASKA               MN  CARVER           0643 AM

2.90   MINNEAPOLIS              MN  HENNEPIN         0625 AM

            MEASURED AT THE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

2.80   HAMMOND                  WI  ST. CROIX        0700 AM

2.80   2 NW MAPLEWOOD           MN  RAMSEY           0700 AM

2.70   ST PAUL                  MN  RAMSEY           0737 AM

            OCCURRED IN COMO PARK.

2.60   WOODBURY                 MN  WASHINGTON       0900 AM

            0.13 WATER EQUIVALENT.

2.50   BROWNTON                 MN  MCLEOD           0900 AM

2.50   COMFREY                  MN  BROWN            0824 AM

2.50   ST PAUL                  MN  RAMSEY           0822 AM

            MEASURED IN SW PORTION OF CITY.

2.50   MENOMONIE                WI  DUNN             0724 AM

2.50   FARIBAULT                MN  RICE             0700 AM

2.50   3 ENE RIVER FALLS        WI  ST. CROIX        0700 AM

2.50   ZUMBROTA                 MN  GOODHUE          0700 AM

2.50   5 NE FOREST LAKE         MN  CHISAGO          0700 AM

2.50   ELLENDALE                MN  STEELE           0650 AM

2.40   1 SSW JORDAN             MN  SCOTT            0700 AM

2.20   1 WSW NEW BRIGHTON       MN  RAMSEY           0846 AM

2.20   1 NNE HUDSON             WI  ST. CROIX        0700 AM

2.20   FRIDLEY                  MN  ANOKA            0658 AM

2.10   2 S LESTER PRAIRIE       MN  MCLEOD           0700 AM

2.00   STILLWATER               MN  WASHINGTON       0822 AM

2.00   CARLOS                   MN  DOUGLAS          0815 AM

2.00   NORTHFIELD               MN  RICE             0710 AM

2.00   REDWOOD FALLS            MN  REDWOOD          0700 AM

2.00   BALDWIN                  WI  ST. CROIX        0700 AM

2.00   LITTLE FALLS             MN  MORRISON         0600 AM

2.00   WINTHROP                 MN  SIBLEY           0500 AM

1.80   CONNORSVILLE             WI  DUNN             0815 AM

1.70   CLAYTON                  WI  POLK             1010 AM

1.70   ST CLOUD                 MN  STEARNS          0625 AM

            MEASURED AT THE MEDIUM SECURITY PRISON.

1.50   EAU CLAIRE               WI  EAU CLAIRE       1112 AM

1.50   STANLEY                  WI  CHIPPEWA         0714 AM

1.50   MORGAN                   MN  REDWOOD          0650 AM

1.50   KIMBALL                  MN  STEARNS          0625 AM

1.30   RUSH CITY                MN  CHISAGO          1215 PM

1.30   EAU CLAIRE               WI  EAU CLAIRE       0536 AM

            MEASURED AT WQOW TV.

Gradual temperature inflation

2010-02-01T21:35:00.001-06:00

What exactly was that cold, white, (foreign), crystalline substance falling out of a slate-gray sky on Monday? Old-timers referred to it as s-n-o-w.

I did a little research on the subject, consulted my trusty Merriam-Webster dictionary:

"SNOW"

Pronunciation: \ˈsnō\

Function: noun

Usage: often attributive

Etymology: Middle English, from Old English snāw; akin to Old High German snēo snow, Latin niv-, nix, Greek nipha (accusative)

Date: before 12th century

1 a : precipitation in the form of small white ice crystals formed directly from the water vapor of the air at a temperature of less than 32°F (0°C).

For the record only 3.1" snow fell on the Twin Cities (officially, at MSP International) during the month of January. According to NOAA records that made snowfall in January, 2010 the NINTH LEAST since 1891 for the Twin Cities area. The least January snow ever reported: .6" in 1892 and 1898. It turns out the last few January's have been unusually fickle (and snowless). It was the least January snow since 2.3" fell in January, 2006.

One of the Top 10 Gloomiest Januarys (for Twin Cities snow-lovers). With 3.1" last month add 2010 as #9 to the list of "least snowy Januarys in the Twin Cities." Graphic courtesy of the MN State Climatology Office. For more click on this link.

:            STATION           MAX     MIN     SNOW  SNOW
:             NAME             TEMP    TEMP    FALL  DEPTH
AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN ARPT     :  10  /    2      M      M
STC : ST CLOUD MN ARPT       :  12  /   -1  /  0.9     9
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN ARPT    :  16  /    8  /  0.8     8
RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN ARPT  :  16  /    5  /   M      M
DLH : DULUTH AIRPORT         :  11  /  -11  /  0.0     25
INL : INTERNATIONAL FALLS    :   7  /  -22  /   T      19
HIB : HIBBING ARPT           :  10  /  -14      M      M
GNA : GRAND MARAIS MN        :  20  /    0  /   M      M
RST : ROCHESTER MN ARPT      :  19  /    6  /  1.0     11

Statewide Climate Recap. Data as of 7 pm Monday evening. St. Cloud picked up .9" Monday (as much as fell all of January!). The Twin Cities: .8" with 1" in Rochester. Final amounts may be a bit higher, especially south of the Twin Cities, where the heaviest bands from Monday's clipper set up. Note Duluth: reporting a healthy 25" of snow on the ground. Even Rochester has more snow on the ground than St. Cloud or the Twin Cities. Very odd.

Snapshot of a Clipper. Monday evening's weather map showing a cyclonic swirl of snow. The purple/red dots show IFR conditions, where cloud ceilings and visibilities are lowest (implying heavier amounts of snow). For the latest "surface map" for the Upper Midwest click here.

Encouraging Trends. The models are in close agreement about the impending warming trend through the end of the week - some divergence about the cooling trend early next week, but there's little doubt that a colder front pushes back into Minnesota by Monday.

Next "Nuisance Snow"? The GFS model is hinting at a little light snow Friday and Saturday, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle at times. Amounts should be light, under an inch or so. With afternoon highs in the upper 20s to near 30 most (major) roads may just be wet/slushy by then.

A few (random) weather headlines:

* Next week's cold push won't be as bitter (or enduring) as this latest outbreak - 2 or 3 days of highs in the teens.

* The mercury return to the mid 20s, possibly 30 again by the end of next week.

* I still don't see a major storm (snow, ice or rain) looking out 10-14 days. Beyond that time frame the crystal ball gets very, very murky. Maybe we'll ease into February after all.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Slippery start. Flurries giving way to peeks of sun. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 18

Tonight: Partly cloudy, quite cold. Low: 3

Wednesday: Becoming mostly cloudy - decent travel conditions. High: 21

Thursday: Overcast, a bit milder. High: 27

Friday: A period of light snow, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle. High: near 30

Saturday: Light snow/flurries, potential for a slushy coating to 1" High: 28

Sunday: Better travel day. More clouds than sun. High: 25

Monday: Windy, turning colder with more sunshine. High: near 20, falling into the teens.

1-2" of Minnesota Powder

2010-02-01T13:03:00.001-06:00

Update. Monday, 1 pm. Light snow continues to fall from a weak clipper-like system racing across Minnesota. I still think we're on track to pick up 1-2" of light, fluffy, powdery snow by the evening hours. As expected the PM rush is going to be a bit of a mess, perhaps double the normal commute times (the salt/sand mix used by MnDOT doesn't work nearly as well when temperatures are in the teens). Give yourself extra time to get around town today. Less than 1" is likely to our north, from Little Falls to the Lake Mille Lacs area, to the far northern suburbs of the Twin Cities. Some 2-4" amounts are possible from Willmar to the southern 'burbs of the Twin Cities, but most of us should wind up with 1-2" of new fluff. Hardly a snowy catastrophe, but the timing couldn't have been much worse.

Yesterday I did a little recreational dog-sledding on a frozen lake nearby. Ice-fishing, snowmobiles, ATV's, a little chili and cheese out on the tundra - celebrating the 1st Annual WeatherNation Winter Bash. Some of our on-air meteorologists are from Florida, and they had this deer-in-the-headlights expression, slipping & sliding around on over 2 feet of solid ice, loving every slippery moment. This is the secret to not only surviving, but ENJOYING a Minnesota winter. Shake off the initial urge to hibernate, curl up in the fetal position until the mercury strikes 50 - go out and grab Old Man Winter by the collar and shake him around a little. Nothing better to chase away the midwinter blues and lift yourself out of an arctic funk that playing in the snow - it brings out the 10-year old in all of us. Don't get me wrong, I'm looking forward to the day when I can step outside without looking like the Michelin Man, wrapped in multiple layers of cotton and wool. That day is approaching faster than you might think. 20s are likely later this week, possibly some low 30s by the weekend. With the warming trend will come a growing chance of wintry precipitation, as early as this afternoon and evening, when we get grazed by an Alberta Clipper capable of a quick inch or two of ill-timed snow. Yes, you should get off to work, school or the store this morning with very few weather-induced headaches, but the PM commute may be a longer ordeal, a parade of brake-lights barely visible through waves of light to moderate snow.

No, we probably won't see this much snow later today. It should be considerably less, more like 1", more south of town, less to the north. That's more than fell during all of January, btw.

A thoroughly forgettable January. What a strange month: -15 F (air temperature!) the morning of Jan. 2, 11 nights below zero, and then a welcome mid-month thaw (7 days above freezing from the 16th to the 23rd) and a very significant RAIN event on the 23rd, followed by a numbing end to the month. The upshot: the entire (wacky) month averaged close to normal, at least as of Jan. 30 - and we only saw a pitiful 3.1" of snow during what is - historically - the snowiest month of the year. By comparison Washington D.C. picked up 7.4" of snow in January, Memphis, Tennessee saw 1.4", St. Cloud saw a paltry .9". Let me get this straight: Memphis saw more January snow than St. Cloud? Strange but true...

When it's this cold it doesn't take much upward motion throughout the atmosphere for a quick, inconvenient inch of Minnesota powder. As if often the case, it's not just the amount of snow - it's the timing. The salt/sand mix put down on our highways by MnDOT works much better at 25-30 F than it does with temperatures in the teens, so expect some very slippery spots out there. The obvious problem: even a little snow will cover up the 1/2 to 1" of ice lurking out there. Leave extra time to get home, the combination of 1-2" of snow (more south, less north) + temperatures in the mid teens + extra rush hour traffic = a possible 4 on the dreaded Hassle Factor (which goes from 1 to 5, with 1 being smooth sailing and 5 equating to a parking lot with all the engines running). You've been warned.

Another fickle clipper. I hate these meteorological concoctions - they are notoriously fickle, even harder to predict with any precision than (wetter/warmer) storms approaching from Texas or Missouri. A slight zig or zag to the storm track, even 50 miles, can make the difference between flurries - and 5" of flurries. But the trends seem undeniable: more snow south/west of the Minnesota River - far less snow north of St. Cloud and the Twin Cities. The farther south/west you drive today - away from town - the heavier the snow and worse the PM travel conditions. Right now I'm thinking about 1/2 to 1 1/2" from St. Cloud - down Interstate 94 - to the Twin Cities.

A warm oasis. You don't see this very often. The 6-10 Day Extended Outlook from CPC, the Climate Prediction Center, is predicting warmer than normal temperatures for the Upper Midwest, temperatures trending cooler over just about the entire rest of America. Thank you El Nino! For more climate information as far out as 90 days into the future click here.

Light snow tapers off a bit on Tuesday - travel conditions improve by Wednesday and Thursday before the next wave of moisture surges northward from the Gulf of Mexico late in the week. The models are still a bit contradictory and nebulous, but I could easily see a couple inches of additional snow from Friday into Saturday - the lowest mile of the atmosphere < style="font-weight: bold;">

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Mostly cloudy, best chance of light snow afternoon/evening hours, from 1/2 to 1 1/2" possible. Far south metro may pick up 1-3" of snow by tonight. Roads will be slippery later today. Winds: East 5-10. High: 12

Tonight: Light snow tapers to flurries - icy roads. Low: 3

Tuesday: Lingering clouds and flurries, another dusting/coating. High: 15

Wednesday: More clouds than sun, a bit milder. High: 23

Thursday: Patchy clouds, relatively good travel conditions. High: 24

Friday: Another period of light snow, around 1" possible. High: 26

Saturday: More light snow/flurries, an inch or two can't be ruled out. High: 28

Sunday: Flurries taper, better travel weather. High: near 30

Monday: Turning windy/colder with passing flurries. High: 28 (falling through the 20s).

1-2" of Minnesota Powder

2010-01-31T22:09:00.002-06:00

Update. Monday, 1 pm. Light snow continues to fall from a weak clipper-like system racing across Minnesota. I still think we're on track to pick up 1-2" of light, fluffy, powdery snow by the evening hours. As expected the PM rush is going to be a bit of a mess, perhaps double the normal commute times (the salt/sand mix used by MnDOT doesn't work nearly as well when temperatures are in the teens). Give yourself extra time to get around town today. Less than 1" is likely to our north, from Little Falls to the Lake Mille Lacs area, to the far northern suburbs of the Twin Cities. Some 2-4" amounts are possible from Willmar to the southern 'burbs of the Twin Cities, but most of us should wind up with 1-2" of new fluff. Hardly a snowy catastrophe, but the timing couldn't have been much worse.

Yesterday I did a little recreational dog-sledding on a frozen lake nearby. Ice-fishing, snowmobiles, ATV's, a little chili and cheese out on the tundra - celebrating the 1st Annual WeatherNation Winter Bash. Some of our on-air meteorologists are from Florida, and they had this deer-in-the-headlights expression, slipping & sliding around on over 2 feet of solid ice, loving every slippery moment. This is the secret to not only surviving, but ENJOYING a Minnesota winter. Shake off the initial urge to hibernate, curl up in the fetal position until the mercury strikes 50 - go out and grab Old Man Winter by the collar and shake him around a little. Nothing better to chase away the midwinter blues and lift yourself out of an arctic funk that playing in the snow - it brings out the 10-year old in all of us. Don't get me wrong, I'm looking forward to the day when I can step outside without looking like the Michelin Man, wrapped in multiple layers of cotton and wool. That day is approaching faster than you might think. 20s are likely later this week, possibly some low 30s by the weekend. With the warming trend will come a growing chance of wintry precipitation, as early as this afternoon and evening, when we get grazed by an Alberta Clipper capable of a quick inch or two of ill-timed snow. Yes, you should get off to work, school or the store this morning with very few weather-induced headaches, but the PM commute may be a longer ordeal, a parade of brake-lights barely visible through waves of light to moderate snow.

No, we probably won't see this much snow later today. It should be considerably less, more like 1", more south of town, less to the north. That's more than fell during all of January, btw.

A thoroughly forgettable January. What a strange month: -15 F (air temperature!) the morning of Jan. 2, 11 nights below zero, and then a welcome mid-month thaw (7 days above freezing from the 16th to the 23rd) and a very significant RAIN event on the 23rd (.23"), followed by a numbing end to the month. The upshot: the entire (wacky) month averaged close to normal, at least as of Jan. 30 - and we only saw a pitiful 3.1" of snow during what is - historically - the snowiest month of the year. By comparison Washington D.C. picked up 7.4" of snow in January, Memphis, Tennessee saw 1.4", St. Cloud saw a paltry .9". Let me get this straight: Memphis saw more January snow than St. Cloud? Strange but true...

When it's this cold it doesn't take much upward motion throughout the atmosphere for a quick, inconvenient inch of Minnesota powder. As if often the case, it's not just the amount of snow - it's the timing. The salt/sand mix put down on our highways by MnDOT works much better at 25-30 F than it does with temperatures in the teens, so expect some very slippery spots out there. The obvious problem: even a little snow will cover up the 1/2 to 1" of ice lurking out there. Leave extra time to get home, the combination of 1-2" of snow (more south, less north) + temperatures in the mid teens + extra rush hour traffic = a possible 4 on the dreaded Hassle Factor (which goes from 1 to 5, with 1 being smooth sailing and 5 equating to a parking lot with all the engines running). You've been warned.

Another fickle clipper. I hate these meteorological concoctions - they are notoriously fickle, even harder to predict with any precision than (wetter/warmer) storms approaching from Texas or Missouri. A slight zig or zag to the storm track, even 50 miles, can make the difference between flurries - and 5" of flurries. But the trends seem undeniable: more snow south/west of the Minnesota River - far less snow north of St. Cloud and the Twin Cities. The farther south/west you drive today - away from town - the heavier the snow and worse the PM travel conditions. Right now I'm thinking about 1/2 to 1 1/2" from St. Cloud - down Interstate 94 - to the Twin Cities.

A warm oasis. You don't see this very often. The 6-10 Day Extended Outlook from CPC, the Climate Prediction Center, is predicting warmer than normal temperatures for the Upper Midwest, temperatures trending cooler over just about the entire rest of America. Thank you El Nino! For more climate information as far out as 90 days into the future click here.

Light snow tapers off a bit on Tuesday - travel conditions improve by Wednesday and Thursday before the next wave of moisture surges northward from the Gulf of Mexico late in the week. The models are still a bit contradictory and nebulous, but I could easily see a couple inches of additional snow from Friday into Saturday - the lowest mile of the atmosphere < style="font-weight: bold;">

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Mostly cloudy, best chance of light snow afternoon/evening hours, from 1/2 to 1 1/2" possible. Far south metro may pick up 1-3" of snow by tonight. Roads will be slippery later today. Winds: East 5-10. High: 12

Tonight: Light snow tapers to flurries - icy roads. Low: 3

Tuesday: Lingering clouds and flurries, another dusting/coating. High: 15

Wednesday: More clouds than sun, a bit milder. High: 23

Thursday: Patchy clouds, relatively good travel conditions. High: 24

Friday: Another period of light snow, around 1" possible. High: 26

Saturday: More light snow/flurries, an inch or two can't be ruled out. High: 28

Sunday: Flurries taper, better travel weather. High: near 30

Monday: Turning windy/colder with passing flurries. High: 28 (falling through the 20s).

Forecast: February Slush

2010-01-30T23:15:00.000-06:00

The cold is getting....old. At some point one just grows weary, exhausted by uncontrollable shivering, tired of being assaulted (daily) with the latest wind chill, sick of pleading with your car heater, irritable from clenching your fists & holding your breath every time you wander out to get the mail. It's the cold AND the ice - shuffling out to the mailbox every morning to rescue my morning newspapers, picking each step extra-carefully, trying to keep from becoming instantly-horizontal. Don't get me wrong: I like the snow - enjoy revving up the sleds, hitting the trails, getting pelted in the face by stray ice-balls thrown by my two grown sons. Groundhog Day is Tuesday, and I have a hunch, a gut feel (nausea?) that Punxetawney Phil WILL see his shadow, insuring 6 more weeks of winter. At this latitude that's pretty much guaranteed.

Cue the Hallelujah Chorus. Oh sweet, ice-melting relief! The models are in pretty good agreement. The core of the coldest Canadian air will retreat northward in the coming days, our winds originating from Vancouver and Seattle instead of the Yukon. That should mean highs near 30 by the end of the week.

A Week's Worth of Records. Since last Saturday 2,258 (daily) records have been reported across the lower 48 states. Green: record daily rainfall, red dots: record highs, yellow: record nighttime lows. Check out the record daily snowfall records clustered around Oklahoma and Arkansas. To get specifics (from Ham Weather) for any record event click over to Ham Weather here.

Latest Snow Cover. According to NOAA southwestern MN, the Red River Valley and the North Shore has the most snow on the ground, 10-20" or so. From St. Cloud to the Twin Cities less than 7-8" is on the ground. Our recent (heavy) rain compacted the snow, we're down 2-4" in just the last week.

Winter Overview. This NOAA graphic shows average temperatures for the USA, Minnesota temperatures 1-2 F. warmer than average, while much cooler weather has been observed from Phoenix and northern Mexico to San Antonio, New Orleans and Mobile, possibly a symptom of El Nino.

That said, the atmosphere is about to shift gears - a Pacific breeze will kick in later this week, meaning 20s, even some low 30s by the end of the week. A weak clipper may brush the area with a very light accumulation late Monday into Tuesday (coating to 1/2 or 1", tops). Another "nuisance" snowfall is possible by late Thursday and Friday, another inch or slush. Some of the long range guidance is hinting at enough warm air aloft for a period of rain around Feb. 11-12 with highs well up in the 30s to near 40.

Clipped Again. Models are hinting at a couple inches of snow next week, the best chance of a light coating Monday night - again late Thursday into Friday. I think the models are overestimating snowfall amounts a bit - no significant accumulation is in sight for the next 7-10 days. Snow lovers will have to be patient another couple of weeks, I'm afraid.

St. Cloud has only picked up .9" of snow all month (we should have picked up closer to 10" of snow in January). This is, at least on paper, the coldest, snowiest month of the year. Right. In spite of a numbing start to the month, and a cold finish, our midweek thaw was significant enough that temperatures for the entire month are running about 1 degree above average, a bit surprising considering all the shivering we've been doing in recent days. Temperatures should trend 5-10 degrees above average through the first half of February; models hinting at a colder front for the third week of February (but not as chilling as recent days).

An early spring? Here in Minnesota? Nice try Paul. Ease up on your meds, would you? Based on a lingering El Nino warming of equatorial Pacific water the deep south is forecast to be cooler, wetter and stormier from February through April, while warmer-than-normal weather is predicted for the northern half of America, including Minnesota. I think this is a believable scenario (but I wouldn't be the farm on a 90 day outlook).

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Partly sunny, quite cold. Winds: NW 5-15. High: 12

Tonight: Patchy clouds, plenty cold. Low: -2

Monday: Clouds increase, a period of light snow possible PM hours, best chance south/west of the MN River. High: 14

Tuesday: Lingering flurries, few slick spots. High: 16

Wednesday: Feeling a bit better out there, intervals of sun. High: 23

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, few flakes around town. High: 26

Friday: Light snow/flurries, "nuisance" accumulation possible, maybe a coating. High: 27

Saturday: Light snow, potential for an inch or so. High: 28

Sunday: Leftover clouds, above average for a change. High: near 30

Keeping a little perspective

2010-01-28T22:08:00.001-06:00

"Any day you can crawl to the window and look out is a good day."

- anonymous

Yesterday was a tough day. I went to a funeral for a close friend, a next-door neighbor who died at the age of 52, a tragic death. She leaves behind an amazing husband and 4 exemplary boys. It was a painful reminder of the fragility of life - the stuff most of us take for granted every day. So I won't complain about the current temperature or the predicted wind chill. Not today. No time soon.

Anatomy of a cold wave. Here are the predicted temperatures across North America for 7 am this morning. Purple connotes subzero readings - the freezing line extending way south from near Dallas to Little Rock to Wilmington, North Carolina. This is about as cold as it's going to get, nationwide, looking out the next 2-3 weeks.

A welcome February thaw. The GFS brings the (wondrous!) 32 degree isotherm into central Minnesota by 7 pm next Thursday, Feb. 4. The worst of our current cold wave will be winding down by early next week.

A welcome warming trend is still showing up on the horizon, the atmosphere forecast to shift gears from a Yukon breeze to more of a Pacific flow by the latter half of next week. That means a rerun of 20s and 30s, temperatures trending 5-10 degrees ABOVE average by the first full weekend of February. The pattern still isn't ripe for a major storm anytime soon - a weak, clipper-like system capable of whipping up a coating of light snow Monday of next week. The GFS model is still hinting at a more significant storm between Feb. 7 (Sunday) and Feb. 9 (Tuesday). Right now it looks like rain ending as a couple inches of slushy snow, but a lot can change between now and then. Until then: relatively smooth sailing, no travel-busting storms, toe-curling cold through the weekend, followed by some real moderation, a definite mellowing of our weather, by the end of next week.

Rain/snow mix? The GFS model is suggesting that the air will be marginally warm enough in the lowest mile of the atmosphere for mostly-rain by the weekend of Feb. 6-7. The rain/snow line is forecast to set up from Duluth to St. Cloud to Pipestone by midday Monday: rain east, mostly-snow west. A changeover to wet snow is possible Monday-Tuesday with a potential for a couple of inches. The confidence level is low, this event is still 9-10 days away.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Plenty of sun - yes, it's "cold enough for me." Winds: SE 5-10. High: 9

Tonight: Mostly clear, numbing. Low: -7

Saturday: Sunshine much of the day. High: 15

Sunday: Increasing clouds, flurries possible late. High: 17

Monday: Light snow/flurries, coating possible. High: 19

Tuesday: Flurries giving way to partial clearing. High: 17

Wednesday: More clouds than sun. High: near 20

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, noticeably milder. High: 26

A badly-needed February thaw

2010-01-27T21:52:00.000-06:00

Yes, it's cold out there, but my (esoteric) question remains: can you really feel the difference between -5 and -15? Not sure. Can you be any number than....numb? I have no idea. Maybe frostbite sets in faster, the slow, insidious drop-off in body temperature (hypothermia) sets in quicker. But I'll be darned if I can tell a difference. A little perspective is in order here: this latest arctic smack will NOT be as memorable as our streak of subzero lows the first week of January. So far we've had 9 subzero nights in the Twin Cities, air temperatures as cold as -15 F.

Slushy February? Check out the raw model output (GFS) for the first 12 days of February. Daytime highs close to freezing, the atmosphere (potentially) warm enough for mostly-rain from Feb. 10-12, when the model prints out over 1" of precipitation.

Things just have an (uncanny) way of evening things out, the high "highs" usually balance out the lowest "lows". We got off to a very cold start, no question - but the middle of January was unusually mild, and you may be surprised to hear that - for the entire month - temperatures are running almost 1.6 degrees F above average across central Minnesota. With the mercury dipping 10-20 degrees below average through Saturday we may wind up with January temperatures (for the entire month) a degree or two below average. Remember, there is no such thing as "average weather", not in Minnesota.

The pattern still isn't ripe for a major storm looking out through the first week of February, although the long-range GFS model is hinting at a mix, possibly even heavy rain, between Feb. 10-12. That's way out on the horizon, confidence levels are low, but I think it's fairly safe to say that you won't do any heavy-duty shoveling anytime soon. A clipper-like system may whip up a light coating of snow next Monday, but here's the big weather story: we end out January on a numbing note, but temperatures should rebound nicely after Feb. 2 or so - I see a string of 20s and 30s from Feb. 2 through the middle of February, and with a rising sun angle and a slowly shrinking snow pack, the odds of long-lasting subzero outbreaks drop off fairly significantly as we go through the month of February. We are by no means out of the woods, but the El Nino (Pacifi signal) is showing up again, it should mean a reasonable first half of February in the temperature department - nothing controversial, nothing that will tempt a primal scream (or call to your favorite travel agent). Oh, are there any travel agents left?

Next nuisance snowfall event? Models are suggesting a coating to an inch or so of snow next Monday as a clipper-like system sweeps across the Upper Midwest. A more significant storm (possibly a mix of snow/sleet/rain) is predicted for Feb. 10-12.

A few interesting weather nuggets (at least I found them interesting):

(SUN PHOTO/Ernie Imhoff/Mount Washington summit, January 1999)

We have a new worldwide wind record. The old record of 231 mph for a wind gust on the top of Mt. Washington, N.H. (highest weather observatory in the U.S.) - set in 1934 during a severe winter storm - has fallen by the wayside. The new record: 254 mph during Cyclone (same as hurricane) Olivia in 1996. Check out the new record right here.

Aunt Edna complaining about her aching knee, insisting a storm is coming? You may want to listen up. The field of "bio-meteorology" is bustling, especially in Europe. Changes in temperature, humidity and pressure CAN have a significant impact on the physical and mental health of many Americans - some of us seem to be more weather-sensitive than others. For an interesting story on weather & health click here.

We are 61st - we are 61st! America leads a lot of important lists, but when it comes to environmental action, we're pretty far down on the list. Iceland is #1, China is a (pathetic) #121st. For the (rather embarrassing) details click here.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Windchill advisory this morning for western suburbs (feels like -20 F at times). Partly sunny, cold wind. Winds: West 10-15. High: 6

Tonight: Mostly clear, coldest night this week? Low: -11

Friday: Bright sun, numbing (less wind though). High: 8

Saturday: Mix of clouds and sun, not as arctic. High: 13

Sunday: Clouds increase, flurries late. High: 17

Monday: Period of light snow/flurries, coating to 1" possible. High: near 20

Tuesday: Lingering flurries, closer to average. High: 22

Wednesday: A bit "milder", peeks of sun. High: 27

A state of (reluctant) weather warriors

2010-01-26T21:01:00.001-06:00

I just got done watching a story on the Sunday morning CBS newscast, highlighting the spirited, cold weather competition between Embarrass and Tower, Minnesota. Folks up in International Falls have to be feeling a bit left out - if this keeps up they'll have to start testing batteries 100 miles south/east of INL, a combination of terrain, vegetation (or lack thereof) and a total and utter absence of any hint of an urban heat island means that the coldest pocket in the state is probably somewhere between Embarrass and Tower, which still has the state record for the coldest air temperature ever observed (modern day record) - a brisk, invigorating -60 F. That headline-generating, awe-inspiring morning was nearly 13 years ago. Even though the long-term trends are upward and onward, winters are (overall) trending milder, fewer bitter -40 F outbreaks in the last few decades, we still get crazy outbreaks of battery-draining, pipe-rupturing air still smelling of Siberia.

Signs of hope. The models are all in fairly good agreement that temperatures will recover by early next week. Only in Minnesota is a prediction of 20s considered a "warm front." Go figure.

The wicked winds of winter. Winds at 500 mb (about 18,000 feet) show a classic "split flow", an active stormy southerly branch to the jet stream whisking the wettest, wildest storms well south of Minnesota. A bitterly cold northerly branch to the jet stream will keep the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and New England 10-20 degrees colder than average through the end of this week, but winds aloft are forecast to become more "zonal", more west to east, much of next week, meaning a welcome rerun of 20s and 30s. The end is near (to our latest cold wave!)

Yes, it's cold - no debate there. There's something about arctic outbreaks that is refreshingly democratic, rich or poor, young or old - everyone gets to hold their breath walking outside to get the mail, everyone gets to plead with their car heater. The biting breeze crosses all gender, race and age lines, we all suffer, simultaneously. Our reward? The promise of spring (most of the snow will be gone within 8-9 weeks, as hard as that might be to believe right now). Summers in Minnesota are nothing short of magical: Lake Wobegon come to life. Spring can come (and go) in the veritable blink of an eye, but autumn tends to linger, football, falling leaves and the pungent smell of wood-smoke all conspiring to create more great Minnesota memories.

Ski..... Arkansas? Another possible symptom of El Nino? Perhaps. A moderate warming of equatorial Pacific Ocean water tends to favor big storms for California, tracking across the southern U.S. The GFS model is hinting at a major snowfall, maybe a foot or more, from Tulsa to the Ozarks of Arkansas to the higher terrain of Kentucky and the Virginias. By the end of this week these regions may have more snow on the ground than St. Cloud or the Twin Cities. Bizarre, huh?

36 hour snowfall prediction. Just when you think you've seen everything. Dallas, Texas had the first white Christmas in decades. And now a new storm promises to dump a foot or more of snow on the panhandle of Texas and Oklahoma. A touch of lake-effect snow may add a couple inches downwind of the Great Lakes through Friday.

This too shall pass - in fact the worst of the cold will be winding down by the weekend. Suck it up - four more days of intermittent shivering, grumbling & growling about the wind chill, highs in single digits and teens through Saturday, but 20s (above) will feel pretty good by Sunday. An Alberta Clipper whips up a few flurries late Sunday, maybe a light coating of snow Monday as the mercury climbs toward 30 (above!) We cool down again next week, but this outbreak will be relatively brief - more 20s and 30s come sweeping in off the Pacific by the end of next week. This is what we can expect to see in February: more infrequent outbreaks of thumb-numbing air. It WILL get cold, but these outbreaks will get only last a few days, and then we'll bounce back into the 20s and 30s. Within a few weeks I predict we'll sample 40 degrees. The El Nino signal seems to be real this time: a tendency for Pacific storms to give California a good wet whack before tracking across the southern states, keeping the deep south unusually cool, wet and stormy - while the northern tier states, including Minnesota, see more of a Pacific influence, fewer and fewer intrusions from the Arctic Circle? Overly optimistic? Possibly - but I still believe the very worst of winter, in terms of severity and duration of temperatures < style="font-weight: bold;">

Next nuisance snowfall event? The GFS model is hinting at a weak clipper squeezing out a little light snow late Sunday into Monday, maybe an inch for central Minnesota, a couple inches far north. The pattern isn't ripe for significant storms in Minnesota looking out the next 10-15 days.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Some sun, numbing breeze. Clouds increase this afternoon. Winds: W 10-20. High: 9

Tonight: Patchy clouds, feels like -25 F at times. Get me out of here! Low: -6

Thursday: More clouds than sun, few passing flakes. High: 8 (coldest day!)

Friday: More sun, still "Nanook". Can't feel my extremities. Low: -9 High: near 10

Saturday: Sunnier day of the weekend, still numb. Low: -7 High: 13

Sunday: Clouds increase, very light snow/flurries late in the day. Low: 0 High: 23

Monday: A period of light snow/flurries, under 1" expected. High: 26

Tuesday: Windy and colder with gradual clearing. High: 18

The Dark Days

2010-01-25T22:07:00.000-06:00

Black armbands, flags at half-staff, knots of (sad-looking) friends and colleagues speaking in hushed tones. Minnesota is still undergoing Vikings-trauma. We've all fallen - and we can't get up. I love the people who say, "it's just a game!" Right, and Superior is just a lake. The truth: Minnesotans need a major winter distraction, a day-dream in purple and gold, a Vikings-shaped vessel to pour their hopes and dreams into. Don't get me wrong, I love the Twins too, but there are so many games the season can get a little blurry at times. With football there are only 16 opportunities to shine, 16 chances to make us forget the windchill, 16 Sundays to ignore the growing stack of bills on the desk. That's why Sunday's showdown in New Orleans was so much more than "a game", at least for die-hard Vikings fans. This past season was like Cinderella (with pads and spiked shoes). Mr. Favre made many of us true-believers, as awkward and painful as it must have been for Packer fans, Brett energized our team, breathed new life into our various midlife crisis - inspired anyone over the age of 40. It was an amazing season, in spite of Sunday's final score.

Feel the burn. The WRF model is predicting temperature close to zero Thursday evening at 6 pm across much of Minnesota as a reinforcing shot of arctic air sweeps south of the border. Although not quite as cold as early January, this will be one of the colder weeks of the winter.

My son is a youngster (sophomore) at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis. The midshipmen have a name for this time of year, when days are raw, the sun hanging low and uncertain in the southern sky. Too much work, too many obligations, not enough free-time or me-time, just a seemingly endless string of cold, drab, numbing days stretching to eternity. Depression and anxiety peaks in January, a pervasive sense of hopelessness, tinged with despair. For many - this really is the dark days, still digging out from holiday bills, the arctic chill just adds insult to injury. My take? We're picking up 1-2 minutes of new daylight every passing day. Within 1 week (1 week!) the average temperature starts to rise again, for the first time in 6 months. Scanning the weather maps I'm still (reasonably) convinced that the very worst of winter is behind us, the coldest, longest stretch of subzero days and nights.

Land of the free, home of the snow-weary. Check out how much snow is on the ground over the western and northern third of the USA, although not as extensive and widespread as during the first week of January. Southwestern Minnesota still boasts the most snow on the ground, a cool 15-20"+. The North Shore of Lake Superior has just as much, 12-24" just north/east of Duluth.

Nagging flood potential. According to NOAA there is at least 4-7" of liquid water wrapped up in the snow south/west of the Minnesota River. The concern: a sudden thaw, coupled with moderate/heavy rain, could trigger rapid snow-melt in March and early April, increasing the potential for flooding on Minnesota's rivers. Too early to predict with any certainty, but the risk is there.

Speaking of subzero - are you enjoying your Tuesday? Yes, this is an acquired taste. But keep in mind our coldest days are usually sunny, blue sky draped overhead. Today the sun will be as high in the sky as it was back on November 15! O.K. I'm grasping at (cold) straws here, but my point is this: we're just about to turn a big corner. Within a mere 30 days we'll see 40s, even a few 50s. Within a month the ice houses will start to come off area lakes - thoughts will turn to spring break, graduation, prom and the fishing opener. Don't get me wrong: there's still plenty of winter left to go - more snow, more outdoor fun in the Minnesota powder, but the (continuous) chirping of some very brave, hearty (stupid?) birds outside my house every morning are a welcome reminder that there will be a spring this year. Hang in there - as soon as next week we'll see a welcome rerun of 20s and 30s as Pacific air filters back into Minnesota.

In the short term this week will be a subtle (yet blunt) reminder that this is - historically - the bottom of the barrel, when temperatures usually flatten out, hit bottom. That's why city fathers (and mothers) in St. Paul chose the last 10 days of January for their big Carnival. They chose these days, confident that these were the 10 days of winter where melting snow/ice was LEAST LIKELY. That's why Saturday's rain was such a shock to the system. Whether it was a symptom of El Nino or just a strange meteorological fluke, it was highly unusual for late January. Between Saturday's rain and Sunday's "dry tongue" snow lovers are in a bit of a funk right about now, and I don't have any big "snow headlines" - the pattern just not ripe for any fresh snow anytime soon. Good news for commuters, bad news for anyone hoping for a few inches of cold, crystalline Minnesota fun.

Climate Data for Monday, January 25.

:            STATION           MAX     MIN       SNOW  SNOW
:             NAME             TEMP    TEMP      FALL  DEPTH
AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN ARPT     :  17  /    8  /      M     M
STC : ST CLOUD MN ARPT       :  21  /   17  /    0.7     8
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN ARPT    :  25  /   19  /    0.9     7
RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN ARPT  :  22  /   10  /      M     M
DLH : DULUTH AIRPORT         :  27  /   18  /    4.2     25
INL : INTERNATIONAL FALLS    :  30  /   11  /    6.4     21
HIB : HIBBING ARPT           :  26  /   15  /      M     M
GNA : GRAND MARAIS MN        :  37  /   24  /      M     M
RST : ROCHESTER MN ARPT      :  26  /   15  /    0.2     11

February thaw? Check out the predicted temperatures (GFS model) for 6 am Monday morning, February 1. Temperatures are forecast to be above 30 across much of central and southern Minnesota - a badly needed upward blip in the mercury, just 6 days away.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Sunshine returns, numbing breeze - feels like -10 F. Winds: West 10-15. High: 11

Tonight: Clear and "Nanook". Low: -5

Wednesday: Plenty of sun, still chilling. High: 9

Thursday: More clouds, few flurries possible. Low: -5. High: 6

Friday: Increasingly sunny, an arctic breeze. Low: -8. High: 9

Saturday: Mix of clouds and sun, not quite as cold. Low: -7. High: 15

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, light snow possible late. High: 23

Monday: Light snow, flurries - noticeably milder. High: 33

Vikes Hangover (and a candy-coating of snow)

2010-01-24T21:25:00.002-06:00

Update: 10:30 am, Monday morning

Light snow continues to fall, whipped up by gusty (30 mph) winds howling from the northwest, creating near-blizzard conditions across the Red River Valley. In general: the farther north/west you drive across the state, the worse driving conditions will be today. I'm still thinking 1-2" of powdery, fluffy snow - prone to blowing and drifting. Visibilities will be low, near white-out conditions. Leave extra time to get home later today. Conditions improve tomorrow as flurries taper but prepare for the coldest spell of weather in over 2 weeks: highs stuck in single digits and teens with a wind chill dipping to -15 to -20 F at times. Not as nasty-numbing as the first week of January, but close, a subtle yet blunt reminder that THIS is the DEAD OF WINTER!

"Nothing like a good football team to distract Minnesotans from the weather brewing outside...."

- close friend (who wishes to remain anonymous)

I doubt I'm the only one drained, mentally-exhausted, hoarse from screaming at my TV set Sunday evening. I love football, but after the 5th (Vikings) turnover I was purple alright, apoplectic with crazy-rage, pacing like an expectant father. The sight of Favre limping off the field: like a punch in the gut. What a game. We can be very proud of our team, in spite of the final score. It may have been the most exciting, most even-matched game of the year. Oh yeah, the weather. Speaking of screaming, I'm not sure if it was a screaming jet stream wind direct from Texas (or Vikes fever) that melted 3" of snow Saturday, triggering mostly-rain on what is historically one of the coldest days of the entire year. A total of .60" of rain fell on the St. Cloud area Saturday, .23" in the Twin Cities; had the mercury been 3-5 degrees colder (throughout the lowest mile of the atmosphere) we would have picked up 2-4" of wet snow Saturday, instead of accumulating puddles and drippy icicles. On Sunday a surge of dry air aloft (the dreaded "dry tongue") cut off the heaviest snow amounts, sparking more flurries/drizzle than real precipitation. So snow lovers are feeling especially unlucky and unloved - an almost March-like rain event Saturday, and by the time the atmosphere is finally cold enough for snow, an invasion of dry air from Arizona chokes off the storm, like bad fuel gumming up a vehicle's carburetor. Oh well, it just wasn't in the cards over the weekend, but we will wind up with a little fresh snow for our trouble: an inch or two may accumulate today and tonight as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico wraps entirely around a Great Lakes storm, approaching from the NORTH. With temperatures tumbling through the 20s into the teens the salt/sand mixture put down by MnDOT plows won't be nearly as effective (as when the mercury is closer to 30 F.) and many roads will become snow-covered as the day goes on. Leave a few extra minutes to get home by late afternoon - we all realize it doesn't take much snow to produce gridlock on the highways. TIMING is almost as important as the actual amount of snow. Even a minor fender-bender, at the wrong intersection, at precisely the wrong time, can bring rush hour traffic to a grinding halt. We've seen worse (I'm thinking travel conditions around Christmas Eve/Day) but I think travel will be negatively impacted, especially PM hours today into tonight.

A rerun of parka & coat weather! Forecast for wake-up temperatures Wednesday morning, ranging from -5 F. in St. Cloud to 1 above in the Twin Cities. Yes, our pleasant little midwinter daydream, our weather honeymoon is drawing to a close - no more soothing, reasonable Pacific breeze looking out for the next 5-6 days. Although not as cold as early January, expect a colder than average week (by a few degrees). No records, nothing controversial - just classic cold Minnesota weather as we finish what is historically the coldest week of the entire year. To see the latest graphical forecasts looking out 7 days for Minnesota and the entire USA click over to NOAA right here.

One fickle mid-winter storm. Saturday temperatures (aloft) too warm for snow across most of Minnesota, then a surge of dry air cutting off snow Sunday (except for the Minnesota Arrowhead, where 3-8" piled up closer to the Lake Superior shoreline). Today moisture wrapping completely around the storm, approaching from the north, will spark a period of accumulating snow, maybe an inch or two by late Monday night. We will have something to show for this storm in terms of snow, but not much. To see the very latest (high-res) weather map click here.

Barely "plowable". The NAM weather model is hinting at more snow east of St. Cloud, less west, maybe 1-2" by late tonight. The rest of the week looks fairly dry, future storms sliding off well south/west of Minnesota through the weekend.

Big ouch! I guess it was as inevitable as gravity & taxes: with long nights and plenty of snow on the ground across Canada and the northern tier states of the USA there is still plenty of potential for bitter air to build to our north and seep south of the border. Daytime highs will be stuck in the teens for daytime highs most of this week, at least 4-5 nights below zero - but not as bitter as it was at the beginning of the month.

February thaw? The 15-day GFS model brings milder Pacific air back into Minnesota by the first week of February, the coldest, subzero air dammed up a few hundred miles to our north. No prolonged, subzero outbreaks are in sight right now.

A reinforcing jab of even colder air will brush Minnesota by Thursday/Friday - the core of the coldest air aimed at the Great Lake and New England. The pattern won't be ripe for significant precipitation (of any flavor) looking out the next 10-15 days or so - I could see a nuisance snowfall one week from today - so you won't have to do any serious shoveling or scraping anytime soon. Consider clearing any slush off your driveway or sidewalk today, because within 24 hours or so it'll become a permanent part of your yard as the mercury dwindles towards zero. The last arctic front? Hardly, but I still maintain the worst of winter is in our rear-view mirror. That may be wishful thinking on my part, but with daylight increasing by 1-2 minutes/day and El Nino nudging upper-level steering winds into more of a Pacific-favored, west-to-east flow, the odds of sustained, subzero (highs) drop off fairly quickly during the month of February. I think it's safe to say "the worst is over", but there's still plenty of winter left to enjoy/endure.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Windy with light snow, maybe 1-2" - roads becoming slippery. Winds: NW 15-30. High: 27 (early) falling to 20 by the dinner hour.

Tonight: Partial clearing, colder with wind chills dipping to -20 at times. Low: 2

Tuesday: Flurries giving way to cold sun. High: 12

Wednesday: Blue sky, colder than average. High: 10

Thursday: Intervals of sun, passing flakes, still storm-free. High: 9

Friday: Mix of clouds and sun, last nippy day. High: 12

Saturday: Partly sunny, not as numbing. High: 119

Sunday: Clouds increase, flurries late. High: 23

Vikes Warning: New Orleans Threatened

2010-01-23T21:51:00.001-06:00

What a waste of moisture. Too much rain (Saturday), too much dry air aloft (today). Everything that could go wrong DID go wrong for Minnesota snow lovers. For the better part of 10 days we've been talking about an unusual rain event for much of Minnesota this weekend; amazingly, things panned out pretty much as predicted - a cold rain much of yesterday, changing to wet snow today. But here's the rub: just about the time the lowest mile of the atmosphere is cold enough for snow, a surge of dry air direct from the Desert Southwest (the dreaded "dry tongue") is cutting off the most significant precipitation, keeping snow very light today. Getting to that Vikes party/viewing/reception won't be too bad later today, a coating to at most an inch of snow on secondary roads and side streets, temperatures still just (barely) warm enough to keep major roads and freeways mostly-wet.

Barely plowable. A period of light, accumulating snow is still likely from late Sunday night into Monday. Models are suggesting 1-3" of snow from St. Cloud into the Twin Cities. Travel conditions will gradually deteriorate today as the mercury drops below freezing, but I have a hunch that Minnesota's highways will be in much worse shape Monday into Tuesday morning, the result of a couple inches of snow coupled with temperatures in the teens and 20s. Give yourself extra time to get around town Monday and Tuesday AM.

Outlook: a very quiet Superdome by Q4. Morning showers in New Orleans, some PM sun, high near 68. Vikes by 7.

Get this: moisture wrapping around our ill-fated Great Lakes storm will approach from the NORTH late Sunday night and Monday, we may still wind up with a couple inches of snow, and travel conditions will go steadily downhill as the mercury drops through the 20s, gusty northwest winds picking up on the backside of this rare January slop-storm. That said, Saturday's soaking rain turned our snow to mush, and now that mush will freeze solid this week as daytime highs flounder in the teens to near 20, a couple degrees below average - but not quite as numbing as it was in late December and the first week of January. The GFS is still hinting at 20s returning by the first week of February, even a shot at 30.

An inevitable downward spiral. No more 30s in sight for the next 7-9 days. The same storm that dumped unusual amounts of rain (and ice) on Minnesota will inhale a fresh burst of numbing Canadian air into Minnesota - shortly it will feel like classic late January weather!

No more significant storms are showing up on the horizon, long-range models hinting at an inch or two of snow roughly 7-8 days from now. A word to the wise: even though all thoughts are on our beloved Vikings today, sneak outside and try to get the water/slush off your driveway or sidewalk today, because if you don't - it'll turn into an icy, cement-like, immovable coating of sheer ice within 24-36 hours. Yes, this is the coldest week of the year (on average) and Old Man Winter is about to prove it to us. We've been pampered for the better part of 2 weeks, but a serious reality check is right around the corner.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Overcast with a cold wind, periods of (very) light snow/flurries. Coating to an inch possible. Mainly wet major roads/freeways, some snow on side-streets by this evening and tonight. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 34

Tonight: Light snow, roads become increasingly slick. Low: 23

Monday: Light snow, another 1-2" (total of 1-3" from this system). High: 24

Tuesday: Flurries taper, PM sun, much colder. High: 15 Low: -1

Wednesday: Bright sun, numbing breeze. High: 16 Low: -5

Thursday: Mix of clouds and sun, few degrees colder than average. High: 18

Friday: Plenty of sun. High: 19

Saturday: Drier day of the weekend, fading sun. High: 22

Sunday: Cloudy, a little light snow possible late. High: 24

Blame El Nino

2010-01-22T21:37:00.001-06:00

Rain in late January? Where are we living - Little Rock? Memphis? Wichita? On some level it's a little hard to comprehend the notion of LIQUID precipitation falling during one of the coldest 10 days of the entire year (at least on paper). But to quote Vonnegut, "and so it goes." The current pattern is consistent with kinds of atmospheric symptoms observed during a moderate El Nino event, a warming of equatorial Pacific Ocean water, which tends to increase the frequency/intensity of storms hitting California - with a much more active storm track over the southern U.S. than usual during the winter months. During El Nino winters the deep south tends to be wetter and cooler than average, a more pronounced Pacific flow penetrating farther inland, keeping the northern tier states of the U.S. (including Minnesota) warmer than average. We sailed through December and the first week of January with no real El Nino signal showing up on the maps, but since about Jan. 7 North America has entered a milder, stormier, more Pacific-influenced pattern. Today's rain storm may, on some level, be a bi-product of this cyclical warming of Pacific water which kicks in every 4-6 years. As in all things meteorological - it's awfully tough connecting the dots, proving cause and effect.

An unfavorable track for statewide snow. A perfect track for snow runs across central Iowa over La Crosse and Eau Claire, Wisconsin. In the case of this weekend's storm the track will be a couple hundred miles too far west, dragging unusually warm air well north, sparking a cold rain instead of moderate/heavy snow. Colder air filtering in on the backside of the storm Sunday and Monday will spark a period of snow, but only the Dakotas and parts of the Red River Valley will see all-snow.

Watches, warnings and advisories. A glaze ice risk south/east of the Twin Cities (especially early Saturday morning). Although mostly-rain is expected Saturday over southern and even central MN, the farther north/west you drive, the better the odds of running into a wintry mix of rain/ice/snow. Warnings are posted for far western Minnesota, where much of the precipitation will fall as snow - and a good 6-8"+ is possible by Monday night.

The same storm that battered California with drenching rains, high winds, rare January tornadoes, thunder, lightning and hail - sparking a series of mudslides and precautionary evacuations in the suburbs of L.A. will churn northward across the Plains today, yanking unusually warm air unusually far north. Snow requires sub-freezing temperatures throughout the lowest mile of the atmosphere; even a shallow layer of air > 32 F can instantly melt snow and turn it into a cold rain - such will be the case today, highs reaching the low to mid 30s. Across far western and northern Minnesota cold surfaces may trigger a period of dangerous glaze ice, even a few hours of sleet (ice pellets). The Dakotas and much of the Red River Valley should remain cold enough for mostly snow, and it may wind up being quite an impressive pile by Monday, some 10-15" amounts aren't out of the question. But the main surge of moisture, coming today, will be rain for much of southern and even central Minnesota. Too bad for snow lovers. Conservatively, had temperatures been only 5 degrees colder, we'd be looking at over a foot for much of the area. I've said it before: this almost looks more like a March slop-storm, not something you'd expect to experience during the dead of winter. Odd.

Latest snowfall prediction. Rain/ice Saturday gives way to a changeover to wet snow Sunday, and despite a brief break (dreaded "dry tongue" sweeping in from the southwest) moisture wraps all the way around the storm, keeping light snow in the forecast from late Sunday into Tuesday morning. A couple inches of slush may pile up in the Twin Cities, closer to 2-5" for the St. Cloud area, 6-8" from Brainerd to Detroit Lakes, Wheaton and Moorhead.

PROVING that snow lovers in Minnesota lead quiet, desperate lives, by the time it's actually cold enough for snow (Sunday) a surge of dry air will sweep in from the Desert Southwest, what some geeky, socially-stunted meteorologists (no, not me!) lovingly refer to as the "dreaded dry tongue." Sounds like something you might see on the menu of a bad deli. It's nearly as disappointing, at least for a significant number of Minnesotans who LIKE snow! Seems like we're being cheated, punished by a preternaturally fickle Old Man Winter, but so it goes with big, mature storms. The bigger the storm, the higher the likelihood of dry air wrapping into the storm's circulation - causing the heaviest snow, rain or ice to taper off to a fine mist, drizzle or flurries. Eventually snow will wrap completely around the storm (approaching from the north!) and trigger an inch or two for MSP by midday Monday. But parts of central Minnesota may still experience a "plowable" snowfall, as much as 2-5" or more, with some 6-8"+ amounts west of Willmar, Alexandria, Wadena on north toward Brainerd, Pequot Lakes and Bemidji. A coold 10-12" may still pile up from Moorhead north to Grand Forks and Thief River Falls. In general, the farther north/west you drive across the state, the worse travel conditions will become, with more precipitation falling as snow, less ice and rain.

So close and yet so far. Oh well. There's always the next storm. And if you want to see a cool foot of snow load the kids up in the car and just drive west. Eventually you'll run into more snow than you know what to do with!

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Winter Weather Advisory. Icy mix giving way to a period of rain, windy and raw. Winds: SE 15-25 High: 36

Tonight: Rain changes to wet snow by morning. Low: 33

Sunday: A changeover to mostly snow - starts to accumulate by PM hours. High: 34 (falling into the 20s by evening).

Monday: Windy and colder with periods of light snow, another inch or so (totals from 1-3" from this entire storm system). High: 23

Tuesday: Flurries taper. Cold sun returns - better travel conditions. High: 17 Low: -5

Wednesday: Bright sun, few degrees cooler than average. High: 18

Thursday: Mix of clouds and sun. High: 19

Friday: Sun giving way to increasing clouds. High: 17

The GFS is hinting at more 30s from Feb. 2 - 7. This next cold spell will NOT be as long (or as deep) as late December into early January.

Storm Update - Weekend Slop-Storm

2010-01-22T11:04:00.003-06:00

1-10", give or take. I wasn't kidding with the massive snowfall range I predicted earlier. Click on the map to take it full-screen and you'll see the (incredible) contrast from the eastern suburbs of St. Paul (maybe a slushy inch?) to Brainerd, where 10" may pile up by Monday. Again (disclaimer time), a slight shift in the storm track, even 50-75 miles, could make the difference between a couple inches and a major snowfall. People in Wadena, Detroit Lakes and Cross Lake can look forward to a significant new pile of white in their yards by Monday, but from Monticello, Elk River and Delano south/east towards the Twin Cities, Mankato and Cannon Falls, the vast bulk of the heaviest precipitation will probably fall as rain.

11 am Friday Update

Just got a look at the latest guidance: still feel fairly comfortable (wrong word) with 3-6" for the greater St. Cloud area, but less for the Twin Cities, possibly 2-4" (4" western 'burbs) with a higher percentage of rain/ice for the southeastern half of Minnesota. A significant percentage of precipitation this weekend will fall as rain (mainly Saturday). The farther north/west you travel across Minnesota, the less rain you'll see, more precipitation falling as snow/sleet/freezing rain. Parts of the Red River Valley and far western MN (near the Dakota line) could still pick up 8-12" of snow by Monday, but between a changeover to rain - and the "dreaded dry tongue", a surge of dry air sweeping in from the Desert Southwest, snow amounts will quickly taper as you approach the Twin Cities - Rochester/Winona may be lucky to pick up 1-2" of slushy snow at the tail-end of this messy storm late Sunday into Monday. Expect mainly wet (major) roads tomorrow with mostly-rain, but a changeover back to snow is still likely Sunday as the atmosphere cools, but the latest guidance is strongly hinting at dry air cutting off the heaviest snow Sunday - the real action shifts farther east into Wisconsin, closer to the actual storm track.

Tracking the dreaded "dry tongue". Check out the surge of dry air wrapping into the storm circulation by noon on Sunday. The heaviest precipitation (mostly rain) is forecast to be over Wisconsin and Illinois - if the NAM model verifies the snow should be very light for much of Sunday, good news if you're trying to get to a Vikes party later in the afternoon. Moisture will wrap around the Great Lakes storm, meaning light snow lingering into much of Monday. I don't expect travel conditions to improve significantly until Tuesday, when temperatures fall into the teens. Yes, it's going to get cold again, but only for 4-5 days. Long-range guidance is hinting at more 20s, even a shot at 30 by the first week of February.

Tracking a major slop-storm

2010-01-21T21:14:00.001-06:00

Just once I'd like a winter storm that is black and white, not some nebulous, hard-to-fathom shade of gray. Here's the sad, exhilarating truth about meteorology: weather patterns may be similar, but every day is a new creation, every storm a new challenge. The truth? The following forecast should come with a disclaimer, like a pack of cigarettes. The computer models we rely on (for any forecast beyond 24 hours) are wildly divergent, one of them is definitely out-to-lunch. The GFS is hinting at a foot of snow for much of central Minnesota (see below), while the NAM model is only predicting 3-5" for St. Cloud, and 2-3" of heavy, wet, slushy snow for the Twin Cities.

More colors = more weather headaches. Check out the dizzying weather menu of watches, warnings and advisories - blizzard warnings as far south as Mexico (!) The same storm that battered California will tap moisture from the Gulf of Mexico before turning north toward Minnesota, shoving a shield of ice, rain and snow into the state (in that approximate order) tonight through Sunday. Get ready for a very sloppy weekend, everything under the sun (except the sun). For the very latest NOAA warnings click here.

I'm leaning toward the (lesser) NAM solution, a few inches of snow Sunday into Monday morning during the last half of the storm, a significant percentage of precipitation falling as rain, freezing rain and sleet, keeping ultimate, final amounts down. A few stormy headlines that are top of mind:

1). The farther west you live in the great state of Minnesota the heavier the final snow amounts. I still think parts of far western Minnesota, from Windom to Wheaton to Detroit Lakes and Moorhead could wind up with 6-12" of snow by the time the flakes stop flying Monday.

2). Rain and ice. A southerly surge of unusually mild air aloft should switch snow/ice over to mostly rain much of Saturday over all of southern and central Minnesota. The only problem? Ground temperatures may still hold below freezing, causing rain to freeze on contact with cold surfaces: trees, powerlines and highways. A period of significant icing is very possible from southwestern Minnesota (where there is still 15-22" of snow on the ground) into parts of central Minnesota Saturday. The farther north/west you travel, away from St. Cloud on Saturday, the better the odds of running into some icy patches.

3). By Sunday most of the precipitation will fall as snow, and travel conditions will get progressively worse as the day goes on. I'm nervous about all those Viking playoff games scheduled for late Sunday. Getting to the party will be tough enough, getting home could be a real mess. Leave extra time to get around, especially Sunday PM hours.

4). Final snowfall tallies are very much up in the air, but one thing is inevitable & unavoidable: colder air will get sucked back into Minnesota on the backside of the storm; we'll all be shivering and complaining about the (%$&#*%@#!!) wind chill by the middle of next week. Our 30-degree party has a definite shelf-life, within 72 hours it will feel like an old fashioned Minnesota January.

5). Temperatures run a few degrees below average from Jan. 26-31, about 4-5 numbing days (but NOT as cold as early January was). Long-range models are hinting at more 20s and 30s by the first week of February, just in time for Groundhog Day!

A tale of two weather models. The GFS model is hinting at some 8-12"+ snowfall amounts by Monday over the northwestern half of Minnesota. The farther east the storm tracks, the less warm air will reach into central and southern Minnesota, meaning less rain/ice and more snow.

Reality check? The NAM model isn't nearly as impressive in terms of final snowfall amounts, suggesting a more westerly storm track, a longer, more widespread period of rain/ice that will keep final snowfall tallies lower. The NAM solution is hinting at 3-5" for St. Cloud, maybe 1-3" for the Twin Cities. I have a hunch the NAM will be closer to reality.

Current snow cover. I'm concerned about the 18-24" of snow on the ground over far southwestern Minnesota, south/west of the Minnesota River. The deeper the snow, the greater the "refrigerant" effect: the snow cooling the air from below. Where this becomes critical is when the air temperature is close to freezing. A heavy snow pack might favor keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler, favoring freezing rain vs. (liquid) rain. Roads may stay icy (longer) over far southwestern Minnesota Saturday, especially during the morning hours. The latest DNR information is here.

We'll get a (minor) break today, a little freezing drizzle leaking out of a slate-gray sky at times, but with temperatures in the upper 20s to near 30 major roads (certainly all the freeways) should be mostly-wet, the commute not too terrible out there. A surge of heavier precipitation arrives Friday night, and it may start as a mix of wet snow, sleet (ice pellets) and some freezing rain - changing over to rain during the day Saturday as temperatures edge past 32 F. south of a line from St. Cloud to Princeton, some mid 30s are possible from the Twin Cities to Rochester and Winona, keeping roads mostly-wet. If your Saturday travels take you to Brainerd, Wadena or even Willmar, the odds of running into patchy ice will increase the farther north & west you drive. You have been forewarned. At least by Sunday precipitation will be snow - and traction on snow is an order of magnitude more manageable than trying to slip and slide around on glaze ice.

It sounds like cheap, promotional hype (not above that, btw) but we scan 4 new computer runs/day. If the storm zigs farther west more warm air will get wrapped into the storm's circulation - we'll wind up with more rain, less snow. But if the storm zags 50-100 miles farther east, then the surge of warm air will be focused on southeastern MN and Wisconsin, keeping more of our precipitation falling as snow, and suddenly the (much snowier) GFS solution could wind up verifying. Insert deep sigh here. The bottom line: prepare for a very sloppy weekend. I'd recommend zipping out to the store, getting errands done today, because I have a hunch travel conditions will slowly deteriorate as the weekend goes on. Mostly rain & ice Saturday, turning over to mostly snow on Sunday as temperatures fall through the low 30s into the 20s. Best case scenario (for snow lovers): far western Minnesota gets plastered with a foot of snow. Worst case: the storm is strong enough (and far enough west) for warm air to reach western counties, keeping amounts in the 4-8" range by Monday morning.

Check back often, the one thing that seems certain: the forecast will change as the (final) storm track crystallizes. Looks like a good weekend to hibernate, maybe watch a little football Sunday? Be careful out there...

* Icy conditions for the U.S. Pond Hockey Championship today and Saturday, changing to mostly rain for a time Saturday, before changing back to snow Sunday. Leave extra time to get between events.

* St. Paul Winter Carnival: temperatures rise above 32 by 10 am Saturday, some melting of snow/ice sculptures is probably inevitable the first half of the weekend, but the mercury should drop below freezing again by the breakfast hour on Sunday morning. No problem next week as temperatures tumble through the 20s into the teens. Yes, Boreas will kick some serious butt next week.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Overcast (windy) with patchy fog, drizzle and freezing drizzle. Roads may be icy in the outlying suburbs. Winds: East 10-20, gusty. High: near 30

Tonight: Steadier winter mix moves in, wet snow, sleet and freezing rain. Very icy conditions possible, especially in the outlying suburbs. Low: 28

Saturday: Ice quickly changes over to mostly rain - freeways/major highways become wet, but roads from southwest through central counties may be very icy in spots. High: 35

Saturday night: Mostly rain, mixing with wet snow late. Low: 33

Sunday: A changeover to snow, potentially heavy at times - accumulating by PM hours. High: 33 (falling into the 20s by evening).

Monday: Light snow tapers to flurries, total accumulations of 2-4"+ possible (a half foot possible near St. Cloud, with some 8-14" amounts possible far western MN). High: 23

Tuesday: Sunshine reappears - much better travel conditions. High: 18

Wednesday: Subzero start, bright sun. High: 17

Thursday: Partly cloudy, a few degrees cooler than average. High: 16

Icy Update, Midday Thursday

2010-01-21T12:08:00.001-06:00

Noon, Thursday Update

Where's the snow, Paul? Good question: the models weakened the latest frontal band (slightly), pushing back most of the light snow/freezing rain/freezing drizzle until tonight. As you can see on Doppler, most of the light precipitation (mixed, wintry precip) is north of the Twin Cities. Conditions will remain ripe for very light snow/ice through the morning hours on Friday, I don't think the PM commute will be terrible today, but the drive in tomorrow may be quiet a bit tougher than usual. Freezing drizzle/flurries taper off for a time during the day tomorrow before the main storm arrives this weekend.

Yuck. Advisories for glaze ice far southeastern Minnesota, dense ice fog southwestern counties, and a winter storm watch for much of the Red River Valley - we're surrounded by weather headaches! The risk of ice will increase into the nighttime hours tonight, the main surge of moisture arrives this weekend, rain, sleet, changing to mostly-snow by Sunday. Something for the entire family!

It still looks like a period of rain/freezing rain for most of central/eastern MN Saturday, changing over to mostly-snow Sunday, with a potential for a few inches of accumulation during the latter half of this storm - roads may be in fairly bad shape by late Sunday and Sunday night, with icy conditions spilling over into AM Rush on Monday. The changeover to rain/ice still looks fairly likely Saturday, the bulk of the precipitation holding off until late Saturday and Saturday night. The earlier you get your errands done Saturday, the better. Travel conditions Sunday will probably go downhill as the day goes on, as snow starts to stick, even on main roads and freeways (especially after sunset Sunday around 5:30 pm). The drive home, after a (victorious) NFL Championship game Sunday could be VERY, VERY TRICKY.

We'll keep you posted. Bottom line: we're still expecting some freezing rain/drizzle, mixed with a little wet snow, little more than a coating of slush - I'm more concerned about glaze ice with surface temperatures holding in the mid 20s. Allow extra time to get around town first thing Friday. A sloppy, almost March-like storm is still on the way for the weekend, starting as rain/freezing rain. If it were all snow we'd be looking at 4-6", maybe 10" for western Minnesota, but I think a significant amount of precipitation will fall as rain, keeping final snowfall amounts down quite a bit. Strange to be throwing around the R-word during the coldest week of winter, huh?

Weekend Outlook: 1-12"

2010-01-20T21:13:00.002-06:00

Weather Headlines

ICE ALERT !!!

* Nuisance snow event today, mixing with freezing drizzle - significant icing possible, around 1" of slush expected.

* Better travel conditions Friday.

* Main event arrives Saturday, mixing with rain and freezing rain (central/western MN).

* Changeover to snow Sunday, "plowable" snow still possible for central Minnesota, some 8-12"+ amounts possible over the western third of Minnesota by Monday.

* Huge west-east contrast in potential snowfall amounts: couple inches for the Twin Cities, potential for 3-6" St. Cloud, over 10" possible west of Willmar and Wadena.

* Turning colder next week, back into the teens as heavy coats/parkas return.

Hi, I'm Paul. I'll be your weather-server today. Here's a menu - I'll give you a few minutes to look it over. I should warn you you'll probably need a strong stomach to get through this. Take a deep breath. Deeper. The appetizer arrives today, about an inch of slushy snow, washed down with freezing drizzle, capable of a tasteless coating of ice capable of fender-benders and a few painful falls. Buyer beware.

Gray hairs for meteorologists. Hey, I'm happy to have any hair at this point in my life - color is optional, but you can see why we're nervous about the weekend storm. If the storm zigs or zags 75 miles farther west (or east) the ultimate snow amounts will change, possibly dramatically. Either way, the greatest potential for a foot or more of snow will be over far western and southwestern Minnesota.

An end to our weather-honeymoon. Here is predicted snowfall through early next week. The GFS model may be overdoing the amounts a bit (12-16" for far western Minnesota?) But the trends are probably correct, more west, less east - a huge contrast across the state. A forecast of 1-12" would likely get me admitted to the Happy Home for Wayward Weathermen. But in the case of our weekend storm, looking at the entire state, it's probably an "accurate" prediction!

Yesterday this same frontal zone sparked a severe ice event across Iowa (more than 1" of glaze ice in western Iowa, near Storm Lake, Cherokee and Dennison). There is absolutely, positively nothing worse than glare ice. Four-wheel drive, front-wheel drive, nothing short of a Sherman tank will get you around town (safely) when there is severe icing. It's especially insidious: you look out the window and it looks like plain old rain. But step outside (and expect to wind up in a horizontal position - against your will). Again, falls on ice trigger nearly as many emergency room visits every year as traffic accidents, which is hard to fathom. That's what seniors are terrified of (among other things). It's not snow, but ice, and the risk of falling, breaking a hip, winding up in the hospital, contracting an infection.... I'll stop now, but you get the picture. Bottom line: in spite of a (lousy) inch or so of actual snow today the ice component may result in commute times double, even triple average. Leave PLENTY of extra time to get around town today.

Computer forecast for noon Saturday. The center of the storm is predicted to be over northern Iowa, the rain/snow line draped right over central Minnesota - mostly rain for the Twin Cities, a rain/snow mix for St. Cloud, mostly snow for far western Minnesota (where the heaviest snow amounts are expected from our weekend storm, possibly a foot or more by Monday).

We come up for air tomorrow as precipitation tapers to flurries, even a little freezing drizzle, but I expect roads to be a slightly better shape, highs in the upper 20s to near 30, most freeways and major highways (that have been treated by MnDOT) just wet/slushy, as opposed to icy. Take advantage of a brief lull in the storm to stock up on, well, whatever needs stocking up on, because the weather will progressively go downhill over the weekend. This seems likely: travel conditions will get worse as the weekend wears on - a period of rain on Saturday (yes RAIN during the coldest week of winter, on average) will mean mainly wet roads, but some icing is still possible on secondary roads and side streets, especially west of St. Cloud and Hutchinson. As a soggy, southern storm tracks directly over Minnesota Sunday the atmosphere will cool, mixed precipitation changing back over to mostly snow, and it should start to accumulate by the PM hours Sunday. The drive to that Vikes game could be a bit precarious, temperatures dipping below 30, previously wet roads becoming snow-covered, especially after dark (around 5:30 pm or so). The models go back and forth on snow amounts, the latest GFS computer forecast is a bit more aggressive/impressive when it comes to snow amounts, especially across the western third of Minnesota, where a cool foot of snow can't be ruled out by Monday. It looks like a MAJOR contrast in snow from west to east: over a foot west of Willmar and Wadena, 10-15" amounts possible from Windom to Alexandria to Detroit Lakes, maybe 3-6" in St. Cloud, while the Twin Cities will be lucky to see 1-3" of snow late Sunday into Monday morning. The main surge of dry air wrapping into the storm (the dreaded "dry tongue") now looks like it may sweep into Wisconsin, not eastern Minnesota. My confidence level is still low, the weekend forecast still has "high bust potential" (meaning there is a LOT that can go wrong with this forecast), but I feel reasonably confident about a few things:

1). About 1" of slush today, mixed with ice.

2). Period of rain/ice Saturday, which will keep amounts down over central and southeastern MN. Far western Minnesota may see mostly snow Saturday and Sunday, and that's why there's a potential for a cool foot of snow to pile up west of Willmar.

3). Changeover to mostly snow Sunday, from west to east, travel conditions getting worse as the day goes on.

4). Light snow lingering into Monday - travel conditions still very poor as we star the work week.

5). Turning much colder next week, highs stuck in the teens by Tuesday/Wednesday.

Stay tuned - four new computer runs come in every day (joy). Each new run may have a new solution on the ultimate storm track. A jog of 75 miles farther west or east could make the difference between 2" and 10" in this kind of a pattern. If a changeover to rain does NOT happen we could be looking at a very, large pile of snow, especially central Minnesota. That's possible, but still unlikely, the odds less than 30% Then again, when it comes to Minnesota weather, everything that can go wrong WILL go wrong, usually at the worst possible time, for example, during an NFC Championship Football Game featuring our amazing Vikings.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Light snow likely, mixing with a little freezing drizzle. Around 1" of accumulation possible. Winds: east 10-15. High: 28

Tonight: Light snow tapers to flurries. Low: 24

Friday: Overcast, a few more flurries - better travel. High: near 30

Saturday: Mostly rain, freezing on contact with some surfaces outside the metro. High: 35

Sunday: Changeover to snow, travel conditions getting worse as the day goes on. High: 32 (falling)

Monday: Light snow, total accumulations from the storm may go over 2-4", considerably more over central Minnesota. Far western MN could pick up over 10" of snow by Monday. High: near 20

Tuesday: Partly sunny, much better travel conditions. High: 17

Wednesday: Sunny start, clouds increase, few degrees cooler than average. High: 18

A taste of March in January

2010-01-19T23:06:00.000-06:00

The rumors are true: the weather honeymoon is drawing to a close; Minnesota's weather will become stormier, travel more problematic as the week goes on. As is often the case, Mother Nature is about to throw us a curve. In spite of the St. Paul Winter Carnival kicking off the 10 coldest days of the year (on average) an unusually strong storm - tracking unusually far south and west of Minnesota - will pull enough warm air north for a period of rain and freezing rain (rain freezing into glaze ice on contact with cold surfaces) by Friday night and Saturday. Snow lovers are indignant, as well they should be: if this were a typical January with highs in the teens (north) and low 20s (south) we'd be looking at 12-16"+ of snow by Monday of next week. So close, and yet so far.

Icy possibilities. What month is this again? The maps look more like early March than mid January. An inch or two of slush is possible tomorrow, but the main event arrives this weekend, the atmosphere aloft just mild enough for snowflakes to melt into raindrops, potentially freezing on contact with cold surface. The best chance of icy headaches? Saturday morning (early). Again: Saturday night.

Potential for a "plowable snow"? The GFS model is still hinting at 3-6" of snow Sunday into Monday, but precipitation Saturday should fall as a mix of snow, sleet, even some freezing rain (glaze ice) across central Minnesota. I still believe St. Cloud will pick up more snow than the Twin Cities, where more precipitation will fall as rain/freezing rain. Stay tuned for snowfall updates, but right now I'm leaning toward 3-5" for the St. Cloud area Saturday night into Monday morning. (For the record: I don' think the Twin Cities will see 6" of snow from this system, too much rain wrapping into the storm - I'm thinking more like 2-4" for Minneapolis & St. Paul by Monday).

Strange trends for the coldest week of winter. Check out the predicted temperature trend (top chart) showing temperatures at, even above freezing into the weekend. The bottom chart shows predicted snowfall amounts, spiking upward by Sunday/Monday as colder air filters back into the storm's circulation. In short: expect a king-size MESS this weekend!

Tuesday afternoon tornado warnings were issued for south central Los Angeles. No typo there - that's how violent and energetic the latest Pacific storm is, sweeping inland with torrential rains, hail and high water. One wrinkle of moisture and energy ejecting northeastward from the Four Corners region of the Desert Southwest will spark a little snow/sleet mix Wednesday night into Thursday, models still hinting at 1/2 to 2" of slushy/icy snow across much of Minnesota tomorrow. Give yourself some extra time to get around town, I expect commute times to be double, even triple normal, air temperatures holding in the mid/upper 20s, meaning potentially snow-covered secondary roads, let's hope treated major highways/freeways are mostly wet and slushy. Friday should be a better travel day, in-between storm systems, as we wait for the Main Event.

Guess the storm track! The heaviest snow is almost always 100-300 miles north/west of the actual storm track. Parts of the Dakotas may pick up 8-12"+ snow from the weekend storm, but a jog to the northwest may pull enough mild air northward for a changeover to sleet/rain/ice on Saturday, keeping amounts down, especially south/east of St. Cloud.

Anatomy of a slop-storm. By Saturday evening at 6 pm the storm is forecast to be stuck over southeastern South Dakota, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico pin-wheeling into Minnesota. This projected track would be far enough south/west of us for warm air to wrap completely around the storm circulation, triggering a mixed-bag of snow, ice, even a few hours of rain Saturday. Most of the accumulating snow should come Sunday into Monday morning, as the storm pushes east, toward the Great Lakes, and the entire column of the atmosphere begins to cool down.

The storm now slamming into California with gale force winds, mudslides and raging fits of thunder and lightning will cross the Rockies, gulping down vast quantities of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico late in the week, before turning almost due north over the weekend, pushing a shield of "precipitation" into Minnesota Friday night and Saturday. Notice I said precipitation, a wonderfully vague word, which could mean almost anything under the sun, except for the sun. To get all snow temperatures (usually) have to be colder than 32 throughout the lowest mile or so of the atmosphere. Even a thin layer of air > 32 F. can turn falling snowflakes into rain, dashing the hopes and expectations of snow-lovers stuck on the ground far below. A perfect storm track for snow runs from Kansas City and Des Moines to near La Crosse and Eau Claire, keeping Minnesota on the colder, northern side of the storm track. But this area of low pressure shows signs of "hooking" to the northwest, pushing into South Dakota (!) That, in turn, will probably yank enough mild air north for a significant period of sleet (ice pellets), changing to freezing rain (glaze ice) then finally over to plain-old-liquid-rain during the day Saturday, turning our snow to slush and mush (as I feared more than a week ago). As the storm does a big loop and finally tracks due east, then northeast across Wisconsin, toward the Great Lakes, a changeover back to mostly-snow is likely Sunday, finally tapering Monday. By then there may be 1-3" of new snow on the ground for southeastern MN, but a band of 3-6" is still very possible across central Minnesota (including St. Cloud), probably less near the Twin Cities - more like 2-3" - possibly 4" far northern and western suburbs.

The St. Paul (Messy) Carnival. Look at the bright side: no 40s or 50s this year. St. Paul may pick up an inch of sloppy snow Thursday, but rain may put a temporary damper on the fun Saturday, what may be the messiest day of the 10 day adventure. Temperatures cool back down into the 20s most of next week; the snow & ice sculptures should be in better shape by then.

We've been living on borrowed time in the temperature department, readings a good 10-15 degrees above average. The GFS model is now (strongly) suggesting a return to much colder weather next week (teens north, 20s south); an even colder push for the first few days of February, some single digits highs up north, maybe a week's worth of subzero lows for much of the state. I don't think it'll be as brutal as early January, but it will definitely get your attention. Our midwinter intermission was nice while it lasted, a welcome, nearly 2 week reprieve from the coldest, most controversial winds of winter. Old Man Winter got a "time out", but nights are (still) long, there's still a lot of snow lurking to our north - at some point the laws of physics kick in and the Yukon Express starts to roll once more. Give it about a week to 10 days, there will be no doubt in your mind that spring is NOT right around the corner.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Mostly cloudy - hanging onto good travel conditions. Winds: E 10-15. High: 27

Tonight: Chance of a little light snow, freezing drizzle. Low: 22

Thursday: Light snow, mixed with freezing drizzle at times, a slushy, slippery, icy inch possible. High: 28

Friday: Temporarily improving conditions - overcast, damp and gray. High: 30

Saturday: Wintry mix changes to mostly rain - very slippery/icy outside of town. High: 34

Sunday: Changeover back to mostly snow, starts to accumulate. Potential for 2-4" or more of snow by Sunday night. High: 31

Monday: Light snow quickly tapers to flurries, slowly improving travel conditions, turning colder. High: 20

Tuesday: Partly sunny and chilly, a few degrees cooler than average. High: 18

Wednesday: Yep, feels like a real January again. Intervals of sun, delightfully numb. High: 15

January fluke: ice & rain

2010-01-18T20:23:00.002-06:00

What could be more unlikely than the Vikes going to the Superbowl? How 'bout a cold rain during what is (on average) the coldest week of winter. Unusual, rare, but hardly unprecedented. Unusually strong storms roaring out of the Gulf of Mexico are often accompanied by not only copious moisture, but a surge of warm air capable of turning snow over to ice, even rain. Granted, this is far more typical in mid March than mid January, but we've all come to expect the unexpected in this neck of the woods, right? Nobody ever said this would be boring...

Forecast for Sunday in New Orleans: a jubilant sea of purple & gold, thunderous cheers, lightning-fast sacks, slippery (Saints) turnovers, high probability of a very quiet local crowd in the fourth quarter, significant risk of a rout. Degree of confidence: moderate to high. (check out the eye on that beast! Hurricane Brett is coming ashore. Time to warn the local residents).

We salvage one more dry, storm-free, blue-sky day, enough sun dribbling through for highs well up into the 20s, a good 5-10 degrees warmer than average. A weak bubble of high pressure hangs on long enough to ensure a dry commute into work or school Wednesday morning, but clouds quickly stream in tomorrow, the atmosphere capable of a light mix of wet snow, sleet, and freezing rain Wednesday night into Thursday. This will just be the first shot, the atmospheric appetizer, but roads may become slushy and slippery Thursday, highs holding a few degrees below freezing. My hunch: freeways and major state highways (treated) will probably be mostly-wet, but the side-streets may become glazed with ice.

Potential for Thursday icing. Ice potential forecast valid midnight Wednesday night. Many of the ingredients are coming together for significant freezing rain and sleet (ice pellets) Thursday morning as the first wave of moisture/energy pushes northeastward across the Plains. The only saving grace: temperatures will be in the upper 20s, so freeways and major state highways (that are treated by MnDOT) may be mostly-wet. But secondary roads could - in theory - be coated with glaze ice.

We catch a brief break on Friday, in-between storms, but it still looks like the main event, the most significant slug of moisture, arrives next weekend. Computer models have been printing out some very impressive, 1.5 to 2" liquid amounts by Monday. Were that all snow it would pile up to about 15-20" of the white stuff. The trouble is: it won't be all snow. Our weekend storm will be vigorous enough to pull unusually mild air northward, warming up the lowest mile to 8,000 feet of the atmosphere, able to turn falling snow into rain, possibly rain freezing on contact with cold surfaces for a time (freezing rain). The bulk of the precipitation may fall as rain Saturday and Saturday night, but as the storm tracks toward Wisconsin into the Great Lakes the airmass overhead will cool off, turning rain over to (mostly) snow on Sunday. Throwing around inch-amounts more than 48 hours before the storm would be reckless and highly premature, but it still looks like a potential for a "plowable" snowfall for much of Minnesota Sunday into Monday morning.

No more arctic air in sight - yet. The most bitter, subzero air has shifted north of the Arctic Circle (these temperatures in Celsius). Steering winds blowing predominately from the Pacific (and from the Gulf of Mexico this weekend) will keep temperatures above average through the end of the month. The 15-day GFS model keeps daytime highs in the 20s and 30s through the first few days of February.

An Olympic-size mess. For much of the last 1-2 weeks daytime highs have been in the 40s and 50s in Vancouver, British Columbia, site of the upcoming Winter Olympics. To make matter worse, unusually mild weather on the slopes has been accompanied by frequent rains, accelerating snow melt. Just when you thought things couldn't get any worse for NBC. Nothing But Controversy. The forecast for this week doesn't look promising, highs mostly in the 40s to near 50 (temperatures below are in Celsius).

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Partly sunny, still dry. Winds: SE 5-10. High: 29

Tonight: Patchy clouds, chilly. Low: 14

Wednesday: Sunny start, clouds increase during the day. High: 28

Wednesday night: Light snow, mixing with freezing rain (ice). Slippery in time for AM Rush on Thursday. Low: 19

Thursday: Period of mixed wintry precipitation, wet snow, ice and rain. Slushy accumulation possible, especially outside the metro area. Freeways: mostly wet, very icy across greater MN. High: near 30

Friday: Overcast - better travel. High: 31

Saturday: Sleet and freezing rain, capable of icing early. Mostly rain by midday/afternoon. Roads may be very slippery far northern/western suburbs, especially early. High: 32

Sunday: Changeover back to mostly snow, potential for a couple inches, possibly enough to plow/shovel by Sunday night. High: 31

Monday: Light snow slowly tapers off to flurries, little additional accumulation by afternoon. High: 28

Prediction: Vikings euphoria (and a messy mix)

2010-01-17T21:47:00.000-06:00

Weather Headlines

* Significant icing possible by midweek, highs in the 20s could mean very slippery secondary roads, while treated freeways, major highways stay mostly-wet.

* Potential for a rain-event Saturday into Sunday morning, possibly glaze ice for the northwestern half of the state.

* Changeover from rain/ice to mostly snow by Sunday PM, potential for a couple inches late Sunday into Monday.

* Outlook for Sunday in New Orleans: morning puddles/rain giving way to some sun, highs frmo 65-70 F.

Be honest: did you even notice the weather Sunday? I vaguely recall a little sunshine and blue sky filtering through, the sound of dripping icicles and gurgling drain-spouts. The National Weather Service insists the high on Sunday was 34 in the Twin Cities (a respectable 13 degrees above average). The NWS reported 51 in St. Cloud yesterday, which is an order of magnitude milder than anywhere else in the state. All I can think is a). milder air aloft was able to mix down to the surface, or b). the official airport thermometer received direct sunlight - which seems rather odd. Check out Sunday's official STC hourly observations (below) for a real meteorological head-scratcher. With sunshine, light winds, and an airmass of Pacific origin drifting overhead the mercury climbed above freezing statewide, with the exception of Rochester, where 14" of snow on the ground prevented temperatures from climbing any higher than 28 F. Even Grand Marais registered an impressive (for mid January) high of 41, nearly 25 degrees above average!

It never rains in southern California. It pours. A Doppler radar mosaic Sunday night showed a powerful storm hitting near L.A., where flooding rains and isolated mudslides are possible this week, at least 5 separate storm impulses hitting the west coast between now and Friday. These storms will weaken slightly after moving inland, but then re-intensify over the southern Plains, tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico before turning north, spreading a mix of wet snow, ice and rain into Minnesota as early as Wednesday-Thursday. The latest (high-res) national Doppler mosaic is here.

Potential for a very sloppy/icy week. The GFS models are consistent in predicting over 1" of liquid precipitation later this week. Much of that moisture may fall as rain or freezing rain, rain freezing (instantly) on surfaces colder than 32 F. With daytime highs stuck in the mid/upper 20s there is a potential for significant ice on highways & sidewalks the later half of the week, especially outside of the Twin Cities.

What the heck was going on in St. Cloud yesterday? Check out the temperature at 11:53 am Sunday. The official print-out said 47, with a high (in-between hours) of 51. Or was it 60. Impossible, right? This is a real head-scratcher. To get a blow-by-blow, hour-by-hour print-out of weather in the Twin Cities for the last 24 hours click here.

With rare 100% accuracy I can predict a severe & widespread outbreak of Vikings-mania this week. Weather will be something of an afterthought (as it should be). The big weather story: the atmosphere will probably be warm enough for mostly-rain later this week, in fact computer models are hinting at nearly 1" of liquid precipitation by Sunday, much of that falling as rain. The models are suggesting a few inches of wet, slushy snow for parts of central and northern Minnesota, but the bulk of the moisture (Thursday, another wave coming in next weekend) may be wet vs. white. Odd for mid January in Minnesota, but certainly not unprecedented. Here in Minnesota we've all come to expect the unexpected, the meteorological exception becomes the norm. Translation: weather at this latitude can be extraordinary, unusual, at times bizarre and downright freaky. Think about it: in just the last few months we've seen heavy, wet snow in mid October, 50s and 60s in November, an early outbreak of subzero weather, and now this: potentially significant rain falling during what his (historically) the coldest week of the entire year! What will this mean for the St. Paul Winter Carnival, which kicks off later this week? Not sure, but it's safe to say weather conditions will not be ideal for snow & ice preservation. Rain, coupled with highs in the low/mid 30s could mean rapid snow-melt by the weekend. I hope I'm wrong about this; but I have a pretty strong feeling we're going to experience a taste of mid March in mid January. Great.

There is a potential for significant icing Wednesday and Thursday, surface temperatures in the teens/twenties, while 3,000 to 5,000 feet above the ground temperatures are above freezing. The result may be sleet (ice pellets) and even a significant period of freezing rain (liquid rain freezing into glaze ice on contact with cold surfaces, powerlines, roads and sidewalks). The timing is tricky, I don't expect any huge headaches today or Tuesday, but by Wednesday a long fetch of moisture direct from the Gulf of Mexico may spark freezing drizzle/rain, with some icing expected Wednesday and Thursday (mixed with wet snow, especially north of St. Cloud and Lake Mille Lacs, where a couple inches of slush may accumulate). Models are still hinting at a brief break in the action Friday into early Saturday, before the next sloppy, southern storm pushes a shield of moisture back into Minnesota late Saturday into Monday. Once again the atmosphere may be (just) warm enough for rain, or freezing rain, much of Saturday into Sunday morning, followed by a gradual changeover to wet snow (from west to east) on Sunday. A few inches of snow may still pile up at the tail-end of the storm Sunday PM into Monday, but at this point that's just hand-waving speculation (as my favorite college professor used to say). He was not fond of "hand-waving arguments."

Photo courtesy of the Star Tribune.

The vacation from snow/ice was nice while it lasted. Prepare for a more challenging week on Minnesota's highways. But the Vikes are going to the NFC Championship. Forgive me for saying this (out loud) but I'm not alone in believing that this is our year. The planets have aligned. I hope to have the opportunity of updating you on Miami weather in the weeks ahead. Wouldn't that be something.

Monthly climate update for the Twin Cities. Looking for a convenient web site to track Twin Cities weather, day by day? Click here to use the National Weather Service's handy climate site. Click on "Minneapolis" and "daily data for a month", then "go" to see the latest.

Risk of a mixed-bag of wintry weather. The latest GFS model is hinting at mostly rain south of I-94, but temperatures aloft may be just cold enough for a couple inches of wet, heavy, slushy snow north/east of St. Cloud and Mille Lacs by Wednesday and Thursday. I'm more concerned about the potential for a significant icing event across central and portions of southern Minnesota, with surface temperatures ranging from 20-25, and rain freezing (instantly) on cold surfaces. Stay tuned.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Partly sunny, cooler than yesterday. Winds: W 3-8. High: near 30

Tonight: Patchy clouds, colder again. Low: 14

Tuesday: A mix of clouds and sun, still dry. High: 28

Wednesday: Cloudy with a chance of freezing rain (ice), possibly mixed with wet snow north of the metro area. High: 27

Thursday: Freezing rain and drizzle possible, significant icing possible outside the downtowns. High: 28

Friday: Mostly cloudy - better travel conditions. High: 29

Saturday: Overcast with a cold rain, freezing on contact with many surfaces - potential for significant ice, especially north/west of the Twin Cities. High: 32

Sunday: Rain/ice changes over to wet snow, potential for a couple inches of slush. High: 30

Monday (Jan. 25). Light snow gradually tapers to flurries. High: 29

January Slush, Mush & Rain?

2010-01-16T21:04:00.001-06:00

Special Prediction: Between noon and 3 pm today the lights may dim. Timid neighbors will break speed limits getting home from church. Streets will be desolate - deserted by 12:01 pm. Store owners will play Solitaire on their PC's. Rumor has it there's a big football game on Fox. Fingers crossed.

Weather Headlines

* January Thaw lingers today, highs close to freezing statewide.

* Cooler Monday through Wednesday with plenty of sun, good travel conditions.

* Icy mix possible Thursday, just nuisance amounts expected.

* Heavier rain/ice by next weekend. Computers hinting at mostly rain next Saturday, ending as a few inches of snow next Sunday - Monday.

Warm enough for rain next weekend? This is a Bufkit image, a meteorological tool, which (strangely) reads from right to left. If you click on the image and bring it full screen you can see the days of the week at the bottom. This is a predicted cross-section, a slice of the atmosphere, showing significant moisture arriving by the weekend on powerful southerly winds at all levels of the atmosphere. I've circled the 0-line (Celsius), with is 32 F. If you look carefully you can see 32+ temperatures more than 7,000 feet above the ground, hinting at a significant rain event late Friday into much of Saturday. I know, not good news for snow lovers hoping to hang on to the 10" of snow currently on the ground.

Yes, this is real progress. A year ago Friday the high was a crisp -6, after waking up to a hair-freezing low of -30. Yesterday's high of 31 (above) was 13 degrees above average for mid January here on the tundra, and with the sun out it felt like a relative bargain. International Falls soared to 43, shattering the old record of 38 set in 1919.

Predicted temperatures aloft for next Saturday at 1 pm. Temperatures throughout the lowest 5,000 - 7,000 feet of the atmosphere are predicted to be warmer than 32 F, warm enough for rain. This "Skew T" analysis tool suggests a cool-down a week from today; I still wouldn't be surprised to see a "plowable" amount of snow at the tail-end of the storm Sunday PM into Monday, Jan. 24.

A cooler front pushes across the state today, yesterday's mild southwest breeze switching around to the northwest with patchy clouds, a few flurries north. Even so, enough mild air may mix down from a few thousand feet above the ground for a shot at freezing. It looks like a good day for Vikings victory (plan on intervals of sun, slushy roads and temperatures near 30 around noon if you're lucky enough to be holding tickets for the big game). A weak shot of Canadian air follows the frontal passage, highs confined to the 20s for the first half of the new week - but blue sky draped overhead will help. Hey, we're heading into what is (historically) the coldest 2 weeks of the entire year. That's why the forecast of RAIN by the weekend is so odd to me. That's right: R-A-I-N. In fact the GFS model prints out nearly 1" of rain late Friday and Saturday, gradually changing over to wet snow Sunday as temperatures aloft begin to chill down again - maybe a few inches of snow at the tail-end of this next big storm.

Outlook for a week from today. The models are fairly consistent bringing a very wet, southern storm due north late in the week, pulling enough warm air into its circulation for a period of rain late Friday into Saturday, probably changing over to wet snow during the day Sunday. The exact timing is very much up in the air, but heavy rain is possible next Saturday, ending (possibly) as a few inches of snow next Sunday and Monday. Stay tuned....

Rain in mid January is no more a sign of climate change than a string of subzero nights earlier this month disproves the theory that man is (inadvertently, accidentally) impacting our climate. These are examples of WEATHER, not climate. Weather: CNN Headline News (without Nancy Grace, please). Climate is the History Channel. Enough of that, but it is a little strange that the 2010 St. Paul Winter Carnival may kick off with moderate rain and highs in the low to mid 30s. Stating the obvious (which I've become damn good at) our 10" of snow currently on the ground is going to get very slushy, mushy, sloppy and soft. If you want "good" snow try to head out today, or the first half of this week.

The Sportsman's Show is going on - next week it's the Boat Show, sure signs that we will (eventually) enjoy a well-deserved spring here in Minnesota. I just checked out the latest GFS extended 15 day computer outlook - it keeps us in the 20s and 30s through the first day of February. No arctic spankings for the next 2 weeks (but we are undoubtedly moving into a stormier, wetter, weather pattern).

I can't prove this scientifically - I haven't seen a research paper or journal article, but based on anecdotal evidence (just following the weather patterns for nearly 3 decades) it seems that we're seeing less arctic air overall, fewer hours below zero. But the arctic punches that do come screaming south of the border seem to be briefer, and more intense, more fleeting. It may be my imagination, but I don't think so. During the decade from 2000 to 2009 the number of nights with 40 below F. nighttime lows from International Falls to the BWCA was a quarter of what it was in the 1970s, when the winters seemed to be harsher, hanging on even longer. Now we seem to get 2 or 3 brief, concentrated smacks of subzero, but the sheer duration of debilitating cold isn't as bad as it was a generation ago. We'll see if it's a fluke, a blip, an aberration, or a true trend.

So there you go - we hang onto a precious January Thaw today, a few degrees cooler Monday through Wednesday, but skies (and roads) should remain dry. A little mixed precipitation may streak into Minnesota from the south as early as Thursday, but the main event (which will first wreak havoc across southern California, sparking flooding rains, mudslides and rare snow within sight of the Hollywood sign in L.A.) arrives next weekend. The majority of precipitation may fall as rain, but Sunday could get increasingly snowy, sloppy and slippery on area highways, some problems lingering into next Monday.

In the meantime say a prayer for the Haitian people, and stock up on heart-healthy food to last you from roughly noon through 3:30 pm. Rumor has it there's a football game on. We'll see if it really is our manifest destiny this year. The short-term forecast calls for a massive front of purple and gold!

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: More clouds than sun, a few passing flurries possible. Winds: NW 5-10. High: 34

Tonight: Patchy clouds. Low: 19

Monday: Partly sunny, few degrees cooler (still well above average). High: 31

Tuesday: More sun, a bit chillier. High: 28

Wednesday: Clouds increase. High: 27

Thursday: A light mix of wet snow, ice, rain possible - potentially slushy. High: 29

Friday: Overcast, a cold rain possible late, possibly freezing on some surfaces. High: 31

Saturday: Rain and freezing rain, possibly heavy. Significant icing possible. High: 33

Sunday: A changeover back to mostly snow. High: 32

Monday (Jan. 25): Snow begins to taper, potential for a couple inches. High: 28

Mourning Haiti's Loss

2010-01-15T21:57:00.001-06:00

"Sometimes, the earth is cruel.

That is ultimately the fundamental lesson here, as children wail, families sleep out of doors, and the dead lie unclaimed in the rubble that once was Port-au-Prince.

Sometimes the rains fall and will not stop. Sometimes the skies turn barren and will not rain. Sometimes the seas rise and smack the shoreline like a fist. Sometimes the wind bullies the land. And sometimes, the land rattles and heaves and splits itself in two.

Sometimes, the earth is cruel.

And always, when it is, we do the same thing. We dig ourselves out. We weep and mourn, we recover and memorialize the dead, we rebuild our homes. And we go on. This is the price of being human. And also,

arguably, the noblest expression.

Sometimes, the earth is cruel, and you have no choice but to accept that as part of the bargain called life. And when it is your turn to deal with it, you do.

But what if it's always your turn?"

A reporter by the name of Leonard Pitts, at the Miami Herald newspaper, wrote this in yesterday's edition - his powerful story is here. Heart-wrenching and horrifying, the news coming out of Haiti seems otherworldly - how can this be happening in the 21st century? I like to believe I'm up on science, but I have to admit to being totally ignorant of the earthquake threat for parts of the Caribbean, who knew a 7.0 earthquake on the Richter Scale was even possible? Our hearts go out to the victims and the survivors and their families. Consider making a donation to the Red Cross. Click here to see more information on how you can help. It's one of the few things I did on Friday that made me feel good. I hope you'll help out - the need down there is overwhelming.

I don't need continuous weather-drama in my life to be a happy meteorologist. It's true that a big, impending storm makes us feel a little more important, but I'm happy to be bored in mid January, relieved that Old Man Winter is cutting us a 7-10 day break. I still believe the absolute WORST OF WINTER is in our rear view mirror. The nasty, barricade-inside-your-family-room, don't-want-to-climb-out-of-bed COLD is probably behind us. We'll see 10-20 more subzero nights, fairly confident about that. But the potential for sustained, sub-freezing and sub-zero weather will drop off in February - I'm going out on a limb here, hope I'm right. We'll see. Soak up the peace and quiet, the utter lack of windchill-babble on the TV & radio, the (vaguely eerie) lack of watches, warnings and advisories, the dire lack of "breaking weather-news" - because the atmosphere is about to shift gears again. My hunch is that the last 7-10 days of January will be much more active, much stormier, with enough warm, moist air bubbling northward from the Gulf of Mexico for a conglomeration of rain, ice and snow.

Dry, storm-free weather lingers through Tuesday, temperatures well above average (today may be the mildest day, enough mild air mixing down from 3,000 to 5,000 feet - where temperatures have been in the 40s and 50s - to pull the mercury above freezing). A few optimistic bank thermometers may register mid to upper 30s today & Sunday, not bad considering we still have a cool 10" of snow on the ground. The National Weather Service has a great description of the cooling effect of snow cover (see below). Recently the coolest temperatures have been over southwestern Minnesota, still buried under 20-30" of snow. It's actually been considerably milder across northern Minnesota, where (ironically) there is less snow on the ground, anywhere from 4-10". The exception: 12-25" along Lake Superior's North Shore, enhanced/spiked by lake effect snows. The inversion overhead has been persistent, trapping clouds, fog (ice fog), even flurries and a little spotty freezing drizzle). The sun is still too weak, too low in the sky, to break through that inversion and mix mild air down to the surface - that's why temperatures in recent days have been a few degrees cooler than we thought they'd be. No excuses: inversions are tough to predict, especially when they'll break.

Latest Snow Cover. The most snow: southwestern Minnesota, where many towns still have 20-30" on the ground. With the exception of the North Shore and Arrowhead snowfall amounts actually decrease the farther north you travel across Minnesota. Sort of an upside-down map. For more details click here.

Our weather menu gets a lot more interesting next week. Within 48-72 hours you'll be hearing about major storms slamming into California, capable of flooding rains, mudslides, even heavy, wet snow falling on the higher terrain just outside San Francisco and Los Angeles. These powerful Pacific storms will track well south, pushing heavy rain and high winds into northern Mexico (!) before turning northeastward across the Plains. The first weak impulse of moisture and energy may spark a period of drizzle/freezing drizzle by the middle of next week - the lowest mile of the atmosphere probably mild enough for a little rain, rain which may freeze on contact with cold surfaces, trees, powerlines, maybe even some secondary roads. With highs well up in the 20s to near 30 I expect most freeways and state highways to just be wet/slushy, but side streets could (in theory) be a mess by next Wednesday and Thursday.

A little Weekend Excitement? The GFS computer has been very consistent run after run, bringing a major storm northward across the Plains, pushing rain/ice into Minnesota late next Saturday/Saturday night (Jan. 23) followed by a changeover to potentially heavy wet snow Sunday (Jan. 24) with light snow possibly lingering into Monday, the 25th. It's still much too early to even issue a WAG estimate on amounts - but this could certainly be "plowable." Yes, the last week of January looks VERY STORMY!

Weather models are still hinting at a much more significant storm pushing northward the weekend of January 23-24. It's still too far out to try to get specific, but this second storm looks more impressive, laden with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico - I could envision a mix of snow/ice/rain next Sunday changing over to heavy wet snow late Sunday (Jan. 24) into Monday (Jan. 25).

Who Knew? Earthquakes in Oklahoma? Yesterday a 3.8 quake rattled Oklahoma City. I don't know about you, but I'm feeling a little better about our arctic fronts, more grateful than ever that there are no active faults running under Minnesota. The USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) has an impressive web site with up-to-date earthquake information here.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Patchy clouds/ice fog possible early, then partly sunny and unseasonably mild. Winds: SW 5-10. High: 32

Tonight: More clouds, more patchy fog. Low: 21

Sunday: Mix of clouds and sun, feel more like late February. Perfect weather for a Vikings victory. High: 34

Monday: Plenty of blue sky, a few degrees cooler. High: 31

Tuesday: Some sun, still quiet, storm-free. High: 28

Wednesday: Cloudy, chance of drizzle or freezing drizzle. High: 29

Thursday: Gray, damp with a little drizzle possible. High: near 30

Friday: Brief break, intervals of sun. High: 31

Saturday (Jan. 23): Gray, period of rain/ice possible late. High: 34

Sunday (Jan 24): Mixed precipitation changing over to snow, potentially heavy at times. High: 31

Winter on hold

2010-01-14T21:44:00.001-06:00

How dry we are. Most of central and southern Minnesota hasn't seen any measurable precipitation since January 1, the exception far southwestern and southeastern counties, a coating to 1 inch for the Minnesota Arrowhead. Next week appears stormier and wetter statewide. To analyze Minnesota precipitation trends for yourself click here.

* St. Cloud breaks through the 30 degree mark, for the first time since Dec. 26, when the high was 36.

* Twin Cities temperatures running 8.6 degrees F below average so far for January, 2010.

* 2.2" of snow for the Twin Cities so far the first half of January (we should have picked up closer to 5" since Jan. 1).

* Nagging inversion (unusually warm air aloft) traps stratus clouds and rare January smog near the ground - air pollution advisory posted for portions of central/southern Minnesota for stagnant, polluted air.

* "No weather" through Tuesday of next week, unusually quiet, storm-free - nothing more than a little ice fog and a few flurries from time to time.

* Potential for an icing event by the middle of next week, maybe a significant snowfall the weekend of Jan. 23-24 (right now Sunday appears to be the snowier day).

* Pattern ripe for VERY significant snow amounts the last week of January. It may be a very snow Winter Carnival 2010. I could see some 1-2 foot amounts for parts of Minnesota during the last 7-9 days of January and the first few days of February. It looks ripe for a snowy DUMPING!

* Coldest start to January for La Crosse, WI since 1979. Temperatures the first 5 days of January average 1.5 F!

Good news on the weather front: you won't have to worry about any epic storms, at least through the first few days off next week. This is about as quiet (read: boring) as the weather ever gets in January, and I'm not complaining one bit. Old Man Winter is going to take a siesta through at least Tuesday of next week. A bubble of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will keep us mild, storm-free and dry through the period, with temperatures 10 to 15° above average. Lately we've had a strong inversion overhead; temperatures a few thousand feet above the ground in the 40s even some 50s! Cold air sinks, warm air rises, so with warm on top of cold means the atmosphere is very stable, serving up a weather menu for that crud, low stratus clouds and even a rare January air pollution event. An air pollution advisory remains in effect today because the inversion overhead is acting like a lid, trapping crud, low clouds and man-made pollutants near the ground. People who suffer from respiratory problems, heart ailments, even kids & athletes who breath deep and hard in the great outdoors should take it a little easier until the air quality improves sometime next week.

A parade of storms. Check out the latest enhanced, infrared satellite image, showing a series of very strong storms off the California coast. Weather models are suggesting a very stormy spell of weather next week for the west coast, with a potential for flash flooding, mudslides, even some snow for the higher hills outside L.A. as early as Monday of next week. NOAA's vast menu of weather satellite image can be found here.

Hey is it just me or are there some tentative signs of spring everywhere you turn? The birds are chirping (at least a few brave, potentially dumb birds lingering near my garage). when I leave in the morning - there's a nice, big smudge of twilight on the western horizon while I drive home around the dinner hour. I'm seeing commercials for the Auto Show, the Boat Show, the Home and Garden Show - even more commercials for fertilizer and seeds so take it for what it is. It's a start, a reminder that milder days are ahead. In the meantime we're in the midst of the coldest 2 weeks of winter, on average. Yes, the St. Paul Winter Carnival kicks off next Thursday, marking what is typically the 10 coldest days of the entire year, based on modern-day records dating back to 1891. We will get slapped around by Canada in February and at least a part of March, but the El Nino signal we've been expecting to see since last autumn is FINALLY kicking in. That could mean warmer-than-average for the second half of the winter. That, and the Vikes may go to the Superbowl. We can hope - we can dream, but it's wise to keep one's expectations in check.

Outlook for noon on Sunday, January 24. A significant storm of southern origin (loaded with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico) is forecast to track almost due north across the Plains, reaching Minnesota by the 24th, preceded and accompanied by accumulating snow, possibly mixing with ice over eastern counties of Minnesota and much of Wisconsin. Timing and amounts? Way too early to even speculate - just no that the models are fairly consistent showing a major storm the weekend after next. By then we will be long overdue for a little "action".

No big storms of any flavor are likely through Tuesday of next week, but at some point this copacetic pattern is going to shift and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will surge northward.
This may lead to a period of light icing (freezing drizzle) by Wednesday of next week, but highs in the upper 20s to 30 could keep most major highways just wet/slushy in spots. A second, stronger storm is forecast to arrive the weekend of January 23-24 and there may be enough cold air in place for significant snow, especially Sunday and Monday, January 24 and 25th. That's purely speculative right (a weather-disclaimer should be required for anything beyond 48 hours, at least in Minnesota) No problems this weekend, a little ice fog every morning, highs reaching the mid 30s across much of Minnesota - perfect weather for a sustained romp in the snow! The following weekend Old Man Winter may reemerge from hibernation, staging a vigorous comeback, a subtle (yet blunt) reminder that this is (historically) the dead of winter. Temperatures literally bottom out between now and about January 25. The REALLY good news: no brittle, hair-freezing, eye-watering Arctic outbreaks are in insight through the end of January. Our midwinter vacation has legs....

Place your bets. Here is the CPC (Climate Prediction Center, division of NOAA) forecast of temperature anomalies through the end of March. Based (mostly) on a lingering El Nino in the Pacific temperatures are predicted to trend well above average, with a predominate flow from the Pacific, rather than the Yukon. We've been waiting for this El Nino signal to emerge all winter - maybe we'll catch a (small) break the latter half of winter.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: A brighter day. Ice fog possible early, mix of clouds and sun. Winds: W 5-10. High: 32

Tonight: Patchy clouds. Low; 21

Saturday: Partly sunny, nearly 15 degrees above average. High: 33

Sunday: Plenty of sun, still storm-free. High: 32

Monday: Cooler, blue sky overhead. High: 28

Tuesday: Sunshine much of the day, no major worries. High: 27

Wednesday: Cloudy, chance of a little freezing drizzle/icing. High: 26

Thursday: Freezing drizzle possible, patchy clouds and fog. High: 28

Dripping Icicles

2010-01-13T23:48:00.000-06:00

Welcome January Thaw. We've been expecting you, waiting, wondering - hoping that you would arrive on gentle, moderate Pacific breezes. The past 2 1/2 weeks have been pretty tough up here on the tundra - a lot of soul-searching, second-guessing, frantic calls to travel agents. Wait, are there any travel agents left? Even evacuating to Florida didn't help remove goosebumps and goose-bulges - it was nearly as cold there as it was up here in Minne-snowda. Yikes! The last 18 days have been a test, mental and physical. Not many records, just an extended spell below freezing (and zero, for that matter). Character-building indeed. We're due for a change in the pattern, and it's here: highs near freezing through Sunday, sloppy every afternoon on the highways, icy every morning with a touch of fog. A weak disturbance will whip up a few flurries this morning, a better chance of spying the sun this afternoon. BTW, have you noticed: the amount of daylight is on the increase. Yes, I can now drive home in lovely twilight. A few hardy birds are even chirping when I leave the house every morning. Can spring be far behind?

A surplus of snow. The latest NASA MODIS satellite image shows snow on the ground across roughly the northern half of America. You can zoom into this graphic and see individual ice-covered lakes in Minnesota. Try it out for yourself right here.

Next question please.

Storm-free weather lingers through next Tuesday (a slight cooling trend possible early next week, highs in the mid 20s, still a few degrees above average). Computer models are still hinting at a potential icing event for the middle of next week, a period of drizzle, freezing drizzle, maybe some freezing rain mixed with sleet and wet snow. Yes, next Wednesday and Thursday may be a slushy/icy mess. After drying out (temporarily) next Friday and Saturday a second, stronger southern storm shows signs of surging northward around Jan. 24-25, a Sunday-Monday, and the models are hinting at two things: a). probably cold enough for mostly-snow, and b). a few inches of snow may result, although it's still WAY early to try and pin down amounts and timing. Just know that the latter half of the weekend of Jan. 23-24 may look and feel like winter - again. I still don't see anything arctic or nanook looking out through the end of January. We'll probably pay for this January thaw in February. Count on it, although with any luck it won't be quite as harsh as it was in late December/early January. Fingers (and eyes) crossed.

A potentially stormy/snowy late January weekend. Models are hinting at a southern storm tracking northward across the Plains, spreading (mostly) snow into Minnesota by Sunday, Jan. 24, lingering into Monday, Jan. 25. A "plowable" snowfall is possible from this system, the next real opportunity for accumulating snow.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Clouds, a few flurries possible - partial clearing by afternoon. Winds: NW 10-20. High: near 30

Tonight: Partly cloudy and chilly. Low: 17

Friday: More sun, less wind, feeling better. High: 32

Saturday: Plenty of sun, feels like late February! High: 35

Sunday: Mix of clouds and sun, still well above average. High: 33

Monday: Blue sky, still dry and storm-free. High: 28

Tuesday: Sun giving way to increasing clouds. High: 27

Wednesday: Cloudy, chance of a little freezing drizzle/ice. High: 28

Thursday: Wintry mix possible, some ice lingers. High: 29

Midwinter Intermission

2010-01-12T23:20:00.001-06:00

Think of this as intermission, half-time (in honor of our remarkable Vikings). Old Man Winter isn't nearly through with us, he's just resting up for the Second Act. Make the most of our little mini-siesta from wind chill, snow and ice - because there is little doubt in my muddled mind that winter will come roaring back into Minnesota by late January and early February. With a little luck maybe it won't be quite as bad as late December and the first 11 days of January. We are roughly 2 weeks away from the date when the average temperature begins to CLIMB again, for the first time in 6 months. By late January the higher sun angle finally balances out the lingering snow and long winter nights, budging the thermometer higher. But the truth of the matter: we won't really begin to warm up (significantly) until we lose the snow, which can happen anytime from late March through early May, depending on the year. There's something to look forward to.

A Category 3 winter storm. Yes, the NWS is now rating winter storms. The Mid Atlantic storm that struck from December 18-21 was rated a "3" on a scale from 1 to 5. Makes me wonder what a Category 5 storm would look like. For a detailed explanation click here.

* Forecast for Sunday's Vikes-Cowboys game at the Dome: Partly sunny, high of 34. Vikes by 7.

Yesterday was chillier than predicted, a fickle inversion (warmer aloft than at ground-level) and a hefty 10" snow pack conspiring to keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than expected....20 in St. Cloud, 22 in the Twin Cities, just a notch above average, for a change. Out of the breeze it didn't feel half-bad out there yesterday, and today will be another big step in the right direction. I think we'll see enough of a southerly breeze (and sun peeking through) to partially break through that nagging inversion, and filter some of that milder, Pacific-originating air down to ground-level. That could be good for 30-34 degrees by mid afternoon. Yesterday the mercury held in the teens across most of southern and southwestern Minnesota, where there's 15-30" of snow on the ground. The thicker the snowcover, the cooler the temperatures. The air is literally refrigerated from below. In the coming days, in spite of a bulging ridge of high pressure and plenty of moderate Pacific air floating overhead, much of the sun's (feeble) energy will go into melting snow vs. warming up the air. That will limit just how high the mercury can climb, but it will still feel VERY NICE out there, with temperatures 10-15 degrees above average. The PM hours will be sloppy, mushy and wet on area highways - hard to see through muck-caked windshields at times. And I'm still a little freaked out about partial snow melt each afternoon, only to re-freeze each night as the temperature tumbles back into the upper teens to around 20. Be careful first thing in the morning - there may be some glaze ice on the driveway or sidewalk. Snowmelt may also lead to patchy (ice) fog at times, but that's about the only pint-size weather headache lurking out there through the middle of next week.

GFS Model for Monday, January 25. There is a potential for a significant storm for the Upper Midwest in about 10 days, give or take. Enough warm air may wrap around the storm (forecast to be centered over Iowa) for a changeover to ice and snow, especially across far eastern and southern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin.

After than the maps begin to look a bit more intriguing. The weather pattern across North America is undergoing a major transformation - rapidly evolving from the high-amplitude pattern that hurled Siberian air into the lower 48 states, to more of a zonal (El Nino impacted?) flow, characterized by storms taking a more southerly track across the USA, and milder, Pacific air engulfing the northern tier states, including Minnesota. The models are hinting at a little drizzle or freezing drizzle (yes, the lowest mile of the atmosphere may be just mild enough for a little liquid precipitation by the middle of next week, possibly freezing on contact with cold surfaces). Something to look forward to. Nothing worse than ice - ugh. By the weekend of January 23-24 a more substantial storm is forecast to lift northward across the Plains, treating Minnesota to a conglomeration of snow/ice/rain, with the greatest potential for a "plowable" snow over the northwestern half of Minnesota. It's still way too early to be speculating about precise timing or amounts - I want to see a lot more computer runs, see if the models are at all consistent in how they treat this series of southern storms. I think it's realistic to think that dry weather will prevail through at least Tuesday of next week, with the weather becoming increasingly stormy, and highways becoming increasingly messy/slushy/icy by the end of next week.

ECMWF (European) Model Output valid next Friday, Jan. 22. Check out the southerly fetch stretching from Texas northward to Minnesota, implying an ample supply of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, which may translate into significant snow/ice/rain for much of the Upper Midwest. Note how the main core of the jet stream has shifted south, with major storms slamming into California, then taking a more southerly track across the USA - all possible symptoms of El Nino.

A few deep weather thoughts:

* This upcoming weekend may be one of the best weekends of the winter to get out and PLAY in the snow. Conditions should be excellent for snowmobiling, cross-country skiing and downhill, with very comfortable temperatures (highs within a few degrees of freezing statewide).

* A little rain/ice may cause snow conditions to deteriorate by the weekend of Jan. 23-24.

* The period of Sunday through Monday, Jan 24-25 may feature significant snow across much of Minnesota. We'll keep fine-tuning the forecast as the (potential) storm draws closer. For now it's a distinct possibility, nothing more.

* 40 degrees is not out of the question by the weekend of Jan. 23-24.

* No rerun of brutal, arctic air is showing up through January 29. After that all bets are off.

Not a great week to be visiting the UK. Check out the latest (visible) satellite image of England, showing snow stretching from Scotland and Wales southward to the London area. The UK and most of Europe is experiencing the coldest, snowiest winter in decades, snow observed as far south as the Mediterranean.

An unpleasant omen? The "Burj" just opened up, officially, in Dubai, in the United Emirates. Thunderstorms in the Middle East are somewhat rare, so officials must have been scratching their heads when lightning (repeatedly) struck what is now the tallest building in the world. On second thought, maybe they saw this coming. For more (amazing) pictures of this freak lightning storm in the deserts of the UAE click here.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Partly sunny, milder. Winds: South 5-10. High: near 30

Tonight: Mostly clear, patchy (ice) fog possible. Low: 19

Thurday: Intervals of sun, feels like a real January Thaw. High: 33

Friday: Plenty of sun, 10-15 degrees above average. High: 32

Saturday: Mix of clouds and sun, still quiet. High: 34

Sunday: Storm-free, feels more like late Feburary. High: 33

Monday: Still mild for mid January, some sun. High: 35

Tuesday: Peeks of sun, still quiet. High: 36

Wednesday: Clouds increase - chance of a little drizzle or freezing drizzle. High: 34

Blue Juice Alert

2010-01-11T22:49:00.001-06:00

Weather Headlines

* Mild, Pacific air streaming across the Rockies, promising the first thaw since Christmas Day, 2009.
* Mid 30s likely the latter half of this week, 30s should hang on into much of next week, 40 not out of the question by the weekend of January 23-24.
* Pattern not ripe for major storms looking out 10 days.
* Slow snow melt will trigger sloppy roads and patchy fog.
* Potential for a cold rain by Sunday, January 24, turning to snow by January 25 - potential for a few inches before much colder air returns after January 27.
* Much colder end to January/start to February, but probably not as Nanook as last week.
* 36 in Miami Monday morning, 42 at Key West, second coldest temperature ever recorded.
* December: 16th coldest for the USA since modern-day records were first started.

Breaking Weather News. Will this lead the newscasts? Maybe not, but at least one of the top 3 local stories: the first thaw in 17 days. Freezing has never been more appreciated.

The Vikes are on a serious roll, the economy seems to be ticking upward (I pray), and my long-lost neighbors are emerging from hibernation, rubbing their eyes - shielding their eyes from a bright midwinter sun. The January Thaw, most frequently observed east of the Mississippi River, is a little more than 24 hours away - you'll be amazed how good 32 lousy degrees can feel in mid January. As of yesterday there was a cool 10" of snow on the ground from St. Cloud into the Twin Cities, but the DNR is reporting over 30" of snow across parts of southwestern Minnesota (4-6" of water locked up in that snow pack, which has me increasingly nervous about the specter of river flooding 2-3 months from now, especially along the Minnesota and Red River). Time will tell. The weather forecast is rarely black or white - it's usually some nebulous, hard-to-predict shade of gray. But Old Man Winter will loosen his death-grip on Minnesota and the Upper Midwest for the next 7-10 days. The El Nino signal (which has been predicted for more than 6 months) is FINALLY showing up on the maps, a tendency for milder Pacific air to penetrate well inland, thawing out the northern tier states, while big, sloppy, potentially violent Pacific storms thrash the west coast, and then take a more southerly track, soaking Los Angeles, Dallas and Atlanta.

From Sea to Shining Sea. Check out the red, very white, and blue USA - a little snow on the ground as far south as Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia. Nice that so much of the country could feel our pain, huh?

Predicting daytime highs with 10" of snow on the ground is a bit problematic. You see, the sun's energy will go into melting snow, rather than warming up the air. Throw in a strong inversion (warmer a few thousand feet above the ground than right at ground level) and you understand why the mercury may not climb as high as some of the models are predicting. The GFS is hinting at 40 degrees by the weekend of January 23-24, which seems like a stretch with the big pile of white outside my window. Not impossible, but unlikely. Mid 30s seem more likely, and the first chance of being serenaded by dripping icicles will probably come tomorrow, as winds pick up from the south under a partly sunny sky. Stock up on blue juice (for your windshield) because highways will be a sloppy, runny mess. During the daylight hours many icy patches will become at least partially wet, only to re-freeze each night. At least you'll have a window of opportunity to hack most of the thick ice off your driveway or sidewalk. Just beware each morning, after wet, slushy surfaces have had a chance to freeze over again - could be quite hazardous out there.

Growing Flood Potential? There is a good 4-6" of liquid water tied up in the snowpack over far southwestern Minnesota, according to NOAA. Whether our rivers flood or not in 2-3 months will depend on a multitude of factors, including how rapidly it warms up, and whether any vigorous warm fronts are accompanied by heavy rain, which would accelerate snow melt and any subsequent flooding.

Current Snow Cover. Wright and western Hennepin county seem to have the most snow on the ground, more than 12" or so. But far southwestern Minnesota is boasting as much as 24-32" of snow, with a cool 18-24" along Lake Superior's North Shore. The upcoming weekend will be ideal for outdoor sports: highs mostly in the 30s - still plenty of snow to play in statewide.

The forecast for Sunday's big Vikes-Cowboys game? Partly sunny with a high of 36, nearly 15 degrees ABOVE AVERAGE! The announcers will still make cracks about Minnesota's crazy weather - they just can't help themselves. Next week should remain mild, a "zonal" flow from the Pacific keeping highs in the 30s, any major storms detouring well south of Minnesota. By the end of next week the maps look a bit more interesting. There's a potential for a rain event the weekend of January 23-24, possibly a sloppy mix, changing over to wet snow - potentially heavy - right around Monday, January 25, give or take a day. That's way out on the horizon, and my comfort level in that prediction is even lower than usual. It seems inevitable that a fresh swipe of numbing air will follow any storm, probably sweeping into Minnesota around the 27th - we end out the month of January much colder than average, although right now I don't see it getting quite as cold as it's been much of the last 2 weeks. We'll see. There is absolutely NO WAY we'll avoid a few more arctic smacks. That's about as likely as taxes, mosquitoes and Menards commercials. But at least we have the better part of 10 days to catch our collective breath, regroup, recover, rejuvenate - this would be a perfect weekend to get out and PLAY in the snow with highs in the 30s. It will feel very comfortable out there. By the following weekend (Jan. 23-24) it may be a little more slushy and mushy, especially if a southern storm does spread a rare January rain into Minnesota. If you have an option get out this upcoming weekend, possibly the best weekend of winter to enjoy the (significant) snow cover, without having to dress if 10 layers and check the kids for signs of frostbite. Enjoy the brief, fleeting holiday from wind-chill-itis. I know I will!

It Could be Worse - Much Worse. Check out this story from northeastern Germany, where 160 drivers were stranded in their vehicles - they had to be rescued from 78" drifts. Much of Europe is grappling with the coldest, snowiest winter in decades. The entire northern hemisphere is getting a mean dose of Old Man Winter. The complete story in the BBC is here.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Partly sunny, breezy, noticeably milder. Winds: S/SW 10-15. High: 29

Tonight: Partly cloudy, not as chilly. Low: 17

Wednesday: Intervals of sun - thaw likely. High: 33

Thursday: Mix of clouds and sun, sloppy and slushy on area highways. High: 33

Friday: Still quiet and storm-free. Some sun. High: 32

Saturday: Patchy fog early, then some PM sun. High: 33

Sunday: Not bad for mid January. Clouds increase. High: 35

Monday: Patchy clouds, still 10-14 degrees milder than "average". High: 33

Tremors to Follow

2010-01-10T22:16:00.001-06:00

Hello and happy Monday everyone. Are you thawing out yet? I am happy to report that this 'milder' weather won't stop here, we're likely to gain a few more degrees in the temperature department through the next couple/few days right through midweek. Those, white salty roads will turn back to the dark gray color we're used to as the salt solutions that the snow plows have been spreading around town begin to hit critical temperature and work against the wintry elements. Sure, it'll be dry (no snow in the forecast), but if you were thinking about getting a car wash this week, you might want to wait until we see what the sloppy road situation will turn out to be after some snow and ice melt. I've already picked up some extra windshield washer fluid 'blue juice' just in case puddles begin to form in low spots around town. Below is the NOAA high temperature forecast for Wednesday:

Fly in the Ointment?

It'll be wonderful to have a reprieve from the Arctic air, but my concern will be the amount of sunshine by late week if the temperatures get warmer than expected. Take a look at the snow depth map below across Minnesota. Note how most locations have a decent amount of snow cover, which is sufficient for cooling near the surface. If we begin to melt snow, there will be an increase of water vapor near the surface, which will have an easier time condensing with the cold snow pack also at the surface.

Quake Off Northern California Coastline
This picture is from Eureka California where a 6.5 magnitude earthquake shook up things on Saturday afternoon. There were a number of damage reports including power outages and gas leaks, but there were no major injuries reported, which is great news!

This was the biggest quake to rock that region since April 4th, 1992 and June 15th, 2005 when a 7.2 magnitude quake hit. The epicenter was nearly 30 miles southwest of Eureka, CA - offshore - which was strong enough to be felt inland. Interestingly, there is a 78% chance of strong aftershocks in the 7 days following the main quake. Forecasts call for 20 to 70 smaller shocks, which most of won't be felt. Another interesting note is that this Gorda Plate is subducting or slipping underneath the North American Plate by nearly 2.5 to 3 centimeters per year! Doesn't seem like a lot, but any little slip can cause some major problems.

Learn more about the quake here:

Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Patchy clouds, a few passing flurries. High: 20

Tonight: Mostly clear, quiet and not as cold. Low: 3

Tuesday: Feeling better, mostly sunny. High: 28

Wednesday: A few passing cloud, quite mild for January standards. High: 31

Thursday: More clouds and a slight chance of flurries late, well above average temps. High: 32

Friday: Cooler and clearing. High: 24

Saturday: More sun, warming up slightly. High: 26

Sunday: Partly cloudy, thawing out again. High: near 31

January Thaw Still on Track

2010-01-09T22:29:00.002-06:00

Saturday's sunshine felt pretty good, didn't it? I am amazed at how warm 10 degrees feels after going through such a long stretch of below zero weather... and if you thought if felt warm yesterday, wait until mid-week when temperatures climb into the low 30's. It'll be a regular heat wave - Minnesota style. Take look at the long range GFS forecast numbers this week. I've highlighted the high temperatures through the week. Note the high temperature on Wednesday:

A southerly wind will be blowing some impressive warmth into the lower and middle layers of the atmosphere. Take a look at the BUFKIT temperature profile forecast for Wednesday in the western part of the state (Redwood Falls). The LONG yellow rectangle indicates the warmest temperature I could find a few thousand feet above the surface. I find it fascinating that it will be nearly 50 degrees at 3000 feet by Wednesday!

Depending on how strong the southerly wind gets on Tuesday/Wednesday, we may see even warmer temperatures than what the long range GFS forecast is saying. A stronger wind will allow the atmosphere to mix up a little more, so some of that warmer stuff aloft, might just be able to sneak down to the surface. Although, when temperatures get near the freezing mark (32 degrees) along with a deep snow pack, we have to start thinking about dense fog developing. If that's the case, our sunny days will be kept to a minimum this week. We'll keep an eye on the situation, in the meantime, the precipitation chances are quite low through the next few days, so the driving nightmares from late last week will be only bad memories.

Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Sun fades behind increasing clouds, flurries late. High: 21

Tonight: A little light snow possible, nothing major. Low: 14

Monday: Patchy clouds, a few passing flurries. High: 23

Tuesday: Feeling better, intervals of sun. High: near 31

Wednesday: Mix of clouds and sun, milder. High: 33

Thursday: More clouds, well above average. High: 32

Friday: Cooler, few flake in the air. High: 26

Saturday: More sun, warming up slightly. High: 29

Sunday: Partly sunny, thawing out again. High: 32

A light at the end of the tunnel

2010-01-08T23:24:00.001-06:00

Yes, the cold is getting old, I'm told, but I'm going to be bold and uphold a January tradition: a desperately needed thaw! Are you sold? Sorry - the numbing, penetrating, debilitating, hair-freezing cold is going straight to my brain. That's it, I have cranial frostbite. Not fatal, but my reflexes, my reaction time, my ability to name that tune (and pretend I'm smarter than a 5th grader) have all been seriously impacted by 2 straight weeks of subzero nighttime lows. The cold front made me do it, your honor! I think our great-great-great grandparents had the right idea. After the harvest they hunkered down, virtually hibernating through the coldest months of winter - slept much of the time, laid low, expending a minimal amount of energy, consuming minimal calories, waiting for the first glorious trickles of spring. How on earth they got through all this without central heat, Thinsulate and Netflix is beyond my comprehension. But they made it work. So when I'm tempted to whine about the windchill I step back and remember - what it must have been like inside countless little houses on the prairie, the only source of audio coming from the moan of the wind, the horses in the barn, the kids running around the fireplace. On one level it must have been much simpler, far fewer distractions, easier to focus on the things that really matter.

End of lame epiphany.

Breaking weather news! The rumors are true. You will regain some feeling in your extremities next week with a run of 20s, even some low to mid 30s. The 8-12" of snow of snow on the ground will act like a brake, limiting just how high the mercury can climb (the sun's energy going into melting snow vs. warming up the air). Even so, 32 will feel like sweet 'mana from heaven. To explore the sweet delights of the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center for yourself click here.

Keeping a global perspective. Earthweek is a great source for weather/climate/geology events unfolding across the entire planet. For the very latest update click here.

Cue the Hallelujah Chorus. That's the only word that came to mind when I got a look at the long-range temperature trend. The models are all in fairly good agreement that we'll see the first thaw since December 25, 2009. Prepare for rivers of slush and runny rivulets of gritty goo. That's good news, right? You can track these wondrous trends for yourself by clicking on over to here.

The end is near. THE END IS NEAR! The end of the nasty, burn-your-nosehairs-off Yukon SPANKING we just enjoyed. Yes, it was unpleasant, one of the coldest outbreaks in a decade. But we didn't come close to setting any records, for coldest temperature, most hours in a row below freezing or most hours below zero. Not even close. Truth be told we've become pretty spoiled in recent years - the majority of the winters since 1995 have been significantly milder than average, especially at night. So when an old fashioned Siberian Slap does come along it feels especially harsh (and unfair). Personally I think it's atmospheric payback for an unusually mild, quiet, storm-free November. Our weather patterns do seem increasingly bizarre - we just veer from one extreme to the next. Drought to flood, unusually warm to unnecessarily cold. What happened to average? Minnesota weather has always been variable, we've always had our ups and downs - no question - but it seems like the AMPLITUDE of those extremes have increased over time. We see a 1 in 500 year flood on the Red River every 5 years. Damaging droughts crop up every 3-5 years, instead of 20. More hail, more flash flooding, more headlines. Is the weather really becoming more extreme, or are more (weather-savvy) people out looking for (and reporting) crazy weather? An intriguing question. I'll save that for another (warmer) day.

Yes, chances are Friday was "cold enough for 'ya."

:            STATION           MAX     MIN       SNOW  SNOW
:             NAME             TEMP    TEMP      FALL  DEPTH
AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN ARPT     :   1  /   -9  /     M /    M
STC : ST CLOUD MN ARPT       :   6  /   -5  /    0.0 /   10
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN ARPT    :   8  /   -1  /    0.0 /   11
RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN ARPT  :  -5  /  -11  /     M /    M
DLH : DULUTH AIRPORT         :  10  /   -7  /    0.0 /   20
INL : INTERNATIONAL FALLS    :  -2  /  -21  /    0.0 /   17
HIB : HIBBING ARPT           :  10  /   -7  /     M /    M
GNA : GRAND MARAIS MN        :  16  /    2  /     M /    M
RST : ROCHESTER MN ARPT      :   4  /   -2  /    0.3 /   19

We're waking up to one of the 3-4 coldest mornings of the entire winter, -20s common, I'm sure we'll see some -30s across far southwestern Minnesota, where there's fresh snow on the ground, and winds were light overnight (near the center of an arctic high). The sun will be out most of today, highs struggling into single digits. Winds blow from the west to southwest Sunday, luring the mercury all the way up to nearly 20. Woo hoo! But wait, it gets better. One more clipper squeezes out a couple inches of powder on the Minnesota Arrowhead late Sunday, followed by another shot of cold air (although not as nippy as what we just muddled through). The real warmth streams across the Rockies by the middle of next week, coaxing the mercury up to freezing (FREEZING!) by Wednesday and Thursday. Yes, you will soon be serenaded by the glorious sounds of dripping drain-spouts. Prepare to stock up on "blue juice" for your windshield - next week is going to be a sloppy, slurpy, slushy mess - but the good news: the worst of the ice will slowly start to melt away by the end of next week. Road conditions (and the ability to navigate your steps or sidewalk) should improve dramatically by the latter half of next week. MnDOT's salt/sand mixture works best when the mercury is close to 32, so we'll see some real improvement, driving, walking, less slipping and sliding within 5-7 days. That's something to look forward to, right?

Hope for Minnesotans who don't like the cold. NOAA is holding firm, predicting significantly warmer than average weather for the rest of January, February and March, based (largely) on the moderate El Nino warming of Pacific Ocean water now underway. Time will tell.

I am a naive optimist (or why else would I even attempt to predict Minnesota's manic weather?) but I genuinely believe that the coldest stretch of winter is almost behind us, the longest stretch of consecutive subzero lows and numbing daytime highs. The pattern isn't ripe for significant snow anytime soon in Minnesota, in fact the El Nino signal may FINALLY be showing up on the weather maps. By next week major storms will be approaching the west coast, another significant snow/ice/rain storm spreading heavy precipitation up the east coast the weekend of January 16-17. Long-range models keep Minnesota significantly warmer than average for the next 2 weeks, colder/wetter weather for the far south. That's classic El Nino weather - let's see how long it hangs on.

Major east coast snow/ice storm? This is the GFS weather model prediction for next Saturday, January 16 at 6 pm, showing a massive shield of snow/ice/rain spreading from the Gulf coast into the Mid Atlantic states. Once again Washington D.C., Baltimore and Philadelphia may get pasted by significant snow - although it's way too early to get specific. Keep this in mind if your travels take you to the east coast next weekend. To see a 10-Day animated forecast for the USA click here.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Bright sun. Can't feel my toes (or nose). Winds: South 5-10. High: 9

Tonight: Mostly clear, not quite as chilly (where else on the planet would a prediction of 0 be "not as chilly. Good grief). Low: near 0

Sunday: Sun fades behind increasing clouds, flurries late. High: 21

Monday: Patchy clouds, a few passing flurries. High: 23

Tuesday: Feeling better, intervals of sun. High: near 31

Wednesday: Mix of clouds and sun, milder. High: 33

Thursday: More clouds, well above average. High: 32

Friday: Cooler, few flake in the air. High: 26

Saturday: More sun, warming up slightly. High: 29

Sunday: Partly sunny, thawing out again. High: 32

Fun with Negative Numbers

2010-01-07T21:11:00.001-06:00

* 2-3" fresh snow across much of the metro, closer to 1" far western/northern suburbs.

* Dangerous wind chills Friday morning, feels like -20 to -30 F at times.

* Travel conditions slowly improve over southwestern MN as winds ease and blowing/drifting diminishes.

* Tonight: one of the 3 coldest nights of winter. -30 air temperature over southwestern MN.

* Warming trend next week, possible thaw by Wednesday, 32+ possible.

* Pattern not ripe for big storms/accumulating snow for the next 7-10 days.

Welcome to another character-building day on the tundra. Bug-free, low humidity, no smog to speak of - who could ask for anything more? Just think, all the great civilizations from Greece to Rome to Greater Britannia to the good 'ol USA have been at northerly latitudes susceptible to the biting winds of winter. Translation: either be ingenious and creative enough to survive/endure or perish at the hands of Old Man Winter. Big weather extremes FORCE us to be more resilient, inventive and creative! This is by no means a slam to nations in the Tropics, blessed with temperature, moderate weather year-round. But it's no secret that big, sweeping changes in weather and (longer-term climate) can, in fact, be mentally invigorating, just ask Plato, Socrates, Shakespeare and Hemmingway, to name a handful.

Snowfall amounts as of 7 am Thursday morning. As expected the heaviest snowfall amounts from the most recent clipper were across far western and southwestern Minnesota. A couple more inches of snow fell after 7 am. For a complete tally of snowfall amounts scroll down to the bottom of the post.

Are you buying any of this? Hey, it was worth a shot. Minnesotans take precious little for granted, like Californians and Floridians. We power through the blizzards, clippers and non-stop brain-freezes, in fact many of us slap on a few extra layers and go out and play on the tundra, thumbing our collective noses at these occasional love-letters from Siberia. I've said it before - we EARN our summers at this latitude. We are a race of weather-warriors, able to take 35 below wind chills on the chin, shake it off, and come back for more. Mercifully our coldest days are often bright and sunny with a dazzling-blue sky. Just having that sun out can help, psychologically. Call me crazy (heard it many times, especially at home) but I'd rather take a few weeks of subzero lows than 5 straight months of gray and drizzle. Not seeing the sun for week after week would (in my humble opinion) be far worse than grappling with face mask and gloves. That said, this is getting old - we haven't seen freezing since Christmas Day. That's two straight weeks below 32, not even close to a record, by the way, but yes, the natives are getting restless. Even the old-timers, the cold weather veterans, are beginning to grumble. El Nino? How 'bout El Freezo!

Serious Cold. Here is the WRF model prediction for 6 am temperatures Saturday morning: subzero across all of Minnesota, as cold as -20 from St. Cloud to the suburbs of the Twin Cities, maybe -30 in a few colder pockets near Windom and Granite Falls.

The Alberta Clipper that dumped 10" snow on Ivanhoe, 6" on Welcome, 4.5" Mankato and a cool, powdery, accident-inducing 1-3" on the Twin Cities is now sailing across the Great Lakes. Counterclockwise winds pinwheeling around this fast-moving low are inhaling a fresh burst of numbing air into the state. We're waking up to wind chill advisories (it feels like -25 to -35 out there this morning). Make sure the kids have a few extra layers, no exposed skin showing. I'd think twice about an outdoor recess today. Anytime the wind chill goes below -30 F I counsel parents (and school administrators) to use extra caution, since the risk of frostbite is several times higher than it is with a temperature in the teens or single digits. Exposed skin can become frostbitten in less than 15 minutes.

Upward & Onward. The models are in agreement - a nice warming trend is shaping up for next week, possibly a genuine January Thaw by the middle of next week! Click the graphic to see it full-screen.

Two more subzero nights are likely (we may wake up to -20 Saturday morning, but at least the worst of the wind will have eased up). Jet stream steering winds will undergo a major transformation next week, more of a westerly component blowing milder, Pacific air across the Rockies into Minnesota. It still looks like a string of 20s and some low 30s next week, and it will feel AMAZING out there. Watch, a few over-zealous people in our midst (most under the age of 25) will venture outdoors in sweats, celebrating the mythic January Thaw, which hasn't been this welcome in nearly a decade. You have to go back about 10 years to find a winter with this much snow, ice and cold. We're due for a shift in the pattern, and it's about 48 hours away. Next week will restore your faith in a (reasonable) Minnesota winter. Temperatures will run close to "average" through the third week of January, and even though more subzero outbreaks are likely through the end of February, I daresay the WORST OF WINTER WILL BE BEHIND US BY SUNDAY. I may have to eat those words, but looking at the number of hours below zero I stand by my (shaky) prediction.

Congratulations - you're on the verge of surviving the worst of what Old Man Winter could dole out this winter. It wasn't terribly pleasant. But just think how good 50 degrees will feel in a few months! The days are getting longer (have you noticed yet?) and in about 2-3 weeks the average temperature will turn upward again, for the first time in 6 months. Thank God for (big) favors!

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Intervals of bitter sun, a potentially dangerous wind. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 2 (windchills near -25 F this morning).

Tonight: Clear and numbing. Low: -13 (-20s far outlying suburbs)

Saturday: Bright sun, a bit more tolerable (less wind). High: 10

Sunday: Plenty of sun, back to "average". Flurries possible late Sunday and Sunday night. High: near 20

Monday: Mix of clouds and sun. High: 24

Tuesday: Partly sunny - milder. High: 29

Wednesday: Risk of a January Thaw. Patchy clouds, well above average (for a change). High: 33 (!) First day above freezing since December 25.

Thursday: Some sun, still quiet. High: near 30

Friday: Clouds increase, flurries, even a period of light snow north. High: 29

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
622 PM CST THU JAN 07 2010...COR

...SNOW TOTALS FROM THE JANUARY 06-07 SNOWSTORM...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH
LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME
------  -----------------------  --  --------------   -------
 6.00   WELCOME                  MN  MARTIN           0658 AM
 6.00   DAWSON                   MN  LAC QUI PARLE    1230 AM
                HWY 212 WESTBOUND LANE SNOW COVERED DUE TO
                DRIFTING NEAR DAWSON.
 5.00   FAIRMONT                 MN  MARTIN           0815 AM
 5.00   4 N BOYD                 MN  LAC QUI PARLE    0815 AM
 5.00   GRANITE FALLS            MN  CHIPPEWA         1235 AM
                MANY ROADS AROUND COUNTY DOWN TO SINGLE LANE
                DUE TO DRIFTING SNOW.
 4.50   FARIBAULT                MN  RICE             0612 PM
 4.50   MANKATO                  MN  BLUE EARTH       1110 AM
 4.00   ST JAMES                 MN  WATONWAN         0102 PM
 4.00   BLUE EARTH               MN  FARIBAULT        0815 AM
 4.00   MORGAN                   MN  REDWOOD          0700 AM
 4.00   MORRIS                   MN  STEVENS          0100 AM
                LOTS OF DRIFTING SNOW AFFECTING AREA ROADS.
 3.50   NORTHFIELD               MN  RICE             0518 PM
 3.40   EAU CLAIRE               WI  EAU CLAIRE       0612 PM
                MEASURED AT WQOW TV.
 3.10   ST PAUL                  MN  RAMSEY           0139 PM
                OCCURRED IN NORTH ST PAUL.
 2.50   WOODBURY                 MN  WASHINGTON       1256 PM
 2.50   ELLENDALE                MN  STEELE           0700 AM
 2.20   MINNEAPOLIS              MN  HENNEPIN         0612 PM
                MEASURED AT THE MINNEAPOLIS INTERNATIONAL
                AIRPORT.
 2.00   BLOOMINGTON              MN  HENNEPIN         0308 PM
 1.30   2 W PRIOR LAKE           MN  SCOTT            0451 PM
 1.30   CHANHASSEN               MN  CARVER           0612 PM
                MEASURED AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
                OFFICE.

Paul Douglas Updated Forecast

Locked in a dry, quiet pattern

More (temporary) fun with negative numbers

Tumbling Temperatures

Pothole season comes early...

Snow: the good, bad & ugly

Loading the Dice?

The United (quirky) States of America

Midwinter Reality Check

Presidents' Day Gold Medal Forecast

Retrograding Low Brings Light Snow

Thinking Warm Thoughts

Clipper from Olympians

Snowiest Season on Record Out East

Back to Normal (Snowfall)

Twin Cities Snow Bowl XLIV Winding Down

STORM UPDATE - Monday Afternoon Update

**UPDATE** Winter Storm Warning Continues

...SNOW CONTINUES MOST AREAS....

Slow and Steady to Shovelable Levels

Winter Storm Warning

Olympic-Sized Snow in DC

Winter Storm Watch

Say It Ain't Snow

Winter Lite

A couple "plowable" events

Happy to be "average"

Gradual temperature inflation

1-2" of Minnesota Powder

1-2" of Minnesota Powder

Forecast: February Slush

Keeping a little perspective

A badly-needed February thaw

A state of (reluctant) weather warriors

The Dark Days

Vikes Hangover (and a candy-coating of snow)

Vikes Warning: New Orleans Threatened

Blame El Nino

Storm Update - Weekend Slop-Storm

Tracking a major slop-storm

Icy Update, Midday Thursday

Weekend Outlook: 1-12"

A taste of March in January

January fluke: ice & rain

Prediction: Vikings euphoria (and a messy mix)

January Slush, Mush & Rain?

Mourning Haiti's Loss

Winter on hold

Dripping Icicles

Midwinter Intermission

Blue Juice Alert

Tremors to Follow

January Thaw Still on Track

A light at the end of the tunnel

Fun with Negative Numbers

UPDATE Winter Storm Warning Continues