Fun with Negative Numbers

* 2-3" fresh snow across much of the metro, closer to 1" far western/northern suburbs.

* Dangerous wind chills Friday morning, feels like -20 to -30 F at times.

* Travel conditions slowly improve over southwestern MN as winds ease and blowing/drifting diminishes.

* Tonight: one of the 3 coldest nights of winter. -30 air temperature over southwestern MN.

* Warming trend next week, possible thaw by Wednesday, 32+ possible.

* Pattern not ripe for big storms/accumulating snow for the next 7-10 days.

Welcome to another character-building day on the tundra. Bug-free, low humidity, no smog to speak of - who could ask for anything more? Just think, all the great civilizations from Greece to Rome to Greater Britannia to the good 'ol USA have been at northerly latitudes susceptible to the biting winds of winter. Translation: either be ingenious and creative enough to survive/endure or perish at the hands of Old Man Winter. Big weather extremes FORCE us to be more resilient, inventive and creative! This is by no means a slam to nations in the Tropics, blessed with temperature, moderate weather year-round. But it's no secret that big, sweeping changes in weather and (longer-term climate) can, in fact, be mentally invigorating, just ask Plato, Socrates, Shakespeare and Hemmingway, to name a handful.

Snowfall amounts as of 7 am Thursday morning. As expected the heaviest snowfall amounts from the most recent clipper were across far western and southwestern Minnesota. A couple more inches of snow fell after 7 am. For a complete tally of snowfall amounts scroll down to the bottom of the post.

Are you buying any of this? Hey, it was worth a shot. Minnesotans take precious little for granted, like Californians and Floridians. We power through the blizzards, clippers and non-stop brain-freezes, in fact many of us slap on a few extra layers and go out and play on the tundra, thumbing our collective noses at these occasional love-letters from Siberia. I've said it before - we EARN our summers at this latitude. We are a race of weather-warriors, able to take 35 below wind chills on the chin, shake it off, and come back for more. Mercifully our coldest days are often bright and sunny with a dazzling-blue sky. Just having that sun out can help, psychologically. Call me crazy (heard it many times, especially at home) but I'd rather take a few weeks of subzero lows than 5 straight months of gray and drizzle. Not seeing the sun for week after week would (in my humble opinion) be far worse than grappling with face mask and gloves. That said, this is getting old - we haven't seen freezing since Christmas Day. That's two straight weeks below 32, not even close to a record, by the way, but yes, the natives are getting restless. Even the old-timers, the cold weather veterans, are beginning to grumble. El Nino? How 'bout El Freezo!

Serious Cold. Here is the WRF model prediction for 6 am temperatures Saturday morning: subzero across all of Minnesota, as cold as -20 from St. Cloud to the suburbs of the Twin Cities, maybe -30 in a few colder pockets near Windom and Granite Falls.

The Alberta Clipper that dumped 10" snow on Ivanhoe, 6" on Welcome, 4.5" Mankato and a cool, powdery, accident-inducing 1-3" on the Twin Cities is now sailing across the Great Lakes. Counterclockwise winds pinwheeling around this fast-moving low are inhaling a fresh burst of numbing air into the state. We're waking up to wind chill advisories (it feels like -25 to -35 out there this morning). Make sure the kids have a few extra layers, no exposed skin showing. I'd think twice about an outdoor recess today. Anytime the wind chill goes below -30 F I counsel parents (and school administrators) to use extra caution, since the risk of frostbite is several times higher than it is with a temperature in the teens or single digits. Exposed skin can become frostbitten in less than 15 minutes.

Upward & Onward. The models are in agreement - a nice warming trend is shaping up for next week, possibly a genuine January Thaw by the middle of next week! Click the graphic to see it full-screen.

Two more subzero nights are likely (we may wake up to -20 Saturday morning, but at least the worst of the wind will have eased up). Jet stream steering winds will undergo a major transformation next week, more of a westerly component blowing milder, Pacific air across the Rockies into Minnesota. It still looks like a string of 20s and some low 30s next week, and it will feel AMAZING out there. Watch, a few over-zealous people in our midst (most under the age of 25) will venture outdoors in sweats, celebrating the mythic January Thaw, which hasn't been this welcome in nearly a decade. You have to go back about 10 years to find a winter with this much snow, ice and cold. We're due for a shift in the pattern, and it's about 48 hours away. Next week will restore your faith in a (reasonable) Minnesota winter. Temperatures will run close to "average" through the third week of January, and even though more subzero outbreaks are likely through the end of February, I daresay the WORST OF WINTER WILL BE BEHIND US BY SUNDAY. I may have to eat those words, but looking at the number of hours below zero I stand by my (shaky) prediction.

Congratulations - you're on the verge of surviving the worst of what Old Man Winter could dole out this winter. It wasn't terribly pleasant. But just think how good 50 degrees will feel in a few months! The days are getting longer (have you noticed yet?) and in about 2-3 weeks the average temperature will turn upward again, for the first time in 6 months. Thank God for (big) favors!

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Intervals of bitter sun, a potentially dangerous wind. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 2 (windchills near -25 F this morning).

Tonight: Clear and numbing. Low: -13 (-20s far outlying suburbs)

Saturday: Bright sun, a bit more tolerable (less wind). High: 10

Sunday: Plenty of sun, back to "average". Flurries possible late Sunday and Sunday night. High: near 20

Monday: Mix of clouds and sun. High: 24

Tuesday: Partly sunny - milder. High: 29

Wednesday: Risk of a January Thaw. Patchy clouds, well above average (for a change). High: 33 (!) First day above freezing since December 25.

Thursday: Some sun, still quiet. High: near 30

Friday: Clouds increase, flurries, even a period of light snow north. High: 29

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
622 PM CST THU JAN 07 2010...COR

...SNOW TOTALS FROM THE JANUARY 06-07 SNOWSTORM...

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH
LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME
------  -----------------------  --  --------------   -------
 6.00   WELCOME                  MN  MARTIN           0658 AM
 6.00   DAWSON                   MN  LAC QUI PARLE    1230 AM
                HWY 212 WESTBOUND LANE SNOW COVERED DUE TO
                DRIFTING NEAR DAWSON.
 5.00   FAIRMONT                 MN  MARTIN           0815 AM
 5.00   4 N BOYD                 MN  LAC QUI PARLE    0815 AM
 5.00   GRANITE FALLS            MN  CHIPPEWA         1235 AM
                MANY ROADS AROUND COUNTY DOWN TO SINGLE LANE
                DUE TO DRIFTING SNOW.
 4.50   FARIBAULT                MN  RICE             0612 PM
 4.50   MANKATO                  MN  BLUE EARTH       1110 AM
 4.00   ST JAMES                 MN  WATONWAN         0102 PM
 4.00   BLUE EARTH               MN  FARIBAULT        0815 AM
 4.00   MORGAN                   MN  REDWOOD          0700 AM
 4.00   MORRIS                   MN  STEVENS          0100 AM
                LOTS OF DRIFTING SNOW AFFECTING AREA ROADS.
 3.50   NORTHFIELD               MN  RICE             0518 PM
 3.40   EAU CLAIRE               WI  EAU CLAIRE       0612 PM
                MEASURED AT WQOW TV.
 3.10   ST PAUL                  MN  RAMSEY           0139 PM
                OCCURRED IN NORTH ST PAUL.
 2.50   WOODBURY                 MN  WASHINGTON       1256 PM
 2.50   ELLENDALE                MN  STEELE           0700 AM
 2.20   MINNEAPOLIS              MN  HENNEPIN         0612 PM
                MEASURED AT THE MINNEAPOLIS INTERNATIONAL
                AIRPORT.
 2.00   BLOOMINGTON              MN  HENNEPIN         0308 PM
 1.30   2 W PRIOR LAKE           MN  SCOTT            0451 PM
 1.30   CHANHASSEN               MN  CARVER           0612 PM
                MEASURED AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
                OFFICE.

An Icy Wasteland

Update: 11am, Thursday. Clipper continues to drop light snow on the Twin Cities.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME
------  -----------------------  --  --------------   -------
 6.00   WELCOME                  MN  MARTIN           0658 AM
 5.00   4 N BOYD                 MN  LAC QUI PARLE    0815 AM
 5.00   FAIRMONT                 MN  MARTIN           0815 AM
 4.50   MANKATO                  MN  BLUE EARTH       0933 AM
                TV STATION.
 4.50   MANKATO                  MN  BLUE EARTH       0700 AM
 4.00   GRANITE FALLS            MN  CHIPPEWA         0900 AM
                STORM TOTAL
 4.00   BLUE EARTH               MN  FARIBAULT        0815 AM
 4.00   MORGAN                   MN  REDWOOD          0700 AM
 4.00   MANKATO                  MN  BLUE EARTH       0700 AM
 3.00   FARIBAULT                MN  RICE             0815 AM
 3.00   OLIVIA                   MN  RENVILLE         0545 AM
 3.00   REDWOOD FALLS            MN  REDWOOD          0500 AM
 2.50   ELLENDALE                MN  STEELE           0700 AM
 2.00   DURAND                   WI  PEPIN            0943 AM
 2.00   ST PAUL                  MN  RAMSEY           0900 AM
                COMO PARK AREA
 2.00   BALDWIN                  WI  ST. CROIX        0700 AM
 2.00   HASTINGS                 MN  DAKOTA           0600 AM
 1.80   NORTH ST PAUL            MN  RAMSEY           0805 AM
 1.80   MENOMONIE                WI  DUNN             0800 AM
 1.80   MINNEAPOLIS              MN  HENNEPIN         0600 AM
                MEASURED AT THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL
                INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
 1.60   1 SW ST PAUL             MN  RAMSEY           0945 AM
 1.50   4 W OWATONNA             MN  STEELE           0815 AM
 1.50   STILLWATER               MN  WASHINGTON       0700 AM
 1.40   BLOOMINGTON              MN  HENNEPIN         0820 AM
 1.30   MURDOCK                  MN  SWIFT            0815 AM
 1.10   2 SE CHETEK              WI  BARRON           0815 AM
 1.00   WILLMAR                  MN  KANDIYOHI        0815 AM
 1.00   BLOOMER                  WI  CHIPPEWA         0815 AM
 1.00   1 SSW LONSDALE           MN  RICE             0815 AM
 1.00   ELK MOUND                WI  DUNN             0700 AM
 1.00   WINTHROP                 MN  SIBLEY           0530 AM
 1.00   EAU CLAIRE               WI  EAU CLAIRE       0500 AM
 0.90   2 NW CHASKA              MN  CARVER           0700 AM
 0.90   5 NE FOREST LAKE         MN  CHISAGO          0700 AM
 0.90   BLOOMINGTON              MN  HENNEPIN         0630 AM
 0.80   JIM FALLS                WI  CHIPPEWA         0700 AM

* Clipper brushes the Twin Cities metro with 1/2 to 2" of powdery snow, heaviest amounts south metro.

* Winds increase today, creating wind chills of -20 to -30 F by tonight, in the danger zone.

* Sunshine from Friday into much of the weekend as temperatures begin to moderate.

* String of 20s next week, we may hit the freezing mark for the first time since December 25!


Like everyone else, I've been slipping, sliding and shuffling around town, trying my best to remain upright, a few close encounters on what has been described as the worst ice in nearly a decade. The problem: our Christmas Day snow partially melted, and then refroze into a 1-2" concrete-like slab of glare ice. All wheel drive, front wheel drive, nothing short of a Sherman tank is going to be sure-footed on ice. It's bad enough in our vehicles, but on foot the hazards are even more extreme - the greatest risk: falling and hitting your head on the ice. Bone-breaks, fractures, dislocated shoulders, bruises - the list goes on and on, and the statistics are truly harrowing:

- During an average year 16,000+ Americans are killed by injuries sustained by falling on ice.

- Ice-related falls are the #1 cause of injury-related death in the USA for people over the age of 73, the #2 cause of death for people ages 60-72.

- Nearly as many people are seriously injured by ice as by accidental poisoning in their homes.

- Looking at emergency room expenses, ice-related falls cost nearly as much traffic accidents in the USA. They're just underreported: they don't make "the news" the way a fender-bender might get on TV or in the newspaper. It's a solitary, often lonely mini-tragedy affecting only the family involved.


These statistics are staggering, and it dawned on me why so many people dread winter in Minnesota. It isn't the snow (per se) or even the cold. It's the risk of ice, and specifically the very real threat of FALLING on the ice and suffering a debilitating injury - or worse. Even if you survive the fall, a hip break will land you in the hospital; you may or may not be able to regain full mobility, and of course, when you're in the hospital other complications can arise, like infection. The fall may not kill you, but a nasty infection may do the trick weeks later. I get it, and the older I get the more respect I have for the ice. I LOVE snow, love to play in it, love to fire up my Polaris sleds and romp in a fresh snowfall. Besides, there's nothing more beautiful than a fresh mantel of white. Christmas '09 truly looked like a Norman Rockwell painting. But ice? It's a lot harder rationalizing ice (that isn't in a hockey arena or on a lake surface). When it's close to 0 F. the salt/sand mixture put down my MnDOT plows is not very efficient - there's precious little melting, and even if it does (temporarily) melt, it will just re-freeze, transforming snow into a sheet of dangerous glare ice. That's the situation out there right now - until the mercury reaches the 20s (next week) we'll have to grin and bear it, and do our best to get around without falling.

Here are a few tips for navigating the ice. Please send this to older friends, neighbors and family members. You probably don't want to inspect your mom or dad's footwear, but there's nothing more dangerous than walking around with boots or shoes that have perfectly-smooth soles. There are steps you can take to lower the overall risk. Here are a few:

• Wear boots or overshoes with soles. Avoid walking in shoes that have smooth surfaces, which increase the risk of slipping.

• Walk consciously. Be alert to the possibility that you could quickly slip on an unseen patch of ice. Avoid the temptation to run to catch a bus or beat traffic when crossing a street.

• Walk cautiously. Your arms help keep you balanced, so keep hands out of pockets and avoid carrying heavy loads that may cause you to become off balance.

• Walk "small." Avoid an erect, marching posture. Look to see ahead of where you step. When you step on icy areas, take short, shuffling steps, curl your toes under and walk as flatfooted as possible.

• Remove snow immediately before it becomes packed or turns to ice. Keep your porch stoops, steps, walks and driveways free of ice by frequently applying ice melter granules. This is the best way to prevent formation of dangerous ice patches. Using a potassium-based melter, such as Safe Step, instead of salt will prevent damage to concrete, grass and other vegetation or to carpets and floors should you track in some.

There is even a "correct way to fall", as ridiculous as that may sound. For a good article on ice safety click here, another article stressing preventive maintenance is here.

Close, but not quite. Wednesday's clipper focused most of the snow on far western and southwestern Minnesota, just brushing St. Cloud and the southern suburbs of the Twin Cities. For the latest high-res (USA) radar image from the NWS, click here.

Yesterday's Alberta Clipper tracked farther south/west than the computer models were suggesting (proving my theory that clippers are among the toughest weather phenomena to accurately predict). A difference of 50 miles in the track can easily mean the difference between 5" and no snow. That was the case Wednesday: 6-8" near Windom, 2-4" for Mankato and Waseca, but little or no snow from St. Cloud to the Twin Cities. Accumulating snow pretty much stayed south/west of the Minnesota River. Each successive computer run this week looked less and less impressive, a close call for snow lovers (but commuters are probably breathing a small sigh of relief). We missed most of the snow - but no such luck with the cold. There's no avoiding it. Temperatures tumble through single digits today as winds increase from the north on the backside of yesterday's no-show clipper. The mercury won't climb above zero tomorrow in spite of a pleading sun and plenty of blue sky; we wake up to -20, possibly -25 F Saturday morning. The good news: upper-level steering winds, which have been howling from the Yukon for the better part of 2 1/2 weeks - will become slightly more westerly by early next week. Milder Pacific air will slosh across the Rockies and warm us up into the 20s - 30 is a real possibility by Wednesday of next week. You will be AMAZED at how good 30 (above) feels after what we've all just been through. I can't remember a time when I've been more grateful to cheer on a belated January Thaw.

Latest Minnesota Snow Cover. There's nearly 2 feet of snow on the ground near the North Shore of Lake Superior (much of it enhanced by recent lake effect). For the very latest click here to see a wealth of winter weather information from the MN DNR.

I think we will see some 30s next week, roughly 10 degrees above average (!!) by the middle of the week, a definite atmospheric reprieve of sorts. Although we will see more arctic fronts later in January and February I still believe (hope and pray) that the coldest days and nights of the winter may be behind us by Sunday of next week - looking at the sheer number of hours below zero. We'll see if that's just wishful thinking. No big storms in sight, just a welcome thaw next week, then cooler weather returning for the third week of January (but not nearly as cold as the next few days will be). Hang in there....better, more tolerable days ahead. By next week you won't have to hold your breath every time you dash outside to get the mail (or newspaper).

Is our 2 week cold wave PROOF that global warming all a bunch of hot air? I've been gently reminding people that this is "weather", not "climate". 2009 will wind up being one of the 10 warmest years on record. Yes, it's cold out there, and much of the Northern Hemisphere is shivering, but it doesn't prove anything, long-term, keeping a true, global perspective. You can't track that looking out your window. For more on the weather vs. climate angle click here.

The local National Weather Service has done a great job documenting the snow events of 2009. Click here for all the details.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Patchy clouds and flurries early, then partial clearing with a very cold wind. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 6 (wind chill near -30 at times).

Tonight: Mostly clear, bitter again. Low: -9

Friday: Blue sky, "nanook"! High: 2

Friday night: Clear - coldest night in sight. Low: -15

Saturday: Numbing start, partly sunny, more tolerable by late afternoon. High: 12

Sunday: Mix of clouds and sun, closer to "average" for mid January. High: 22

Monday: More clouds, few passing flurries. High: near 20

Tuesday: Noticeably milder, intervals of sun. High: 26

Wednesday: Risk of a thaw! Some sun, well above average. High: 32 (!)

Risk of a Snowy Clipping

Good news (for anyone attempting to travel later today): the latest clipper is tracking about 50-75 miles farther west, taking the heaviest ("plowable") amounts of snow into far western and southwestern Minnesota, where more than 6" may pile up by breakfast Thursday. The odds of significant snow for St. Cloud and the Twin Cities have diminished; we'll be lucky to pick up an inch of powder tonight as the heaviest snow amounts slide off south and west of the Minnesota River.

Why Minnesota Meteorologists Have Gray Hair. Then again I'm happy to have ANY hair at this stage in my life, color is optional. But check out the extremes in expected snow later today. Virtually no snow expected north/east of I-94, maybe .5 to 1" for St. Cloud and the Twin Cities, 2-4" for Rochester, 4-6" Mankato, with a band of 8-12" of powdery snow possible near Windom and Pipestone. A foot of snow in the span of 80 miles, give or take. You can see how a slight wobble in the storm track can make a HUGE difference in expected snowfall.



Time-out. Forecasting Alberta Clippers is exceedingly difficult. They move quickly, moisture is usually very limited, a slight gyration in the storm track of just 50 miles can make the difference between flurries and 8" of flurries. The computer models don't do a very good job in this kind of a pattern, where a slight zig or zag in the track can make a HUGE difference in how much snow winds up in your yard - my confidence is lower than usual. For a time I was tempted to assign a "Confidence Level" for each day of the 7-Day forecast, using a scale from 1 to 10 to convey just how comfortable I was with the forecast for that specific day. The idea may have some merit, certain weather patterns have "high bust potential", there is a LOT that can go wrong. Other forecasts (in quiet patterns with relatively light jet stream steering winds aloft) are as close to "sure things" as they ever get, although in all honesty and candor: days when the forecast is truly black and white (and simple) are few and far between, maybe 50 days/year that are truly no-brainers. I thought about issuing a "Confidence Factor", and then thought again. We already hit people with too many numbers. Forecast recall is already an issue. Including another number, no matter how good the intention might be, would probably cause more confusion than anything else. So I came up with a compromise: when the forecast is unusually tough, loaded with potential "gotchas", I try to come clean and communicate this as clearly and honestly as I can.

A Very Close Call. Here is the NAM output valid 6 pm Wednesday evening, showing expected snow accumulation from noon through 6 pm - 3-6" of powder expected over far western and southwestern Minnesota, from Windom and Pipestone to Breckenridge, Wheaton and the Moorhead area. In general the farther west you drive out Highway 7, 12 or I-94 the worse travel conditions will be - the very worst conditions within 50-75 miles of the Dakota line.

Think twice before driving into southwestern Minnesota later in the day Wednesday, snow falling with temperatures this cold will result in very icy roads, with a layer of ice underneath the snow; MnDOT's salt/sand mix fairly inefficient when the mercury is flirting with zero. The good news: winds won't be too strong, that should limit blowing and drifting. This does NOT appear to be a blizzard situation shaping up out west. One thing is painfully evident, virtually certain: another body-blow of arctic air will swirl into Minnesota on the backside of today's clipper, we probably won't see zero Thursday, much of Minnesota will enjoy (wrong word) a day of negative numbers on Friday as well. Something to look forward to.

2009 Recap. The National Weather Service has put together an exhaustive, comprehensive review of 2009. Overall daytime highs averaged about .6 F. cooler than average, but nighttime lows were 1.1 F warmer than average, continuing a trend we've seen in recent decades of warmer nighttime lows. The complete recap is here.

Get ready for another potentially painful encounter with air that was drifting over the Yukon just a few short days ago, I'm expecting 3 or 4 subzero nights (as cold as -20 F Saturday morning). But it won't be quite as cold as last weekend, and all the models are still adamant about a nice little warming trend next week. I know this sounds ridiculous (and looks even dumber in print) but you will be AMAZED how good 20s will feel next week. 30 is still a possibility, and I want to believe that the coldest of the cold wave will be behind us as of Sunday. I hope that's the case, and I'm reasonably confident that (looking at the number of hours below zero and the wind chills we've been experiencing) the WORST of winter may be in our rear view mirror within 96 hours, give or take. The pattern definitely seems to be shifting to more of a "zonal", west to east wind flow. Canada is literally running out of Nanook air, at least for the short term, looking out 10-14 days. Maybe public musing that "the worst is behind us now" is just wishful thinking. All I know is that all those official NOAA forecasts of El Nino resulting in a milder winter for much of the USA, including Minnesota?

Hahahahahahaha! Oh brother.

Sorry. Not very professional. Ah, the perils of long-range prognostication. 7 days into the future is tough enough, most days. I can sympathize.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Cloudy with light snow and flurries developing (heaviest west of Cold Spring, Albany and Kimball). Potential for about 1" of light, powdery snow by tonight. Winds: NE 5-15. High: 12

Tonight: Light snow tapers, turning colder. Very icy roads (as much as 4-8" over far western MN, heaviest amounts west of Alexandria). Low: 2

Thursday: Cold sun returns, dangerously cold wind chills. High: 5 (feels like -20 to -25 F).

Thursday night: Numbing again. Low: -12

Friday: Bright sun, less wind, still bitter. High: 0 Low Friday night: -14

Saturday: Blue sky, temperatures moderating a bit. High: 12 (above)

Sunday: Partly cloudy, more tolerable again. High: 22

Monday: Patchy clouds, a few flakes. High: 21

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, noticeably "milder". High: 27

Wednesday: Grilling weather! More clouds than sun, above average. High: near 31 ! ! !

Potential for a January Thaw

"As the days lengthen the cold doth strengthen..."

- proverb

Yes it doth. Welcome to the Land of Low Weather Expectations. At this latitude, around this time of year, we're secretly relieved when the temperature hits 10 (above!). People dressed only in sweats will wander outside to get the newspaper when the mercury eclipses the 20-degree mark. 30 is a Godsend, a sign that all hope is not lost. We have not become Pluto (with lakes). At 30 F we treat our crusty vehicles to a wash, some of us even fire up the grill. The good news: computer models are increasingly hinting at a thaw within 10 days or so, 32 F possible anytime from January 14-18 as Pacific air crosses the Rockies, wafting into Minnesota on more mellow, westerly breezes. I want to see a few more computer runs before I really get excited, but so far so good - there's a good chance we'll all be able to catch our breath (and exhale) after 3 nearly continuous weeks of Nanook conditions, the next best thing to a Yukon vacation.


Potentially Plowable. The latest GFS run is hinting at some 2-4" snowfall amounts Wednesday PM into midday Thursday. With temperatures ranging from 0 to 5 above the snow will be light, powdery, fluffy - quick to accumulate but relatively easy to scrape off your driveway or sidewalk. One word of caution: when it's this cold MnDOT's salt/sand mix doesn't work well at all - I expect roads to be in pretty bad shape after lunch Wednesday through rush hour Thursday morning.

But first we have to muddle through a little more "weather." The approach of a reinforcing arctic burst will squeeze out a period of light snow from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning - the latest NAM and GFS models hinting at 2-4" of powder, just enough to make Thursday morning's commute an icy, tire-spinning, white-knuckle adventure. The farther south/west of I-94 you live, the better the chance of 3-5" of snow, a few towns near Windom, Marshall and Pipestone, in southwestern Minnesota, could pick up a cool 6" of light, powdery snow from this next clipper, while Brainerd, Crosby, Little Falls, Princeton and the northern suburbs of the Twin Cities pick up less than 1-2" of powder. With temperatures falling through single digits into negative numbers on Thursday the ability for MnDOT to melt that new snow is going to be limited at best. It's these ultra-cold weather snowfalls that are often the most perilous; the combination of partial melting (from the salt/sand mix) and repeated traffic, flattening/compressing the snow - can lead to a thin layer of glare ice underneath the snow, producing the worst of all worlds, transportation-wise. I think travel conditions may be a real mess late Wednesday into midday Thursday, a 4 on the dreaded Hassle Factor. I think it'll be a "plowable" event across much of central and southern Minnesota, the combination of bitter cold and snow creating very slippery conditions. Winds won't be too strong (under 15 mph) so I don't anticipate widespread blowing/drifting, nothing approaching blizzard conditions to worry about.

Dueling Models. There is some disagreement over how much snow may fall Wednesday PM into Thursday. Most models are suggesting 2 to 2.5", but the latest NAM is hinting at considerably more, over 5" of fluff. The final amount will probably be somewhere in-between. With a snow:rain ratio close to 30:1 (30" of snow for every 1" of liquid precipitation) I wouldn't be surprised to see some 3-4" amounts, a better chance of 5" toward Willmar, Glencoe and Mankato.

Thursday AM (no) Rush Hour. If the latest models verify we'll be scraping about 2-4" of snow off our driveways Thursday morning as a fast-moving clipper pushes a shield of light, powdery snow across the state. Minor blowing and drifting is possible behind the storm, but winds should stay under 15 mph, ruling out blizzard conditions. The bigger concern: bitter cold, with wind chills near -30 by Thursday morning.

This next Siberian Smack will be followed by an arctic breeze Thursday; the core of the bitter air oozes overhead Friday, when temperatures may remain below zero across much of Minnesota Thursday and Friday, nighttime lows once again in the -15 to -25 range across central Minnesota, nearly as cold as last weekend. This is getting old - I know. I'm sick and tired of the cold, too. The snow is easier to take, right? At least you can play in the snow - thousands of Minnesotans make a living from snow. But subzero temperatures, hour after hour? What's the old saying, "anything that doesn't kill me makes me stronger." Right. At this rate we're all going to be very, very strong.

Hints of a Serious Thaw. Here is some of the raw GFS guidance. Check out the projected temperatures from January 14-18, at least 2-3 days with highs at or near 32 F. An encouraging trend - we'll see if it's real.


There's a better than 50-50 chance of a January Thaw by the middle of the month, a few days with highs flirting with 30. The 9-10" of snow on the ground will limit just how high the mercury can go, but we're due for a break, and I don't think this long-anticipated warmer front is a mirage. The January Thaw is a strange, largely unexplained meteorological phenomena, most frequent east of the Mississippi River. Weather researchers really don't have a good explanation for this upward blip in temperature, usually right after the first of the year, about 2-4 weeks before average temperatures begin to trend upward again, responding to a higher sun angle and more daylight. Whatever the ultimate cause, we'll take it. I'd like 2 weeks of January Thaws please - to go. Call me crazy (we WILL see more subzero weather into February, that goes without saying) but I have a strange hunch that the cold spell from Christmas through about Jan. 10 or so may wind up being the coldest stretch of the winter season - the longest duration of subzero temperatures and nasty wind chill. We'll see. I've been accused of being a naive optimist. We'll see - place your bets.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Numbing sunshine, dry - quiet. Winds: NW 5-10. High: 11

Tonight: Partly cloudy, not quite as frigid as recent nights. Low: -9

Wednesday: Cloudy with light snow by afternoon, 1-2" powder by evening with increasingly icy conditions on the highways. High: 9

Thursday: Turning colder as snow tapers, total accumulations of 2-4" possible, even more south/west of I-94. Very icy with dangerous wind chills (-30 F). High: -1 Low: -15

Friday: Yukon sun returns, less wind. High: near 0

Saturday: Better, partly sunny, more tolerable. High: 8

Sunday: Much nicer, some sun through high clouds. High: 23

Monday: Above average (for a change) with patchy clouds, noticeably milder. High: 28

Scenes from a midwinter brain-freeze

The last 48 hours confirms my theory that Minnesota must have been "discovered" during the summer months.

Plowable snowfall possible late Wednesday into Thursday.

Reinforcing shot of bitter air arrives late in the week, not quite as cold as last weekend's Siberian outbreak.

20s (above zero!) may return by next Sunday/Monday. Barbecue weather.

Break in the arctic pattern possible after January 13-14.

Yesterday I took the family to the Vikes game; simple things like parking, walking, BREATHING took on a new sense of urgency as we navigated the icy labyrinth of downtown Minneapolis. Here's what I remember: billowing clouds of blue smoke (so thick I had trouble seeing the road at times), piles of snow so high they became a traffic hazard (making it tough to see oncoming cars), my car making little screaming/shrieking sounds when I first turned over the key in the parking ramp, the air thick and cold with the consistency of sulfuric syrup. It only hurts when you breathe, right? The ice was especially nasty - traffic compressing snow into a concrete-like film of glare ice that turned my all-wheel drive vehicle into a skidding, sliding bumper-car. Accelerate - brake - slide to a stop halfway into the intersection. Our team won (quite convincingly), so the dire lack of degrees didn't matter much in the end.

One Nasty Wake-up Call. Here were the 9 am temperatures across central and southern Minnesota this morning at 9 am, still -10 to -20 across much of the region. Mercifully winds were light, so the wind chill wasn't much lower than the actual air temperature. Character-building....

Urban Heat Island. The blue showing up on the IR satellite image isn't cloud cover, but cold air! Note a slight break in the chill across Hennepin and Ramsey counties, the result of homes, businesses, all emitting heat, keeping temperatures 10-15 degrees warmer than greater Minnesota. This is one of the most spectacular examples I can recall ever seeing in the data.

Sunday Almanac for Minnesota (courtesy of the National Weather Service)

             STATION           MAX     MIN      SNOW
            NAME             TEMP    TEMP     DEPTH
AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN ARPT     :   3  /  -21  /     M
STC : ST CLOUD MN ARPT       :   4  /  -27  /     10
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN ARPT    :   7  /  -14  /     9
RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN ARPT  :  -4  /  -27  /     M
DLH : DULUTH AIRPORT         :   6  /  -26  /     20
INL : INTERNATIONAL FALLS    :  -5  /  -37  /     18
HIB : HIBBING ARPT           :   7  /  -28  /     M
GNA : GRAND MARAIS MN        :  13  /   -6  /     M
RST : ROCHESTER MN ARPT      :   4  /  -15  /     15

We are all living in America's best kept secret, the cold weather headlines on the Today Show and Nightly News reinforce all those old, tired cliches about Minnesota's extreme climate. I get a little defensive when people (who don't live here) give me a hard time for staying in Minnesota year-round. A handful honestly believe I've lost my mind. They have no concept of what's out here - which is probably a good thing. To them this is fly-over country, the Great White Tundra somewhere north and west of Chicago, a vast Siberia-lite gulag of cold, snow and ice. Well, so what? It's probably a good thing we have occasional winters like this, or Minnesota would be overrun, overpopulated, a blighted, traffic-clogged, concrete and asphalt temple of suburban sprawl. We all pay a cold-weather-tax, a meteorological toll, for the privilege of living in one of the most remarkable places on the planet. At the risk of sounding like a shill for the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce this is an amazing place: clean air and water, health care second to none, a work ethic off the scale, warm, friendly people who genuinely care about their neighbors, and, incredibly, embrace the outdoors, no matter what the weather conditions. And the summers? Well, I can't think of anywhere else I'd rather ride out May, June, July and August (and September!) than Minnesota. Having a winter like this will make the Summer of '10 taste even sweeter. Yes, at this latitude we EARN our summers, and this year will be no exception.

Atmospheric Flip-Flop. According to the weather consulting firm, Planalytics, the USA experienced the warmest November since 2001. That was followed by the coldest New Year's week in 9 years, the snowiest, nationwide, since 2000. Almost makes one wonder what's coming next?

There's a good chance the coldest stretch of winter may...MAY already be in our rear view mirror, and it wasn't nearly as cold as last winter. In mid January of 2009 we had 3 subzero DAYS, nighttime lows as cold as -22 F! By comparison we woke up to -15 Saturday, -14 Sunday - almost reasonable, right? You're not buying any of this, are you? January is the coldest month of the year, on average - the next few weeks are historically the coldest of January (temperatures bottom out around the third week of the month, on average) so we just have to grin and bear it, think warm thoughts and muddle through. For me browsing Expedia for warm weather weekend destinations helps, so does taking the snowmobile out for a run, and something as simple and easy as browsing my laptop and reading a stack of newspapers under a full-spectrum light, one that mimics the sun. Having the sun out helped. What my friends living on the east coast fail to realize is week after week of 25-35 with high humidity and gray skies can feel much worse than 0 F. and sunny here at home.

Supercharged Clipper. A Pacific storm forecast to cross the Rockies before diving southeast across the Plains will put down a carpet of fresh snow by midweek, the heaviest amounts forecast over southwestern Minnesota, where some 4-6"+ amounts are possible. The latest NAM and GFS computers are hinting at 1-3" of powder here late Wednesday into Thursday, maybe even some 4"+ amounts south/west of I-94. Stay tuned....things may get pretty icy/slippery here again by Thursday.

A bubble of high pressure hangs on through Tuesday, temperatures recover a bit, but at least we'll be treated to a mostly-blue sky much of Monday and Tuesday. The next Pacific storm will cross the Rockies, transform into an Alberta Clipper, spreading a few inches of Minnesota powder into town late Wednesday into Thursday (latest model hinting at 2-4", but it's still early to be throwing inch-amounts around, in truth). This storm will inhale a fresh shot of numbing air into town late in the week, but some moderation is likely late in the weekend, one model hinting at 20s by next Sunday and Monday, with another shot of light snow roughly 1 week out. I've been scanning other models, and they seem to be hinting at a slight break in this Nanook pattern, temperatures forecast to run well above average from Jan. 11 - 17 (see map below, click on the image to bring it full-screen). I still think this is payback for our incredibly mild and quiet November. We'll certainly see more arctic fronts into February and March, but if last weekend doesn't wind up being the coldest stretch of winter, it will almost certainly be one of the 2 or 3 coldest outbreaks. No January thaw in sight (yet), but I'll keep looking. We're due for a break in the pattern any day now.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Generous sun, still nippy. Winds: NW 5-10. High: near 10

Tonight: Mostly clear, plenty cold. Low: -10

Tuesday: Blue sky, not quite as extreme. High: near 10

Wednesday: Clouds increase, light snow arrives late PM. High: 8

Thursday: Light snow tapers, windy and much colder. Potential for 1-3"+ powder. High: 3

Friday: Numbing sunlight returns. High: 1 Low: -15

Saturday: Fading sun as clouds increase. High: 10

Sunday: Feeling better. More clouds than sun. High: 22

Monday: Not exactly spring fever, but much better. Some sun, above average! High: 26

Coldest morning of the winter?

Metaphysical question: can you be any colder than numb? At some point (well into negative numbers) it's hard to tell much of a difference. You feel the burn, the tickle when you sip in a breath quickly turns to a throbbing, acidic burn, almost as if you've just been dropped off on the planet Neptune. Our new motto: Pluto, with lakes! I don't think I'll get a call back from the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce on that one. Just trying to be helpful. Welcome to the coldest morning since January 16, 2009, when the mercury bottomed out at -22 at MSP International Airport. That's not wind chill, that was the actual air temperature. We had ideal conditions for a frigid night: fresh, arctic air, light winds and crystal clear skies. The mercury started out chilly (our "high" on Saturday was 1 F). Beat your chest, let out a little primal scream (feel free to wake the neighbors) because my hunch is that you may have just endured the coldest night of the winter. Historically our coldest weather is about 2-3 weeks away, coming roughly 1 month past the winter solstice. It takes about a month or so before a higher sun angle compensates for long nights and lingering snow cover across North America. By February we're picking up an extra 2 minutes of daylight and about 1-2 degrees every week. Long-range guidance is hinting that, at some point, roughly 10 days from now, Canada will essentially run out of bitter air, jet stream steering winds will swing around to a slightly more moderate, westerly direction, and we may be blessed with 20s, even an outside shot at 30 degrees. Where are we living, where 20 degrees seems like a blessing, a Godsend, a giant serving of atmospheric relief? The net result: a state of hardened weather warriors. With the possible exception of portions of North Dakota and interior Alaska, Minnesota pretty much has Cold Weather Boasting Rights for America. What about Montana and Wyoming? Not nearly as cold, on average, more influence from the mild Pacific - the harshest airmasses often stay east of the Rockies.

It was SO COLD! Infrared satellite imagery measures the temperature of clouds (the colder, thicker clouds producing the most rain/snow usually show up vividly). But when it's this cold the satellite has trouble distinguishing between clouds and cold air. In this case you're looking at bitter air (-10 to -20 F) streaming southward across Minnesota. The only exception: the immediate Twin Cities (appears gray, not blue). On a clear, winter night the "Urban Heat Island" (heat given off from homes, businesses) can keep major urban areas 10-15 degrees warmer than outlying suburbs. Such was the case overnight: temperatures in the downtowns and close-in suburbs were at least 10 degrees warmer, but still well below zero. Interesting factoid: because of the urban heat island the growing season for downtown Mpls. and St. Paul is nearly 2 weeks longer than it is for the outlying suburbs).

Atmospheric Justice. Yes, there is a God, and he is fair. I couldn't help but grin when I checked out Florida's forecast: freeze warnings as far south as Naples and the suburbs of Miami, hard freeze warnings for northern Florida, where lows may dip into the mid 20s. The price of orange juice may spike in the coming weeks, I could see some light/moderate damage to Florida's citrus crop because of the severe chill.

The bottom line: as ludicrous as it sounds (with an air temperature well below zero) if you're a). dressed properly (multiple layers to trap your body's natural body warmth), and b). ACTIVE, doing something, anything, skiing, sledding, walking, hurling snowballs - you're ok. It's the people who are sedentary (ie stationary), or elderly, who have poor circulation, and infants - all have a much higher risk of not only frostbite but hypothermia, a slow, insidious drop in body temperature, which can prove fatal if not caught in time. Symptoms include slurred speech, disorientation, persistent chills. Check on older friends, family members and neighbors - just to make sure their home or apartment is staying warm enough in these extreme conditions. Err on the side of caution - we certainly don't want to start out the new year on a tragic note.



Saturday's Numbers (courtesy of the National Weather Service)

:            STATION           MAX     MIN     24-HR    SNOW  SNOW
:             NAME             TEMP    TEMP    PCPN     FALL  DEPTH
AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN ARPT     :  -5  /  -26  /     M   /    M / M
STC : ST CLOUD MN ARPT       :  -3  /  -24  /     T   /    T / 10
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN ARPT    :   1  /  -15  /   0.00  /    0 / 9
RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN ARPT  : -10  /  -29  /     T   /    M / M
DLH : DULUTH AIRPORT         :  -2  /  -21  /   0.00  /    0 / 20
INL : INTERNATIONAL FALLS    :  -8  /  -37  /   0.00  /    0 / 18
HIB : HIBBING ARPT           :  -1  /  -24  /   0.00  /    M / M
GNA : GRAND MARAIS MN        :   2  /  -12  /   0.00  /    M / M
RST : ROCHESTER MN ARPT      :  -6  /  -19  /   0.00  /    0 / 16

A stubborn ridge of high pressure glued over the Upper Midwest will act like a giant roadblock, forcing any storms to detour well south/west of Minnesota this week. We should stay dry through Wednesday, with only a small chance of light, accumulating snow (powdery) by Thursday as a reinforcing jab of Siberian air surges south. We'll shiver like crazy on Friday, but the good news: a rapid warming trend is likely for the weekend, at least a 48 hour reprieve, with some 20s, even an outside shot at 30 degrees by Sunday (still a little too early to tell, but some relief from the biting Yukon breeze is likely by the weekend). More numbing air drains southward out of Canada next week, probably not quite as cold as what's passing overhead right now, but cold enough. We may get a longer break from this brittle streak by the third week of January, but no extended thaws are expected.

With any luck we may see a brief, fleeting January thaw next weekend. There's at least a 40% probability you'll regain some feeling in your extremities within 6 days. And if this isn't the coldest morning of the entire winter, it'll certainly be in the top 3. I wouldn't be shocked to hear of some -30 to -40 F. readings over northern Minnesota, maybe a -45 near Embarrass and Tower, the twin towns of extreme cold.


Yes, it's "cold enough" for me. This is my drain spout, next to my garage. I've never seen anything quite like this, almost like it was "flash-frozen" - visually it pretty well sums up the rough stretch of weather we're muddling through.



Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Arctic sun, light winds, dangerously cold (if you're not dressed properly). Winds: NE 5-10. High: 3

Tonight: Mostly clear, not quite as harsh. Still plenty cold. Low: -12

Monday: Blue sky much of the day, nice to be above zero again. High: 8

Tuesday: Increasing clouds, a little closer to average. High: 13

Wednesday: Chance of light snow/flurries late. High: near 12

Thursday: Windy and colder with light snow, maybe an inch or two of fluff. High: 8

Friday: Bitter sun returns, another temperature relapse. High: near 0

Saturday: Numbing start, rapid warming trend as clouds increase. High: 15

Sunday: Partly sunny, noticeably milder. High: 25 (above!)

Subzero Saturday

* Waking up to the coldest morning of the winter so far, probably one of the 2-3 coldest mornings of the entire winter.

* A subzero Saturday across most of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities.

* Next chance of 1-2" of Minnesota powder next Tuesday-Wednesday.

* First chance of 20-25 degrees? January 14-17.


Crunchy, squeaky snow. Ice crystals forming (spontaneously) in my nostrils. A little tickle in the bottom of your lungs when you breathe deep. It must be subzero out there right now, negative numbers, a dire dearth of kinetic energy. But look at the bright side: neighbors will not be whining about the humidity today. You won't be swatting at bugs. The air is fresh, bracing, exhilarating, brisk with a capital B! O.K. I'm grasping at straws here, but so much of a Minnesota winter is psychological. If you tell yourself "this is killing me" you'll probably slip into a deep, dark funk. If you take it in stride, knowing full well that this pain is only temporary, in 3 short weeks the average temperature starts to rise again, the days are getting longer (hooray!) and the odds of getting mugged are slim to nil. Research bears this out: criminals dislike subzero cold as much as everyone else - the odds of violent crime on a cold winter day are a tiny fraction of what they might be on a warm, muggy, mid-summer day. That, and your garbage doesn't stink.

Relative Safety. Only Wisconsin and Michigan have seen fewer billion dollar weather disasters than Minnesota since 1980. The odds of extreme storms is 4-5 times greater across much of the south and southeastern USA, according to NCDC.


If any so-called friends call from Scottsdale or Naples later today, hoping to "chat about the weather", waxing eloquent about the balmy, shirtsleeve weather floating overhead, remind them a). they're living in a DESERT! or b). Minnesota still sees storms, but at least our storms DON'T HAVE NAMES! Odds are they'll change the subject. Yes, we get a lot of guff about our extreme weather, but according to the NCDC, the National Climatic Data Center, the Upper Midwest is one of the safest places to live in the entire nation. The southeastern USA has seen nearly 4 times more billion (with a b) dollar weather disasters since 1980. Think about it: half the population of America lives in hurricane alley, within striking distance of screaming Texas-size super-storms. Much of the west is earthquake alley, living precariously close to shifting fault-lines that might slip at any moment, unleashing a horrific earthquake. Los Angeles, San Francisco, even Seattle are all living on borrowed time. The air is cold outside my window, but at least the ground underfoot is firm. Am I rationalizing? Perhaps, but I consider this my annual cold-weather-tax. This is the price we pay for living in the most amazing state in the union. Is there anywhere else you'd really rather be from May through October? Probably not. Take a bow - you still have cold weather boasting rights, at least for the lower 48 states. Only Siberia has greater extremes than Minnesota. And we have better nightlife (and professional football).

Lake Effect Snow. Bitter, subzero air passing over the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes are resulting in narrow bands of moderate/heavy snow 50-150 miles downwind of Lake Michigan, Erie and Ontario. Some 5-10" snowfall amounts are possible near South Bend, IN and the suburbs of Cleveland and Buffalo. To see the latest, high-res NOAA radar composite for the USA click here.

The United (Snowy) States of America. At last report at least 1" of snow was on the ground across 55-60% of America. The latest surge of arctic air may push frosty conditions as far south as the Florida panhandle by the weekend. To get the very latest snow cover reports (and thousands of additional graphics) from Ham Weather (owned by WeatherNation), click here.

:            STATION           MAX     MIN     24-HR    SNOW  SNOW
:             NAME             TEMP    TEMP    PCPN     FALL  DEPTH
AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN ARPT     :  -3  /  -12  /     M   /    M /  M
STC : ST CLOUD MN ARPT       :   2  /   -8  /   0.00  /    0 / 10
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN ARPT    :   6  /    1  /     T   /    T /  9
RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN ARPT  :  -1  /  -10  /     M   /    M /  M
DLH : DULUTH AIRPORT         :   0  /   -9  /     T  /   0.1 / 20
INL : INTERNATIONAL FALLS    :  -9  /  -19  /     T   /    T / 18
HIB : HIBBING ARPT           :  -3  /  -11  /   0.00  /    M /  M
GNA : GRAND MARAIS MN        :   7  /   -4  /   0.00  /    M /  M
RST : ROCHESTER MN ARPT      :   2  /   -6  /     T   /  0.1 / 16

A windchill advisory remains in effect; slap on a few additional layers before wandering outside this morning. The mercury never climbed above zero New Year's Day across roughly the northern half of Minnesota. We started off cold, and with plenty of snow on the ground statewide and clear skies the mercury was able to tumble to double-digit negative numbers overnight. We're waking up to the coldest morning of the winter so far, and a low sun angle will limit just how much temperatures can recover today. A subzero Saturday is likely across most of Minnesota, certainly north/west of the Twin Cities. Mercifully the winds are easing, so the wind chill won't be much lower than the actual air temperature (which will be bad enough). Go ahead, beat your chest, let out a little primal scream. Scare the neighbors. I dare you.

That old tired cliche, "too cold to snow" rings (partially) true in this kind of pattern: when it's near zero the main storm track is usually suppressed too far south for significant snow here in Minnesota. Of course it can snow at any temperature below 32, but when the mercury is colder than 5-10 F it often means the core of the jet stream is hundreds of miles to our south, making it impossible for substantial moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to reach this latitude. We can still get light accumulations (it doesn't take much moisture to squeeze out a quick inch or two of powder when it's this cold). Models are hinting at a light accumulation next Tuesday night into Wednesday, maybe a quick inch or two. After that the next opportunity to freshen up the snow will come a week from Monday, on or around January 11, when a few more inches may pile up. Models are suggesting a temporary reprieve from the coldest winds after Jan. 14-15. We MAY see a day or two above 20 F, but right now I wouldn't hold my breath. I don't see anything even remotely resembling a thaw. What the heck happened to El Nino? It shows you the value of these seasonal long-range forecasts. That's why (frankly) I don't like to venture beyond 10-14 days, because there are just too many variables involved, too many things that can come back to bite you in the Doppler.

Next Potential for Snow? The GFS model is hinting at a couple inches of powdery snow next Tuesday night and Wednesday, ahead of the next reinforcing jab of arctic air.

The cold will linger, a string of nighttime lows below zero through Tuesday morning of next week, daytime highs reaching 10-15 F early next week before tumbling again the latter half of next week.

A few minor snowfalls are shaping up: next Tuesday-Wednesday, again on Monday, Jan. 11.

Looks like a real January. Call your travel agent (or buy a sun lamp). This doesn't show any sign of breaking anytime soon.

Free fresh air for everyone!

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Bitter sun, light winds. Winds: N 5-10. High: -3 (wind chill of -10 to -20 by afternoon)

Tonight: Mostly clear, numbing. Low: -16

Sunday: Blue sky, still arctic. High: 4 (above!)

Monday: Some recovery. Dim sun through increasing high clouds. High: 10

Tuesday: Period of light snow or flurries possible. High: 16

Wednesday: Snow tapers to flurries, potential for a couple inches of powdery snow early. High: 13 (falling during the day).

Thursday: Patchy clouds, few flakes. High: 6

Friday: Bright, ineffective sunshine. High: 8