Olympic-Sized Snow in DC

I have to admit, I was a little faked out yesterday. I thought for a VERY brief moment that I saw lightning in the distance, but quickly noticed fireworks above the bare treetops, not an all too common site for February, but when you 'think' you see lightning in the middle of winter when the air temperature is around 20 degrees, you know you have a serious case of SDS or "Supercell Deprivation Syndrome" - it's a pretty legit syndrome that many in the storm chaser community go through ever winter at about this time, though, for some... it sets in much sooner. See here if you suffer from SDS - thanks to www.texastailchasers.com for that write-up.

Today is a big day... Yes, get ready for Puppy Bowl VI complete with a kitten half time show! If you're still sulking about the Vikings loss, the Puppy Bowl might be just as exciting as the Super Bowl this year. For the rest of you who can stomach Miami, FL without the purple and gold present - you should be in for a good show. Indianapolis Colts take on the New Orleans Saints at 6:25pm ET with the Colts the favorite by a field goal. I guess I'll go with Who Dat by a field goal in OT.


Olympic-Size Snow in DC
Take a look at the picture below of Bethesda, MD where at least 20" of snow fell across a great deal of the Mid-Atlantic States. Hundreds of thousands of people are without power and transportation came to a near stand-still. All flights from Reagan National and Dulles were canceled "Until further notice" on Saturday. Here are some snowfall reports from earlier on Saturday in the DC area where 20" to 30" amounts were very common.



Significant Snow Potential for Central MN
Here's the latest Winter Weather Headlines from the National Weather Service for the the Twin Cities:

Winter Storm Watch

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.A LONG PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LONG DURATION
OF SNOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF
10 INCHES OVER THE TWO DAY PERIOD. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NEAR ALEXANDRIA AND LITTLE FALLS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEST SIDE OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA AND
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...ALTHOUGH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN
EXCESS OF 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE SNOW
WILL BE PRODUCED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE SWINGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA AND ILLINOIS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP
TO INTENSIFY A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THESE FEATURES WILL WORK IN CONCERT TO PRODUCE THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WHICH
WILL CAUSE TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO FURTHER DETERIORATE.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MONTEVIDEO TO LITCHFIELD AND ALONG AND WEST
OF A LITCHFIELD...TO SAINT CLOUD...TO LITTLE FALLS LINE HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR FROM SAINT CLOUD TO ALEXANDRIA.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
CONTINUES FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35... AND INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF HUTCHINSON...THE
TWIN CITIES METRO AREA....AND SAINT PETER. FINALLY...A WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA FOR SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
NEW ULM...TO MANKATO...TO OWATONNA LINE. THIS INCLUDES THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL TRACK...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHERE THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL OCCUR. STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM.

Here's a quick gander at how much snow could pile up over the next few days (thru Tuesday) - note the heaviest of the snow setting up show over the I-94 corridor. Keep in mind that this will not be a quick hitting snow, rather a long duration snow event where snow amounts will likely pile up to more than inconvenient levels if you don't stay on top of the situation. However, Monday morning commute is sure to be a white knuckle event, so plan ahead.




Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Sunday: Flurries and light snow showers developing, about 1/2" of powder possible late in the day. High: 26

Tonight: Steadier light snow developing, another 1" to 2" possible overnight. Low: 19

Monday: Cloudy with light snow showers likely, an additional 1" to 3" or so possible. Additional light accumulations likely overnight. High: 24

Tuesday: Scattered light snow showers gradually ending, light coating possible. High: 21

Wednesday: Decreasing clouds, becoming partly cloudy and chilly. High: 19

Thursday: Partly cloudy, slightly warmer. High: 20

Friday: Partly sunny, a little warmer yet. High 23

Saturday: Partly cloudy, minor set back in the temperature department. High 20

Say It Ain't Snow

Well, I finally caught up with my shoveling. I've been neglecting it for a few days and unfortunately, it seems I've waited too long because the junk at the end of the driveway turned into a big block of ice. The plow has been by a few times to add to the rigid, wintry mess and I'm thinking it's a lost cause at this point. I don't know about you, but I'll probably have to wait until the end of winter to uncover the bottom of the driveway. For those of you who take pride in having a nicely manicured driveway/walkway keep those shovels handy, flurries and light snow showers will continue off and on through the weekend, but won't really cause much of a commotion until late Sunday - Super Bowl Sunday.

The image below shows the accumulated snowfall through Monday night. Firstly, note the bulls eye over Washington DC - There could isolated amounts of 30" by the end of the weekend. This will be quite an event, bringing the city to a stand-still. At least it's happening over the weekend... although, I think there will still be some issues into the early part of next week. We are likely to see some light accumulations here in Minnesota, enough to shovel and plow again, but it'll be coming over the span of a few days, unlike that of the quick hitting heavy snow out east.


QPF - Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
This is the QPF forecast from NOAA, which shows the accumulated liquid through Wednesday night. This extended model shows nearly 0.70" liquid (there will be some wiggle room on that number), but temperatures will be cold enough this next week for all snow. A quick a dirty rule of thumb for snow forecasting is 10:1 - which means that for every 1" of liquid water, you'd have 10" of snow. If you do the math on that 0.70" of liquid - you get some fairly decent accumulations. Again, these are just preliminary numbers, though, one thing that might keep the hassle factor lower with this potential snow is that the snow is likely to fall in increments of an 1" or 2" over a few day period. Keeping up with the snow on roadways and such shouldn't be a major ordeal.


A Quick Side
I thought this was kind of neat - thought you'd enjoy it. This is a satellite (US military’s DMSP - 18 weather satellite) image of a Northern Lights display over northern Europe from earlier this week – note the yellow band at the top of the picture – that’s it! Cool, huh?


Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Mostly cloudy, a few flurries possible. High: 27

Tonight: Cloudy with a few flakes. Low: 15

Sunday: Another period of light snow, about 1" of powder possible during the day. Steadier light snow developing overnight, another 1" to 2" possible. High: 24

Monday: Cloudy with light snow showers likely, light accumulations possible. High: 21

Tuesday: Cloudy with a chance of snow. High: 20

Wednesday: Decreasing clouds. High: 19

Thursday: Partly cloudy and chilly. High: 17

Friday: Partly sunny, slightly warmer. High 23

Winter Lite

Lately it seems that most (but not all) of our Minnesota winters have been neutered. De-fanged. Immunized against old-fashioned, tire-spinning, headline-grabbing, school-closing, water-cooler-bragging snowstorms. When it snows now (with a few notable exceptions, like the Christmas Day storm) it tends to be in dribs and drabs: an inch here, 2 or 3 sloppy inches there. While Washington D.C. is bracing for a cool foot (or two) of new snow by Saturday evening WE are under a winter weather advisory for a MIX of rain, ice and snow. To make matters worse we had an air pollution advisory yesterday. Wait: rain, ice and smog in early February - in Minnesota? What have we become: Sacramento? Even the alleged experts can't say (with anything approaching 100% certainty) that big, wet, sloppy storms detouring well south of Minnesota much of the winter is a symptom of El Nino. It is consistent with an El Nino winter, when storms tend to be pushed farther south, resulting in cooler, stormier conditions for the deep south and east coast, while the northern tier states trend drier (and milder). The milder part is still very much up in the air. The Climate Center folks at NOAA are convinced that February will wind up warmer than normal, and for that matter so will the next 3 months, through the end of April. I'm not convinced, not yet. Looking out the next 2 weeks or so temperatures will run a good 10 degrees below average, nothing even remotely resembling a real warm front is shaping up through the third week of February. Spring fever? Give it 8 weeks, minimum. Of COURSE it will inevitably snow on the new Twins outdoor stadium, and that (in turn) will make national news, which will just reinforce the old, tired image of Minnesota as a frozen wasteland frequented by Prince and Garrison Keillor. That in turn will keep our population stable and prevent us from becoming "L.A with lakes", which is a very good thing for all of us. Just a theory. We'll see.


One Mixed-Up Map. Over 16" for Baltimore and Washington, maybe 1-2" for the Twin Cities, 2-3" for St. Cloud, over 6" for far western Minnesota and much of North Dakota.

The Stormy Details. Check out the latest watches, warnings, advisories from NOAA, winter weather advisories for much of Minnesota, but full blown winter storm warnings from Indianapolis to Columbus, Philadelphia and Washington D.C. Blizzard warnings are posted for Delaware and much of New Jersey for near white-out conditions late tonight and Saturday. For the latest (clickable) watches and warnings, click here for an interactive map from NOAA.

We're just getting brushed, side-swiped by the mega-storm now churning toward Washington D.C., where 27" of snow has already piled up - that number will be closer to 40" by Sunday. How did that happen? A sloppy inch or two is possible today, expect a white-knuckle morning commute, but the steadiest snow should taper off a bit for the drive home later today. Freeways that have been successfully treated by MnDOT should be mostly wet and slushy, but watch the side streets and alleys - they may be snow-covered and very icy. A push of drier air approaching from the Great Lakes will cause flurries to taper Saturday, but a southbound cold front whips up another period of light, powdery snow Sunday as temperatures fall through the 20s - I could see an inch, maybe 2" in a few towns. It still looks cold the first half of next week, not quite as numbing as it appeared yesterday at this time. Let's just say the Groundhog had the right idea. 6 more weeks of winter? Count on it.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Light snow, about 1-2", tapering to mostly flurries by late afternoon. Slippery roads. Winds: E 10-15. High: 28

Tonight: Lingering clouds, few flakes around town. Low: near 20

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, a few flurries possible. High: 26

Sunday: Another period of light snow, about 1" of powder possible. High: 23

Monday: Flurries taper, feeling colder again. High: 20

Tuesday: More clouds than sun, more flurries. High: 16

Wednesday: Peeks of sun, colder than average. High: 17

Thursday: Partly sunny and chilly. High: 18

A couple "plowable" events

Washington D.C. has already seen nearly 30" of snow, 18" above average to-date, and another 10" is on the way by Saturday. Keep in mind that an INCH is a big deal in our nation's capital, capable of instilling dread, closing schools - inciting a run on area grocery stores in a mad-mass panic. I'm really not exaggerating. There is nothing more baffling (and on some level, humorous) than being in D.C. before a snow "event". The locals just go nuts. Imagine how they're feeling tonight, doing everything but barricading the doors and retreating to their basements. Imagine how safe they'd feel up here on the tundra, where the snow will fall lightly, in reasonable dribs and drabs. No mega-storms in sight, but a couple of minor "plowable" events are shaping up: Friday, again on Sunday. No headline-generating storms, but the local newscasts will still have a reporter stationed outdoors in the first 5 minutes of the newscast, reporting on icy conditions, assorted fender-benders, turning a minor snowfall into "breaking news". I know of what I speak. Been there. Done that. I'll be the first to admit that a lousy inch of slush, falling at the wrong time and the right place can cause a world of hurt. An inch! That's why NOAA has started to rate snowstorms, just like tornadoes and hurricanes, on a similar scale, from 1 to 5. The ratings are based not only on the AMOUNT of expected snow, but the presence of ice, high winds, low visibility, cold temperatures (which make it tougher for road crews to melt snow on major highways with salt & sand) and the time of day the storm actually hits. It's not a bad idea, and it may even catch on over time, something we've been considering adding to our daily forecasts.


Clipped again. Here is the latest (NAM) model prediction for snowfall through Friday night. Much of the area is forecast to pick up at least 2" of wet, slushy snow, with a few 3"+ amounts south/west of I-94. Extreme southwestern MN may see as much as 3-6" of wet snow from Friday's fast-moving clipper.

Advisories and watches. The latest from NOAA, showing a winter weather advisory extending into southwestern MN, where some 3-6" snowfall amounts are possible by Friday night. The farther north/east you travel across Minnesota the lesser the snowfall amounts. Check out the winter storm watch posted from Indianapolis to Columbus and Washington D.C., where some 6-12" amounts are possible by Saturday. Want to see a (big) pile of snow? Drive southeast - quickly. To check out an interactive map with the latest watches/warnings and radar check out this (very cool) URL from Ham Weather (a division of WeatherNation). Yep, I'm a little biased.

It's probably a better idea, a bit more practical than NAMING winter storms. The newspaper up in Grand Forks did that back in the 70s and 80s, naming winter storms after famous hockey players and local politicians. The thought behind this gimmick: make the storms more "memorable", easier to track - avoid confusion when there are multiple storms in the forecast. Not sure if people would respond to "Winter Storm Bubba" but it sure is a fascinating idea. For now we'll that one pass...

America the snow-covered. Check out all the snow on the ground, as far south as northern Texas, Arkansas and the hills of northern Georgia. We feel their cold, crystalline pain, don't we?

The rumors are true: a little freezing drizzle may fall later today as temperatures climb through the 20s to near 30. A period of steadier snow is likely Thursday night and Friday, with a potential for 2-3" of wet, slushy snow from St. Cloud to the Twin Cities by the dinner hour Friday, enough to gum up traffic and complicate your Friday commute. But with temperatures approaching 30 most freeways and major roads will probably be wet/slushy, while side streets could be snow-covered and very slippery. The mercury drops steadily through the teens over the weekend; a reinforcing clipper, marking the leading edge of subzero air, whipping up light, powdery snow - similar to what fell on Monday. Another inch or two of fluff may accumulate Monday, but cold sun returns for much of Monday-Tuesday of next week, with at least 3-4 subzero nights and daytime highs 10-15 degrees below average. Terrific. The good news: the next outbreak of Canadian air won't stick around for long. A Pacific breeze kicks in the latter half of next week, meaning a quick rebound into the 20s by Wednesday or Thursday.

An icy scenario? A think layer of warm air aloft may turn light snow over to a period of freezing drizzle for a time today, drizzle freezing on-contact with cold surfaces. Any treated roads/freeways will probably be mostly-wet, but watch the secondary roads - they may be quite icy by afternoon/evening, followed by a changeover to mostly snow by tonight.
An end to the temperature honeymoon. Two more days of highs in the upper 20s to near 30, and then a temperature-tumble kicks in this weekend, stabilizing by early next week with some single digit highs and at least 3-4 subzero nights from Sunday through Wednesday. One step forward, two steps back...
A couple of "snow events." Disclaimer/caveat: clippers are notoriously fickle, but the models are in fairly good agreement that we'll see at least a couple inches of slush by Friday, another inch or two of powdery snow on Sunday as much colder air arrives.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Overcast, a little freezing drizzle may ice up some roads. Winds: SE 5-10. High: near 30

Tonight: A period of wet snow likely, 1-2" by morning. Low: 25

Friday: Light snow, totals of 2-3" slush possible by Friday afternoon. High: 29

Saturday: Better travel, mostly cloudy and colder with flurries. High: 18

Sunday: Steadier snow (light/powdery). Potential for 1-2" of additional snow. High: 15

Monday: Cold sun returns. High: 7

Tuesday: Numbing start, blue sky - dry sky. Low: -7. High: 8

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, "milder" again. High: 25

Happy to be "average"

Latest Snow Cover. Check out how much more snow is on the ground south of the Twin Cities than in the immediate metro area. The dark blue shaded counties have as much as 10-14" of snow, compared to 8-12" in the immediate Twin Cities area.

Average high in the Twin Cities for Feb. 3: 24 F. Today's predicted high: 25.


We're in-between. The worst of winter (in terms of hours below zero) are behind us. Yet it's way too early to even contemplate spring (although daydreaming about spring break is encouraged. If you've lived in Minnesota longer than 1 winter you know the cold, cruel truth: much of February and March is one step forward, two steps back. Temperatures climb to "average" today, a recognition of the fact that the sun is climbing ever-higher into the southern sky. In fact today the sun is as high in the sky as it was back on November 9, when the high in the Twin Cities was a balmy 61. The reason it's so much colder in early February: all that snow on the ground across Canada and the northern third of the USA. It acts as a "refrigerant", chilling the air from below, keeping us 20-25 degrees colder than we would be otherwise. Until we lose the snow (late March, early April, your guess is as good as mine) the sun's energy will go into melting snow instead of heating up the air, limiting just how mild we can get. That said, the prevailing jet stream winds make a huge difference. Are prevailing winds originating from the Yukon or Vancouver? For at least the next 36-48 hours you'll feel a distinct Pacific influence, coaxing the mercury well into the 20s to near 30 in some Minnesota towns. Hardly spring fever, but a baby-step in the right direction.

Snowfall potential.

Models are still hinting at a coating to 1" of slushy snow (mixed with a little freezing drizzle at times) by Friday. This will be a heavier, wetter snow, nothing like the fluffy, powdery snow that fell on Monday. For a final list of snowfall amounts from Monday's "storm" (the old timers are laughing now) see below. Flurries taper early Saturday before another surge of light snow arrives Sunday and Monday, this time light, fluffy and powdery, as temperatures fall through the teens. That could mean more spin-outs and fender-benders the latter half of the weekend, even though the models are only printing out 1-2" of snow Sunday and Sunday night. The mercury tumbles early next week, at least 3-4 days with highs in the teens, low in single digits to just below zero. The bottom line: this next cold snap won't be as harsh as what we just muddled through, nothing like the first third of January, when we shivered through at least one night of -25 F. air temperature. The good news: we warm up fairly rapidly the latter half of next week, more 20s by Thursday/Friday, even some low 30s by the second weekend of February. Not exactly spring fever, but Old Man Winter shows some definite signs of mellowing in the weeks to come.

1-2" of Minnesota powder next Sunday - Monday? Here's the GFS model output valid Sunday evening at 7 pm, showing expected snowfall from 1 pm to 7 pm - hinting at the heaviest amounts over southern MN, south of the Minnesota River. With temperatures in the teens this should be a light, fluffy, powdery snow - similar to Monday's snowfall. Translation: more ice & snow-covered roads and a greater chance of traffic hassles.

No big storms, no headline-grabbing outbreaks of numbing air, just a nuisance snow Friday, maybe an inch or two of new snow Sunday into Monday morning to cover up the grit and grime. With Monday's fresh coating of white snow conditions are pretty good statewide, and they're about to get a bit better. Not exactly Aspen/Snowmass conditions, but not bad at all for Minnesota.

How to survive an earthquake. Along with hurricanes, this is one of the few natural disasters Minnesotans DO NOT have to worry about! But many of us travel to earthquake-prone regions, like California and the Pacific Rim. Even Seattle and Memphis are vulnerable to potentially devastating quakes. In the unlikely event the earth under your feet ever shakes uncontrollably you may want to know what to do to increase your odds of survival. Time magazine has a great feature story here.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: More clouds than sun, a bit milder. Winds: SE 5-10. High: 25

Tonight: Patchy clouds, not as cold. Low: 15

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, a little light snow/ice possible by Thursday night. High: near 30

Friday: Period of light snow, mixed with freezing drizzle. A light, slushy accumulation possible. High: 29

Saturday: Flurries taper off - improving travel, turning colder. High: near 20

Sunday: Cloudy with more light snow, potential for an inch or 2" by Monday. High: 18

Monday: Light snow tapers, slowly improving travel conditions. High: 15

Tuesday: Some blue sky, chilly. High: 17

Snowfall Totals from Monday's storm (courtesy of NOAA)

INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME

------  -----------------------  --  --------------   -------

5.10   PRESCOTT                 WI  PIERCE           0600 AM

5.00   DURAND                   WI  PEPIN            0700 AM

4.90   HASTINGS                 MN  DAKOTA           0724 AM

4.90   HASTINGS                 MN  DAKOTA           0710 AM

4.50   RED WING                 MN  GOODHUE          0625 AM

4.20   BLOOMINGTON              MN  HENNEPIN         0734 AM

3.70   ST PAUL                  MN  RAMSEY           0750 AM

                         IN HIGHLAND PARK.

3.60   WACONIA                  MN  CARVER           0650 AM

3.60   CHANHASSEN               MN  CARVER           0636 AM

            MEASURED AT THE NWS FORECAST OFFICE.

3.50   LAKEVILLE                MN  DAKOTA           0737 AM

3.50   3 NW PLYMOUTH            MN  HENNEPIN         0701 AM

3.50   ELLSWORTH                WI  PIERCE           0625 AM

3.40   WATERTOWN                MN  CARVER           0958 AM

3.40   DELANO                   MN  WRIGHT           0615 AM

3.30   ST LOUIS PARK            MN  HENNEPIN         0820 AM

3.20   2 W PRIOR LAKE           MN  SCOTT            0625 AM

3.10   DONNELLY                 MN  STEVENS          0658 AM

3.00   WELCOME                  MN  MARTIN           0955 AM

3.00   ST PAUL                  MN  RAMSEY           0800 AM

            UNIVERSITY OF MN ST PAUL CAMPUS

3.00   LAMBERTON                MN  REDWOOD          0700 AM

3.00   3 WSW SHERBURN           MN  MARTIN           0700 AM

3.00   3 SE ALBERT LEA          MN  FREEBORN         0700 AM

3.00   BLUE EARTH               MN  FARIBAULT        0700 AM

3.00   4 N FAIRMONT             MN  MARTIN           0700 AM

3.00   WELLS                    MN  FARIBAULT        0700 AM

3.00   WINNEBAGO                MN  FARIBAULT        0700 AM

3.00   1 SW MONTEVIDEO          MN  CHIPPEWA         0700 AM

3.00   6 SSW LAKEVILLE          MN  SCOTT            0700 AM

3.00   3 SE LAKE ELMO           MN  WASHINGTON       0700 AM

3.00   PRIOR LAKE               MN  SCOTT            0646 AM

2.90   2 N CHASKA               MN  CARVER           0643 AM

2.90   MINNEAPOLIS              MN  HENNEPIN         0625 AM

            MEASURED AT THE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

2.80   HAMMOND                  WI  ST. CROIX        0700 AM

2.80   2 NW MAPLEWOOD           MN  RAMSEY           0700 AM

2.70   ST PAUL                  MN  RAMSEY           0737 AM

            OCCURRED IN COMO PARK.

2.60   WOODBURY                 MN  WASHINGTON       0900 AM

            0.13 WATER EQUIVALENT.

2.50   BROWNTON                 MN  MCLEOD           0900 AM

2.50   COMFREY                  MN  BROWN            0824 AM

2.50   ST PAUL                  MN  RAMSEY           0822 AM

            MEASURED IN SW PORTION OF CITY.

2.50   MENOMONIE                WI  DUNN             0724 AM

2.50   FARIBAULT                MN  RICE             0700 AM

2.50   3 ENE RIVER FALLS        WI  ST. CROIX        0700 AM

2.50   ZUMBROTA                 MN  GOODHUE          0700 AM

2.50   5 NE FOREST LAKE         MN  CHISAGO          0700 AM

2.50   ELLENDALE                MN  STEELE           0650 AM

2.40   1 SSW JORDAN             MN  SCOTT            0700 AM

2.20   1 WSW NEW BRIGHTON       MN  RAMSEY           0846 AM

2.20   1 NNE HUDSON             WI  ST. CROIX        0700 AM

2.20   FRIDLEY                  MN  ANOKA            0658 AM

2.10   2 S LESTER PRAIRIE       MN  MCLEOD           0700 AM

2.00   STILLWATER               MN  WASHINGTON       0822 AM

2.00   CARLOS                   MN  DOUGLAS          0815 AM

2.00   NORTHFIELD               MN  RICE             0710 AM

2.00   REDWOOD FALLS            MN  REDWOOD          0700 AM

2.00   BALDWIN                  WI  ST. CROIX        0700 AM

2.00   LITTLE FALLS             MN  MORRISON         0600 AM

2.00   WINTHROP                 MN  SIBLEY           0500 AM

1.80   CONNORSVILLE             WI  DUNN             0815 AM

1.70   CLAYTON                  WI  POLK             1010 AM

1.70   ST CLOUD                 MN  STEARNS          0625 AM

            MEASURED AT THE MEDIUM SECURITY PRISON.

1.50   EAU CLAIRE               WI  EAU CLAIRE       1112 AM

1.50   STANLEY                  WI  CHIPPEWA         0714 AM

1.50   MORGAN                   MN  REDWOOD          0650 AM

1.50   KIMBALL                  MN  STEARNS          0625 AM

1.30   RUSH CITY                MN  CHISAGO          1215 PM

1.30   EAU CLAIRE               WI  EAU CLAIRE       0536 AM

            MEASURED AT WQOW TV.

Gradual temperature inflation

What exactly was that cold, white, (foreign), crystalline substance falling out of a slate-gray sky on Monday? Old-timers referred to it as s-n-o-w.

I did a little research on the subject, consulted my trusty Merriam-Webster dictionary:

"SNOW"

Pronunciation: \ˈsnō\

Function: noun

Usage: often attributive

Etymology: Middle English, from Old English snāw; akin to Old High German snēo snow, Latin niv-, nix, Greek nipha (accusative)

Date: before 12th century

1 a : precipitation in the form of small white ice crystals formed directly from the water vapor of the air at a temperature of less than 32°F (0°C).

For the record only 3.1" snow fell on the Twin Cities (officially, at MSP International) during the month of January. According to NOAA records that made snowfall in January, 2010 the NINTH LEAST since 1891 for the Twin Cities area. The least January snow ever reported: .6" in 1892 and 1898. It turns out the last few January's have been unusually fickle (and snowless). It was the least January snow since 2.3" fell in January, 2006.




One of the Top 10 Gloomiest Januarys (for Twin Cities snow-lovers). With 3.1" last month add 2010 as #9 to the list of "least snowy Januarys in the Twin Cities." Graphic courtesy of the MN State Climatology Office. For more click on this link.

:            STATION           MAX     MIN     SNOW  SNOW
:             NAME             TEMP    TEMP    FALL  DEPTH
AXN : ALEXANDRIA MN ARPT     :  10  /    2      M      M
STC : ST CLOUD MN ARPT       :  12  /   -1  /  0.9     9
MSP : MINNEAPOLIS MN ARPT    :  16  /    8  /  0.8     8
RWF : REDWOOD FALLS MN ARPT  :  16  /    5  /   M      M
DLH : DULUTH AIRPORT         :  11  /  -11  /  0.0     25
INL : INTERNATIONAL FALLS    :   7  /  -22  /   T      19
HIB : HIBBING ARPT           :  10  /  -14      M      M
GNA : GRAND MARAIS MN        :  20  /    0  /   M      M
RST : ROCHESTER MN ARPT      :  19  /    6  /  1.0     11

Statewide Climate Recap. Data as of 7 pm Monday evening. St. Cloud picked up .9" Monday (as much as fell all of January!). The Twin Cities: .8" with 1" in Rochester. Final amounts may be a bit higher, especially south of the Twin Cities, where the heaviest bands from Monday's clipper set up. Note Duluth: reporting a healthy 25" of snow on the ground. Even Rochester has more snow on the ground than St. Cloud or the Twin Cities. Very odd.

Snapshot of a Clipper. Monday evening's weather map showing a cyclonic swirl of snow. The purple/red dots show IFR conditions, where cloud ceilings and visibilities are lowest (implying heavier amounts of snow). For the latest "surface map" for the Upper Midwest click here.

Encouraging Trends. The models are in close agreement about the impending warming trend through the end of the week - some divergence about the cooling trend early next week, but there's little doubt that a colder front pushes back into Minnesota by Monday.

Next "Nuisance Snow"? The GFS model is hinting at a little light snow Friday and Saturday, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle at times. Amounts should be light, under an inch or so. With afternoon highs in the upper 20s to near 30 most (major) roads may just be wet/slushy by then.

A few (random) weather headlines:

* Next week's cold push won't be as bitter (or enduring) as this latest outbreak - 2 or 3 days of highs in the teens.

* The mercury return to the mid 20s, possibly 30 again by the end of next week.

* I still don't see a major storm (snow, ice or rain) looking out 10-14 days. Beyond that time frame the crystal ball gets very, very murky. Maybe we'll ease into February after all.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Slippery start. Flurries giving way to peeks of sun. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 18

Tonight: Partly cloudy, quite cold. Low: 3

Wednesday: Becoming mostly cloudy - decent travel conditions. High: 21

Thursday: Overcast, a bit milder. High: 27

Friday: A period of light snow, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle. High: near 30

Saturday: Light snow/flurries, potential for a slushy coating to 1" High: 28

Sunday: Better travel day. More clouds than sun. High: 25

Monday: Windy, turning colder with more sunshine. High: near 20, falling into the teens.

1-2" of Minnesota Powder

Update. Monday, 1 pm. Light snow continues to fall from a weak clipper-like system racing across Minnesota. I still think we're on track to pick up 1-2" of light, fluffy, powdery snow by the evening hours. As expected the PM rush is going to be a bit of a mess, perhaps double the normal commute times (the salt/sand mix used by MnDOT doesn't work nearly as well when temperatures are in the teens). Give yourself extra time to get around town today. Less than 1" is likely to our north, from Little Falls to the Lake Mille Lacs area, to the far northern suburbs of the Twin Cities. Some 2-4" amounts are possible from Willmar to the southern 'burbs of the Twin Cities, but most of us should wind up with 1-2" of new fluff. Hardly a snowy catastrophe, but the timing couldn't have been much worse.

Yesterday I did a little recreational dog-sledding on a frozen lake nearby. Ice-fishing, snowmobiles, ATV's, a little chili and cheese out on the tundra - celebrating the 1st Annual WeatherNation Winter Bash. Some of our on-air meteorologists are from Florida, and they had this deer-in-the-headlights expression, slipping & sliding around on over 2 feet of solid ice, loving every slippery moment. This is the secret to not only surviving, but ENJOYING a Minnesota winter. Shake off the initial urge to hibernate, curl up in the fetal position until the mercury strikes 50 - go out and grab Old Man Winter by the collar and shake him around a little. Nothing better to chase away the midwinter blues and lift yourself out of an arctic funk that playing in the snow - it brings out the 10-year old in all of us. Don't get me wrong, I'm looking forward to the day when I can step outside without looking like the Michelin Man, wrapped in multiple layers of cotton and wool. That day is approaching faster than you might think. 20s are likely later this week, possibly some low 30s by the weekend. With the warming trend will come a growing chance of wintry precipitation, as early as this afternoon and evening, when we get grazed by an Alberta Clipper capable of a quick inch or two of ill-timed snow. Yes, you should get off to work, school or the store this morning with very few weather-induced headaches, but the PM commute may be a longer ordeal, a parade of brake-lights barely visible through waves of light to moderate snow.



No, we probably won't see this much snow later today. It should be considerably less, more like 1", more south of town, less to the north. That's more than fell during all of January, btw.



A thoroughly forgettable January. What a strange month: -15 F (air temperature!) the morning of Jan. 2, 11 nights below zero, and then a welcome mid-month thaw (7 days above freezing from the 16th to the 23rd) and a very significant RAIN event on the 23rd, followed by a numbing end to the month. The upshot: the entire (wacky) month averaged close to normal, at least as of Jan. 30 - and we only saw a pitiful 3.1" of snow during what is - historically - the snowiest month of the year. By comparison Washington D.C. picked up 7.4" of snow in January, Memphis, Tennessee saw 1.4", St. Cloud saw a paltry .9". Let me get this straight: Memphis saw more January snow than St. Cloud? Strange but true...

When it's this cold it doesn't take much upward motion throughout the atmosphere for a quick, inconvenient inch of Minnesota powder. As if often the case, it's not just the amount of snow - it's the timing. The salt/sand mix put down on our highways by MnDOT works much better at 25-30 F than it does with temperatures in the teens, so expect some very slippery spots out there. The obvious problem: even a little snow will cover up the 1/2 to 1" of ice lurking out there. Leave extra time to get home, the combination of 1-2" of snow (more south, less north) + temperatures in the mid teens + extra rush hour traffic = a possible 4 on the dreaded Hassle Factor (which goes from 1 to 5, with 1 being smooth sailing and 5 equating to a parking lot with all the engines running). You've been warned.

Another fickle clipper. I hate these meteorological concoctions - they are notoriously fickle, even harder to predict with any precision than (wetter/warmer) storms approaching from Texas or Missouri. A slight zig or zag to the storm track, even 50 miles, can make the difference between flurries - and 5" of flurries. But the trends seem undeniable: more snow south/west of the Minnesota River - far less snow north of St. Cloud and the Twin Cities. The farther south/west you drive today - away from town - the heavier the snow and worse the PM travel conditions. Right now I'm thinking about 1/2 to 1 1/2" from St. Cloud - down Interstate 94 - to the Twin Cities.

A warm oasis. You don't see this very often. The 6-10 Day Extended Outlook from CPC, the Climate Prediction Center, is predicting warmer than normal temperatures for the Upper Midwest, temperatures trending cooler over just about the entire rest of America. Thank you El Nino! For more climate information as far out as 90 days into the future click here.

Light snow tapers off a bit on Tuesday - travel conditions improve by Wednesday and Thursday before the next wave of moisture surges northward from the Gulf of Mexico late in the week. The models are still a bit contradictory and nebulous, but I could easily see a couple inches of additional snow from Friday into Saturday - the lowest mile of the atmosphere < style="font-weight: bold;">

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Mostly cloudy, best chance of light snow afternoon/evening hours, from 1/2 to 1 1/2" possible. Far south metro may pick up 1-3" of snow by tonight. Roads will be slippery later today. Winds: East 5-10. High: 12

Tonight: Light snow tapers to flurries - icy roads. Low: 3

Tuesday: Lingering clouds and flurries, another dusting/coating. High: 15

Wednesday: More clouds than sun, a bit milder. High: 23

Thursday: Patchy clouds, relatively good travel conditions. High: 24

Friday: Another period of light snow, around 1" possible. High: 26

Saturday: More light snow/flurries, an inch or two can't be ruled out. High: 28

Sunday: Flurries taper, better travel weather. High: near 30

Monday: Turning windy/colder with passing flurries. High: 28 (falling through the 20s).