A taste of March in January

The rumors are true: the weather honeymoon is drawing to a close; Minnesota's weather will become stormier, travel more problematic as the week goes on. As is often the case, Mother Nature is about to throw us a curve. In spite of the St. Paul Winter Carnival kicking off the 10 coldest days of the year (on average) an unusually strong storm - tracking unusually far south and west of Minnesota - will pull enough warm air north for a period of rain and freezing rain (rain freezing into glaze ice on contact with cold surfaces) by Friday night and Saturday. Snow lovers are indignant, as well they should be: if this were a typical January with highs in the teens (north) and low 20s (south) we'd be looking at 12-16"+ of snow by Monday of next week. So close, and yet so far.


Icy possibilities. What month is this again? The maps look more like early March than mid January. An inch or two of slush is possible tomorrow, but the main event arrives this weekend, the atmosphere aloft just mild enough for snowflakes to melt into raindrops, potentially freezing on contact with cold surface. The best chance of icy headaches? Saturday morning (early). Again: Saturday night.


Potential for a "plowable snow"? The GFS model is still hinting at 3-6" of snow Sunday into Monday, but precipitation Saturday should fall as a mix of snow, sleet, even some freezing rain (glaze ice) across central Minnesota. I still believe St. Cloud will pick up more snow than the Twin Cities, where more precipitation will fall as rain/freezing rain. Stay tuned for snowfall updates, but right now I'm leaning toward 3-5" for the St. Cloud area Saturday night into Monday morning. (For the record: I don' think the Twin Cities will see 6" of snow from this system, too much rain wrapping into the storm - I'm thinking more like 2-4" for Minneapolis & St. Paul by Monday).



Strange trends for the coldest week of winter. Check out the predicted temperature trend (top chart) showing temperatures at, even above freezing into the weekend. The bottom chart shows predicted snowfall amounts, spiking upward by Sunday/Monday as colder air filters back into the storm's circulation. In short: expect a king-size MESS this weekend!

Tuesday afternoon tornado warnings were issued for south central Los Angeles. No typo there - that's how violent and energetic the latest Pacific storm is, sweeping inland with torrential rains, hail and high water. One wrinkle of moisture and energy ejecting northeastward from the Four Corners region of the Desert Southwest will spark a little snow/sleet mix Wednesday night into Thursday, models still hinting at 1/2 to 2" of slushy/icy snow across much of Minnesota tomorrow. Give yourself some extra time to get around town, I expect commute times to be double, even triple normal, air temperatures holding in the mid/upper 20s, meaning potentially snow-covered secondary roads, let's hope treated major highways/freeways are mostly wet and slushy. Friday should be a better travel day, in-between storm systems, as we wait for the Main Event.

Guess the storm track! The heaviest snow is almost always 100-300 miles north/west of the actual storm track. Parts of the Dakotas may pick up 8-12"+ snow from the weekend storm, but a jog to the northwest may pull enough mild air northward for a changeover to sleet/rain/ice on Saturday, keeping amounts down, especially south/east of St. Cloud.

Anatomy of a slop-storm. By Saturday evening at 6 pm the storm is forecast to be stuck over southeastern South Dakota, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico pin-wheeling into Minnesota. This projected track would be far enough south/west of us for warm air to wrap completely around the storm circulation, triggering a mixed-bag of snow, ice, even a few hours of rain Saturday. Most of the accumulating snow should come Sunday into Monday morning, as the storm pushes east, toward the Great Lakes, and the entire column of the atmosphere begins to cool down.

The storm now slamming into California with gale force winds, mudslides and raging fits of thunder and lightning will cross the Rockies, gulping down vast quantities of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico late in the week, before turning almost due north over the weekend, pushing a shield of "precipitation" into Minnesota Friday night and Saturday. Notice I said precipitation, a wonderfully vague word, which could mean almost anything under the sun, except for the sun. To get all snow temperatures (usually) have to be colder than 32 throughout the lowest mile or so of the atmosphere. Even a thin layer of air > 32 F. can turn falling snowflakes into rain, dashing the hopes and expectations of snow-lovers stuck on the ground far below. A perfect storm track for snow runs from Kansas City and Des Moines to near La Crosse and Eau Claire, keeping Minnesota on the colder, northern side of the storm track. But this area of low pressure shows signs of "hooking" to the northwest, pushing into South Dakota (!) That, in turn, will probably yank enough mild air north for a significant period of sleet (ice pellets), changing to freezing rain (glaze ice) then finally over to plain-old-liquid-rain during the day Saturday, turning our snow to slush and mush (as I feared more than a week ago). As the storm does a big loop and finally tracks due east, then northeast across Wisconsin, toward the Great Lakes, a changeover back to mostly-snow is likely Sunday, finally tapering Monday. By then there may be 1-3" of new snow on the ground for southeastern MN, but a band of 3-6" is still very possible across central Minnesota (including St. Cloud), probably less near the Twin Cities - more like 2-3" - possibly 4" far northern and western suburbs.


The St. Paul (Messy) Carnival. Look at the bright side: no 40s or 50s this year. St. Paul may pick up an inch of sloppy snow Thursday, but rain may put a temporary damper on the fun Saturday, what may be the messiest day of the 10 day adventure. Temperatures cool back down into the 20s most of next week; the snow & ice sculptures should be in better shape by then.

We've been living on borrowed time in the temperature department, readings a good 10-15 degrees above average. The GFS model is now (strongly) suggesting a return to much colder weather next week (teens north, 20s south); an even colder push for the first few days of February, some single digits highs up north, maybe a week's worth of subzero lows for much of the state. I don't think it'll be as brutal as early January, but it will definitely get your attention. Our midwinter intermission was nice while it lasted, a welcome, nearly 2 week reprieve from the coldest, most controversial winds of winter. Old Man Winter got a "time out", but nights are (still) long, there's still a lot of snow lurking to our north - at some point the laws of physics kick in and the Yukon Express starts to roll once more. Give it about a week to 10 days, there will be no doubt in your mind that spring is NOT right around the corner.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Mostly cloudy - hanging onto good travel conditions. Winds: E 10-15. High: 27

Tonight: Chance of a little light snow, freezing drizzle. Low: 22

Thursday: Light snow, mixed with freezing drizzle at times, a slushy, slippery, icy inch possible. High: 28

Friday: Temporarily improving conditions - overcast, damp and gray. High: 30

Saturday: Wintry mix changes to mostly rain - very slippery/icy outside of town. High: 34

Sunday: Changeover back to mostly snow, starts to accumulate. Potential for 2-4" or more of snow by Sunday night. High: 31

Monday: Light snow quickly tapers to flurries, slowly improving travel conditions, turning colder. High: 20

Tuesday: Partly sunny and chilly, a few degrees cooler than average. High: 18

Wednesday: Yep, feels like a real January again. Intervals of sun, delightfully numb. High: 15

January fluke: ice & rain

What could be more unlikely than the Vikes going to the Superbowl? How 'bout a cold rain during what is (on average) the coldest week of winter. Unusual, rare, but hardly unprecedented. Unusually strong storms roaring out of the Gulf of Mexico are often accompanied by not only copious moisture, but a surge of warm air capable of turning snow over to ice, even rain. Granted, this is far more typical in mid March than mid January, but we've all come to expect the unexpected in this neck of the woods, right? Nobody ever said this would be boring...

Forecast for Sunday in New Orleans: a jubilant sea of purple & gold, thunderous cheers, lightning-fast sacks, slippery (Saints) turnovers, high probability of a very quiet local crowd in the fourth quarter, significant risk of a rout. Degree of confidence: moderate to high. (check out the eye on that beast! Hurricane Brett is coming ashore. Time to warn the local residents).



We salvage one more dry, storm-free, blue-sky day, enough sun dribbling through for highs well up into the 20s, a good 5-10 degrees warmer than average. A weak bubble of high pressure hangs on long enough to ensure a dry commute into work or school Wednesday morning, but clouds quickly stream in tomorrow, the atmosphere capable of a light mix of wet snow, sleet, and freezing rain Wednesday night into Thursday. This will just be the first shot, the atmospheric appetizer, but roads may become slushy and slippery Thursday, highs holding a few degrees below freezing. My hunch: freeways and major state highways (treated) will probably be mostly-wet, but the side-streets may become glazed with ice.

Potential for Thursday icing. Ice potential forecast valid midnight Wednesday night. Many of the ingredients are coming together for significant freezing rain and sleet (ice pellets) Thursday morning as the first wave of moisture/energy pushes northeastward across the Plains. The only saving grace: temperatures will be in the upper 20s, so freeways and major state highways (that are treated by MnDOT) may be mostly-wet. But secondary roads could - in theory - be coated with glaze ice.

We catch a brief break on Friday, in-between storms, but it still looks like the main event, the most significant slug of moisture, arrives next weekend. Computer models have been printing out some very impressive, 1.5 to 2" liquid amounts by Monday. Were that all snow it would pile up to about 15-20" of the white stuff. The trouble is: it won't be all snow. Our weekend storm will be vigorous enough to pull unusually mild air northward, warming up the lowest mile to 8,000 feet of the atmosphere, able to turn falling snow into rain, possibly rain freezing on contact with cold surfaces for a time (freezing rain). The bulk of the precipitation may fall as rain Saturday and Saturday night, but as the storm tracks toward Wisconsin into the Great Lakes the airmass overhead will cool off, turning rain over to (mostly) snow on Sunday. Throwing around inch-amounts more than 48 hours before the storm would be reckless and highly premature, but it still looks like a potential for a "plowable" snowfall for much of Minnesota Sunday into Monday morning.

No more arctic air in sight - yet. The most bitter, subzero air has shifted north of the Arctic Circle (these temperatures in Celsius). Steering winds blowing predominately from the Pacific (and from the Gulf of Mexico this weekend) will keep temperatures above average through the end of the month. The 15-day GFS model keeps daytime highs in the 20s and 30s through the first few days of February.

An Olympic-size mess. For much of the last 1-2 weeks daytime highs have been in the 40s and 50s in Vancouver, British Columbia, site of the upcoming Winter Olympics. To make matter worse, unusually mild weather on the slopes has been accompanied by frequent rains, accelerating snow melt. Just when you thought things couldn't get any worse for NBC. Nothing But Controversy. The forecast for this week doesn't look promising, highs mostly in the 40s to near 50 (temperatures below are in Celsius).

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Partly sunny, still dry. Winds: SE 5-10. High: 29

Tonight: Patchy clouds, chilly. Low: 14

Wednesday: Sunny start, clouds increase during the day. High: 28

Wednesday night: Light snow, mixing with freezing rain (ice). Slippery in time for AM Rush on Thursday. Low: 19

Thursday: Period of mixed wintry precipitation, wet snow, ice and rain. Slushy accumulation possible, especially outside the metro area. Freeways: mostly wet, very icy across greater MN. High: near 30

Friday: Overcast - better travel. High: 31

Saturday: Sleet and freezing rain, capable of icing early. Mostly rain by midday/afternoon. Roads may be very slippery far northern/western suburbs, especially early. High: 32

Sunday: Changeover back to mostly snow, potential for a couple inches, possibly enough to plow/shovel by Sunday night. High: 31

Monday: Light snow slowly tapers off to flurries, little additional accumulation by afternoon. High: 28

Prediction: Vikings euphoria (and a messy mix)

Weather Headlines

* Significant icing possible by midweek, highs in the 20s could mean very slippery secondary roads, while treated freeways, major highways stay mostly-wet.

* Potential for a rain-event Saturday into Sunday morning, possibly glaze ice for the northwestern half of the state.

* Changeover from rain/ice to mostly snow by Sunday PM, potential for a couple inches late Sunday into Monday.

* Outlook for Sunday in New Orleans: morning puddles/rain giving way to some sun, highs frmo 65-70 F.

Be honest: did you even notice the weather Sunday? I vaguely recall a little sunshine and blue sky filtering through, the sound of dripping icicles and gurgling drain-spouts. The National Weather Service insists the high on Sunday was 34 in the Twin Cities (a respectable 13 degrees above average). The NWS reported 51 in St. Cloud yesterday, which is an order of magnitude milder than anywhere else in the state. All I can think is a). milder air aloft was able to mix down to the surface, or b). the official airport thermometer received direct sunlight - which seems rather odd. Check out Sunday's official STC hourly observations (below) for a real meteorological head-scratcher. With sunshine, light winds, and an airmass of Pacific origin drifting overhead the mercury climbed above freezing statewide, with the exception of Rochester, where 14" of snow on the ground prevented temperatures from climbing any higher than 28 F. Even Grand Marais registered an impressive (for mid January) high of 41, nearly 25 degrees above average!

It never rains in southern California. It pours. A Doppler radar mosaic Sunday night showed a powerful storm hitting near L.A., where flooding rains and isolated mudslides are possible this week, at least 5 separate storm impulses hitting the west coast between now and Friday. These storms will weaken slightly after moving inland, but then re-intensify over the southern Plains, tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico before turning north, spreading a mix of wet snow, ice and rain into Minnesota as early as Wednesday-Thursday. The latest (high-res) national Doppler mosaic is here.

Potential for a very sloppy/icy week. The GFS models are consistent in predicting over 1" of liquid precipitation later this week. Much of that moisture may fall as rain or freezing rain, rain freezing (instantly) on surfaces colder than 32 F. With daytime highs stuck in the mid/upper 20s there is a potential for significant ice on highways & sidewalks the later half of the week, especially outside of the Twin Cities.

What the heck was going on in St. Cloud yesterday? Check out the temperature at 11:53 am Sunday. The official print-out said 47, with a high (in-between hours) of 51. Or was it 60. Impossible, right? This is a real head-scratcher. To get a blow-by-blow, hour-by-hour print-out of weather in the Twin Cities for the last 24 hours click here.

With rare 100% accuracy I can predict a severe & widespread outbreak of Vikings-mania this week. Weather will be something of an afterthought (as it should be). The big weather story: the atmosphere will probably be warm enough for mostly-rain later this week, in fact computer models are hinting at nearly 1" of liquid precipitation by Sunday, much of that falling as rain. The models are suggesting a few inches of wet, slushy snow for parts of central and northern Minnesota, but the bulk of the moisture (Thursday, another wave coming in next weekend) may be wet vs. white. Odd for mid January in Minnesota, but certainly not unprecedented. Here in Minnesota we've all come to expect the unexpected, the meteorological exception becomes the norm. Translation: weather at this latitude can be extraordinary, unusual, at times bizarre and downright freaky. Think about it: in just the last few months we've seen heavy, wet snow in mid October, 50s and 60s in November, an early outbreak of subzero weather, and now this: potentially significant rain falling during what his (historically) the coldest week of the entire year! What will this mean for the St. Paul Winter Carnival, which kicks off later this week? Not sure, but it's safe to say weather conditions will not be ideal for snow & ice preservation. Rain, coupled with highs in the low/mid 30s could mean rapid snow-melt by the weekend. I hope I'm wrong about this; but I have a pretty strong feeling we're going to experience a taste of mid March in mid January. Great.

There is a potential for significant icing Wednesday and Thursday, surface temperatures in the teens/twenties, while 3,000 to 5,000 feet above the ground temperatures are above freezing. The result may be sleet (ice pellets) and even a significant period of freezing rain (liquid rain freezing into glaze ice on contact with cold surfaces, powerlines, roads and sidewalks). The timing is tricky, I don't expect any huge headaches today or Tuesday, but by Wednesday a long fetch of moisture direct from the Gulf of Mexico may spark freezing drizzle/rain, with some icing expected Wednesday and Thursday (mixed with wet snow, especially north of St. Cloud and Lake Mille Lacs, where a couple inches of slush may accumulate). Models are still hinting at a brief break in the action Friday into early Saturday, before the next sloppy, southern storm pushes a shield of moisture back into Minnesota late Saturday into Monday. Once again the atmosphere may be (just) warm enough for rain, or freezing rain, much of Saturday into Sunday morning, followed by a gradual changeover to wet snow (from west to east) on Sunday. A few inches of snow may still pile up at the tail-end of the storm Sunday PM into Monday, but at this point that's just hand-waving speculation (as my favorite college professor used to say). He was not fond of "hand-waving arguments."

Photo courtesy of the Star Tribune.

The vacation from snow/ice was nice while it lasted. Prepare for a more challenging week on Minnesota's highways. But the Vikes are going to the NFC Championship. Forgive me for saying this (out loud) but I'm not alone in believing that this is our year. The planets have aligned. I hope to have the opportunity of updating you on Miami weather in the weeks ahead. Wouldn't that be something.



Monthly climate update for the Twin Cities. Looking for a convenient web site to track Twin Cities weather, day by day? Click here to use the National Weather Service's handy climate site. Click on "Minneapolis" and "daily data for a month", then "go" to see the latest.


Risk of a mixed-bag of wintry weather. The latest GFS model is hinting at mostly rain south of I-94, but temperatures aloft may be just cold enough for a couple inches of wet, heavy, slushy snow north/east of St. Cloud and Mille Lacs by Wednesday and Thursday. I'm more concerned about the potential for a significant icing event across central and portions of southern Minnesota, with surface temperatures ranging from 20-25, and rain freezing (instantly) on cold surfaces. Stay tuned.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Partly sunny, cooler than yesterday. Winds: W 3-8. High: near 30

Tonight: Patchy clouds, colder again. Low: 14

Tuesday: A mix of clouds and sun, still dry. High: 28

Wednesday: Cloudy with a chance of freezing rain (ice), possibly mixed with wet snow north of the metro area. High: 27

Thursday: Freezing rain and drizzle possible, significant icing possible outside the downtowns. High: 28

Friday: Mostly cloudy - better travel conditions. High: 29

Saturday: Overcast with a cold rain, freezing on contact with many surfaces - potential for significant ice, especially north/west of the Twin Cities. High: 32

Sunday: Rain/ice changes over to wet snow, potential for a couple inches of slush. High: 30

Monday (Jan. 25). Light snow gradually tapers to flurries. High: 29

January Slush, Mush & Rain?

Special Prediction: Between noon and 3 pm today the lights may dim. Timid neighbors will break speed limits getting home from church. Streets will be desolate - deserted by 12:01 pm. Store owners will play Solitaire on their PC's. Rumor has it there's a big football game on Fox. Fingers crossed.

Weather Headlines

* January Thaw lingers today, highs close to freezing statewide.

* Cooler Monday through Wednesday with plenty of sun, good travel conditions.

* Icy mix possible Thursday, just nuisance amounts expected.

* Heavier rain/ice by next weekend. Computers hinting at mostly rain next Saturday, ending as a few inches of snow next Sunday - Monday.


Warm enough for rain next weekend? This is a Bufkit image, a meteorological tool, which (strangely) reads from right to left. If you click on the image and bring it full screen you can see the days of the week at the bottom. This is a predicted cross-section, a slice of the atmosphere, showing significant moisture arriving by the weekend on powerful southerly winds at all levels of the atmosphere. I've circled the 0-line (Celsius), with is 32 F. If you look carefully you can see 32+ temperatures more than 7,000 feet above the ground, hinting at a significant rain event late Friday into much of Saturday. I know, not good news for snow lovers hoping to hang on to the 10" of snow currently on the ground.

Yes, this is real progress. A year ago Friday the high was a crisp -6, after waking up to a hair-freezing low of -30. Yesterday's high of 31 (above) was 13 degrees above average for mid January here on the tundra, and with the sun out it felt like a relative bargain. International Falls soared to 43, shattering the old record of 38 set in 1919.

Predicted temperatures aloft for next Saturday at 1 pm. Temperatures throughout the lowest 5,000 - 7,000 feet of the atmosphere are predicted to be warmer than 32 F, warm enough for rain. This "Skew T" analysis tool suggests a cool-down a week from today; I still wouldn't be surprised to see a "plowable" amount of snow at the tail-end of the storm Sunday PM into Monday, Jan. 24.

A cooler front pushes across the state today, yesterday's mild southwest breeze switching around to the northwest with patchy clouds, a few flurries north. Even so, enough mild air may mix down from a few thousand feet above the ground for a shot at freezing. It looks like a good day for Vikings victory (plan on intervals of sun, slushy roads and temperatures near 30 around noon if you're lucky enough to be holding tickets for the big game). A weak shot of Canadian air follows the frontal passage, highs confined to the 20s for the first half of the new week - but blue sky draped overhead will help. Hey, we're heading into what is (historically) the coldest 2 weeks of the entire year. That's why the forecast of RAIN by the weekend is so odd to me. That's right: R-A-I-N. In fact the GFS model prints out nearly 1" of rain late Friday and Saturday, gradually changing over to wet snow Sunday as temperatures aloft begin to chill down again - maybe a few inches of snow at the tail-end of this next big storm.

Outlook for a week from today. The models are fairly consistent bringing a very wet, southern storm due north late in the week, pulling enough warm air into its circulation for a period of rain late Friday into Saturday, probably changing over to wet snow during the day Sunday. The exact timing is very much up in the air, but heavy rain is possible next Saturday, ending (possibly) as a few inches of snow next Sunday and Monday. Stay tuned....

Rain in mid January is no more a sign of climate change than a string of subzero nights earlier this month disproves the theory that man is (inadvertently, accidentally) impacting our climate. These are examples of WEATHER, not climate. Weather: CNN Headline News (without Nancy Grace, please). Climate is the History Channel. Enough of that, but it is a little strange that the 2010 St. Paul Winter Carnival may kick off with moderate rain and highs in the low to mid 30s. Stating the obvious (which I've become damn good at) our 10" of snow currently on the ground is going to get very slushy, mushy, sloppy and soft. If you want "good" snow try to head out today, or the first half of this week.

The Sportsman's Show is going on - next week it's the Boat Show, sure signs that we will (eventually) enjoy a well-deserved spring here in Minnesota. I just checked out the latest GFS extended 15 day computer outlook - it keeps us in the 20s and 30s through the first day of February. No arctic spankings for the next 2 weeks (but we are undoubtedly moving into a stormier, wetter, weather pattern).

I can't prove this scientifically - I haven't seen a research paper or journal article, but based on anecdotal evidence (just following the weather patterns for nearly 3 decades) it seems that we're seeing less arctic air overall, fewer hours below zero. But the arctic punches that do come screaming south of the border seem to be briefer, and more intense, more fleeting. It may be my imagination, but I don't think so. During the decade from 2000 to 2009 the number of nights with 40 below F. nighttime lows from International Falls to the BWCA was a quarter of what it was in the 1970s, when the winters seemed to be harsher, hanging on even longer. Now we seem to get 2 or 3 brief, concentrated smacks of subzero, but the sheer duration of debilitating cold isn't as bad as it was a generation ago. We'll see if it's a fluke, a blip, an aberration, or a true trend.

So there you go - we hang onto a precious January Thaw today, a few degrees cooler Monday through Wednesday, but skies (and roads) should remain dry. A little mixed precipitation may streak into Minnesota from the south as early as Thursday, but the main event (which will first wreak havoc across southern California, sparking flooding rains, mudslides and rare snow within sight of the Hollywood sign in L.A.) arrives next weekend. The majority of precipitation may fall as rain, but Sunday could get increasingly snowy, sloppy and slippery on area highways, some problems lingering into next Monday.

In the meantime say a prayer for the Haitian people, and stock up on heart-healthy food to last you from roughly noon through 3:30 pm. Rumor has it there's a football game on. We'll see if it really is our manifest destiny this year. The short-term forecast calls for a massive front of purple and gold!



Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: More clouds than sun, a few passing flurries possible. Winds: NW 5-10. High: 34

Tonight: Patchy clouds. Low: 19

Monday: Partly sunny, few degrees cooler (still well above average). High: 31

Tuesday: More sun, a bit chillier. High: 28

Wednesday: Clouds increase. High: 27

Thursday: A light mix of wet snow, ice, rain possible - potentially slushy. High: 29

Friday: Overcast, a cold rain possible late, possibly freezing on some surfaces. High: 31

Saturday: Rain and freezing rain, possibly heavy. Significant icing possible. High: 33

Sunday: A changeover back to mostly snow. High: 32

Monday (Jan. 25): Snow begins to taper, potential for a couple inches. High: 28

Mourning Haiti's Loss

"Sometimes, the earth is cruel.

That is ultimately the fundamental lesson here, as children wail, families sleep out of doors, and the dead lie unclaimed in the rubble that once was Port-au-Prince.

Sometimes the rains fall and will not stop. Sometimes the skies turn barren and will not rain. Sometimes the seas rise and smack the shoreline like a fist. Sometimes the wind bullies the land. And sometimes, the land rattles and heaves and splits itself in two.

Sometimes, the earth is cruel.

And always, when it is, we do the same thing. We dig ourselves out. We weep and mourn, we recover and memorialize the dead, we rebuild our homes. And we go on. This is the price of being human. And also,

arguably, the noblest expression.

Sometimes, the earth is cruel, and you have no choice but to accept that as part of the bargain called life. And when it is your turn to deal with it, you do.

But what if it's always your turn?"

A reporter by the name of Leonard Pitts, at the Miami Herald newspaper, wrote this in yesterday's edition - his powerful story is here. Heart-wrenching and horrifying, the news coming out of Haiti seems otherworldly - how can this be happening in the 21st century? I like to believe I'm up on science, but I have to admit to being totally ignorant of the earthquake threat for parts of the Caribbean, who knew a 7.0 earthquake on the Richter Scale was even possible? Our hearts go out to the victims and the survivors and their families. Consider making a donation to the Red Cross. Click here to see more information on how you can help. It's one of the few things I did on Friday that made me feel good. I hope you'll help out - the need down there is overwhelming.

I don't need continuous weather-drama in my life to be a happy meteorologist. It's true that a big, impending storm makes us feel a little more important, but I'm happy to be bored in mid January, relieved that Old Man Winter is cutting us a 7-10 day break. I still believe the absolute WORST OF WINTER is in our rear view mirror. The nasty, barricade-inside-your-family-room, don't-want-to-climb-out-of-bed COLD is probably behind us. We'll see 10-20 more subzero nights, fairly confident about that. But the potential for sustained, sub-freezing and sub-zero weather will drop off in February - I'm going out on a limb here, hope I'm right. We'll see. Soak up the peace and quiet, the utter lack of windchill-babble on the TV & radio, the (vaguely eerie) lack of watches, warnings and advisories, the dire lack of "breaking weather-news" - because the atmosphere is about to shift gears again. My hunch is that the last 7-10 days of January will be much more active, much stormier, with enough warm, moist air bubbling northward from the Gulf of Mexico for a conglomeration of rain, ice and snow.

Dry, storm-free weather lingers through Tuesday, temperatures well above average (today may be the mildest day, enough mild air mixing down from 3,000 to 5,000 feet - where temperatures have been in the 40s and 50s - to pull the mercury above freezing). A few optimistic bank thermometers may register mid to upper 30s today & Sunday, not bad considering we still have a cool 10" of snow on the ground. The National Weather Service has a great description of the cooling effect of snow cover (see below). Recently the coolest temperatures have been over southwestern Minnesota, still buried under 20-30" of snow. It's actually been considerably milder across northern Minnesota, where (ironically) there is less snow on the ground, anywhere from 4-10". The exception: 12-25" along Lake Superior's North Shore, enhanced/spiked by lake effect snows. The inversion overhead has been persistent, trapping clouds, fog (ice fog), even flurries and a little spotty freezing drizzle). The sun is still too weak, too low in the sky, to break through that inversion and mix mild air down to the surface - that's why temperatures in recent days have been a few degrees cooler than we thought they'd be. No excuses: inversions are tough to predict, especially when they'll break.

Latest Snow Cover. The most snow: southwestern Minnesota, where many towns still have 20-30" on the ground. With the exception of the North Shore and Arrowhead snowfall amounts actually decrease the farther north you travel across Minnesota. Sort of an upside-down map. For more details click here.

Our weather menu gets a lot more interesting next week. Within 48-72 hours you'll be hearing about major storms slamming into California, capable of flooding rains, mudslides, even heavy, wet snow falling on the higher terrain just outside San Francisco and Los Angeles. These powerful Pacific storms will track well south, pushing heavy rain and high winds into northern Mexico (!) before turning northeastward across the Plains. The first weak impulse of moisture and energy may spark a period of drizzle/freezing drizzle by the middle of next week - the lowest mile of the atmosphere probably mild enough for a little rain, rain which may freeze on contact with cold surfaces, trees, powerlines, maybe even some secondary roads. With highs well up in the 20s to near 30 I expect most freeways and state highways to just be wet/slushy, but side streets could (in theory) be a mess by next Wednesday and Thursday.

A little Weekend Excitement? The GFS computer has been very consistent run after run, bringing a major storm northward across the Plains, pushing rain/ice into Minnesota late next Saturday/Saturday night (Jan. 23) followed by a changeover to potentially heavy wet snow Sunday (Jan. 24) with light snow possibly lingering into Monday, the 25th. It's still much too early to even issue a WAG estimate on amounts - but this could certainly be "plowable." Yes, the last week of January looks VERY STORMY!

Weather models are still hinting at a much more significant storm pushing northward the weekend of January 23-24. It's still too far out to try to get specific, but this second storm looks more impressive, laden with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico - I could envision a mix of snow/ice/rain next Sunday changing over to heavy wet snow late Sunday (Jan. 24) into Monday (Jan. 25).

Who Knew? Earthquakes in Oklahoma? Yesterday a 3.8 quake rattled Oklahoma City. I don't know about you, but I'm feeling a little better about our arctic fronts, more grateful than ever that there are no active faults running under Minnesota. The USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) has an impressive web site with up-to-date earthquake information here.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Patchy clouds/ice fog possible early, then partly sunny and unseasonably mild. Winds: SW 5-10. High: 32

Tonight: More clouds, more patchy fog. Low: 21

Sunday: Mix of clouds and sun, feel more like late February. Perfect weather for a Vikings victory. High: 34

Monday: Plenty of blue sky, a few degrees cooler. High: 31

Tuesday: Some sun, still quiet, storm-free. High: 28

Wednesday: Cloudy, chance of drizzle or freezing drizzle. High: 29

Thursday: Gray, damp with a little drizzle possible. High: near 30

Friday: Brief break, intervals of sun. High: 31

Saturday (Jan. 23): Gray, period of rain/ice possible late. High: 34

Sunday (Jan 24): Mixed precipitation changing over to snow, potentially heavy at times. High: 31

Winter on hold

How dry we are. Most of central and southern Minnesota hasn't seen any measurable precipitation since January 1, the exception far southwestern and southeastern counties, a coating to 1 inch for the Minnesota Arrowhead. Next week appears stormier and wetter statewide. To analyze Minnesota precipitation trends for yourself click here.

* St. Cloud breaks through the 30 degree mark, for the first time since Dec. 26, when the high was 36.


* Twin Cities temperatures running 8.6 degrees F below average so far for January, 2010.


* 2.2" of snow for the Twin Cities so far the first half of January (we should have picked up closer to 5" since Jan. 1).


* Nagging inversion (unusually warm air aloft) traps stratus clouds and rare January smog near the ground - air pollution advisory posted for portions of central/southern Minnesota for stagnant, polluted air.


* "No weather" through Tuesday of next week, unusually quiet, storm-free - nothing more than a little ice fog and a few flurries from time to time.


* Potential for an icing event by the middle of next week, maybe a significant snowfall the weekend of Jan. 23-24 (right now Sunday appears to be the snowier day).


* Pattern ripe for VERY significant snow amounts the last week of January. It may be a very snow Winter Carnival 2010. I could see some 1-2 foot amounts for parts of Minnesota during the last 7-9 days of January and the first few days of February. It looks ripe for a snowy DUMPING!


* Coldest start to January for La Crosse, WI since 1979. Temperatures the first 5 days of January average 1.5 F!


Good news on the weather front: you won't have to worry about any epic storms, at least through the first few days off next week. This is about as quiet (read: boring) as the weather ever gets in January, and I'm not complaining one bit. Old Man Winter is going to take a siesta through at least Tuesday of next week. A bubble of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will keep us mild, storm-free and dry through the period, with temperatures 10 to 15° above average. Lately we've had a strong inversion overhead; temperatures a few thousand feet above the ground in the 40s even some 50s! Cold air sinks, warm air rises, so with warm on top of cold means the atmosphere is very stable, serving up a weather menu for that crud, low stratus clouds and even a rare January air pollution event. An air pollution advisory remains in effect today because the inversion overhead is acting like a lid, trapping crud, low clouds and man-made pollutants near the ground. People who suffer from respiratory problems, heart ailments, even kids & athletes who breath deep and hard in the great outdoors should take it a little easier until the air quality improves sometime next week.



A parade of storms. Check out the latest enhanced, infrared satellite image, showing a series of very strong storms off the California coast. Weather models are suggesting a very stormy spell of weather next week for the west coast, with a potential for flash flooding, mudslides, even some snow for the higher hills outside L.A. as early as Monday of next week. NOAA's vast menu of weather satellite image can be found here.


Hey is it just me or are there some tentative signs of spring everywhere you turn? The birds are chirping (at least a few brave, potentially dumb birds lingering near my garage). when I leave in the morning - there's a nice, big smudge of twilight on the western horizon while I drive home around the dinner hour. I'm seeing commercials for the Auto Show, the Boat Show, the Home and Garden Show - even more commercials for fertilizer and seeds so take it for what it is. It's a start, a reminder that milder days are ahead. In the meantime we're in the midst of the coldest 2 weeks of winter, on average. Yes, the St. Paul Winter Carnival kicks off next Thursday, marking what is typically the 10 coldest days of the entire year, based on modern-day records dating back to 1891. We will get slapped around by Canada in February and at least a part of March, but the El Nino signal we've been expecting to see since last autumn is FINALLY kicking in. That could mean warmer-than-average for the second half of the winter. That, and the Vikes may go to the Superbowl. We can hope - we can dream, but it's wise to keep one's expectations in check.




Outlook for noon on Sunday, January 24. A significant storm of southern origin (loaded with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico) is forecast to track almost due north across the Plains, reaching Minnesota by the 24th, preceded and accompanied by accumulating snow, possibly mixing with ice over eastern counties of Minnesota and much of Wisconsin. Timing and amounts? Way too early to even speculate - just no that the models are fairly consistent showing a major storm the weekend after next. By then we will be long overdue for a little "action".


No big storms of any flavor are likely through Tuesday of next week, but at some point this copacetic pattern is going to shift and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will surge northward.
This may lead to a period of light icing (freezing drizzle) by Wednesday of next week, but highs in the upper 20s to 30 could keep most major highways just wet/slushy in spots. A second, stronger storm is forecast to arrive the weekend of January 23-24 and there may be enough cold air in place for significant snow, especially Sunday and Monday, January 24 and 25th. That's purely speculative right (a weather-disclaimer should be required for anything beyond 48 hours, at least in Minnesota) No problems this weekend, a little ice fog every morning, highs reaching the mid 30s across much of Minnesota - perfect weather for a sustained romp in the snow! The following weekend Old Man Winter may reemerge from hibernation, staging a vigorous comeback, a subtle (yet blunt) reminder that this is (historically) the dead of winter. Temperatures literally bottom out between now and about January 25. The REALLY good news: no brittle, hair-freezing, eye-watering Arctic outbreaks are in insight through the end of January. Our midwinter vacation has legs....



Place your bets. Here is the CPC (Climate Prediction Center, division of NOAA) forecast of temperature anomalies through the end of March. Based (mostly) on a lingering El Nino in the Pacific temperatures are predicted to trend well above average, with a predominate flow from the Pacific, rather than the Yukon. We've been waiting for this El Nino signal to emerge all winter - maybe we'll catch a (small) break the latter half of winter.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: A brighter day. Ice fog possible early, mix of clouds and sun. Winds: W 5-10. High: 32

Tonight: Patchy clouds. Low; 21

Saturday: Partly sunny, nearly 15 degrees above average. High: 33

Sunday: Plenty of sun, still storm-free. High: 32

Monday: Cooler, blue sky overhead. High: 28

Tuesday: Sunshine much of the day, no major worries. High: 27

Wednesday: Cloudy, chance of a little freezing drizzle/icing. High: 26

Thursday: Freezing drizzle possible, patchy clouds and fog. High: 28

Dripping Icicles

Welcome January Thaw. We've been expecting you, waiting, wondering - hoping that you would arrive on gentle, moderate Pacific breezes. The past 2 1/2 weeks have been pretty tough up here on the tundra - a lot of soul-searching, second-guessing, frantic calls to travel agents. Wait, are there any travel agents left? Even evacuating to Florida didn't help remove goosebumps and goose-bulges - it was nearly as cold there as it was up here in Minne-snowda. Yikes! The last 18 days have been a test, mental and physical. Not many records, just an extended spell below freezing (and zero, for that matter). Character-building indeed. We're due for a change in the pattern, and it's here: highs near freezing through Sunday, sloppy every afternoon on the highways, icy every morning with a touch of fog. A weak disturbance will whip up a few flurries this morning, a better chance of spying the sun this afternoon. BTW, have you noticed: the amount of daylight is on the increase. Yes, I can now drive home in lovely twilight. A few hardy birds are even chirping when I leave the house every morning. Can spring be far behind?


A surplus of snow. The latest NASA MODIS satellite image shows snow on the ground across roughly the northern half of America. You can zoom into this graphic and see individual ice-covered lakes in Minnesota. Try it out for yourself right here.

Next question please.

Storm-free weather lingers through next Tuesday (a slight cooling trend possible early next week, highs in the mid 20s, still a few degrees above average). Computer models are still hinting at a potential icing event for the middle of next week, a period of drizzle, freezing drizzle, maybe some freezing rain mixed with sleet and wet snow. Yes, next Wednesday and Thursday may be a slushy/icy mess. After drying out (temporarily) next Friday and Saturday a second, stronger southern storm shows signs of surging northward around Jan. 24-25, a Sunday-Monday, and the models are hinting at two things: a). probably cold enough for mostly-snow, and b). a few inches of snow may result, although it's still WAY early to try and pin down amounts and timing. Just know that the latter half of the weekend of Jan. 23-24 may look and feel like winter - again. I still don't see anything arctic or nanook looking out through the end of January. We'll probably pay for this January thaw in February. Count on it, although with any luck it won't be quite as harsh as it was in late December/early January. Fingers (and eyes) crossed.


A potentially stormy/snowy late January weekend. Models are hinting at a southern storm tracking northward across the Plains, spreading (mostly) snow into Minnesota by Sunday, Jan. 24, lingering into Monday, Jan. 25. A "plowable" snowfall is possible from this system, the next real opportunity for accumulating snow.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Clouds, a few flurries possible - partial clearing by afternoon. Winds: NW 10-20. High: near 30

Tonight: Partly cloudy and chilly. Low: 17

Friday: More sun, less wind, feeling better. High: 32

Saturday: Plenty of sun, feels like late February! High: 35

Sunday: Mix of clouds and sun, still well above average. High: 33

Monday: Blue sky, still dry and storm-free. High: 28

Tuesday: Sun giving way to increasing clouds. High: 27

Wednesday: Cloudy, chance of a little freezing drizzle/ice. High: 28

Thursday: Wintry mix possible, some ice lingers. High: 29