Storm Diverts South

Storm Diverts South

New model runs show the snow storm diverting south across southern Minnesota. The Winter Storm Watch that was in effect last night across Central Minnesota has been canceled, but Winter Weather Advisories have now been posted for the Twin Cities. Snow accumulations across central Minnesota are expected to be much less than previously thought, but may be slightly more from the southern Metro and places southwestward. It is important to keep in mind that storm systems can be very finicky and any deviation in the track can mean a big change in snowfall amounts. Monday mornings commute is still expected to be less than average, perhaps even not so good. Here's the text from the NWS about the canceled Winter Storm Watch:

...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS
CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WATCH.

ITS APPEARS THAT THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW TOTALS WILL OCCUR OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHERE A WINTER
STORM WATCH HAD BEEN POSTED EARLIER...AND IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
SNOW TOTAL WILL BE AROUND AN INCH OR TWO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO THREE INCHES.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND END BY MID
AFTERNOON. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY AND EXPECT
SOME SLIPPERY ROADS...HOWEVER...TRAVEL SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH
IMPACTED BY THE SNOWFALL.

Here's the Evidence:

Yesterday's Run:

Today's Run (Note the change in storm track... today's run is much farther south):


Thus the change in Weather Weather Advisories:

Yesterday's Watches:

Today's Advisories:
(Everything shaded in purple is under a Winter Weather Advisory through Monday)



At this point, the forecast snow totals stand as is:
Duluth: Trace/Flurries
St. Cloud: Less than 1"
Twin Cities: 1" to 3" (Less northern metro and more southern metro)
Mankato: 2" to 4"


Here's the Winter Weather Advisory Text from the NWS:

.SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY MONDAY. SNOW TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
LIKELY IN THE FAIRMONT AND ALBERT LEA AREAS. SNOW TOTALS WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES
BY MONDAY EVENING.

THUS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
MAJOR CITIES INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY ARE MINNEAPOLIS...SAINT
PAUL...REDWOOD FALLS...MANKATO...FARIBAULT...HUTCHINSON...ALBERT
LEA AND NEW RICHMOND.

THIS WILL BE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON. THE SNOW
COULD ADVERSELY IMPACT MOTORISTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE MONDAY...AND ALSO DURING THE BULK OF THE DAY ON MONDAY
OVER EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MOTORISTS
ARE ADVISED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY...SLOW DOWN...REDUCE YOUR SPEED
WHEN ENCOUNTERING CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS. YOU SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN A
SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE VEHICLE IN FRONT OF YOU.

Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities:

Monday: Cloudy with light snow showers likely, 1" to 3" possible. Less northern metro and more in the southern metro. High: 38.

Monday Night: Flurries ending, mostly cloudy and cold. Hard freeze likely. Low: 27

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and cold. High: 42

Wednesday: Clouds increase, light rain/sprinkles possible. High: 46

Thursday: Rain tapers (possibly mixed with wet snow north of Brainerd). High: 45

Friday: Mostly cloudy with spotty rain showers, still cold. High: 46

Saturday: Brighter and warmer: High near 50

Sunday: Sunny, even warmer. High mid to upper 50's