Northfield: 9.5"
Woodbury: 8.7"
Lake Elmo: 8"
MSP International: 7.4"
Chaska: 5.4"
Chanhassen: 5.1"
After a close encounter with a blizzard I'm afraid to see what's next on the old weather menu. How 'bout a Big-Gulp serving of fresh-chilled Yukon Surprise (icy pulp included). It was indeed a "plowable" snow for much of the area, 3-4" across central Minnesota (including St. Cloud), more like 6-10" in the Twin Cities area, and a whopping 15"+ for southeastern Minnesota, where 3-5 foot drifts were common. Minnesota City gets the coveted Golden Snow Shovel Award. 16.6" of snow, not counting the drifts. Winona boasted 15.5", with 10" at Owatonna and Hastings. The suburbs of Madison, Wisconsin were buried under 15" of snow, with some unofficial reports of 20" near the Dells. Throw in 35 mph winds, white-out visibilities and subzero wind chills and you have a fair amount of weather drama (at least for early December). Yes, it feels like late January out there right now, when (historically) temperatures bottom out in Minnesota.
Photo courtesy of KARE-11.
24 Hour Precipitation. This is a Doppler-radar estimate of liquid precipitation that fell during the blizzard. The dark blue-shaded areas (.25 to .50" rain equivalent) generally picked up 5-10" of snow. The bright green areas (.5 to 1") saw 10-15" snowfall amounts, with 3-5 foot drifts. Yes, the first true snow of the Winter of '09-'10 was a doozy!I'm baffled (nothing new, really) but my astonishment is reaching new levels of incredulity. Remember back in September, when life was good, and our weather was extraordinary (I seem to recall 3 stunning, sunny, lukewarm weeks in a row). September felt like August, which made October feel especially cruel & cool (3rd chilliest, and the 2-3" of snow rubbed salt in our weather-wounds). The locals were pissed! Then came November, remarkably quiet, dry, storm-free, as if our weather had been put on hold. It wound up being the third warmest November in Minnesota history. December brought back memories of October - once again the mercury went off a cliff. And now this latest episode of weather-behaving-badly. A local snowplow operator in Albert Lea interviewed on KARE-11 mentioned that he hasn't seen a real blizzard like this in nearly 21 years. His story is here.
Rhetorical question: what the heck is going on with our weather? It's always changing, variable, sometimes severe, but lately, it's been more unpredictable, off-the-chart bizarre. A symptom of climate change? I don't pretend to know. Monthly temperature departures (above/below) average have always been in the 2-5 F degree range, but lately they've been an order of magnitude more extreme. November was 10-15 degrees warmer than average, which - statistically - is VERY significant. Who knows what the rest of December will bring, but at the rate we're going, alternating warm/cold every other month I'd bank on a chillier than average December. NOAA continues to insist that January - March should be warmer than average, based on El Nino, but there are two wild cards. 1). Roughly 2 out of 3 El Nino winters wind up being milder than average, so there's a 1 in 3 chance this could wind up chillier. 2). The sun is still devoid of sunspots. There is a fairly strong correlation between sunspot-free periods and unusually cold weather, especially over North America. That's why I'm not quite as confident as NOAA that we'll escape with a milder winter. Odds favor this, yes, but I'm still not totally convinced.
The sun peeks through today, we'll be lucky to see 10 degrees (above zero!) by mid afternoon. At least the fierce, eye-watering winds will ease up, so will the blowing/drifting. It should be a better travel day (assuming you can get your vehicle started). Winds aloft blow more from the Pacific over the weekend, meaning 20s Saturday, even a shot at FREEZING on Sunday. Only in Minnesota can the locals get (a little) pumped about 32 lousy degrees, but in truth, compared to the burning sting out there right now - Sunday will be a huge step in the right direction. A burst of light snow late Monday accompanies the next cold front, more single digit highs likely by the middle of next week. Long-range GFS guidance is hinting at another shot at freezing the weekend before Christmas, a few inches of snow possible December 22-24 before another arctic slap arrives just in time for Christmas Eve. The mercury may hold in single digits Christmas Day with a wind chill guaranteed to chase all but the hardiest souls indoors. You may be wearing those neatly-hung stockings hanging on the mantle!
One thing seems fairly certain: whatever snow is in your yard right now will still be there Christmas Day. A little snow may melt/evaporate, but we may add to the pile late Monday of next week, and a few days before Christmas. That said, no more big, beefy storms are brewing anytime soon. A fluke or a trend, a freakish December blizzard or an omen of what's to come.
Place your bets.
Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities
Today: Increasing clouds, still bitter. Winds: W 10-20. High: 8 (wind chill: -10 to -20 most of the day).
Tonight: Partly cloudy, unseasonably cold for mid December. Low: -2
Friday: Partly sunny, a little less wind. High: near 12
Saturday: Some AM sun, clouds increase with late-day flurries. High: 24
Sunday: Mostly cloudy, a few flurries - no significant accumulation. High: 32 (!)
Monday: Cloud increase, a coating of snow possible late with the next arctic front. High: 23
Tuesday: Gusty, turning bitter with some sunshine. High: 8
Wednesday: Icy sun, still numbing. High: 13 (after waking up to -7)
SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT (courtesy of NOAA)
INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
13.30 ZUMBROTA MN GOODHUE 0310 PM
13.10 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 0235 PM
12.40 STANLEY WI CHIPPEWA 0844 AM
12.00 BALDWIN WI ST. CROIX 1040 AM
12.00 AUGUSTA WI EAU CLAIRE 0700 AM
10.50 FARIBAULT MN RICE 0800 AM
10.00 3 SE ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 0800 AM
10.00 FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 0800 AM
9.90 W OWATONNA MN STEELE 0705 AM
9.50 4 E RIVER FALLS WI PIERCE 0915 AM
9.00 NORTHFIELD MN RICE 0906 AM
9.00 TURTLE LAKE WI BARRON 0846 AM
9.00 JIM FALLS WI CHIPPEWA 0800 AM
9.00 DURAND WI PEPIN 0800 AM
9.00 2 SSE GENEVA MN FREEBORN 0736 AM
9.00 KIESTER MN FARIBAULT 0621 AM
8.70 WOODBURY MN WASHINGTON 0914 AM
8.50 CLAYTON WI POLK 0100 PM
8.50 NEW MARKET MN SCOTT 0718 AM
8.30 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 1214 PM
8.20 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 0739 AM
8.10 HAMMOND WI ST. CROIX 0800 AM
8.00 RIVER FALLS WI PIERCE 0320 AM
8.00 WATERVILLE MN LE SUEUR 1200 PM
8.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0811 AM
8.00 LAKE ELMO MN WASHINGTON 0800 AM
8.00 ELK MOUND WI DUNN 0800 AM
8.00 WINNEBAGO MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM
8.00 6 NW RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0650 AM
7.50 CONNORSVILLE WI DUNN 0815 AM
7.50 WASECA MN WASECA 0800 AM
7.50 ST PETER MN NICOLLET 0800 AM
7.40 MINNEAPOLIS ST PAUL APT MN HENNEPIN 0600 PM
7.10 ROBERTS WI ST. CROIX 0800 AM
7.00 RIDGELAND WI DUNN 0233 PM
7.00 WELCOME MN MARTIN 1055 AM
7.00 SHOREVIEW MN RAMSEY 0939 AM
7.00 LONSDALE MN RICE 0800 AM
7.00 1 W CARVER MN CARVER 0700 AM
7.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0621 AM
6.60 5 SW ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0901 AM
6.50 1 SSW JORDAN MN SCOTT 0550 AM
6.00 VADNAIS HEIGHTS MN RAMSEY 0320 PM
6.00 2 S BRUCE WI RUSK 0124 PM
6.00 HOLCOMBE WI CHIPPEWA 0800 AM
6.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0800 AM
6.00 LAKELAND MN WASHINGTON 0800 AM
6.00 1 N CAMERON WI BARRON 0741 AM
5.50 2 NE BUFFALO MN WRIGHT 0800 AM
5.50 CUMBERLAND WI BARRON 0800 AM
5.50 6 SSW LAKEVILLE MN SCOTT 0715 AM
5.50 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 0700 AM
5.40 2 N CHASKA MN CARVER 0806 AM
5.20 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 0710 AM
5.10 CHANHASSEN NWS MN CARVER 0600 PM
5.10 1 ESE MILROY MN REDWOOD 0800 AM
5.00 WEST ST PAUL MN DAKOTA 0831 AM
5.00 HAMBURG MN CARVER 0800 AM
5.00 STILLWATER MN WASHINGTON 0736 AM
5.00 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0718 AM
4.80 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 0817 AM
4.50 ELK RIVER MN SHERBURNE 0800 AM
4.50 1 NNW COLD SPRING MN STEARNS 0800 AM
4.20 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0800 AM
4.20 ROCKFORD MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM
4.10 FRIDLEY MN ANOKA 0929 AM
4.10 WACONIA MN CARVER 0714 AM
4.00 8 SW GRANITE FALLS MN YELLOW MEDICINE 0831 AM
4.00 BROWNTON MN MCLEOD 0717 AM
4.00 KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0604 AM
3.80 ONAMIA MN MILLE LACS 0800 AM
3.60 3 NNW ANDOVER MN ANOKA 0915 AM
3.60 GAYLORD MN SIBLEY 0800 AM
3.20 8 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 1100 AM
3.20 5 NE FOREST LAKE MN CHISAGO 0800 AM
3.00 6 S NORTH BRANCH MN CHISAGO 0138 PM
3.00 MADISON MN LAC QUI PARLE 0853 AM
3.00 ST CLOUD SCSU MN STEARNS 0800 AM
3.00 MORTON MN RENVILLE 0736 AM
3.00 LITCHFIELD MN MEEKER 0634 AM
3.00 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0634 AM
2.50 MILACA MN MILLE LACS 0800 AM
2.40 RICE MN BENTON 0800 AM
2.30 DONNELLY MN STEVENS 1029 AM
2.30 3 WNW PRINCETON MN MILLE LACS 0800 AM
2.10 ST CLOUD AIRPORT MN STEARNS 0600 PM
2.00 7 NNW OGILVIE MN KANABEC 1246 PM
2.00 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 1135 AM
2.00 CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0724 AM
1.50 LONG PRAIRIE MN TODD 0800 AM
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