Swine Flu Blues

* Check your watch: did you remember to "fall back" late last night? Daylight Saving Time is over.

* 50s likely today, sunshine south, showers of rain/snow far northern Minnesota.

* Turning cooler tomorrow, temperatures this week should be 2-5 degrees cooler than average.

* A real cold front is roughly 7-8 days away, highs may hold in the 30s by next Tuesday, November 10.


"Yep, looks like you have H1N1," the doctor muttered under her breath, doing her best to stay as far away from me as humanly possible. Say what? It took a few seconds for that to sink in, but now my worst fear was confirmed. Friday morning at 4 am I woke up, shivering uncontrollably. I piled on a few blankets - didn't help. My wife (Laurie) convinced me to go to Urgent Care, and that's where I got the diagnosis. "Just about all the flu we're seeing out there right now is H1N1," the doctor told me at Park Nicollet in Chanhassen. "We're not seeing the seasonal flu yet - this is all swine flu." Anything I can do? She shook her head. "We have Tamiflu, but only for high-risk patients, kids under 5, pregnant women, people with preexisting medical conditions. Sorry. Drink plenty of fluids, if your fever goes above 104 come back in. That, and if you can't breathe." Oh, great.



I went home - dazed, aching all over, and proceeded to take a nap, only to wake up feeling worse than I thought possible. The doc had explained that swine flu is respiratory-related (that's why she asked if I had asthma or smoked). No and no, thank God. But when I was sleeping all the fluids collected in my lungs - I woke up WHEEZING, sounds coming out of my lungs I've never heard before, like there was water collecting down there. And every time I tried to cough it up it felt like my lungs were being plugged into an AC wall socket. Like I was coughing up fireballs. Electric pain. Not to get too detailed here (TMI) but like most other things in life, the fear of H1N1 is probably worse than the reality.

"99.6% of people don't have to go on ventilators. Most people recover after a week or so, but you can't go out into public - and risk infecting others - until 24 hours after your fever breaks." She warned me about pneumonia, told me that many people didn't see pneumonia symptoms until 5-7 days into their illness. Great! Have a nice day.

No idea how I caught it - I've been stuck on 8 different planes during the last 2-3 weeks, so God only knows where I contracted this cute little bug, but I'm down for the count for a few days - have just enough strength and stamina to punch a few keys on my laptop, update you on Halloween '09, and the crazy, soggy-cool October of '09, peer ahead (cautiously) into the first 10 days of November.

Weather Headlines

Dry Halloween, but temperatures 10 degree below normal will make for chilly Trick or Treat conditions.

Don't forget to "fall back" one hour late tonight as Daylight Saving Time ends.

3rd wettest October (6.01"), 4th coolest on record....fewest number of 60-degree days since 1925!

50s return Sunday, series of weak, clipper-like disturbances next week - no more major soakings (or snow) in sight.


El Nino getting stronger - increasing odds of a milder winter (I know, hard to believe right now).


Halloween worked out pretty much as expected (happy to see the gale force winds subside just in time for little costumed creatures to roam area neighborhoods, in search of sweets). As winds swing around to the southwest today temperatures should reach the 50s by afternoon, a few showers (rain or snow) skirting far northern Minnesota, but the sun should be peeking through from St. Cloud on south to the Iowa border.

No big, beefy storms are brewing for next week, just a series of weak Alberta Clippers, each one preceded by clouds and a few light showers, each one followed by a weak, reinforcing shot of chilly air. Highs should be mostly in the 40s to low 50s, the only real chance of (rain) showers coming Thursday night. We're still due for a real outbreak of Indian Summer, but I just don't see it, at least not through the first 2 weeks of November. I predicted one more run of 60s, but at this rate it may take a minor miracle to get that kind of warmth into town. I wouldn't rule it out, but the odds drop off now (rapidly) with each passing day. Computer models are hinting at a memorable shot of cold air roughly one week out, by Monday/Tuesday, November 9-10 highs may hold in the 30s over much of Minnesota, but the models are hinting at a fairly rapid thaw - we'll see more 40s and even some 50s into mid November. After that the old crystal ball gets VERY murky!


Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities


Today: Partly sunny, breezy and milder. A few rain/snow showers over far northern MN. Winds: south 10-20. High: 55

Sunday night: Patchy clouds. Sprinkles/flurries stay well north of the metro area. Low: 38

Monday: Turning noticeably cooler again, lot's of clouds, a cold wind. High: 48

Tuesday: More sun, less wind expected. High: 49

Wednesday: Plenty of sun, "near normal" again. Shower possible late. High: 51

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, chance of a few showers. High: 46

Friday: Unsettled, another shower or sprinkle. High: 44

Saturday: Partly sunny and brisk. High: 45

Swine Flu Blues

"Yep, looks like you have H1N1," the doctor muttered under her breath, doing her best to stay as far away from me as humanly possible. Say what? It took a few seconds for that to sink in, but now my worst fear was confirmed. Friday morning at 4 am I woke up, shivering uncontrollably. I piled on a few blankets - didn't help. My wife (Laurie) convinced me to go to Urgent Care, and that's where I got the diagnosis. "Just about all the flu we're seeing out there right now is H1N1," the doctor told me at Park Nicollet in Chanhassen. "We're not seeing the seasonal flu yet - this is all swine flu." Anything I can do? She shook her head. "We have Tamiflu, but only for high-risk patients, kids under 5, pregnant women, people with preexisting medical conditions. Sorry. Drink plenty of fluids, if your fever goes above 104 come back in. That, and if you can't breathe." Oh, great.

I went home - dazed, groggy, aching all over, and proceeded to take a nap, only to wake up feeling worse than I thought possible. The doc had explained that swine flu is respiratory-related (that's why she asked if I had asthma or smoked). No and no, thank God. But when I was sleeping all the fluids collected in my lungs - I woke up WHEEZING, sounds coming out of my lungs I've never heard before, like there was water collecting down there. And every time I tried to cough it up it felt like my lungs were being plugged into an AC wall socket. Like I was coughing up fireballs. Electric pain. Not to get too detailed here (TMI) but like most other things in life, the fear of H1N1 is probably worse than the reality.


"99.6% of people don't have to go on ventilators. Most people recover after a week or so, but you can't go out into public - and risk infecting others - until 24 hours after your fever breaks." She warned me about pneumonia, told me that many people didn't see pneumonia symptoms until 5-7 days into their illness. Great! Have a nice day.

No idea how I caught it - I've been stuck on 8 different planes during the last 2-3 weeks, so God only knows where I contracted this cute little bug, but I'm down for the count for a few days - have just enough strength and stamina to punch a few keys on my laptop, update you on Halloween '09, and the crazy, soggy-cool October of '09, peer ahead (cautiously) into the first 10 days of November.

Weather Headlines

Dry Halloween, but temperatures 10 degree below normal will make for chilly Trick or Treat conditions.

Don't forget to "fall back" one hour late tonight as Daylight Saving Time ends.

5th wettest October (5.52", wettest since 1971), 4th coolest on record....fewest number of 60-degree days since 1925!

50s return Sunday, series of weak, clipper-like disturbances next week - no more major soakings (or snow) in sight.


El Nino getting stronger - increasing odds of a milder winter (I know, hard to believe right now).

Today's Predicted Weather map at 1 pm. Thursday's soaker is lifting into northeastern Canada, dragging a cold front down the east coast, a weak warm front pushing across the Dakotas. Dry weather should be the rule this Halloween across Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Halloween 'Cast: partly cloudy, breezy, cool and dry. Trick or Treat temperature: 38-41. Wind chill: 25-29.


Expect leftover clouds, even a few sprinkles/flurries out there today, although most of the flakes will be confined to the Minnesota Arrowhead. Skies may even try to clear a bit as the day wears on, temperatures stuck in the 30s with a stinging northwest wind. As winds swing around to the southwest tomorrow temperatures should reach the 50s by afternoon, a few showers (rain or snow) skirting far northern Minnesota.

No big, beefy storms are brewing for next week, just a series of weak Alberta Clippers, each one preceded by clouds and a few light showers, each one followed by a weak, reinforcing shot of chilly air. Highs should be mostly in the 40s to low 50s, the only real chance of (rain) showers coming Thursday night. We're still due for a real outbreak of Indian Summer, but I just don't see it, at least not through the first 2 weeks of November. I predicted one more run of 60s, but at this rate it may take a minor miracle to get that kind of warmth into town. I wouldn't rule it out, but the odds drop off now (rapidly) with each passing day.

Enjoy Halloween, be safe out there. Don't forget to turn your clocks back one hour before turning in late tonight. And count your blessings - good health is one of those things we all tend to take for granted, until we lose it. I'll be popping ibuprofen, drinking plenty of fluids, trying to avoid infecting my wife (and friends). Probably not one of my better Halloweens.....

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Halloween: Clouds and flurries giving way to partial clearing later today, a cold wind. Winds: NW 15-25, under 15 mph by the dinner hour. High: 45

Saturday night: (set your clocks back one hour before bedtime). Partly cloudy, chilly. Low: 34

Sunday: Clouds increase, breezy and milder. A few rain/snow showers over far northern MN. High: 56

Monday: Turning cooler again, lot's of clouds, a cold wind. High: 49

Tuesday: More sun, less wind expected. High: 50

Wednesday: Plenty of sun, "near normal" again. High: 53

Thursday: Sunny start, clouds increase, a few (rain) showers Thursday night. High: 48

Friday: Unsettled, another shower or sprinkle. High: 46

Freaky Friday, Werewolf Warning Posted

Please don't adjust your PC. The photo below was not from a nearby town, I'm happy to report. No reruns of '91, when Minnesota was in the grip of a once-in-a-lifetime storm, the dreaded "Halloween Superstorm". 28" of snow fell in a little over 2 days as a massive storm stalled over the Great Lakes, prolonging the snow bands wrapping into Minnesota, leaving behind some 3-5 FOOT drifts and a state full of stunned residents. Just when thought we had seen everything. It was a storm for the ages, and no, statistically speaking, we probably won't have to endure anything that crazy ever again in our lifetimes. Statisticians explained that it was a 1 in 500 year event, but I'm not so sure. The way our weather patterns seem to be trending (more extremes, less "normal weather") my confidence level isn't as high as I'd like to see it.


Denver SuperStorm. This photo, courtesy of CBS4 in Denver, was taken in Highlands Ranch, Colorado, just outside of Denver, where 16-25" of snow was reported.

Denver residents had their own personal, Superstorm yesterday, a cool 16" at the airport, but I saw some 22-25" amounts in the west suburbs. The town of Pinecliffe picked up 44" of snow, nearly 4 FEET piled up! Not drifts - actual accumulating snow! Enough warm streamed north ahead of the storm to keep our precipitation falling as rain, nearly .50" fell, but over 1" of rain was observed in Rochester, closer to 1.3" down in Austin, near the Iowa border. Although the heaviest, steadiest rains are over - pushing east across Wisconsin into Michigan - a few windblown showers and sprinkles will greet you as you head out and about today, temperatures falling through the 50s into the 40s as winds swing around to the west. The good news (for those of us not quite ready to be plastered in white) is that by the time it's cold enough aloft for snow, the vast majority of the moisture will be pinwheeling to our east toward the Great Lakes. Over a foot of snow piled up in the Black Hills of South Dakota, it's a winter wonderland a few hundred miles west of town, but just puddles (and wet leaves) in your path today. Computer models (NAM) print out another .10 to .20" of rain today, mostly light and showery - not as heavy as it was Thursday, but count on soggy, raw conditions for Friday evening football games as temperatures dip into the 30s, a stiff wind making it feel more like 20-25.

Doppler Radar Rainfall Estimates. This is a derived product from the MPX (Twin Cities) Doppler located in Chanhassen Minnesota. Note the heaviest amounts (yellow/orange) near Austin and Albert Lea, where well over 1" of rain was reported on Thursday.

Twin Cities Almanac: October temperatures running 6.6 F. cooler than average for the month.

Halloween Update. The good news: it won't rain (or snow!) Expect Trick or Treat temperatures in the upper 30s to around 40, a stubborn wind from the northwest creating a stinging wind chill of 25-30. We've seen worse, yes. The stars may be poking through tomorrow evening, a partly cloudy sky likely over central and southern counties. Of course the Witch Watch and Werewolf Warning remains posted for the entire area - I expect some unspeakably horrifying objects to show up on Doppler Radar tomorrow evening. You'll be fine (as long as you don't hand out toothpaste or apples to Trick or Treaters).

Saturday looks chilly, temperatures running 5-10 degrees below average (keep in mind compared to Denver residents we're getting off easy). Sunday looks better, milder as winds pick up from the south - afternoon highs poking well up into the 50s. A weak clipper-like system may spread a few light showers (rain/snow - looks like a mix) over the northern third of Minnesota Sunday, but odds favor dry weather for central and southern counties of our fair state. Nothing too controversial shaping up for next week, daytime highs ranging from the upper 40s to the mid 50s - most of the moisture sliding off to our south.

We just survived/endured/tolerated one of the coolest, wettest Octobers in Minnesota history. This, coming after one of the driest, warmest Septembers we've ever seen. Kind of makes you wonder what magic tricks Mother Nature has up her sleeve for November. What can possible go wrong, eh?

NAM Outlook for 1 pm Saturday. Looks like a dry Halloween statewide this year with a cool northwest wind, a few breaks in the clouds, temperatures falling through the low 40s into the upper 30s during Trick or Treat time. I guess, all things considered, we should be counting our atmospheric blessings.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Mostly cloudy, turning windy and cooler with a few showers and sprinkles likely. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 46, falling into the 30s by late afternoon.

Tonight: Leftover clouds, sprinkles, even a few stray flurries. Low: 36

Halloween: Becoming partly sunny, breezy - still cooler than average. High: 45 (Trick or Treat temperatures dipping into the upper 30s, but dry weather is expected).

Sunday: Increasing clouds, milder. Chance of a few showers of rain/snow up north (should stay dry most of the day close to home). High: 55

Monday: Mostly cloudy, cooler than normal. High: 49

Tuesday: More sun, a few degrees milder. High: 51

Wednesday: Intervals of sun, quiet and dry. High: 52

Tracking Another October Soaker

* 1"+ rain expected over the next 18 hours - grab an umbrella as you head out the door.

* Turning windy, cooler and drier Friday as the storm pushes east.

* Dry, cool Halloween - Trick or Treat temperatures near 40 (windchill dipping into the 20s)

* Climate Headlines: more alarming changes observed in the arctic regions (NOAA)

The rain on the Plains falls mainly on....Minnesota. At least this month. If we pick up another .80" or so we'll set a new October rainfall record. Just over 5" of rain has already soaked the region this month, 2-3 times the normal amount (yes, the drought is pretty much history). The good news: farmers are breathing a huge sigh of relief statewide. Soil moisture is being recharged - trees and shrubs have gotten a long, cool drink. All this rain arrived in time to do some real good, to soak deep into the ground before cold temperatures had a chance to freeze up the top 1-2 feet of topsoil. The bottom line: we'll be in great shape for the '10 planting season.

An approaching storm will tap Gulf moisture today, some of the rain will be moderate to heavy from this afternoon into late tonight. The latest models are hinting at over 1" of rain by the breakfast hour tomorrow. On the backside of the storm wind shift to the southwest tomorrow morning, the rain quickly tapers off, and temperatures begin to tumble Friday afternoon as winds blow from the west/northwest, setting the stage for a cool Halloween.

The good news? Halloween '09 doesn't look quite as chilly as it did a couple days ago. Temperatures should peak in the mid to upper 40s with Trick Or Treat temperatures around 40, possibly upper 30s over central Minnesota. Computer models are hinting at a stubborn wind around the dinner hour Saturday, sustained at 10-15 with gusts as high as 20 mph. So there WILL be a noticeable whiff of windchill. Factoring in the wind it will FEEL like mid 20s at times, so a few extra layers are still advised underneath those crazy costumes.

Another full latitude low pressure system. From space storms look like "comma clouds" or giant, sprawling atmospheric question marks. Fitting. The slow forward motion of today's storm will give it enough time to ingest moisture from the Gulf of Mexico - shooting it north in the form of moderate rain from this afternoon into much of tonight, resulting in some 1"+ amounts.

Rainfall Meteogram. All the weather models agree that significant rain should fall later today, anywhere from .5 to 1.2", but there's still a fair amount of disagreement between the various weather simulations. Ah, the joy of weather prediction. The more the computers agree, the more our "confidence level" rises...

The Perils of Prognostication. This is why meteorologists have gray hair (if they have any hair left at all). Check out the [amazing] contrasts in predicted rainfall across the region. The heaviest 1.5"+ amounts are forecast to fall from the Twin Cities on south and east toward Albert Lea and Rochester. Meanwhile less than .50" is forecast to fall west of St. Cloud.

Daylight Saving Time kicks in late Saturday night (an extra hour of sleep this weekend as we all "fall back" - hooray!) The downside: the sun will set around 5 pm Sunday. Yes, we're sliding into the dark days of winter - a lack of sunlight seems to effect more people than the actual cold itself. I'm thinking about investing in a full-spectrum reading lamp this winter. Most lamps only shine with one frequency. Full spectrum lights have multiple frequencies, mimicking the sun, and they've been proven to pull many SAD (seasonal affective disorder) sufferers out of their cold, dark funk. Check with a doctor first, but consider a full spectrum light. Treat yourself - you won't be disappointed.

Temperatures trend a few degrees below normal much of next week, highs mostly stuck in the 40s north and the low 50s south, but models are hinting at a glimpse of Indian Summer by next weekend, the first full weekend of November. It's early to get too specific, but the GFS model is suggesting a shot at 60 by November 7-8. After the chilling October we've all been muddling through we are (statistically) due for a temperature turnaround, a brief upward blip in the mercury, one last romp with Indian Summer. We're due, and Mother Nature may just oblige.


Halloween Details. According to NOAA Saturday highs should be in the mid 40s across much of the area, but only low 40s over far northern counties. The sun should be out part of the day, virtually no chance of any rain (or snow) to complicate late-day Trick or Treating. Below you can see predicted wind speeds for 5 pm Saturday, showing sustained winds of 10-15, with gusts over 20 mph at times. Expect a stinging windchill when you take the kids out late Saturday.


Now....transitioning from weather to climate, some breaking news from the top of the world. It's odd and a bit troubling to see meltwater ponds at the North Pole, but this was no ordinary summer at the top of the world.

Wide-spread melt ponds observed by NOAA's North Pole Web cam. (Credit: NOAA)

A recent report from NOAA documents more dramatic changes taking place in the arctic region. Profound changes in the quantity/quality of sea ice, fresh water, the melting of the Greenland Ice Cap and changes in the circulation of ocean water north of the Arctic Circle are being tracked by NOAA scientists. Among their findings:

• A change in large scale wind patterns affected by the loss of summer sea ice,
• The replacement of multi-year sea ice by first-year sea ice,
• Warmer and fresher water in the upper ocean linked to new ice-free areas,
• A continued loss of the Greenland ice sheet,
• Less snow in North America and increased runoff in Siberia, and
• The effect of the loss of sea ice on Arctic plant, animal, and fish species.

The complete article can be found here.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Cloudy with rain likely (heavier and steadier by afternoon/evening). Winds: East 10-20. High: 55

Tonight: Rain lingers, wet roads. Low: 45

Friday: Rain tapers, turning windy and cooler with lot's of clouds and a few sprinkles. High: 46 (falling into the 30s by late afternoon).

Saturday: Partly cloudy, breezy and cool (dry for Trick or Treating). High: 51 (winds NW 10-20)

Saturday night: Mostly clear, chilly. Low: 35 (Daylight Saving Time - extra hour of sleep!)

Sunday: Increasing clouds, chance of a few showers/sprinkles by PM. High: 48

Monday: Plenty of sunshine, seasonably cool. High: near 50

Tuesday: Dim sun, high clouds increase. High: 53

Wednesday: Partly sunny, turning slightly cooler (still dry). High: 49

A potentially scary Halloween (weatherwise)

No cause for panic in the streets. We're not talking 1991 here. No 30" of snow over 3 days. With any luck that was a once-in-a-lifetime weather event (one that none of us who lived through those days will ever forget). My oldest son, Walt, was 1 - this was his first Trick-or-Treat memory, he was dressed up like a pirate. My camera was ready - this would be an exciting adventure! Not quite. All I remember is walking back in the house - the entire left side of his costume was plastered under 2" of snow - my boy wanted no part of Halloween. Frankly, I was starting to feel the same way. I remember going on the air at KARE-TV, going out on a limb, predicting 4-8" of snow from this unusual, early-season snowstorm.

25" later the flakes finally - mercifully - stopped flying. Travel was impossible, roads impassable - the heavy, wet snow (2-3 feet across most of the metro) dropped tree limbs, cutting off power. There were still leaves on the trees (!) and that made a bad situation even worse. The final indignity: there was so much snow in my driveway that the chief engineer at Channel 11 had to drive out to Orono in his Suburban to pick me up to do the shows. My poor Saab couldn't even make it out the garage door. 4-wheel drive? Didn't matter. There was THAT much snow. By this time I was convinced the whole thing was a dream, it all seemed surreal, otherworldly. You just can't get 30" of snow in late October and the the first 2 days of November. That just doesn't happen, even in Minnesota, where we see every kind of weather extreme imaginable. The storm smashed records left and right - it was THE story for weeks to come.

What happened? How could the forecasts be off by that much? "Paul, what the heck happened to your computer models. Are you playing Pong on the computer instead of looking at the weather?" Hahaha! Good one. Hindsight is always 20-20. But here's what (apparently) went down. Off the coast of New England "The Perfect Storm" (yes, the one immortalized by author Sebastian Junger) had unexpectedly stalled, whipping up hurricane force gusts and 50 foot seas. That stalled storm forced the storm over the Great Lakes to stall - again, unexpectedly, and that's why we picked up a cool 2-3 FEET of snow in a little over 2 days. The computer models all insisted that the pattern was "progressive" (ie. weather systems would continue to move along). In reality, the storm over the Great Lakes wobbled over the same location for nearly 36 hours, long enough to drop several hundred million TONS of snow on Minnesota. It was a storm for the ages, and there is a high probability we'll never see another storm of that ferocity and duration that early in the winter season ever again. I say that will all due respect and humility. That storm taught meteorologists a painful lesson: the limits of computer technology - that in spite of massive supercomputers and the best intentions there will always be (extreme) weather events that are still unpredictable - fickle - unknowable. Yes, Mother Nature always get the last laugh.


Getting Closer. Here is the latest GFS Outlook for accumulated snow. This tends to overpredict snowfall amounts, but 3-6" of snow may pile up over the central Dakotas by Friday afternoon, a couple inches for far northern Minnesota by Saturday PM - just in time for Halloween.

84 Hour GFS Outlook. The heaviest rain bands are forecast to set up over the southeastern third of Minnesota Thursday, some 1"+ amounts can't be ruled out, especially south/east of the Twin Cities. The very latest model run backs off on the amounts a bit, closer to 2/3rds of an inch of rain for MSP. Thursday still looks like the wettest day of the week.


Yesterday was a sight for sore (gray) eyes - nice to see the sun is still capable of shining on Minnesota - a fine fall day with highs poking into the mid 50s, a couple degrees ABOVE average for a change. Today won't be quite as bright as clouds lower and thicken, but dry weather should prevail throughout the day, a few light showers brushing far western Minnesota by the dinner hour. If you have something planned outside later today - no worries. It will look (and smell) like rain with gusty south winds, but I think most of the puddles will hold off until Thursday, when commute times may double, even triple, with considerable water on the highways. By Friday winds swing around to the west and northwest, temperatures tumble through the 40s into the 30s - it may be cold enough aloft for a little wet snow by late afternoon. The good news (if you're not quite ready for a coating of white on your lawn) is that by the time it's cold enough for snow, most of the moisture will be pinwheeling to our east into Wisconsin. A surge of chilling air follows the storm, daytime temperatures stranded in the 30s most of Saturday, just breaking 40 over the southern third of the state. It promises to be a chilly Halloween, temperatures at least 10 degrees colder than average with some leftover flurries over the Minnesota Arrowhead.

Meteogram for MSP. This future temperature trend shows temperatures peaking Thursday (with gusty, rain-whipped southerly winds), followed by a sharp temperature drop Friday. Trick or Treat temperatures are forecast to be somewhere between 35-40 degrees. Factor in a 15 mph wind and you have a wind chill dipping into the low 20s at times. Make sure there's a hefty jacket or a few extra layers underneath those crazy costumes.

Expect a mostly cloudy, blustery Saturday - the sun may peek through over far southern Minnesota, while flurries coat lawns/fields over far northern Minnesota (an inch or two may even pile up). Sunday will start out with some sunshine, but clouds increase, a good chance of PM showers (probably rain south, but mixed with wet snow over the northern third of Minnesota, north of Brainerd). Temperatures will trend cooler than average into next week, highs mostly in the 40s and low 50s. Still no imminent sign of Indian Summer. Still waiting. At this rate it may be a long wait...

Observed Snow. I was surprised to see 2-4+" of snow on the ground over parts of the Minnesota Arrowhead - enough snow on the ground for some cross country skiing up in the BWCA this weekend? The ski season is starting a few weeks early this year, no question.

To see the latest snowfall reports for the USA (or zoom into the northern Plains and Great Lakes) click over to the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center. Some good stuff here.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Clouds increase and thicken, windy - but dry. Winds: SE 10-20. High: 52

Tonight: Cloudy, a growing chance of a shower. Low: 46

Thursday: Gray with rain likely. High: 55

Friday: Gusty, turning colder with showers tapering (possibly ending as a few wet snowflakes Friday PM). High: near 53, but falling through the 40s during the day.

Halloween: More clouds than sun, a chilly breeze. High: 42 (Trick or Treat temperatures near 35).

Sunday: Sunny start, then clouds increase, PM showers possible. High: 44

Monday: Lingering clouds, a few sprinkles possible. High: 46

Tuesday: Sun reappears (finally!). A bit milder. High: 52

7th wettest October in the Twin Cities

October temperatures in the Twin Cities: 7.5 degrees colder than average

Drip-dries drooping? A little extra-soggy around the edges? Moss growing on your north side? No wonder: you are surviving/enduring/tolerating the 5th wettest October since modern-day weather records were first started around 1891. So far the National Weather Service reports 4.82" of rain has fallen - that's 3.13" wetter than average for the month to date. This coming after one of the driest, warmest Septembers ever observed. Makes me wonder what's brewing for mid/late November. Speaking of - the weather map still looks more like early November than late October, like we've fast-forwarded a couple weeks into the future, based on the speed, the forward-motion of weather systems, and the quantity of numbing, bitter air showing up over northern Canada. There are no signs of it taking a plunge toward Minnesota anytime soon, in fact long-long range models are hinting at 60 by the end of the first week of November, maybe a string of 50s and low 60s into the second week of November. I know I'm a die-hard optimist, but the fact that we're running 4-6 degrees colder than average so far in October PROBABLY implies at least one nice run of Indian Summer left. I'll be shocked if we don't see at least one more day above 60. Shocked and disappointed.


Wettest Octobers in the Twin Cities. Graphic courtesy of the National Weather Service in Chanhassen.

In the short term today will be about as close to Indian Summer as we're going to see for at least the next 1-2 weeks. With bright sun and a stiff south breeze the mercury should rise well into the 50s - a few overly-optimistic bank thermometers over southern and western Minnesota could nudge 60. Soak it up - today easily the nicest day of the entire week. The next storm approaching from the Rockies (where they're bracing for some 1-2 foot snowfall amounts over the higher elevations) will pump Gulf moisture northward, increasing our cloud cover Wednesday; by Thursday a few rain showers are likely, even a stray clap of thunder - best chance over southeastern Minnesota! The timing and track are still up in the air - but as winds swing around to the west/northwest on Friday temperatures will tumble through the 50s into the 40s, rain could change to wet snow over far northern and western Minnesota by Friday evening. I think the heaviest/steadiest rains will be to our east by the time high school football games hit Friday evening, but it WILL be blustery, turning cooler - heavy jacket weather for sure.

GFS Weather Model valid 7 pm Halloween Eve. Check out the "wrap-around" precipitation spiraling around a deepening storm charging toward Hudson Bay. Those isobars spaced tightly together imply strong winds - the green shaded region over central/northern Minnesota could mean snow showers. Factor in 25 mph. wind gusts and temperatures in the mid 30s and the windchill factor will dip into the 20s, possibly the teens. Factor in a few extra layers under those scary/cute Halloween costumes Saturday PM.



Halloween Preview

Everything I've seen leads me to believe that Halloween '09 will be windy and colder than average - a few computer models are even hinting at flurries and sprinkles, mainly from St. Cloud on north toward Brainerd and Duluth. I doubt we'll see any accumulating snow late Saturday, but plan on wind chills dipping into the 20s. It will FEEL like December. Yeah, I know - scary stuff.



Daylight Saving Time

No, it's not "daylight savingS time". It's daylight saving time. Don't forget to FALL BACK one hour before hitting the sack late Saturday night - an extra hour of sleep this weekend. Hallelujah! The downside: by Sunday the sun will set before 5 pm. Yes, we're quickly spiraling into the dark days. That's why we decorate our trees with lights in December, to try and cheer ourselves up (and celebrate Christmas, of course).

Sunday Vikes-Green Bay Outlook

Just got a look at the latest guidance: weather could be a significant factor for Sunday's big game in Green Bay (have you heard about this cross-border "showdown"?) How could you avoid it? If you're making the trek expect:

Mostly cloudy skies.
Brisk northwest winds at 10-20 mph.
A few passing sprinkles, even a few flurries.
Gametime temperatures in the mid 40s (go for the heavy jacket - you won't regret it).

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Bright sun, pleasant (nicest day of the week). Winds: S/SE 10-20. High: 58

Tonight: Partly cloudy, not as chilly. Low: 40

Wednesday: Increasing clouds - still dry, a stiff breeze. High: 55

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, a growing chance of showers. High: 54

Friday: Windy, turning cooler with leftover showers. High: 53 (early - falling into the 40s).

Saturday/Halloween: Mostly cloudy, gusty and colder with a few passing flurries/sprinkles. High: 43

Sunday: Partly sunny, still chilly for late October. High: 47

Monday: Cloudy, chance of a light rain-snow mix. High: 43

Autumn hangs on, wintry rumors by late weekend?

Greetings from Annapolis, Maryland, where I spent the weekend watching the Navy football team eek past Wake Forest, occasional glimpses of my "youngster" (sophomore) son, Brett, at the U.S. Naval Academy, trying valiantly to avoid his old man. Sunday I searched in vain for my wife, Laurie, who ran the Marine Corp Marathon under a cool, sunny, perfect sky draped over the U.S. Capitol. Meanwhile my oldest son at Penn State, Walt, was on a road-trip somewhere in Pennsylvania, raising money for children's cancer research. Yes, compared to other family members I often feel like a great big (useless) load. Where does all this energy/initiative/drive & desire come from? I'm proud of my family - sometime I marvel at their initiative and dedication. I'm very lucky to be surrounded by amazing people, at home and at daily at WeatherNation, where I've been blessed with a terrific team of meteorologists, developers, engineers and graphic artists (and no, I'm not biased one bit!)

Marathon Woman. My bride of 25 years, Laurie, after just completing Sunday's Marine Corp Marathon in Washington D.C. This is her 4th marathon. Me? I have trouble driving 26.2 miles.

The future (in my humble opinion) of weather is personalization & interactivity, blending social media and user-generated content into the weather story (everyone DOES want to talk about the weather!) and making it easier/faster for consumers to get the precise nugget of weather information they need to make a smarter decision; one that will save them time, money, plan their days/weekends with greater confidence and precision - and keep their families safer in the process. We're just getting started. A few years from now we'll look back at what we're doing on the web (today) and laugh. This reminds me of the 1940s when baffled TV producers put radio programs on TV. It took them a few years to start creating content to take full advantage of this new broadcast medium called television. So it goes now. We're slapping TV shows and videos on the web and raving about the Hulu's and YouTubes of the world. Big deal. Once we really tap the interactive and personalization-capabilities of the Internet we'll have something radically different - and better than what we have today. We're just entering the second inning of a very long game.

Well, at least we salvaged a half-decent weekend - nice to see the sun out on Saturday, and at least yesterday's showers and sprinkles were in a liquid form. Expect a few patchy clouds today, but more sun tomorrow as the mercury brushes past 50. Clouds thicken up again on Wednesday, a stiff (increasingly moist) wind howling from the south ahead of the next storm system. The latest computer models bring a surge of southern moisture into Minnesota by Thursday, the atmosphere aloft warm enough for mostly rain. Right now Thursday appears to be the soggiest day of the week as a fairly impressive storm tracks right up the Mississippi Valley, hurling a swirl of rain bands into Wisconsin and much of Minnesota.

On the backside of this next storm expect a fresh slap of (fresh) Canadian air, highs stuck in the 30s by Sunday. It's still early (isn't it always) but if....IF an area of low pressure approaches from the Dakotas late Sunday and Monday the atmosphere overhead might just be marginally cold enough for a period of wet snow. The best chance of a couple of inches? Sunday night into Monday morning. It's too early to panic - or rejoice (if you have a snowmobile you're aching to push out of the garage!) Just know there's a potential for some accumulating snow - very close to home - early next week. Fitting that Halloween is Saturday night. By Sunday the weather maps may look positively scary!

Halloween Outlook, Saturday evening: partly cloudy, probably dry. Trick-Or-Treat temperatures in the mid 30s.


Friday's snowfall from space. Rain was mixed with wet snow much of Friday, but temperatures were just warm enough to keep snow from accumulating during the daylight hours. But after sunset some of that wet snow began to stick - in a hurry. 4" was reported in Red Wing, with a healthy 2.5" for Eau Claire. You can see the fresh snow on the ground from the GOES weather satellite, a minivan size instrument 22,300 miles above the equator. Sometimes you have to look every careful to distinguish clouds from snow on the ground. Thanks to the local National Weather Service for more on this freakish example of "micrometeorology".


Sunspot 1029 is a member of new Solar Cycle 24. Photo credit: SOHO/MDI. The sun is showing signs of life. Sunspot 1029 emerged this weekend, and it is crackling with B- and C-class solar flares. This movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) chronicles the sunspot's rapid development from Oct. 23rd through 25th. For more information click here for all the details at spaceweather.com
Sunspot Alert. Take my word for it, please, but things are heating up on the surface of the sun. So what? The only reason I'm including this astronomical nugget is because (some) scientists were linking our cooler-than-average summer with a total absence of sunspots. I've seen this correlation before: no sunspots = unusually cool weather for portions of North America, especially the Upper Midwest. So it stands to reason that if sunspots are on the increase again - maybe....MAYBE we'll see a return to a milder trend in the temperature department. Time will tell.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Intervals of sun, breezy. Cooler than average. Winds: NW/SW 10-15. High: 48

Tonight: Partly cloudy - chilly. Low: 35

Tuesday: Dim sun, windy and a bit milder. High: 54

Wednesday: Clouds lower and thicken. High: 52

Thursday: A cold rain, windy and raw. High: 47

Friday: Gusty and cold with a few sprinkles (possibly mixed with flurries). High: 42

Halloween: Nicer day of the weekend. Some sun, light winds - probably dry. High: near 40 (Trick-Or-Treat temperatures in the mid 30s).

Sunday: Sunny start, then increasing clouds. A period of wet snow is possible Sunday night - potential for a light, slushy accumulation. High: 37

Monday: Wet snow gradually tapers - potential for slushy, slippery travel. High: 36

The Incredible Edible Egg

The Incredible Edible Egg

My grandmother at the young age of (a good grandson would never reveal her age) just started using a computer and email... can you believe it? She just bought a laptop, wireless internet and is now playing virtual solitaire, surfing the web and emailing. I give her credit for attempting something new. I don't blame her, though, she always told me she felt left out when the program she was watching on TV said go to "such and such" DOT com for more information. She really is doing well and emailing with the best of them. However, I fear now that instead of a hand written birthday card in the mail each year, I'll get a virtual, singing birthday card in my email inbox. I have to admit - as we step into this fast pace "What I want, when I want, how I want" world we are losing the nostalgia of that crisp morning newspaper on the front step and that hand written letter from your family member or secret admirer. Technology is great, though, isn't it? I can't believe the things we are capable of doing in such a short amount of time. Time seems to be speeding up - everything seems to be moving faster - how can one keep up with the times?

I am amazed that a satellite from 22,500 miles above the Earth's surface can capture an image like the one below. It shows the snow cover from the unusual October snowfall that came through on Friday. It is outlined by the dotted white line, which is mainly across Wisconsin.


Or take a look at this image - An explosion at a gasoline facility from Puerto Rico's capital San Juan can be seen from space:


Yes, it's pretty incredible! There are many other satellite images that would blow your mind, but in the essence of time and space, we'll keep it to the images posted above. Though, if you interested "Google" satellite images from space and see what you come up with - I dare you! :)


Unsettled October

the unsettled October weather continues... another fast moving storm system will breeze through the state today with clouds and perhaps a few spotty showers. Nothing major is expected, except that it will be another cool and cloudy day this month. I don't see much of a change in the weather pattern this week, so on again - off again rain/snow showers will be possible for much of the week. Enjoy? *Shrug*

Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Cloudy with a few hours of cold light rain showers. High: 48

Tonight: Cloudy. Drizzle or a sprinkle possible early. Low: 36

Monday: Autumn-like. Lingering sprinkle possible early. High: 48

Tuesday: Slight chance of a spotty shower developing late. High: 50

Wednesday: Unsettled. Sprinkles possible again. High: 46

Thursday: Rain/snow shower? High: 44

Friday: More rain/snow shower? High: 43

Halloween Outlook: Mostly cloudy and chilly with a few sprinkles or flurries. High: 39 (Trick or Treat temperatures may be near freezing). Plan on a few extra layers under your kid's costumes - I have a feeling you're going to need them this year.

Hibernating in October

Hibernating in October

I feel a little strange, like a bear... ready to take a long nap. Throw me some comfort food and I'll be out. This cloudy, cool and wet weather is really something isn't it. It won't quit. I've been able to get most of the outdoor chores down around the house with the exception of a few, so if you're like me and you need to winterize things before it gets too late, today might be a good day to do it. The rain/snow/snizzle mix that we had yesterday has come to an end and few peeks of sunshine today will help to dry things out a bit before the next weather maker slides in tomorrow. The water vapor satellite image shown below illustrates the storm systems well. Each blotch of purple and blue is a storm system, which is riding the jet stream (strong upper level winds) eastward. The water vapor satellite tells us how much moisture is in the atmosphere, so where there is white, purple and blue, the atmosphere is moist; perhaps sufficient moisture for the presence of hydrometeors (any water or ice particle that has formed in the atmosphere). Where there is black, orange and red colors, the atmosphere is dry. Notice the slice of gray/black coloring that is seen across the Red River Valley between the two blobs of purple and blue. This darker shade of coloring indicates a brief drying of the atmosphere and hopefully enough drying at all levels of the atmosphere, so that we may be able to enjoy some sunshine.


Whatever sunshine we do see, won't last long, another storm system is quickly approaching and will be with us again tonight/tomorrow. Scattered light rain/snow showers will be found across parts of the state with the best chance of light snow possible in central and northern Minnesota. This storm is a pipsqueak compared to the monster that may wind up somewhere in the mid-section of the country next week. Take a look below:


No telling where exactly this storm may be in a weeks time or so, but more heavy rain/snow could be possible with this storm. I'll keep peering into the crystal ball, in the meantime, enjoy the weekend... we deserve it!


Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Partly cloudy, better day of the weekend. High: 51

Tonight: Becoming mostly cloudy with scattered rain developing. Low: 40

Sunday: Cloudy with a few hours of cold light rain showers. High: 49

Monday: Autumn-like. Lingering sprinkles. High: 49

Tuesday: Slight chance of a spotty shower. High: 50

Wednesday: Unsettled. Sprinkles possible again. High: 48

Halloween Outlook: Mostly cloudy and chilly with a few sprinkles or flurries. High: 39 (Trick or Treat temperatures may be near freezing). Plan on a few extra layers under your kid's costumes - I have a feeling you're going to need them this year.

Classic Mid Latitude Cyclone

Classic Mid Latitude Cyclone

What a storm! Not too often can we see storm like this roll through the central part of the country. Although, every spring and fall, storm like this become a little more frequent. The reason is because the temperature from north to south becomes greater and the atmosphere is trying to balance itself out. As the atmosphere draws cold, dry air south and warm, moisture air north; a steady stream of moisture can cool and condense into rain/snow. Note radar echoes from the Gulf of Mexico to just south of the Twin Cities. Most of the images caught on radar are in the form of rain, but temperatures have been cold enough f0r snow across central Nebraska.


Here are a few of the hefty snowfall reports:

 INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME
------  -----------------------  --  --------------   -------
12.00   5 SW BRADY               NE  LINCOLN          0910 AM

10.00   5 S STAPLETON            NE  LOGAN            0910 AM

7.00   4 S NORTH PLATTE         NE  LINCOLN          0817 AM

5.00   CURTIS                   NE  FRONTIER         0924 AM
            TREES DOWN AND POWER OUT FOR 3 1/2 HOURS.

A little light snow/sleet may be possible at times today across central and southern Minnesota, but accumulations, if any, will be very light and slushy. The best chance for snow to accumulate on grassy surfaces will be in southwestern Minnesota and perhaps a couple of spots in southeastern Minnesota. Here then is the precipitation type forecast for Friday:


Precipitation totals will be greatest across southeastern Minnesota where more than 1" could be possible:


Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Breezy and cold for October - persistent clouds, rain showers and possibly some wet flakes. High: 42

Tonight: Light rain/snow mix early, then becoming partly cloudy late. Low: 32

Saturday: Partly cloudy, better day of the weekend. High: Near 50

Sunday: Getting cloudier, PM showers of rain mixed with wet snow. High: 45

Monday: Autumn-like with a slight chance of showers. High: 50

Tuesday: Slight chance of a spotty shower. High: 50

Wednesday: Sprinkles possible again. High: Mid 40's

Halloween Outlook: Mostly cloudy and chilly with a few sprinkles or flurries. High: 39 (Trick or Treat temperatures may be near freezing). Plan on a few extra layers under your kid's costumes - I have a feeling you're going to need them this year.

A Wee Bit of Thursday Sunshine

A Wee Bit of Thursday Sunshine

Thanks to Rich Koivisto, a good friend of mine from Duluth, MN for sending me this picture of Jay Cooke State Park. Rich has been a faithful photo taker in the Northland for many years and has sent me some incredible shots the years we have been friends. I am happy/sad to report that for the first time since he and his wife's recent retirements, they'll be out of Duluth for the winter, enjoying the sunshine and warmer weather that Laughlin Nevada has to offer. Congratulations you two, but we'll miss you and certainly miss the beautiful photos from the North Shore. Though, I doubt Rich will stop taking pictures and we'll likely have some new/exciting scenery from the desert... stay tuned!


In other news, the cool and unusual October continues. 0.55" of rain at the Twin Cities Airport was no where near a daily rainfall record (1.76" in 1894), but do you realize that out of the first 21 days in October, we've seen rain on 13 of those days - a grand total of over 4.35" of rain for the month. Not only has it been wet, but it continues to remain cool with temperatures running nearly 8.5 to almost 9.0 degrees cooler than average. Latest computer model show an unsettled weather pattern through much of the rest of the month - see here:

After each system passes there will be a brief break in the action - a brief clearing - a wee bit of sunshine if you will... and take advantage of these 'shorter' days of sunshine. Take a stroll outside and replenish those vitamin D levels, but don't forget to bundle up, you'll likely need that extra layer. By the way, we are only a week and a half away from the time change. Mark your calendars for Sunday, November 1st at 2am to FALL BACK 1 HOUR. I always enjoy that extra hour of sleep on Sunday - don't you?


Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: AM fog. Becoming partly cloudy and chilly! High: 44

Tonight: Increasing clouds with spotty shower, especially southeast. Low: 33

Friday: Light rain/snow showers early, then persistent clouds. High: 42

Saturday: More sunshine and warmer, still cooler than average. High: 49

Sunday: Getting cloudier, PM showers of rain mixed with wet snow. High: 45

Monday: Autumn-like with a slight chance of showers. High: 48

Tuesday: Chance of light rain, mostly gray. High: 48

Wednesday: Slight chance of a light rain/snow mix. High: mid 40's

Halloween Outlook: Mostly cloudy and chilly with a few sprinkles or flurries. High: 39 (Trick or Treat temperatures may be near freezing). Plan on a few extra layers under your kid's costumes - I have a feeling you're going to need them this year.

Annual Orionid Meteor Showers

Annual Orionid Meteor Showers

Reports of fireballs falling from the sky have been coming in around the nation over the past few days and it's no coincidence. It's an annual event that takes place at this time each year. Halleys Comet, which last passed through this part of the Solar system back in 1985/86 (I was 3 1/2 yrs. old) left a trail of ice and tiny rocks. On October 21/22 each year the Earth passes through this tail of ice and rocks, which burns up rapidly through our atmosphere causing fireballs to rain down. These fireballs are known as shooting stars, but when the are grouped together, they are known as a meteor shower. The annual Orionid Meteor Shower will continue over the next couple of nights so keep your eyes open - now you know, that green streak of light you see passing through the night sky isn't extraterrestrial (Hopefully we'll clear out enough to see some of those meteors). You can report those meteors here: These are the all the reports received by the IMO already - keep them coming!!! By the way, Halley Comet won't be back until 2061 (I hope I'm alive to see it!


Weather Headlines

Wet Wednesday - Latest BUFKIT computer runs show nearly 1.13" for the Twin Cities through 7pm Wednesday.

Temperatures may be cold enough for a little light snow in central Minnesota late Wednesday - early Thursday morning. Here's the weather map at 5pm Wednesday, the blue coloring indicates snow:

The darker blue indicates heavier snow, which is located in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and this is where the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory until noon on Tuesday for the potential of UP TO 5" of snow in spots along the the North Shore.

Unsettled weather conditions continue through the rest of the week/weekend as storms continue to bounce across the International border. Here's the next 10 day precipitation animation:

Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Windy and raw with periods of rain, moderate at times. Turning colder by afternoon with falling temperatures - a brief period of wet snow is possible by late afternoon and evening, maybe a coating to 1" of slush on lawns and fields, especially north of St. Cloud. High: 46 (falling through the 30s).

Tonight: Rain/snow mix early, then mostly cloudy and cool. Low: 35

Thursday: Partly cloudy and chilly! High: 46

Friday: Breezy and cold for October - persistent clouds, sprinkle or flake possible. High: 41 - that's it!

Saturday: Intervals of sun, better day of the weekend. High: Around 50

Sunday: Getting cloudier, PM showers of rain mixed with wet snow. High: Around 50

Monday: Autumn-like with a slight chance of showers. High: 47

Halloween Outlook: Mostly cloudy and chilly with a few sprinkles or flurries. High: 39 (Trick or Treat temperatures may be near freezing). Plan on a few extra layers under your kid's costumes - I have a feeling you're going to need them this year.

Weathermap looks more like November

Weather Headlines

Today: mostly gray, but mostly dry - rain should hold off until tonight

Tomorrow: wettest day of the week, over .50" of rain likely, maybe some 1"+ amounts over central and northern MN. Umbrellas required.

Snow? Computer models hinting at a brief changeover to wet snow at the tail-end of the storm late tomorrow (1-3" slush for far northeastern MN, maybe a coating of slush over central MN, probably no accumulation in the immediate metro area, but it'll be close).

Chilly late-week weather, but the sun should return (at least partially) by Saturday (nicer day for outdoor stuff).

Rain/snow shower mix possible by Sunday PM over the northern half of Minnesota. Maps look more like mid November.

Early word on Halloween? May look and feel more like Thanksgiving (forecast at the end of the 7-Day below)



I could get accustomed to days like Monday. It started off on a vaguely terrifying note: the flight from Baltimore to MSP I was on was diverted to Detroit for an onboard medical emergency. We went from 35,000 to the runway in about 7 minutes, the fastest I think I've ever descended in an airplane. The entire time the flight attendants were on the intercom, pleading for a doctor or nurse to help with an ailing passenger in the back of the plane. At first I thought, "I'm going to be late - damn." (No, I'm not proud of that initial, visceral reaction). Then I thought about it, some poor guy in the back having a heart attack or stroke, fighting for his life, and here I am worrying about a missed appointment. Not cool. I realize these are scary times for many, with the H1N1 flu bug terror breaking out across the land. Now you just can't casually ignore a sore throat or fever - it's getting to the point I'm afraid to turn on the TV or radio, for fear of what new (mildly horrifying) headlines I might encounter. Sunday on 60 Minutes I heard Anderson Cooper reassure the audience that only 1 in 100 cases of H1N1 were truly serious, potentially life-threatening, but watching that poor football player on the hospital bed with tubes coming out of everywhere - the pictures told the story in a way that words couldn't. Scary stuff. We'll get through this - but sometimes I do wonder if we're getting the full story. If the prognosis was really grim would they even tell us, or hold back, so as not to incite riots and mass unrest? Not sure - I want to believe we're getting all the facts. And then the sun came out, illuminating the sugar maples, and it looked like a postcard outside my office window - I realized how happy I am to be alive now, at this time, in this country - how lucky I am to be here, on this crazy ride with everyone else. My day ended better than it started.

Well Paul sure is cheery today! Sorry to get off on a tangent. Between the drama on Northwest Flight 393 yesterday and a friend at WeatherNation telling me about his ill wife and baby (both running fevers) I think I'm just a little freaked out. Thankfully the weather won't be adding to my sense of woe and impending doom - clouds thicken today ahead of the next storm, most of the rain (and a COLD rain at that) comes Wednesday. Computer models are hinting at .50 to .70" of rain, and as winds swing around to the north on the backside of this storm late tomorrow enough cold air may surge south of the border for a changeover to wet snow at the tail-end of the storm. A coating of slush is possible in St. Cloud, maybe an inch or two farther north, from near Brainerd to the Iron Range, but I don't expect much, if any, accumulation from the Twin Cities on south and east. It still seems odd to be talking accumulating snow in mid October. This is the kind of discussion we should be having in mid November.

NAM/WRF Model valid 7 am Wednesday morning. This graphic shows expected rainfall amounts from 1 am to 7 am Wednesday morning, hinting at some .50"+ amounts over central and northern Minnesota. Yes, it may be a slow, white-knuckle slog to work tomorrow morning, but at least roads will just be wet.

NAM/WRF Temperature Outlook for 7 pm Wednesday. Note the surge of cold air (blue shaded area shows temperatures in the 30s) pushing southward out of Canada. Computer models are hinting at enough cold air aloft for a changeover to wet snow at the tail-end of the storm Wednesday afternoon or evening. I think roads will be wet (during the daylight hours) but during the evening hours, with a low sun angle and temperatures falling through the 30s I could see an inch or two piling up north, maybe a coating of slush into St. Cloud and the far northern suburbs of the Twin Cities. Something to look forward to.

GFS 120 Hour Snow Accumulation Outlook. Yes, the models are hinting at a couple inches of slush for far northeastern Minnesota - a little slush into central Minnesota, but MOST of the precipitation that falls tomorrow should fall as rain.

Naive optimist that I am, I still think this unusual cold snap (temperatures the first 19 days of October ran nearly 10 degrees colder than average in the Twin Cities) we'll make up for it with at least one, maybe two more spells of Indian Summer. I think there's a much better than 50-50 chance we'll see more 60s, I wouldn't be shocked to see one more day above 70 close to home. Yes, before long the weather pendulum will swing in the other (milder) direction, and you'll have one more chance to walk around the block in shirtsleeves. Ditch the shorts though - I think those blissful days are in our rear-view mirror.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Partly to mostly cloudy - but it should stay dry during the day. Winds: East 10-20. High: 53

Tonight: Cloudy, rain arriving late. Low: 41

Wednesday: Windy and raw with periods of rain, moderate at times. Turning colder by afternoon with falling temperatures - a brief period of wet snow is possible by late afternoon and evening, maybe a coating of slush on lawns and fields north and west of the Twin Cities. High: 46 (falling through the 30s late).

Thursday: More clouds than sun, chilly! High: 48

Friday: Breezy and cold for October - persistent clouds, but probably dry. High: near 50

Saturday: Intervals of sun, better day of the weekend. High: 51

Sunday: Getting cloudier, PM showers of rain (mixed with wet snow up north). High: 47

Monday: Partly sunny, more like autumn. High: 53

Halloween Outlook: Mostly cloudy and chilly with a few sprinkles or flurries. High: near 40 (Trick or Treat temperatures may be 32-35 F). Plan on a few extra layers under your kid's costumes - I have a feeling you're going to need them this year.

Fleeting Sunshine

Today: nicest day of the week? Sunshine lingers part of the day, temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday's 63 degree F. high.

Significant rain event likely later this week: .50 to 1" amounts possible, maybe 1.5" for parts of central Minnesota.

Temperatures warm enough aloft for mostly rain, although some wet snow may wrap into the storm circulation (northern MN) by late Thursday and Friday.

Next Saturday appears to be the nicer, drier day of the weekend with some sun, temperatures a few degrees cooler than average.

Drought conditions improving statewide thanks to a very wet October.

September: worldwide sea and land temperatures were the second warmest since 1880.

Arctic sea ice retreat: third greatest since measurements were first kept in 1979 (details below).

Hurricane Rick threatens the Cabo San Lucas area of Baja Mexico with hurricane-force winds by Tuesday.


Thanks to Veronika Pinke for this amazing reminder of how spectacular autumn can be....long shadows, low, scrappy clouds, refreshing intervals of refreshing sunshine and cooling winds. Oh, if only we could limit the amount of cooling. For more eye-opening photos from Ms. Pinke click here.

The United (Extreme) States of America. What a crazy week. For evidence please take a look at the map above, courtesy of Ham Weather, a division of WeatherNation. The USA is PLASTERED with icons showing only a week's worth of record lows, highs, snowfall and rainfall. To get the details (on a very cool, interactive map, click here, and put your computer's cursor over each dot to get specific information for each city).

Sunday was a sight for sore, slushy, partially-frostbitten eyes: 63 in the shade, about 5 degrees above average for a change. We hang onto a little warmth today, the weak remains of a cool frontal passage cooling us off a few degrees. But the sun should stream through, the weather a non-factor for any ball games and chores later today. Yes, a retreating ridge of high pressure hangs on long enough for us to salvage a fairly decent Monday. If you need dry weather take full advantage of today and Tuesday, because a fairly significant rain event is shaping up for the latter half of the week. A full-latitude trough of low pressure, a massive wrinkle of chilly air aloft, will advance east from the Rockies, sucking moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and hurling it north. As the air rises and cools water vapor will condense out into visible cloud droplets - a few countless trillion drops will coalesce (combine) to form raindrops, gravity eventually pulling them down the ground by Wednesday and Thursday. The computer models are fairly impressive: over an inch of rain may soak much of Minnesota, the heaviest rains possible from late Wednesday into Thursday. Each successive computer run has been placing the track of the low pressure system farther north, meaning warmer air should be able to penetrate far enough north for mostly rain. We can't rule out a changeover to wet, slushy snow, mainly over far northern and northwestern Minnesota, by Thursday, a sloppy inch or two not out of the question near Bemidji and Grand Rapids. It's WAY to early to even speculate about amounts, but rest assured: the vast majority of this week's upcoming "precipitation" should fall as rain - the way it should this time of year. The good news: rain should wind down by Friday, setting the stage for a pretty nice Saturday, with enough sun for low 50s - cooler than average by a few degrees, but not to hard to take with the sun bobbing in and out of scrappy stratocumulus clouds. More rain may streak in by late Sunday, the timing still very much up in the air. No question we've slid into a wetter weather pattern: good news for Minnesota's ongoing, perpetual drought. We're in much better shape than we were 2-3 weeks ago, no extreme drought anywhere to be found in the state (check out the latest Drought Monitor summary for Minnesota below). In short: October, the way it SHOULD be with glimpses of sun, and a good chance you'll be getting friendly with your favorite umbrella by midweek.



NAM Predicted Rainfall later this week. The heaviest streaks of rain (1 to 1.5") are forecast to set up from near Willmar northeast to St. Cloud and the Hinkley area. As the track of the storm shifts over time the heaviest rains may also shift - stay tuned as we try to fine-tune the timing and the amounts from the upcoming storm. Right now it appears the heaviest rains may fall from late Wednesday into Thursday.

The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the second warmest September on record, according to NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Based on records going back to 1880, the monthly National Climatic Data Center analysis is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides. NCDC scientists also reported that the average land surface temperature for September was the second warmest on record, behind 2005. Additionally, the global ocean surface temperature was tied for the fifth warmest on record for September. For more details click here to read a full report from NOAA.

On Sept 12, 2009, the extent of sea ice in the Arctic reached the third lowest level ever recorded since satellite records began in 1979. The National Snow and Ice Data Center estimates that the overall extent dropped to 5.1 million square kilometers, well below the average minimum extent of 6.71 million square kilometers (1979-2000). Only 2007 and 2008 have had lower ice extents. The small increase in 2009 was mostly due to ice spreading caused by strong polar winds. Ice concentration and thickness, however, have not increased, making predictions about a rebound in Arctic ice premature at this moment. (source: NOAA. For more details click here - it's worth it just to see the animation of sea ice over time, pretty fascinating - and vaguely alarming - stuff).

Hurricane Rick. For a time on Sunday sustained winds in this category 5 hurricane reached 160-180 mph, making it an extreme hurricane. Thankfully (for residents near Cabo San Lucas, Mexico) the storm is forecast to pass over colder Pacific Ocean water, the hurricane predicted to be a minimal category 1 hurricane by the time it passes near Cabo by midweek). Even so, the storm is capable of torrential rains, 80+ mph winds and a 4-8 foot storm surge by late Tuesday. Even though it's been a relatively quiet year in the Atlantic the Pacific has been a different story, with a number of severe hurricanes and typhoons (same thing as a hurricane, but they're called typhoons in the western Pacific).

Projected Path of Hurricane Rick. This experimental graphic, from Ham Weather, shows all the models taking Rick to the northeast, brushing the southernmost tip of Baja Mexico. Although the CMC model reduces the sustained winds to 60 mph by the time Rick brushes the Cabo San Lucas area, the GFDL model is more ominous, hinting that the hurricane may sustain it's intensity for a few more days. This discrepancy points out the inherent limitations of hurricane prediction: the models do a pretty good job predicting the TRACK of these massive storms, but forecasting INTENSITY is far more problematic.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Partly cloudy, breezy, a bit cooler than yesterday. Winds: North 5-15. High: 59

Tonight: A little starshine poking through early, then increasing clouds, chilly. Low: 44

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, chance of a shower late. High: 54

Wednesday: Rain likely, a cold wind. High: 50

Thursday: Rain, possibly heavy at times, raw. High: 47

Friday: Showers taper, possibly mixing with a little wet snow far north. High: 44

Saturday: Partly sunny, cool breeze (but dry). High: 51

Sunday: Sunny start, clouds increase, chance of showers late. High: 53