Tuesday, June 30, 2009

In Search of Summer

Yesterday was 1-2 degrees warmer in Fairbanks, Alaska than it was in the Twin Cities, where the mercury struggled to 70, 12 degrees cooler than "average", whatever that is.

Today should be brighter, with less wind, temperatures a few degrees milder, a big step in the right direction.

By Thursday it will feel like summer again with enough sunshine for highs near 80 degrees. You may even be tempted to fiddle around with the air conditioning.

Friday looks dry and lukewarm across most of the state, highs in the mid 70s to near 80, still a bit cooler than average.

The 4th of July holiday weekend still looks better than average, dry for most of the three days. Temperatures will hold in the 70s for highs, no sticky, steamy conditions this year. Although most computer models are hinting at dry weather, the most accurate simulation (WRF/NAM) is hinting at a few random thunderstorms Saturday. Yes, there is a fly in the weather ointment. Check below for more on the computer conflict, and what that might mean for your weekend plans. It's still too early to panic (or celebrate). Wednesday's model output should seal our fate - my hunch is that the forecast will crystallize later today. Stay tuned for more updates/details...




Tuesday's highs, courtesy of the Plymouth State Weather Center. Notice the Great Lakes, where highs held in the 50s and low 60s, more typical of late April than late June. Much of the rest of America is baking in the 90s, but we were lucky (?) to enjoy some free air conditioning.

The stubborn, unusually strong storm that has kept Minnesota in a cool, gusty stranglehold since the weekend will finally get an eastward nudge today, the clearing line will shift eastward, and sunshine should be on the increase statewide as wind finally begin to ease up. Thick clouds can make a 10-20 degree difference in temperature during the summer months, and with more sun the mercury will get a much-needed kick, meaning low 70s today, upper 70s to near 80 on Thursday. Thunderstorms will rumble across the central Plains, staying well south of Minnesota through the end of the week.

One computer model (NAM/WRF) is hinting at a few random T-storms marching across Minnesota early Monday, but the majority of computer simulations keep us basically dry, sunny and lukewarm through most of the holiday weekend. No sign of anything resembling hot weather anytime soon - we're expected mid to upper 70s Friday and Saturday, a few degrees cooler on Sunday as a weak bubble of high pressure remains in control. Can I PROMISE or GUARANTEE a perfect holiday weekend, weatherwise? No, it's still a little early - I want to see a couple more model runs before I bless the holiday forecast (no room for cockiness when a major holiday weekend is on the horizon!) Storms, given a choice, prefer to come on weekends, they get extra points when they foul up the 4th. So I'm still cautiously optimistic, but not yet overly confident. I'm fairly sure that temperatures will run a few degrees below average. But the latest model run has me a little spooked, printing out about .10" of rain late Friday night and Saturday morning. It may be a fluke, an aberration, a mistake, but I can't discount it altogether, not yet.

GFS Outlook for Saturday morning, July 4, showing dry weather across Minnesota, showers and storms staying to our south/west across the Dakotas and central Plains. Looking at this you'd be tempted to say, "great news, a dry, mild 4th of July is likely!" Not so fast...

WRF/NAM Outlook for the same period, Saturday morning at 7 am, July 4. Yes, this looks dramatically different than the GFS solution for the same time, showing bands of showers and T-storms, some heavy, tracking across Minnesota. On paper this model is the more reliable, accurate model, with more refined physics. That said, I sincerely hope it's dead wrong.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Partly sunny, less wind than yesterday. Winds: North 10-20. High: 73

Tonight: Clearing, cool for early July. Low: 55

Tomorrow: More sun, noticeably warmer. High: near 80

Friday (July 3): Mix of clouds and sun, stray T-storm or two far north. High: 78

Saturday (July 4): Partly sunny, slightly more humid. A T-storm or two can't be ruled out. High: 77


Monday: Plenty of mild sunshine. High: 79

Tuesday: Sun fades, clouds increase. Growing chance of late-day T-storms. High: 81
Sunday (July 5): More sun, probably dry. High: 75

Monday, June 29, 2009

Mother Nature Fireworks on the 4th?

My best childhood memories are those that include northern Minnesota lakes and holiday weekends with small town parades or festivals. The upcoming weekend is another one of those that will provide life-long memories for someone in your life, especially the young ones. I am especially appreciative to those in my family who introduced me to the "Great Outdoors" and the uniqueness of what Minnesota has to offer. My Grandfather, Vernon H. Nelson, a WWII Veteran and an avid outdoors man (who recently passed away) was always more than happy to bait my hook, net my fish and teach me the filleting secrets. It's hard to let go of family members when they mean so much to you, but I am forever be grateful for every moment I had with him. I hope that I may have the same connection with my children and grandchildren that my grandfather had with me. Ahh... Summer in Minnesota is great!

I am happy to report that the upcoming weekend is looking favorable for fun family get-togthers. There is a slight chance of rain over the holiday weekend, but odds favor a mostly dry and comfortable weekend!The image above shows the long range precipitation outlook from the GFS. Most importantly, it shows a "mainly dry" forecast for the 4th. Great news for parades and BBQ's!

This image shows the 5 day accumulated precipitation from Monday night thru Saturday night. Looking at the upper Midwest, the heaviest precipitation looks to stay southwest of Minnesota and Wisconsin. The latest run only show 0.10" of potential rain in the St. Cloud through Independence Day.


The image above is from the same long range model, but it show numerical outputs: Take a look at the red circles I've provided. It shows the expected high temperatures for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. In the green circles, we've got the percent probability of rain. The good news is that for those who like to spend time outdoors over the July 4th holiday weekend, we're not expecting any washouts and certainly nothing like what happened in 1999 in the BWCA.
By the way, this will be the 10th anniversary for the 1999 Boundary Waters Blowdown

Todd's Outlook:

Today: Mix of clouds and sun, still breezy. High: 76

Tonight: Partly cloudy with winds subsiding. comfortable sleeping, open the windows. Low: 55

Wednesday: Mix of clouds and sun, a bit milder. High: 74

Thursday: Partly cloudy, temperatures close to average. High: near 80

Friday: Slight chance of late-day thunder (more numerous storms west). High: 81

Saturday (4th): Morning clouds, risk of a shower. Plenty of sun by afternoon/evening. High: 80

Sunday: Cool, comfortable sunshine most of the day, probably dry. High: 79

Monday: Bright sun, light winds. High: 79

Free Air Conditioning

* 79 degree high Sunday, peak wind gust of 40 mph reported at Twin Cities International Airport.

* .53" of rain fell (officially) at MSP Saturday morning, but the Twin Cities area is still experiencing a 1"+ rainfall deficit, with rainfall amounts over the east metro running 1-3" below average since early April. The east metro is still in a severe drought.

* Windy again today, a few gusts over 30 mph, but rain should remain just to our east, over Wisconsin.

* Mostly-dry, uneventful week, low dew points will reduce the risk of anything severe.

* 4th of July Preview: mostly-dry, mostly-nice, but a few degrees cooler than average. Overall grade for the 3 day stretch: B+ (details below).


Peak wind gusts observed Sunday, courtesy of the Duluth office of the National Weather Service.

From space storms look like giant "comma-clouds", and it's pretty hard to miss the storm spinning up over western Ontario and the Great Lakes, the result of unusually chilly Canadian air spurting south of the border. That storm is nearly stationary, stuck, promising 2 more days of gusty winds (and even some thick cloud cover and rain as close as Wisconsin).

Courtesy of WSI, here are predicted wind speeds for 1 pm today. The yellow-shaded regions of central & eastern Minnesota, as well as much of Wisconsin, should see sustained winds over 20-25 mph much of the day, winds dropping off rapidly farther west across the Dakotas.

Today will be a marginal step in the right direction with SLIGHTLY less wind and enough sun for mid 70s, afternoon gusts still topping 25, even 30 mph. Not a great day for hang-gliding or high-rise window-washing. Patchy clouds may clip far eastern Minnesota, even a little rain from the Minnesota Arrowhead southward to Eau Claire, Menomonie and Wausau, Wisconsin. If you're driving east on I-94 toward Madison you will run into a cold rain and gusty winds.

Predicted weather map for 1 pm today, showing showery rains across the Great lakes and much of New England. Weather systems are in a temporary "blocking pattern", a holding pattern, some would say a rut, but at least we'll be far enough away from the storm to enjoy cool, comfortable sunshine, with humidity levels more like late September than the last few days of June.

Are you a white-knuckle flier? Before your next flight consider checking out this site, where you can get a prediction of expected turbulence at the altitudes most commercial jets fly, between 20,000 and 45,000 feet. This Aviation web site shows a variety of forecasts out into the future; late yesterday it was hinting at moderate turbulence over much of Minnesota (no kidding) with severe turbulence near Denver, which is really quite common over the central Rockies, the result of high-speed (jet stream) winds passing over the uneven peaks of the Colorado Rockies. That's why you often experience a pronounced BUMP on your flight to Vegas or L.A. a little less than halfway into the trip.

Yes, we have a wind theme going today - another NOAA graphic (constantly updating) that shows winds at ground level. The light-blue shaded area displays sustained winds over 15 knots, about 17 mph. To get the latest information click here and then click on "wind streamlines".

Now you know why most of the wind turbines being installed are all in southwestern Minnesota, the wind capital of the Land of 10,000 Weather Extremes. On average the wind blows much faster, and much more consistently south/west of the Minnesota River, especially on a bluff of higher land called the Buffalo Ridge near Lake Benton.

The USA has been called the Saudi Arabia of Wind (among other things) and we happen to live on the edge of the windiest part of our country, stretching from north Texas northward across the Plains into the Dakotas and southwestern Minnesota. The USA just passed Germany as the biggest producer of wind-energy in the world, but as of 2008 only 1% of our total electricity output was provided by wind-power (up from .9% in 1999). A Dept. of Energy study showed that, in theory, wind power from just Texas, Kansas and North Dakota could produce enough wind energy to power our entire nation. Of course there's the problem of modernizing the grid that carries electricity from these vast wind farms to major population centers on both coasts, considerable amounts of new infrastructure will have to be constructed to get the electricity to where it's needed the most, but the potential to harvest this (free) wind energy is enormous. For a great overview of wind power (and potential) check out this article in Wikipedia.

O.K. Please indulge me with just one more graphic. I thought this was (vaguely) interesting. You can see the month-by-month plot of average wind speeds for the USA (green line) vs. St. Cloud (red line). On average, in late June, our average wind speed (averaged over 24 hours/day) is about 10 mph, vs. the U.S. average of 8 mph - not a huge difference, granted. Minnesota tends to be far windier than the rest of the nation during the spring and fall season.

Sorry for the Wind 401 lecture/sermon, but since we're experiencing a spell of unusually windy weather (for summer, at least) I thought that was somewhat relevant. What you really want to know is: "Paul, will I need shorts and t-shirts for the 4th of July weekend, or a boat, flippers and scuba gear?" Great question. This does look like a fairly quiet, dry week of weather across the state, temperatures reaching 80, closer to average, by midweek. Here are a few headlines for the all-important holiday weekend weather:

Friday (July 3): Possibly the mildest day with highs near 80, maybe low 80s over southern Minnesota. A few T-storms may bubble up over far northern Minnesota late in the day ahead of a weak cool front forecast to drop out of Canada. Grade: B+

Saturday (July 4). Weak frontal passage early with a slight chance of a shower/sprinkle during the morning hours, but sun should be on the increase during the afternoon, with dry, more comfortable weather for evening fireworks. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Grade: B

Sunday: (July 5). A northwesterly flow should set up statewide, resulting in temperatures about 5 degrees cooler than average, mostly mid 70s, maybe a few degrees cooler far north. But the sun should be out most or even all of the day, coupled with low dew points, and a light breeze. Again, more like mid September than early July, but a little free air conditioning on the 5th of July has a nice ring. Grade: A- (the only reason I'm not giving it an A is because some will complain about the cool evening temperatures; lake water temperatures may be warmer than air temperatures Sunday!)

Paul's Outlook

Today: Plenty of sun, still windy, still comfortable with low humidity. Winds: NW 15-30. High: 75

Tonight: Clear and almost chilly for late June. Low: 56

Tuesday: Sunny, still breezy. High: 76

Wednesday: Mix of clouds and sun, a bit milder. High: 79

Thursday: Partly sunny, temperatures close to average. High: near 80

Friday: Hazy sun, slight chance of late-day thunder (more numerous storms far north). High: 82

Saturday (4th): Morning clouds, risk of a shower. Plenty of sun by afternoon/evening. High: 78

Sunday: Cool, comfortable sunshine most of the day, probably dry. High: 76

Monday: Bright sun, light winds. High: 75

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Gusty winds - a hint of September

Yesterday was a vivid reminder that if you blink, sneeze, turn away for just a minute or two, the weather will change on you. A wet start gave way to some badly needed sunshine by afternoon as a cool front swept across the state, a strong pressure gradient (a contrast in atmospheric pressure) whipped up winds as high as 60 mph, downing trees and powerlines from Madison and Clara City to Watertown and Waconia. These were straight-line winds, not from severe thunderstorms, fairly unusual for June. Today will be gusty and comfortably cool, more like late September than early June. Sustained winds will blow from the northwest at 20-30 with gusts as high as 40, even 50 mph this afternoon, when the atmosphere will be most unstable, allowing powerful jet stream winds to transport some of that momentum 5-7 miles overhead down to ground level. Expect a very choppy boat ride. The sun will be out during the morning and midday hours, but strong heating of the ground will whip up afternoon clouds, and the northern quarter of Minnesota may see rain showers popping up by mid/late afternoon, the best chance of a little rain coming north of Bemidji and Grand Rapids.

Predicted weather map for 1 pm today, showing an unusually strong, almost springlike storm over Ontario, Canada. Counterclockwise winds swirling around this low will pump cool, Canadian air south of the border, a strong contrast in atmospheric pressure "putting the squeeze" on the airmass overhead, whipping up 20-40 mph winds.

GFS Forecast for 7 pm Saturday, July 4th, showing rain along the Gulf coast, showers spreading into New England, but high pressure over southern Manitoba providing generally dry weather for Wisconsin, Minnesota and the Dakotas.

Temperatures will mellow later in the week as the Great Lakes cut-off low finally breaks down, and a more west-to-east wind returns, luring the mercury back up near 80 the latter half of the week. The latest (GFS) computer run is more optimistic about the 4th of July weekend, keeping us dry Friday, Saturday and Sunday with temperatures close to average, maybe a couple degrees cooler than "normal" for early July. The model is hinting at a few sprinkles, even a light shower Saturday morning as a weak, reinforcing cool front pushes south across the state. It's too early to celebrate - I want to see a number of additional computer runs before I stand on the table and shout for joy, but the trends are encouraging: no stalled fronts that would sustain steady/heavy rain, no severe weather (that I can see right now - the atmosphere probably too dry for mutating thunderstorms). In fact if you believe the computers (I want to believe, believe me) most of us won't see any significant rain until Tuesday or Wednesday of NEXT WEEK.

Today will offer up some free air conditioning statewide, and I may just take those people up on their suggestion to go fly a kite. They've been encouraging me to go jump in a lake, too. Maybe by the weekend I'll work up the nerve.
Forecast for 1 pm today, showing a "wind max" directly over Minnesota, with sustained winds of 20-30 mph. During the afternoon hours I wouldn't be surprised to see winds gusting over 40 mph. (from the northwest). Pass the dramamine.

Weather plot from yesterday showing temperature trends during the day (top graph). The second graphic shows wind speeds, gusts to 35 mph+ observed around 2 pm.

Paul's Outlook


Today: Unusually windy, comfortably cool. Sunshine this morning gives way to patchy clouds this afternoon. Showers are likely over far northern Minnesota later in the day. Winds: NW 20-30, gusts to 45 this afternoon. High: 76

Tonight: Clearing, cool for late June. Low: 54

Monday: Partly sunny, still brisk. Clouds and showers possible far east metro into Western Wisconsin. High: 74

Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy, showery from the St. Croix River Valley into Wisconsin. High: 76

Wednesday: A mix of clouds and sun, still dry. High: 79

Thursday: Warm sun, temperatures near normal again. High: 80

Friday (July 3): Partly to mostly sunny, quite pleasant. High: 78

Saturday (July 4): Morning clouds, passing sprinkle possible. PM sun, odds favor dry weather for evening fireworks. High: 77

Sunday (July 5): More sun, no threatening blobs on Doppler (ie. odds favor a dry day). High: 76

Monday (July 6): Sunshine, a few degrees milder. High: 79

Tuesday (July 7): Clouds increase, growing chance of showers, thunder. High: near 80

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Very strong winds whipping through the area

Update: 8:33 pm. The NWS has just issued a special weather statement for strong, potentially violent wind gusts associated with a band of showers/T-showers moving through the metro area. Sustained winds of 30-50 mph have been reported, a few gusts over 55 mph. To be considered severe a storms has to have 58 mph gusts, and a few towns in the metro area may experience brief wind gusts nearly that high between now and 10 pm. Winds should ease up a bit late tonight, but another very breezy, almost September-like day is on tap for Sunday with temperatures 5-10 degrees below average.

Sunny break, slight thunder threat by late evening

Saturday Update: 4:00 pm. Mother Nature is cutting us a break. After a gray, windy, soggy start, the day has gotten progressively better with time. Visible satellite imagery shows a swirl of dry, sun-filled air sweeping across much of central and eastern Minnesota, setting the stage for a few hours of blue sky through the dinner hour. But strong to severe storms are bubbling up across North Dakota, prevailing jet stream winds will push a few of these thunderheads into western, and then central MN by 6 or 7 pm, a tiny percentage of storms may survive the trip into the Twin Cities metro area after 7 or 8 pm, shortly before sunset. Although the greatest risk of large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be closer to the Dakota line, we can't rule out a few strong storms here well after the dinner hour. Stay alert, be ready to make a mad dash indoors early tonight (a car also provides a relatively safe place to ride out a storm). Sunday still looks cool, windy and drier overall, with morning sun giving way to a partly sunny afternoon. It will look and feel more like late September than late June.


Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for far northwestern MN until 9 pm Saturday evening.


Doppler Radar image showing strong thunderstorms west of Detroit Lakes and Fergus Falls - these storms may drift into the St. Cloud area by evening, a few packing hail and gusty winds.

Saturday Puddles, Cooler & Drier Sunday

There's a long list of things to do this weekend, parades, festivals of all types, and the big Great American Backyard Campout It will be seriously soggy this morning, I can't rule out some thunder and lightning through early afternoon hours, but the odds of severe weather are low (but not zero). The heaviest rains come during the morning and midday hours; a cool frontal passage turns winds at ground-level to the west and northwest this afternoon and skies will try to clear. There should be some sun during the afternoon hours. Bottom line: the later in the day your outdoor plans: the greater the chances you'll be ok. The ground may be soggy and muddy in spots, but the heaviest, most widespread rains should have pushed off to our east. We may even get a peek at the setting sun, but a nagging wrinkle of cold air floating above the Dakotas will probably ignite another late-day round of showers and storms, most likely over far western Minnesota. But sandwiched in-between the showers SHOULD be a relatively dry, partly sunny stretch during the mid and late afternoon hours.

4-Day Forecast Panel from Unisys showing today's showers and thunderstorms, followed by a clearing/drying trend Sunday (and a fairly strong pressure gradient for late June, implying gusty northwest winds tomorrow reaching speeds of 15-30 mph at times). For the very latest update click here.

Forecast map from WSI showing the bulk of today's showers/storms pushing toward Milwaukee and Chicago by 7 pm this evening, followed by a (temporary) clearing trend over much of Minnesota. A secondary band of showers and isolated T-storms forms over the Dakotas and the Red River Valley, the result of strong instability, meaning another chance of showers and possible thunder by the evening hours, especially over western and central counties of Minnesota. To get the latest 24 hour forecast map click here.

Sunday looks better, drier, but noticeably cooler as an almost September-like airmass drains south out of Canada. The sun should be out during the morning and midday hours, but I'm worried that lingering cold air aloft may cause clouds to increase during the afternoon - I can't even rule out a few late-day showers, most likely over the northern third of Minnesota (including the Brainerd and Alexandria areas). Better grab a light jacket or sweatshirt, daytime highs will hold in the 70s tomorrow, even some 60s far north, with lows tonight dipping into the 50s, possibly 40s north of Bemidji. Yep, we just careen from one extreme to the next. A tight pressure gradient should whip up a fairly strong northwest breeze Sunday, gusting over 20 mph at times, so expect a choppy ride if you're heading out on the boat.



** Weather Factoid. So far we've had 5 days at or above 90 in St. Cloud this year, which is more than usual as of June 26. We should have seen 3 90-degree days, to date. BTW during an average summer we "enjoy" an average of 13 days above 90, most come from mid July into the first half of August.

Monday will be brisk with more sun, less wind, and highs holding in the 60s north and 70s south. It will warm up next week, 80s returning by midweek, along with a few scattered showers by Wednesday and Thursday morning. Looking ahead we should dry out Thursday afternoon, setting the stage for a fairly nice START to the 4th of July holiday weekend.

"The weather better be nice for the 4th", my wife growled at me yesterday. She had a scowl on her face, watching me pour over the computer print-outs and computer projections. She was seriously pissed at me! "I'm just the messenger honey, I don't make this stuff," I protested. She shook her head. "I don't believe you. Just tell me what I want to hear, ok?" Great. This is what I deal with on a daily basis, even from my wife and 2 boys. You, the dear reader, know full well that we have nothing to do with the weather, right? And no, my latest company has nothing to do with weather-control. That's still science fiction (thank God). We won't be able to nudge Mother Nature in any meaningful way, not in our lifetime. We have enough trouble just predicting the state of the weather, much less controlling it. That said, here are my initial thoughts for the all-important holiday weekend weather.

4th of July Preview

* Friday (July 3) looks like the sunniest, driest day with highs near 80. Not perfect, but better than average. See if you can get up to the cabin Thursday, to savor what should be the best day of the bunch.

* An approaching warm front will increase the chance of scattered showers and T-storms Saturday, the 4th. I do not think it will be an all-day rain, nor will it be a perfect, sun-soaking, cloudless day either. Most of the day will probably be dry, but clouds and random T-storms prowling the state will keep temperatures a bit cooler, probably in the 75-80 range. The best chance of showers/storms will probably come over western and northern Minnesota.

* Sunday appears to be the wettest day right now, long-range guidance (which is admittedly shaky this far out) hinting at a frontal boundary temporarily stalling out over central Minnesota, which could mean heavier, steadier rains and embedded T-storms much of the day. Too early to panic, and future models could change (for the better). Temperatures may hold in the 70s central and south, possibly 60s north, but there's a slight chance that the weather may be drier and sunnier the farther north you go, north of Brainerd and Mille Lacs. It's just too early to try and nail any details this far out. Stating the obvious: we'll be watching this closely, hoping for the best. And honey, if you're reading this, my dear bride of 25 years (who's counting?) I will be sleeping with one eye open.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Showers and a few heavy thunderstorms, giving way to intervals of sun this afternoon. Winds: SW/NW 10-15. High: near 80

Tonight: Evening shower possible, best chance west of the Twin Cities. Breezy and cooler overnight. Low: 59

Sunday: Sunny start, breezy, cooler. Clouds increase during the afternoon. Late-day shower can't be entirely ruled out. Winds: NW 10-20, gusts to 25. High: 76

Monday: More sun, less wind, comfortably cool. High: 72

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, milder. High: 76

Wednesday: Clouds increase, risk of a passing shower or thundershower. High: 81

Thursday: Increasingly sunny and mild, a pleasant day. High: 83

Friday (July 3): Plenty of sun, probably the nicest day of the holiday weekend. High: 82

Saturday (July 4): Less sun, unsettled, more humid. Couple hours of showers, possible T-storms. High: near 80

Sunday (July 5): Mostly cloudy, a period of steadier rain can't be ruled out - probably the wettest day of the weekend. High: 76

Friday, June 26, 2009

Weekend Verdict: not a total wash-out

Do you realize that half the weekends since May 1 have been dry in the Twin Cities, no rain reported either Saturday or Sunday? The perception is that it's rained every single weekend, but that's just not the case. Most of May was too cool to really enjoy the cabin though. Last weekend was pretty close to perfect up north; the upcoming weekend won't be as spectacular - plan your outdoor events for Saturday afternoon/evening or Sunday and you should be fine. Most of the outdoor events, concerts/festivities for Sauk Rapids River Days and St. Cloud's Granite City Days should be ok, especially after lunchtime tomorrow. And don't worry about events this evening. I still think any T-storms should hold off until after sunset tonight.

Weekend Headlines


* 90 degree high Thursday in the Twin Cities. Today: a couple degrees hotter.

* Slight severe storm risk over western half of Minnesota: best chance of strong/severe T-storms comes tonight.

* Rainfall amounts range from .25 to .50" Friday night into Saturday morning.

* Drying out Saturday afternoon as skies clear from west to east.

* Light jacket/sweatshirt weather up north Saturday and Sunday night, lows dip close to 50.

* Sunday: better day with a sunny start, becoming partly sunny by afternoon - late day shower possible from Duluth south to the Twin Cities and the St. Croix River Valley. Sunday will feel more like mid/late September with highs holding in the 70s....even some 60s far northern MN.

4th of July Preview

* Information is still sketchy, the computer models a bit contradictory. Right now Friday looks like the warmest day: highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

* Friday and Saturday (4th) appear to be the 2 nicest days for outdoor plans with plenty of sun both days, Saturday highs: 75-80 F. High pressure remains in control of our weather both days.

* Sunday: more 70s, growing chance of showers and T-storms, best chance mid/late afternoon. A storm approaching from the west pushes the heaviest showers/storms into northern/western MN, eastern MN/Wisconsin may stay dry much of the day.


Paul's Outlook

Today: Sunny, a little more humid, bordering on HOT by afternoon. Winds: SE 5-12. High: near 90

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely, some strong to severe. Low: 66

Saturday: Wet start, showers taper during the morning. Some PM sun, breezy, turning cooler. Winds: W/NW 10-20. High: near 80

Saturday night: Clearing and cooler, light jacket weather late. Low: 56

Sunday: Sunny morning and midday hours. Clouds slowly increase PM hours. A better day for outdoor plans. Winds: NW 10-20, gusts close to 25. High: 75

Monday: Mostly sunny and comfortable - low humidity. High: 77

Tuesday: Sunny and warmer. High: 83

Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms around. High: 78

Thursday: More sun, pleasantly mild. High: 82

Friday (July 3). Mostly sunny, a bit cooler. High: 78

Saturday (July 4). Lingering sun, low humidity, quite comfortable. Probably dry for fireworks Saturday evening. High: 75

Sunday (July 5): More clouds, growing risk of showers/T-storms. High: 74



SPC Outlook for 7 am today through 7 am Saturday, showing a slight risk of isolated severe storms over western and central Minnesota. Most of the storms should rumble in tonight, probably after dark; a very tiny percentage capable of large hail and damaging straight-line winds.

Latest Drought Monitor for Minnesota, showing drier than average conditions over the southern half of Minnesota. East central and southeastern counties are still in a moderate/severe drought, the worst conditions over the eastern suburbs of the Twin Cities.

WRF/NAM Forecast for 7 am Saturday morning, showing heavy showers/storms pushing across the state. The heaviest rains are forecast for central and northern counties. There is a VERY good chance we'll all wake up to puddles Saturday morning, but skies should brighten by midday, with some PM sun and a drier, less humid northwest breeze kicking in after lunch.

WRF/NAM Outlook for 7 am Sunday, showing dry weather statewide. The lines crossing Minnesota are predicted isobars, lines of constant atmospheric pressure, implying a northwest breeze. The closer isobars are spaced together, the stronger the winds blowing at the surface. Sunday winds will blow from the northwest at 10-20 mph with higher gusts. Lingering cold air aloft may spark patchy PM clouds, especially over the lakes district up north. A few instability showers are possible far eastern MN by late afternoon, from the MN Arrowhead south to Taylor's Falls, the Twin Cities and St. Croix river valley. Even so, the vast majority of the day should be dry.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Early morning boomers

Update 4:31 am (way too darn early). Doppler shows very strong thunderstorms forming along a stagnant boundary snaking across central Minnesota from Alexandria to St. Cloud to the Twin Cities, a strong upper-level feature irritating this mini-front draped right over our heads. The result: frequent lightning, downpours, even some marble-size hail through the early morning hours, capable of minor street flooding - the morning commute may be a real mess. The good news: after these strong/severe storms pass the stage should be set for sunshine most of the day; things WILL settle down by mid/late morning.



Weather Headlines

* Overall: fine weekend weather for the Great American Backyard Campout (except for a wet start Saturday morning).

* Early-AM storms capable of downpours, vivid lightning, even small hail. Most storms move out of the metro by mid morning.

* 90 possible today, low 90s likely tomorrow.

* Dew points in the upper 50s today, making it feel a little more comfortable out there, in spite of the heat.

* Round of heavy showers/T-storms late Friday, Friday night, lingering into a portion of Saturday morning; some half inch rainfall amounts possible.

* Saturday: wet start, sunny finish, skies slowly clear out during the PM hours behind a cool front.

* Sunday: hints of September with bright sun, a few PM clouds, and a fresh northwest breeze at 10-20. Temperatures hold in the 70s for highs, maybe some 60s far northern MN.

* Cooler start to next week, but warming up nicely in time for the 4th of July weekend.


Paul's Outlook

Today: Early morning thunderstorms, some strong/severe. Drying out later this morning. Bright sun, very warm and dry midday and afternoon. Winds: NW 10-15. High: near 90

Tonight: Clear and comfortable. Low: 63

Friday: Hazy sun, more humid, hot by afternoon. Strong T-storms possible Friday night. High: 93

Saturday: Wet start with showers tapering in the morning. Slow afternoon clearing. Winds: SW/NW 10-20. High: 82

Sunday: Sunshine much of the day, a cool breeze. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 78 (low 70s north).

Monday: Sunny and pleasant. High: 82

Tuesday: Sun gives way to increasing clouds. High: 85

Wednesday: Showers, possible thunder. High: 79

Thursday: A mix of clouds and sun, noticeably cooler. High: 77

4-Panel (GFS) computer model showing showers/storms Saturday morning, followed by a clearing trend Saturday PM, and dry weather Sunday (with a cool, refreshing northwest wind flow). To see the latest, greatest computer run from Unisys, click here.


Summer is the peak season for one of the nation's deadliest weather phenomena— lightning. But don't be fooled, lightning strikes yearround. The goal of this Website is to safeguard U.S. residents from lightning. In the United States, an average of 62 people are killed each year by lightning:

The reported number of injuries is likely far lower than the actual total number because many people do not seek help or doctors do not record it as a lightning injury. People struck by lightning suffer from a variety of long-term, debilitating symptoms, including memory loss, attention deficits, sleep disorders, numbness, dizziness, stiffness in joints, irritability, fatigue, weakness, muscle spasms, depression, and an inability to sit for long.

Lightning is a serious danger. Through this site we hope you'll learn more about lightning risks and how to protect yourself, your loved ones and your belongings. As a start, get an overview of Lightning Safety or stop by our comprehensive page of handouts, brochures, links and more.

For more information on lightning, click over the the National Weather Service's excellent web site right here.

Warm sunshine, weekend cool front

Update 4:31 am (way too darn early). Doppler shows very strong thunderstorms forming along a stagnant boundary snaking across central Minnesota from Alexandria to St. Cloud to the Twin Cities, a strong upper-level feature irritating this mini-front draped right over our heads. The result: frequent lightning, downpours, even some marble-size hail through the early morning hours, capable of minor street flooding - the morning commute may be a real mess. The good news: after these strong/severe storms pass the stage should be set for sunshine most of the day; things WILL settle down by mid/late morning.



Weather Headlines

* Overall: fine weekend weather for the Great American Backyard Campout (except for a wet start Saturday morning).

* Early-AM storms capable of downpours, vivid lightning, even small hail. Most storms move out of the metro by mid morning.

* 90 possible today, low 90s likely tomorrow.

* Dew points in the upper 50s today, making it feel a little more comfortable out there, in spite of the heat.

* Round of heavy showers/T-storms late Friday, Friday night, lingering into a portion of Saturday morning; some half inch rainfall amounts possible.

* Saturday: wet start, sunny finish, skies slowly clear out during the PM hours behind a cool front.

* Sunday: hints of September with bright sun, a few PM clouds, and a fresh northwest breeze at 10-20. Temperatures hold in the 70s for highs, maybe some 60s far northern MN.

* Cooler start to next week, but warming up nicely in time for the 4th of July weekend.


Paul's Outlook

Today: Early morning thunderstorms, some strong/severe. Drying out later this morning. Bright sun, very warm and dry midday and afternoon. Winds: NW 10-15. High: near 90

Tonight: Clear and comfortable. Low: 63

Friday: Hazy sun, more humid, hot by afternoon. Strong T-storms possible Friday night. High: 93

Saturday: Wet start with showers tapering in the morning. Slow afternoon clearing. Winds: SW/NW 10-20. High: 82

Sunday: Sunshine much of the day, a cool breeze. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 78 (low 70s north).

Monday: Sunny and pleasant. High: 82

Tuesday: Sun gives way to increasing clouds. High: 85

Wednesday: Showers, possible thunder. High: 79

Thursday: A mix of clouds and sun, noticeably cooler. High: 77

4-Panel (GFS) computer model showing showers/storms Saturday morning, followed by a clearing trend Saturday PM, and dry weather Sunday (with a cool, refreshing northwest wind flow). To see the latest, greatest computer run from Unisys, click here.


Summer is the peak season for one of the nation's deadliest weather phenomena— lightning. But don't be fooled, lightning strikes yearround. The goal of this Website is to safeguard U.S. residents from lightning. In the United States, an average of 62 people are killed each year by lightning:

The reported number of injuries is likely far lower than the actual total number because many people do not seek help or doctors do not record it as a lightning injury. People struck by lightning suffer from a variety of long-term, debilitating symptoms, including memory loss, attention deficits, sleep disorders, numbness, dizziness, stiffness in joints, irritability, fatigue, weakness, muscle spasms, depression, and an inability to sit for long.

Lightning is a serious danger. Through this site we hope you'll learn more about lightning risks and how to protect yourself, your loved ones and your belongings. As a start, get an overview of Lightning Safety or stop by our comprehensive page of handouts, brochures, links and more.

For more information on lightning, click over the the National Weather Service's excellent web site right here.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Strong/severe storm risk returns

Update: 3:30 pm. Doppler shows another line of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms entering western and central Minnesota, moving rapidly east/southeast at 30 mph. At that speed storms may reach St. Cloud by 4:30 to 5:00 pm, into the Twin Cities by 5:30 to 6:00 pm. There is a potential for marble to ping pong size hail and wind gusts over 60 mph. Remember, any hail larger than 1" in diameter (quarter-size) is considered severe; that, or winds greater than 58 mph. Although an isolated tornado can't be ruled out I think the main threat this afternoon will be strong straight-line winds and large hail. Skies clear later this evening, behind the storms, setting the stage of a sunny, warm (and quiet) Thursday.



Latest from SPC, which is carefully monitoring the area above: a severe storm watch may be issued shortly, including St. Cloud and the western suburbs of the Twin Cities. Stay tuned...

Close Encounter of the Damp Kind

Update: 10:47 am. The Twin Cities are on the northern fringe of a broad area of showers and embedded thunderstorms, occasional rain (and a few lightning strikes) are likely through midday, but it still looks like the brunt of the rain will pass off south of town over the next few hours. With the clouds and more of a west/northwest breeze temperatures today should be considerably cooler than yesterday, when we "enjoyed" 95 degrees. With the clouds and rain readings may hold in the 70s today, and in spite of a threatening sky your late afternoon/evening activities are not in grave danger - I do expect a gradual drying trend this afternoon with some late afternoon clearing - you may get a peek at the setting sun at 9:03 pm.

Latest visible satellite image showing a thick shield of clouds (anvil tops of T-storms passing south of the Twin Cities). But the northwestern half of Minnesota is bathed in sunshine, and most of the day should be dry north of a line from Willmar to Albertville and Taylor's Falls.

Breathing Easier - Nagging Storms Nearby

Update: 9:00 am. Doppler showers an impressive cluster of showers and heavier thunderstorms, some packing some hail, spreading in from the south and west. The best chance of rain will come south of the Twin Cities today, but most suburbs will see a few hours of rain, and a heavier storm can't be ruled out, although severe weather is most likely near the Iowa border. It will be significantly cooler, almost 15 degrees cooler than yesterday. Rainfall amounts today range from .05" northern suburbs to as much as .25"+ south metro. Pea-size hail can't be ruled out.


I won't ask if yesterday was "hot enough for you." I think I no the answer. For a few hours it felt like a getaway to Venus, without the space suit. Heat advisories were posted for much of Minnesota yesterday, a rare Excessive Heat Warning issued for the immediate Twin Cities for a combination of heat and humidity that could make it feel as hot as 105. The midday storms, clouds kept daytime highs a few degrees cooler than they would have been, MSP saw a high of 95, just 4 degrees shy of an all-time record. St. Cloud sampled 91 degrees, just about 13 degrees above normal for June 23. In the winter we torment you with the wind chill, now we have the "Heat Index" to throw around, sometimes called "Humature". The concept behind this is really quite simple: on days when the dew point and relative humidity are high, with more water in the air, your body can't cool itself naturally via perspiration. When you step out of the shower and feel chilled, it's because water is evaporating off your skin. Evaporation leads to cooling. But when the air is thick with moisture sweat can't evaporate nearly as efficiently, and its much easier to overheat.

Today will be a big step in the right direction with a noticeable drop in temperature and humidity, temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday with a little less water in the air. Yesterday's frontal boundary has stalled just to our south, draped from east to west across Iowa, close enough to spark more heavy/severe showers/storms across southern Minnesota, from the Twin Cities south to the Iowa border. We can't rule out a few hours of rain today, computer models print out less than .05" of rain - but I could see more than that over the southern suburbs.

Thursday looks pretty spectacular with warm sun, lake-worthy highs in the 80s. The more I stare at the models (weather models, by the way) the more I think we'll top 90 again Friday before the next front arrives with heavy/severe showers and thunderstorms late Friday and Friday night. The GFS model keeps showers and storms across much of Minnesota Saturday, at least through mid afternoon. Some clearing is possible by mid or late afternoon, from west to east, so the day won't be a total loss, but Sunday still appears to be the nicer, drier, sunnier day, better to hang out up at the lake.

You may want to take a sweatshirt up to the cabin though. A cooler northwesterly wind puffing behind Saturday's frontal passage will keep highs in the 70s up north, Sunday night lows will easily dip into the 50s, maybe even some 40s far north. Sunday may look and feel more like mid or late September, with clouds and a few showers lingering over the Minnesota Arrowhead.

Not a perfect weekend, no, but we've seen worse. I don't see any steady, sustained rain (a few hours of showers and storms, when it does rain it could come down pretty hard). Sunday we'll enjoy a little free air conditioning, with clouds building in the afternoon. The best time to get out this weekend may be late in the day Saturday, and the morning and midday hours Sunday. Just a semi-educated hunch. We'll keep fine-tuning the all-important weekend forecast and hope the outlook brightens as new data arrives. It's a distinct possibility!

SPC Outlook for Wednesday, showing a slight threat of isolated severe storms over far southern Minnesota, along the Iowa border. The biggest risk: large hail and potentially damaging, straight-line winds.


GFS Computer model valid 7 am Saturday morning, showing heavy showers and storms pushing into western and central Minnesota ahead of a fairly vigorous cool front. Skies should clear from west to east during the afternoon - you should be able to salvage the late afternoon and evening hours as winds shift around to the northwest, pushing drier, cooler air back into Minnesota.Grab my hand as we tip-toe out on a big, shaky limb. Here is the 10-Day Outlook (GFS), hinting at a wet, thundery start to the big holiday weekend. To be brutally honest the 4th is still too far away to even try to get specific, but if I had to place a bet I'd go relatively cool (highs mostly in the 70s) with the best chance of showers/storms coming Friday the 3rd, with a few late-day, instability shower or thundershowers possible on the 4th. The biggest weekend of summer - what on earth can possibly go wrong?

Ugh.

Weather Headlines

* No rain from Tuesday storms in St. Cloud, Twin Cities sees a trace of rain, with .42" at Brainerd.

* 91 in St. Cloud, 95 Tuesday in the Twin Cities, 4 degrees shy of a record. Average high now is around 79.

* Best chance of showers/storms today from the Twin Cities south to the Iowa border, temperatures run a good 10+ degrees cooler than yesterday.

* Thursday: driest day in sight. Weak bubble of high pressure treats us to blue sky and 80s.

* Friday heat: low 90s possible, another round of strong/severe T-storms possible late.

* Saturday: probably the wetter day of the weekend with a few hours of showers/storms as a cool front passes overhead.

* Sunday: drier but cooler, highs hold in the 70s with a fresh, northwest breeze. Clouds build in the afternoon, showers linger much of the day north/east of Grand Rapids and Duluth.

* Cooler trend next week with a series of weak cool fronts, keeping highs mostly in the 70s and low 80s - probably no extreme heat next week.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Mostly cloudy and cooler with showers and thunderstorms, heaviest south of the Twin Cities...few hours of rain, especially south metro. Winds: NW 5-15. High: 81

Tonight: Evening showers far south, otherwise clearing skies. Low: 61

Thursday: Warm sun, dry and pleasant. High: 88

Friday: Hot and humid again. Strong T-storms possible by late afternoon. High: 92

Saturday: Unsettled with lot's of clouds, a few hours of showers and T-storms expected. High: 82

Sunday: Sunnier, but cooler and breezy. Clouds increase during the afternoon - touch of September in the air. High: 75

Monday: Sunny and pleasant. High: 79

Tuesday: Clouds increase, growing chance of a shower or T-storm. High: 78

Breathing Easier - Weekend Preview

I won't ask if yesterday was "hot enough for you." I think I no the answer. For a few hours it felt like a getaway to Venus, without the space suit. Heat advisories were posted for much of Minnesota yesterday, a rare Excessive Heat Warning issued for the immediate Twin Cities for a combination of heat and humidity that could make it feel as hot as 105. The midday storms, clouds kept daytime highs a few degrees cooler than they would have been, MSP saw a high of 95, just 4 degrees shy of an all-time record. St. Cloud sampled 91 degrees, just about 13 degrees above normal for June 23. In the winter we torment you with the wind chill, now we have the "Heat Index" to throw around, sometimes called "Humature". The concept behind this is really quite simple: on days when the dew point and relative humidity are high, with more water in the air, your body can't cool itself naturally via perspiration. When you step out of the shower and feel chilled, it's because water is evaporating off your skin. Evaporation leads to cooling. But when the air is thick with moisture sweat can't evaporate nearly as efficiently, and its much easier to overheat.

Today will be a big step in the right direction with a noticeable drop in temperature and humidity, temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday with a little less water in the air. Yesterday's frontal boundary has stalled just to our south, draped from east to west across Iowa, close enough to spark more heavy/severe showers/storms across far southern Minnesota, most of the rain staying south of the Minnesota River. We can't rule out a stray, passing shower or thundershower today, but computer models print out less than .05" of rain - odds favor dry weather most of the day.

Thursday looks pretty spectacular with warm sun, lake-worthy highs in the 80s. The more I stare at the models (weather models, by the way) the more I think we'll top 90 again Friday before the next front arrives with heavy/severe showers and thunderstorms late Friday and Friday night. The GFS model keeps showers and storms across much of Minnesota Saturday, at least through mid afternoon. Some clearing is possible by mid or late afternoon, from west to east, so the day won't be a total loss, but Sunday still appears to be the nicer, drier, sunnier day, better to hang out up at the lake.

You may want to take a sweatshirt up to the cabin though. A cooler northwesterly wind puffing behind Saturday's frontal passage will keep highs in the 70s up north, Sunday night lows will easily dip into the 50s, maybe even some 40s far north. Sunday may look and feel more like mid or late September, with clouds and a few showers lingering over the Minnesota Arrowhead.

Not a perfect weekend, no, but we've seen worse. I don't see any steady, sustained rain (a few hours of showers and storms, when it does rain it could come down pretty hard). Sunday we'll enjoy a little free air conditioning, with clouds building in the afternoon. The best time to get out this weekend may be late in the day Saturday, and the morning and midday hours Sunday. Just a semi-educated hunch. We'll keep fine-tuning the all-important weekend forecast and hope the outlook brightens as new data arrives. It's a distinct possibility!

SPC Outlook for Wednesday, showing a slight threat of isolated severe storms over far southern Minnesota, along the Iowa border. The biggest risk: large hail and potentially damaging, straight-line winds.


GFS Computer model valid 7 am Saturday morning, showing heavy showers and storms pushing into western and central Minnesota ahead of a fairly vigorous cool front. Skies should clear from west to east during the afternoon - you should be able to salvage the late afternoon and evening hours as winds shift around to the northwest, pushing drier, cooler air back into Minnesota.Grab my hand as we tip-toe out on a big, shaky limb. Here is the 10-Day Outlook (GFS), hinting at a wet, thundery start to the big holiday weekend. To be brutally honest the 4th is still too far away to even try to get specific, but if I had to place a bet I'd go relatively cool (highs mostly in the 70s) with the best chance of showers/storms coming Friday the 3rd, with a few late-day, instability shower or thundershowers possible on the 4th. The biggest weekend of summer - what on earth can possibly go wrong?

Ugh.

Weather Headlines

* No rain from Tuesday storms in St. Cloud, Twin Cities sees a trace of rain, with .42" at Brainerd.

* 91 in St. Cloud, 95 Tuesday in the Twin Cities, 4 degrees shy of a record. Average high now is around 79.

* Best chance of showers/storms today over far southern Minnesota, temperatures run a good 10+ degrees cooler than yesterday.

* Thursday: driest day in sight. Weak bubble of high pressure treats us to blue sky and 80s.

* Friday heat: low 90s possible, another round of strong/severe T-storms possible late.

* Saturday: probably the wetter day of the weekend with a few hours of showers/storms as a cool front passes overhead.

* Sunday: drier but cooler, highs hold in the 70s with a fresh, northwest breeze. Clouds build in the afternoon, showers linger much of the day north/east of Grand Rapids and Duluth.

* Cooler trend next week with a series of weak cool fronts, keeping highs mostly in the 70s and low 80s - probably no extreme heat next week.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Partly sunny, cooler and less humid than yesterday. Slight chance of a shower or T-storm. Much better chance of T-storms far southern Minnesota. Winds: NW 5-15. High: 84

Tonight: Evening showers far south, otherwise clearing skies. Low: 61

Thursday: Warm sun, dry and pleasant. High: 88

Friday: Hot and humid again. Strong T-storms possible by late afternoon. High: 92

Saturday: Unsettled with lot's of clouds, a few hours of showers and T-storms expected. High: 82

Sunday: Sunnier, but cooler and breezy. Clouds increase during the afternoon - touch of September in the air. High: 75

Monday: Sunny and pleasant. High: 79

Tuesday: Clouds increase, growing chance of a shower or T-storm. High: 78