Sunday, August 30, 2009

Frosty rumors up north

* Suburbs waking up to the 30s for the first time since May 16! I know, it's way too early to be tossing around the F-word. Frost in late August? Keep in mind that "meteorological summer", marking what is historically the warmest 90 days of the year - think of this as REAL summer, goes from June 1 to September 1. As far as the atmosphere is concerned true autumn really kicks off tomorrow. Gazing at the mercury in my back yard thermometer - no, better yet trying to FIND the mercury in my back yard thermometer this morning that's not hard to believe!

No, this doesn't (necessarily) mean a shorter autumn, an earlier winter, a more severe winter, or that health care reform will become the law of the land. It is what it is - a fluke, an aberration, another odd little weather gyration. We've been seeing a lot of those lately, haven't we?

No, it's not your imagination.

* 27 F. at Embarrass, MN Sunday morning - coldest in the state (possibly the coldest anywhere in the lower 48 states!) 32 degree low at International Falls, Ely, Silver Bay and Crane Lake.

* 36 F. reported Sunday morning at Little Falls and Benson, 35 at Hayward, Wisconsin.

* Frost advisory in effect north/east of Lake Mille Lacs during the early morning hours. Combination of dry, Canadian air, clear skies and diminishing winds should create ideal conditions for a rare, late-summer frost for parts of northeastern MN and northern Wisconsin.

Graphic courtesy of the Twin Cities National Weather Service.

* Monday morning record low of 40 degrees in the Twin Cities in danger of being broken.

* St. Cloud record for August 31: 33 F. set in 1974

* 62 degree "high" at Eau Claire, WI Saturday - sets a record for the coolest August 29 on record.

* 68 degree high at MSP Sunday, 69 in St. Cloud.

* Dry week shaping up - showers/T-storms remain just south and west of Minnesota through the period.

* It's early but right now next Saturday appears to be the best outdoor day of the Labor Day weekend. Scattered showers and T-storms likely Sunday and Monday, not a steady rain, but a few hours of showers possible each day.

* Highs mostly in the mid to upper 70s every day this week, near 80 by the weekend (with higher humidity levels).

Paul's Outlook


Today: Frosty start north/east of Lake Mille Lacs. Plenty of sun, a bit milder. Winds: S 5-10. High: 75

Tonight: Mostly clear, still cool. Low: 51

Tuesday: Warm sun, hard to concentrate. High: 77

Wednesday: Dim sun through high clouds, showers/storms should stay south/west of the area. High: 76

Thursday: Mostly sunny, still dry. High: 78

Friday: Great start to the holiday weekend - generous sunshine. High: 81

Saturday: Partly cloudy, possibly the nicest outdoor day. High: near 80

Sunday: More clouds, a few scattered showers/T-storms. High: 78

Monday (Labor Day): Intervals of sun, sticky, a few more showers/storms. High: 79

Late summer frost advisory

* 27 F. at Embarrass, MN Sunday morning - coldest in the state (possibly the coldest anywhere in the lower 48 states!) 32 degree low at International Falls, Ely, Silver Bay and Crane Lake.

* 36 F. reported Sunday morning at Little Falls and Benson, 35 at Hayward, Wisconsin.

* Frost advisory in effect north/east of Lake Mille Lacs for Sunday night. Combination of dry, Canadian air, clear skies and diminishing winds should create ideal conditions for a rare, late-summer frost for parts of northeastern MN and northern Wisconsin.

* Monday morning record low of 40 degrees in the Twin Cities in danger of being broken.

* St. Cloud record for August 31: 33 F. set in 1974

* 62 degree "high" at Eau Claire, WI Saturday - sets a record for the coolest August 29 on record.

Graphic courtesy of the Twin Cities National Weather Service

* Dry week shaping up - showers/T-storms remain just south and west of Minnesota through the period.

* It's early but right now next Saturday appears to be the best outdoor day of the Labor Day weekend. Scattered showers and T-storms likely Sunday and Monday, not a steady rain, but a few hours of showers possible each day.

* Highs mostly in the mid to upper 70s every day this week, near 80 by the weekend (with higher humidity levels).

Paul's Outlook

Today: Plenty of sun, light winds, low humidity. Winds: NW 5-10. High: near 70

Tonight: Clear, near-record chill - patchy frost for parts of northeastern MN. Low: 42

Monday: Plenty of sun, a bit milder. High: 74

Tuesday: Warm sun, hard to concentrate. High: 77

Wednesday: Dim sun through high clouds, showers/storms should stay south/west of the area. High: 76

Thursday: Mostly sunny, still dry. High: 78

Friday: Great start to the holiday weekend - generous sunshine. High: 81

Saturday: Partly cloudy, possibly the nicest outdoor day. High: near 80

Sunday: More clouds, a few scattered showers/T-storms. High: 78

Monday (Labor Day): Intervals of sun, sticky, a few more showers/storms. High: 79

Saturday, August 29, 2009

Sweatshirt on a Stick

I know - it's a little cool for late August. I won't have to recite the windchill reading; suffice to say you may want to grab a light jacket or sweatshirt before heading out the door this weekend. A crisp, Canadian breeze will make it a bit harder to find the mercury in your backyard thermometer, daytime highs stuck in the 60s across much of Minnesota - computer models hinting at some 50-degree highs over far eastern MN and Wisconsin later today.

Sunday still appears to be the nicer day of the weekend, less wind (as high pressure drifts directly over our heads) and more sunshine - fewer instability cumulus clouds puffing up during the PM hours, afternoon highs well up into the 60s. Given a choice in the matter I would plan my State Fair Adventure for Sunday.

WRF/NMM Temperatures for 7 pm this evening. It gets milder the farther west you travel across Minnesota - check out the big swirl of 50-degree readings over Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota.

Frost Update. Try not to panic. Just seeing the F-word in August is enough to send a small percentage of Minnesotans into convulsive, screaming fits. "Frost in late August - what does that mean for October?" I guess I'm not shocked, we've had a tentative summer, July and August running cooler than average - fewer 90 degree days, not nearly as many sweaty, sticky, 70-degree dew point days (which I'm just fine with, btw). The WRF/NMM model is still hinting at some 30-degree lows Sunday morning, mainly north, toward Sandstone and Hinckley, and just south/east, toward Hastings, Cannon Falls and Northfield. I'm a little more inclined to believe that some of the coldest nooks and crannies of northeastern MN, near Embarrass, Tower and Ely, could wake up to an isolated frost. Right now this does NOT look like a widespread frost (or killing freeze of 3-5+ hours below 28, capable of killing off all annuals). I think we'll have a bit too much of a breeze and residual cloud cover for that.

Forecast temperatures for 7 am Sunday morning. The epicenter of the cold air appears to be just south/east of the Twin Cities.

Danny, where are you? This morning's satellite image shows a very disorganized tropical storm Danny being swept northward, absorbed into an area of low pressure which will soak much of the mid Atlantic states and New England. But Danny proved to be something of a tropical disappointment. The computer models were (all) wrong. They predicted Danny would strengthen into a hurricane and remain just offshore. It never happened, the result of too much wind shear aloft or ocean water temperatures not as warm as predicted? Again, it's worth repeating: NHC, the National Hurricane Center, does a MUCH better job predicting the track of tropical storms and hurricanes than they do with intensity, by an order of magnitude it's easier to predict where a specific storm will go, then whether it will be a tropical storm, a category 1 or a category 4 storm.

Enough distractions, back to Minnesota weather. Dry weather prevails next week, in fact I don't see much of any chance of showers or T-storms until the Labor Day weekend (of course!) Could have predicted that 6 months ago, right? Temperatures will remain close to average for late August/early September, with highs in the mid to upper 70s, although the GFS model is hinting at 80+ by next weekend, maybe well into the 80s for Labor Day Monday (with a few rough T-storms around). Stay tuned.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Morning sun, PM clouds, a cool wind. Winds: N/NW 10-20. High: 66

Tonight: Clearing, chilly for late August. Isolated, patchy frost possible from near Mille Lacs and Sandstone northward to Embarrass and Tower. Low: 42 (probably no frost within 75 miles of the cities)

Sunday: Bright sun, lighter winds. High: 69

Monday: Sunny and beautiful. High: 75

Tuesday: Warm sunshine, still dry. High: 77

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, showers probably pass south/west. High: 78

Thursday: Mix of clouds and sunshine. High: 7

Friday: Promising start to the holiday weekend. Plenty of sun. High: 79

Saturday: Partly sunny, more humid. Slight chance of thunder. High: 81

Sunday: Sticky with intervals of sun, warmer. T-storms most likely far north. High: 83

Monday (Labor Day): Still warm for early September. Hazy sun, humid with a few strong T-storms nearby. High: 86

Thursday, August 27, 2009

News of a little weekend frost

Rainfall Statistics for August

Twin Cities: 6.35" (2.9" wetter than average) Temperatures for the month running half a degree cooler than average


St. Cloud: 5.08" (1.77 wetter than average). Temperatures for the month running .7 degrees cooler than average


"The two cities were separated only by a thin well-bridged river; their tails curling over the banks met and mingled, and at the juncture, under the jealous eye of each, lay, every fall, the State Fair. Because of its advantageous position, and because of the agricultural eminence of the state, the fair was one of the most magnificent in America. There were immense exhibits of grain, livestock and farming machinery; there were horse races and automobile races and, lately, aeroplanes that really left the ground; there was a tumultuous Midway with Coney Island thrillers to whirl you through space..."

- From A Night at the Fair, by F. Scott Fitzgerald, 1921.


Minnesota State Fair Statistics (thanks to Pete Boulay at the MN State Climate Office)

Hottest: August 24, 2003: 97 F.

Coldest: September 1, 1974: 36 F.

Wettest: 1977 (9.48" rain reported during the length of the fair)

Closest tornado: June 14, 1981. The "Har Mar Tornado" passed 1 mile north of the fairgrounds.

Strongest winds: August 20, 1904 (wind gusted to 110 mph. at the St. Paul Weather Bureau before the anemometer blew away! Winds would have been comparable at the state fairgrounds).

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities


Today: Mostly cloudy with a passing shower or sprinkle, turning breezy and cooler. Winds: NW 10-15. High: near 70

Tonight: Gradual clearing, bordering on chilly. Low: 49

Saturday: Feels like late September. More clouds than sun, cool breeze. Winds: N 10-20. High: 67

Saturday night: Clear with near-record cold. Patchy frost possible from Lake Mille Lacs to the Brainerd lakes area. Low: 41

Sunday: Bright sun, light winds, temperatures recover quickly. High: 70

Monday: Sunny and milder. High: 76

Tuesday: Warm sun, feels like summer again. High: 79

Wednesday: Sun fades behind increasing clouds, chance of a shower. High: 79

Thursday: Mix of clouds and sun. High: 78

Warming into the upper 70s/low 80s for the Labor Day weekend with a very slight risk of widely scattered T-storms. Right now MOST of the holiday weekend looks dry, warm and lake-worthy.

7 am temperatures predicted for Sunday morning, showing a large area of 30s from Lake Mille Lacs to Taylor's Falls, northward to Duluth, Tower and Embarrass, where a rare, late-August frost can't be ruled out. Chilly weather extends as far south as Iowa, where more 30s can't be ruled out. The "urban heat island" (more industry, concrete/asphalt) should keep temperatures in the Twin Cities metro area no cooler than 40-43 degrees.

I was debating one more mad dash up to the cabin on Pelican Lake, one more chance to check out "Elvis" at Breezy Point (I swear it really might be the real Elvis swooning out there on the dock). But the more I look at the weather maps the more inclined I am to stay put, loiter here in the metro, maybe check out the State Fair while it's cool, comfortable, more like late September.

Yes, I'll say it again: if you like your State Fair strolls cool and pleasant, with just a hint of an autumnal bite in the air, a dash of crisp, crackling and cool, you'll enjoy this upcoming weekend. You may even need a light jacket or sweatshirt - morning temperatures will hold in the 50s, reluctantly reaching the 60s by afternoon. It still looks like Sunday will be the nicer day of the weekend with more sun and less wind, high temperatures peaking in the mid to upper 60s.

We will see a nice warming trend next week, temperatures recovering to near 80 by midweek, even a chance of some low 80s for Labor Day weekend. Long-range guidance would have you believe we'll see a run of 80s, even a few 90s (!) the second full week of September. I know - very odd. With the exception of a fleeting shower later today, again next Wednesday, it's a basically dry forecast for the next 7-10 days. If you need an extended dry spell for yard work, field work, construction, painting - whatever - take advantage of this relatively quiet spell. No downpours, no freakish EF0 tornadoes hovering over downtown - yes, I think we've seen our excitement for the month.

Sunday F-F-Frost? I know, it's way too early. We're barely two months past the Summer Solstice! How 'bout a little mercy? Well, I'm afraid we have many of the ingredients necessary for a late August frost - a fresh transfusion of dry, Canadian air, a bubble of high pressure directly above Minnesota, resulting in little or no wind at ground-level by Sunday morning.

Some of the coldest nooks and crannies of northern Minnesota (and northwest Wisconsin) could experience a brief frost - from Tower to Sandstone, Hinckley and Hayward, WI. I want to stress that MOST of the us will not see a frost, but I have a feeling that some of the coldest nooks and crannies up north are going to come within 2-3 degrees of freezing Sunday morning. That said, by late afternoon those same towns will be more than 30 degrees warmer, with highs in the 60s. Good grief - we just careen, ricochet, from one extreme to the next.

The arrival of this surge of sweatshirt-worthy Canadian chill will set off more clouds today, especially by afternoon, and a fleeting shower is possible, but instability and moisture is marginal for any thundershower activity. If you're heading out to the State Fair I wouldn't worry too much - just make sure you can duck into a building (preferably one with heart-healthy food) if the sky opens up for 30 minutes or so.

WRF/NMM Model showing predicted rainfall later today, from 1 pm to 7 pm. A southbound cool front will spark a few instability showers, even a clap of thunder - nothing terribly heavy or severe is expected right now.

Drought Monitor, latest update. Conditions are improving with our recent heavy/regular rains. Last week 14.4% of Minnesota was suffering through a moderate drought. Now that number is down to 7.5% of the state. The region of extreme drought that was showing up north/east of St. Paul, in Chisago county, has disappeared, thanks to recent downpours. Even so, half the state is still too dry, and I don't see any significant rain looking out the next week to 10 days.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

A Spectacular Fair Opener

Weather Headlines

* Go while the 'gettin is good! Today: nicest day of the next 3 days. Light winds, low humidity, ample sunshine.

* Friday puddles. Next cool front arrives with a couple hours of showers tomorrow, latest NAM model prints out .13" of rain (best chance PM hours).

* Saturday sweatshirts? If you're heading out to the fair early Saturday you may need a light jacket or sweatshirt, temperatures will be in the 50s much of the morning, reaching mid/upper 60s by late afternoon. Saturday is the coolest day in sight.

* Sunday smiles. As the center of high pressure drifts right over Minnesota Sunday winds will ease, with enough sun for low 70s. Sunday still appears to be the nicer day of the weekend.

* Sweating out Labor Day. Long-range GFS guidance is hinting (strongly) at 80s returning the end of next week and the first weekend of September. If you like your state fairs hot and sweaty, you'll find plenty of like about the Labor Day weekend.


Better than fair.
There's something to be said for getting a jump on the Minnesota State Fair, especially when the forecast is as promising as it is today. The weather should be close to idea, temperatures rising through the 70s (peaking at 77 around 4 pm). Factor in a light puff of a northeasterly breeze (under 8 mph) and dew points in the mid 50s and you have a PERFECT day for strolling, pointing, people-watching and heart-healthy food-on-a-stick. If you head out today you will NOT be disappointed.

I saw this on TwitPic last night. These must be Conan's writers, snapping pictures of the amazing white chocolate bust shipped in by the Minnesota State Fair. I'm getting hungry. You?


Flame-on-a-Stick. O.K. This is the ONLY thing I haven't tried at the Minnesota State Fair. Hey, how did that guy get my favorite sport coat? Did you see Conan last night? He was very proud of the 200 pound bust of the comedian sent to him by the Minnesota State Fair. It's made out of white chocolate, his hair composed of orange bacon bits. It was a sight to behold! Yes, we are now officially on the map!



Here we are, focused on another storm with a name: "Danny", a tropical storm on its way toward becoming a minimal hurricane. Then again, the term "minimal hurricane" sounds a bit odd. ANY hurricane is a pretty big deal, for the record. Danny is still rather disorganized (see the satellite image below) but as the center, the core of the storm passes over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream rapid strengthening is likely. Danny will probably become a Category 1 hurricane by Friday, threatening the eastern seaboard and much of New England by Saturday as it races right up the coast. It will be a close call, a strong Bermuda high forcing Danny to take a westerly track, much farther west than Bill did last week. Danny may impact 60-80 million Americans living from the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward to the Chesapeake Bay, Washington D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, and a huge swath of New England from coastal Connecticut to Boston and Cape Cod may be impacted by at least tropical storm-force winds of 40 mph+. My hunch is that Danny will make a mess of travel weekend travel plans from Cape Hateras, North Carolina to Portland, Maine. If you're heading in that direction you'll want to stay up on the very latest forecast.

WRF/NMM Forecast for 1 pm Saturday, showing the center of Hurricane Danny just east of Ocean City, Maryland, racing north at 30-40 mph.

Thor, the Blizzard! Naming blizzards and major winter storms? Don't laugh. The Grand Forks Herald newspaper named major winter storms after famous local politicians and hockey stars in the 1970s! They're no longer doing this, but the whole idea was to a). make storms easier to remember, and b). sell newspapers! Not a bad little gimmick. Think it would work today, in Minnesota? Somehow I think it would end badly...

More art than science. NHC (National Hurricane Center) meteorologists have a lot of challenges in front of them, the track of a given hurricane, and the expected intensity. They use scores of computer models, focusing on a handful that tend to work best in a tropical environment. History shows that forecasters consistently do a much better job predicting the track of a hurricane than the expected intensity, with depends on a myriad of factors, including wind shear aloft and ocean water temperatures below. That's where the "art" comes in. The biggest fear, what keeps meteorologists up at night? This scenario: a minimal, Category 1 hurricane approaches the coast. Being a "minor" storm most coastal residents decide to ride out the storm - stay put. But the next morning meteorologists are shocked to discover that the hurricane has exploded into a Category 4 storm, a BEAST, with sustained winds of 140 mph and gusts to 165! Millions of coastal residents are threatened, but now there's just not enough time for all of them to reach safety before landfall. This, truly, is the nightmare scenario, and it almost happened, in 1991. More on that in tomorrow's weather column (thanks for tuning in, btw!)


Projected path of "Danny", expected to become a hurricane by 8 pm Friday before racing right up the east coast. For the very latest information on Danny from the NHC, the National Hurricane Center, click here.



Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Plenty of sunshine, low humidity, light winds. Winds: W/SW 5-15. High: 78

Tonight: Partly cloudy, showers far northern MN. Low: 56

Friday: Clouds increase, few showers likely by afternoon. Cooler. High: 74

Saturday: More clouds than sun, cooler than average. High: 68

Sunday: Bright sun, less wind - nicer day of the weekend. High: 72

Monday: Sunny and mild. High: 74

Tuesday: Warm sun, closer to "average". High: 76

Wednesday: Mix of clouds and sunshine, warming up nicely. High: 78

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Too much of a good (sunny) thing...

Weather Headlines

* No rain in the forecast for at least 8 days. Perfect stretch of weather for yardwork, fieldwork, construction. If you need an extended spell of dry weather take advantage of this!

* Warm weather hangs on into Thursday, cooler on Friday as winds shift to the north. Few rain showers brush MN Arrowhead Friday as cooler air arrives.

* Cool weekend at the MN State Fair with highs in the mid 60s (partly cloudy skies both days). Nighttime lows dip into the 40s, even in the metro area! If you like the State Fair cool & comfortable definitely plan on going THIS weekend.

* Warming up next week as winds swing around to the southwest, more 80s likely by the middle of next week.

* Growing thunder threat by Friday of next week.

* Labor Day Weather? Partly sunny, more humidity Saturday, Sunday and Monday, September 4-6, with widely scattered T-storms, highs in the 80s each day. It should feel more like the 4th of July than a classic Labor Day!

Yesterday I recorded my 4:00+ shows for Conservation Minnesota's mnweathercenter.org site, smiling, pointing, explaining, with what appeared to be a giant FLY on my left cheek. I'm happy to report it was NOT a persistent bug or giant tick. It was a wound, the aftermath of a biopsy performed on my face Monday morning. Men can be especially stubborn when it comes to seeing a doctor, no doubt - for weeks my dear wife has been imploring me to visit my friendly dermatologist - she was worried about a persistent red blotch, a pimple-like imperfection that didn't seem to want to go away. I know, TMI....sorry about that. The only reason I mention this is, well, twofold:

a). to defend my personal hygiene habits, and more importantly...

b). encourage you to take the sun seriously, especially if you're fair-skinned, work outside, or have a history of skin cancer in your family. Get into the habit of putting on (a little) sunscreen EVERY day!



Melanoma is no laughing matter. I'll know the results of my biopsy Monday, when I go in to get my stitches out. At that time I may work up the nerve to ask Dr. Wire why the stitches he put in are BLUE. I'm walking around with what looks like blue fishing line sticking out of my left cheek.


Tuesday got off to a dark, thundery start, mainly south of St. Cloud - over the southern third of Minnesota: swarms of showers and thunderstorms tracked from west to east. While St. Cloud only picked up .10" of rain MSP International Airport saw .53". The new Drought Monitor comes out tomorrow and I expect to see significant improvement statewide. Chances are we won't have any extreme drought, maybe no severe drought either - but I have a hunch moderate drought will hang on over parts of central and east central Minnesota. That said, there is NO QUESTION we are heading in the right direction; the worst of the drought is now behind us, and if this seasonably warm, thundery pattern hangs on another 1-2 months we may just recharge soil moisture and be in pretty good shape for 2010.

Doppler Radar Rainfall Estimates. The approach of a cooler front set off heavy showers and thunderstorms early Tuesday, the heaviest rains staying south of the Minnesota River, where some 1"+ amounts were reported. St. Cloud reported .10" of rain, but .53" fell at MSP International in Richfield, .67" at Eden Prairie, but only .26" fell at St. Paul and .28" at Crystal.

Today looks amazing. Go ahead and run a 3 hour errand for the boss, accidentally-on-purpose get lost driving back to the office. It should be one of the nicest days of summer with bright sun, light winds, low humidity. In a word: spectacular. Thursday should be nearly as nice with highs approaching 80, weather almost perfect for Day 1 of the Great Minnesota Get Together. Can you believe it's State Fair time? How the heck did THAT happen? The approach of a cooler front will set off more patchy mid and high level clouds Friday - by Saturday daytime highs hold in the 60s, with some nighttime lows dipping into the 40s up north. DEFINITELY take a jacket or sweatshirt up north. You'll thank yourself.

WRF/NMM Computer Prediction for Friday evening at 7 pm. Temperatures should be in the 70-74 range from St. Cloud to the Twin Cities, but check out the 50-degree readings over the MN Arrowhead. We'll get a taste of late September this weekend, but cool air will be fleeting - more warmth returns next week, in time for a very warm, sticky (thundery) Labor Day weekend.

After a chilly start early next week temperatures will quickly warm up next week, back into the 80s the latter half of next week - I wouldn't be shocked to see a 90 degree day in about a week or so. The best chance of showers/T-storms? Thursday night into Friday morning, but somewhat drier weather should return for the first weekend of September with highs in the 80s, a few degrees above average.


Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Sunny, low humidity, very little wind - postcard perfect. Winds: light, under 8 mph. High: 78

Tonight: Mostly clear and cool. Low: 53

Thursday: Sun dimmed by high clouds late in the day. Winds: SW 5-15. High: 81

Friday: More clouds, turning breezy and slightly cooler. High: 77

Saturday: Mix of clouds and sun, cooler than average. High: 68

Sunday: Partly cloudy, still feels like late September. High: 69

Monday: Mostly sunny, a few degrees milder. High: 74

Tuesday: Still dry, sunny and warmer. High: 76

Wednesday: Feels like summer again. Plenty of sun, warming up. High: 81

Thursday: Partly sunny, growing chance of T-storms Thursday night. High: 83

Monday, August 24, 2009

It's That Time of Year Again

Yep, it's about that time again... Itchy eyes, runny nose. I can almost time the Minnesota State Fair by my allergies. It never fails. I seem to always walk around the Fair looking like someone blew pepper in my face. It's terrible. Though, I'm not sure what's worse. Having a bad case of hay fever or overeating at the Fair... and we all know how that feels! We've all done it. I just seem to do it every year. So this year, maybe I'll lay off the corn on the cob... HMM, nope can't do that, it's too good. Well then, maybe it'll be the Pronto Pup... nope gotta have that. Bucket 'O' Fries - Geez, that's good too! See what I mean. It's hard not to walk away not bloated. I'm sure I'll find myself leaving the Fair again this year, muttering, I'll never do that again.


A Look Ahead

I'm not impressed by the forecast this weekend for the Twin Cities (MN State Fair in Falcon Heights): It appears to be breezy and cool with a spotty shower or two possible for Saturday. Sunday looks brighter and slightly warmer at this point, though, nothing like how I remember the Fair in recent years (hot and sticky).
(Side - I'll pull up some past State Fair weather data and share it tomorrow, stay tuned!)

In Other Weather News

Weather Headlines over the weekend included heavy surf along the East Coast from Hurricane Bill, which proved to be deadly along the Maine coastline. Unfortunately 2 lost their lives as a large wave washed them out to sea while they were spectating. Mother nature can be quite a spectacle, but there’s something to be said about the power of nature… we should always respect it.

lightning

This picture was taken by Will Wilkens (severestudios.com) in the Mojave Desert

The weather maps are fairly quiet around the nation today. Noteworthy storms may fire up across high plains this afternoon, but should only affect a tiny percentage of the people within the General T-Storm Risk issued by the Storm Prediction Center and if anything develops, it will only last a short while. Here’s the latest Watches and Warnings from SPC: www.spc.noaa.gov

One last note - Wildfires have been raging in Athens Greece, prompting massive evacuations for certain areas of the city. Reports on Sunday stated that these were the worst wildfires in the area since 2007, when 70 people were killed. Take a look at this amazing (high resolution satellite NOAA image from 22,500 miles above the earth’s surface):athens-smokeI’ve added red dots (the larger one depicts Athens) to show where the fires are and I’ve added yellow lines to define the smoke plumes.

OK, that’s it for now. Don’t forget to check back daily for more interesting weather tidbits and factoids. We’ll be here everyday, blogging with the latest and greatest from around the world and in your backyard. If you have a weather photo that you’d like to see featured here, send it to me! tnelson@weathernation.net


Todd's Outlook for Greater St. Cloud


Today: Isolated shower or storm early, sun reappears and a few degrees cooler (with less wind). High: 80

Tonight: Partly cloudy and cool. Low: 59

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and pleasant. High: near 76

Thursday: (Day 1 of the MN State Fair). Partly cloudy and warmer. High: 78

Friday: Partly sunny and cooler with spotty PM showers possible. High: 75

Saturday: Partly sunny, unseasonably cool with a slight chance of a sprinkle or two early. High: 72

Sunday: Looking better. Decreasing clouds, more PM sunshine and warmer. High: 71

Monday: Sunnier. Warmer. Closer to norm. High: 76

Betting on a warm, quiet, drama-free week

Weather Headlines

Can I lose the sweatshirt? Yes. A dry, seasonably warm week is on tap, the result of west to southwest jet stream steering winds 4-6 miles overhead. Daytime highs should flirt with 80 just about every day this week. Not too shabby considering the average high right now is 79.

Will I have to water the lawn? Yes. Probably. There is a slight chance of a passing shower or T-shower late Monday night or Tuesday morning ahead of a weak cool front. That's pretty much it for the entire week!

Weather Drama? No. This week should be tornado-free, no torrential rains, no wailing sirens, no red-faced meteorologists ("how - exactly - do you miss a tornado RIGHT OVER DOWNTOWN MINNEAPOLIS?")

Weekend Prognosis: Bet on Saturday. There should be enough sun for upper 70s to near 80. Clouds thicken Sunday with a growing chance of showers/storms.

A Fair Start? Yes, the weather will be fine for Day 1 of the fair on Thursday. Expect generous sunshine with a high around 80, dew points in the low to mid 50s will make it feel very comfortable!

Is it safe to look out into next week yet? Probably not, but here goes: cooler the first half of next week, highs in the 70s, even some 60s up north, but warming back up into the 80s, maybe even 90 degrees by Labor Day weekend, the first weekend of September.


So much data, so little wisdom. Is it just me or are you gagging on information, but finding it harder than ever to determine what it really means, where is the analysis, perspective, the background I need to make sense of all this craziness? Growing up, a child of the 70s, none of us could have anticipated the Internet Age, with it's seemingly infinite choices, information-on-demand, Google and Wikipedia, and a million other useful digital destinations at the tip of our fingers. Today it seems we're drowning in a roiling, raging sea of links, blogs, YouTube video clips, overwhelmed with texting, e-mail, voice mail, snail mail, increasingly paranoid about whether we're Twittering appropriately or updating our Facebook often enough. All this while playing News Director. Now WE get to choose what our news stream looks like, when and where we consume the information we think we care about.

In 1974 it was a lot tougher trying to solve the weather riddle. We could watch the local TV weather report, sure, and there were maybe 3-4 reliable sources of forecasts on the radio. That, and a weather map in the newspaper. To see the raw weather maps I would drive 20 miles to a local community college for a look at the LFM, the Limited Fine Mesh computer model, the one and ONLY computer model we had to base our forecasts on. Today there are scores of weather models; some work better than others in certain scenarios. The truth remains: the most accurate weather forecasts over time, rely on a mix of man and machine. Computer models are great, but meteorologists still have to step in and decipher the raw computer output, and try to determine when the computer is full of bunk and better ignored.

Today forecast accuracy improves roughly 1%/year, the 3-5 forecast accuracy is as good as the 48 hour forecast was in 1975. The amount of warning for an average tornado has more than doubled since then, from 6 to nearly 15 minutes. Now weather satellites document and scrutinize every hurricane wobble - giving coastal residents an average of 2-4 DAYS to get to higher ground. I'd like to believe that our technology has improved to the point where the Armistice Day Blizzard would not claim 80 Minnesota lives ever again; next time we'd KNOW that temperatures would fall from the 60s into the teens in a matter of hours.

Today's would-be meteorologist, weather-enthusiast, geek, fanatic (!) has a staggering wealth of data to choose from. Everyone has become their own armchair meteorologist, right? Everyone has a pretty good basic concept of radar and what a satellite image is. Farmer and pilots have always been skilled weather prognosticators, but I acknowledge that ALL Minnesotans are, by nature - by necessity - weatherwise beyond their years. We live an age of INSTANT-ON. Tell me NOW. Don't make me wait! That's why newspapers and magazines are folding and local TV stations are gutting shows and firing staff - far fewer people are watching the news; people are getting news on their own schedule, tailored for what they care about. "I don't need no 'stinkin News Director telling me what's leading the news - I will decide what leads MY news!

It's all about technology, taking advantage of this always-on, interactive, personalized platform. It's no longer a SPEECH. No, now it's a CONVERSATION. People, all of us, want to be a part of the process, we want our voice to be heard. Don't ram stuff down our throats - talk TO us, talk WITH us, not AT US! That's the refrain, and now the democratization of information with Apple Apps, e-mails bringing my favorite topics to me 24/7, podcasts that automatically update while I'm sleeping, favorite bookmarks from sources I trust. It's funny, TV stations are rerunning their news on their web sites, even specific stories, allowing people to comment. Two to three years from now that's going to be so outdated, a relic of the 90s. It reminds me a little of the late 1940s, when TV was overtaking radio as the #1 source of entertainment and information. At first clueless TV executives slapped favorite radio shows onto TV and patted themselves on the back. Then, a few years later, some brainiac had an idea. "Hey, let's take full advantage of this new medium and create shows with MOVING PICTURES as well as audio!" Fast forward to Archie Bunker and Simon Cowell.

I don't pretend to have the answers, but we are all in a very difficult, transformational period, where one era is ending, a new one beginning, and the transition from one to the other is hardly seamless and without pain. It's been wrenching. But something better is coming, a new always-on, interactive, personalized system that will allow you to watch whatever you want to see, on any device you want to watch it - hopefully with only the commercial messages you want to see, stuff that you're potentially interested in. Everything will be On-Demand, tailored for you. Instead of warning 80 counties in Minnesota of a tornado, just the handful of neighborhoods actually in the path will see an (optional) message warning them of a twister.

The idea of everyone watching the same thing, at the same time, is on it's last legs. With the exception of sporting events, Olympics, Superbowls, etc everyone will have their own personal streams, always updating, always customized, taking full advantage of high-speed Internet spectrum. I honestly believe that's where we're going. Later this year Apple will release a new tablet that will be another big step on the way to personalized news/advertising. It's going to be a wild ride, no question. We're placing some big bets with WeatherNation and Singular Logic (our attempt to reinvent advertising by allowing YOU to choose the categories of ads you're willing to watch to keep content free). You shouldn't have to watch Cialis ads unless you WANT to, unless you NEED to. The age of One-Size-Fits-All is so 1983. It's about to get very, very interesting out there...

I have to laugh. Rupert Murdoch honestly believes he can charge consumers to read his newspapers, and he's trying to get other newspaper publishers to do the same thing: set up pay walls around his news stories currently sloshing around the Internet. Call me crazy, but I think it's a little like trying to put the toothpaste back into the tube. Good luck with that. I'm betting (along with some very smart people I'm working with) that the vast majority of Americans and people worldwide will NOT want to pay for news/information, no matter how good it is, now that they've been getting it for free for so long. I think there's a much better chance of paying for all this news, entertainment and information by personalizing the news and the commercial messages to reflect each consumer. No more one-size-fits-all. Time will tell, but that old adage, "may you live in interesting times" rings true. Does it ever. Remember, this recession/media implosion is a threat, and an opportunity.

Hurricane Bill, during headier times last week, when the storm was a "category 3" affair with sustained winds near 135 mph. Notice the fact that even last week, when the storm was "healthier", the cloud bands around the calm eye are not perfectly symmetric - they're skewed to the east/right side of the storm, the result of considerable wind shear aloft, which may be another sign of El Nino, a warming of Pacific Ocean water now well underway. That would tend to mean a reduced hurricane risk for the USA in the weeks ahead. Hurricane season peaks on September 11, by the way. That's the date a hurricane is most likely to strike the east coast of the U.S.
Minnesota State Data. Click here to go right to this NWS site, which is a great place to find specific climate data, warning information, or future forecast specifics, for any corner of the state!

Hope you soaked up a wondrous Sunday; the mercury peaked at 78 in St. Cloud, but I saw 81 at Redwood Falls, Benson and Faribault, 84 at Canby. Today should be a few degrees warmer as a south/southwest wind continues to blow

El Uh Oh. The equatorial Pacific is warming - what can POSSIBLY go wrong? This is the latest sea surface temperature graphic, showing water temperatures as much as 2-4 degrees (F) warmer than average off the coast of Central America and Ecuador. Approximately 2 out of 3 El Nino patterns result in a "split flow" later in the winter, one that whips up more storms from southern California across the southern USA, but a milder, more westerly wind flow for much of the nation. Based on El Nino alone I'd be tempted to predict a milder upcoming winter.

But it's not that simple. The sun is still (amazingly) quiet - no sunspots - and for some reason that seems to coincide with temporary temperature dips here on Planet Earth. The fact that there's no end to this quiet solar cycle would push me in the direction of an average, or colder than average winter. Bottom line: too early. To be fair to you (and myself) more data has to arrive. It's like judging a play from the first two acts.

Premature.


Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Warm sunshine, windy, very nice - distractingly nice. Winds: South 15-30, gusty. High: 83

Tonight: Clouds increase, chance of a shower or T-shower towards daybreak. Low: 62

Tuesday: Sun reappears, a few degrees cooler (with less wind). High: 79

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and pleasant. High: 81

Thursday: (Day 1 of the MN State Fair). Plenty of sun, warmer than average. High: 83

Friday: Partly cloudy, a bit more haze and humidity. High: near 80

Saturday: Probably the nicer day of the weekend, mix of clouds and sun, dry. High: 79

Sunday: Unsettled, more clouds, few showers, possible thunder. High: 76

Monday: Breezy and noticeably cooler with a leftover shower possible. High: 73

Sunday, August 23, 2009

Sunday lives up to its name

Weather Perfection. Now THAT'S what I'm talking about! I took this shot yesterday, a tired Saturday sun illuminating jet contrails which had spread out into high, thin cirrus clouds about 25,000 to 30,000 feet above the ground. It turns out we are having a subtle impact on weather every day. Jet contrails over busy airport corridors can keep afternoon temperatures 1-3 degrees cooler during the day, and a couple degrees warmer at night than they would be otherwise.



Saturday's high in the Twin Cities: 74 degrees.


Enhanced IR Satellite. Hurricane Bill sweeps north, brushing Cape Cod and coastal New England with gale force winds and 10-15 foot seas. High pressure centered over eastern Iowa will turn Minnesota's winds around more to the south/southwest today, temperatures should be 5-6 degrees warmer than yesterday with a little more humidity in the air, but all in all another amazingly fine late August day!

Pure unmitigated weather bliss. Translation: really, really nice. I'm still dazed and amazed, smiling uncontrollably, hyperventilating after what may have been the most amazing Saturday of summer. Check that, yesterday may have been the best day of summer: virtually no wind, crisp humidity levels, unlimited visibility, lukewarm temperatures, even the mosquitoes seemed to back off out of respect for a postcard-perfect day - the result of a ridge of high pressure overhead: a dome of drying, sinking, slowly warming air directly above our (grateful) heads.

WRF/NMM (NAM) Model Prediction for 1 pm temperatures today. Note readings at or above 80 over roughly the western half of Minnesota. The farther west you go, the stronger the (southerly) breeze and the better the odds of cracking the 80 degree mark.

We're waking up to some 40s Sunday morning, a touch of fog in a few river valleys, an omen of what's to come in the weeks ahead. Temperatures will warm rapidly today as winds pick up from the south, reaching the 10-15 mph. range this afternoon as the mercury flirts with the 80 degree mark. Today's warming trend spills over into Monday with highs in the low to mid 80s, a dew point reaching the low 60s, meaning more noticeable levels of humidity in the air (expect a few complaints). An eastbound cool front sparks a spirited round of showers and T-storms Tuesday, followed by drier, sunnier weather by midweek.


The Great Minnesota Get Together. It's baaaack, the Minnesota State Fair, kicks off Thursday of this week (how did THAT happen?) If you hope to get out sooner rather than later you may just be in luck, weatherwise. Computer guidance is hinting at near-perfect weather for Thursday's grand opening: plenty of sun, highs from 80-82 with a comfortable dew point in the mid to upper 50s...probably dry. No stinking hot weather is in sight, in fact it may cool down noticeably early next week, highs in the 70s, even some 60s by Monday or Tuesday of next week. It's early, but Saturday appears to be the nicer, drier, warmer day of the weekend for the fair, or one more mad dash up to the cabin. The chance of showers/T-storms will increase during the day Sunday, one week from today.

Today's Outlook for the Twin Cities area

Today: Mostly sunny, breezy and warm - a fine summer day. Winds: South 10-15. High: 81

Tonight: Clear to party cloudy. Low: 60

Monday: Hazy sun, warmer - still dry. High: 83

Tuesday: Unsettled with a good chance of showers, few T-storms. High: 80

Wednesday: Sunshine most of the day, very pleasant. High: 80

Thursday: Mostly sunny, not too many complaints. High: 82

Friday: Partly cloudy, seasonably mild. High: near 80

Saturday: Probably the sunnier, drier, nicer day of the weekend - fading sunshine. High: 79

Sunday: More clouds, showers and T-storms arrive. High: 76

Friday, August 21, 2009

A high pressure weekend

After a week of pure weather drama - soaking rains, fickle tornadoes, uncomfortably cool and gusty fronts sweeping out of Canada - it's nice to be able to kick back and predict a high-pressure weekend. Not high pressure as in stress, mind you. We're talking a bubble of high pressure, a bubble of mild, dry, clockwise rotating air - sinking and warming as it descends. This fair-weather-maker will linger into Monday morning, keeping skies sunny, dry and increasingly warm. 80 is possible Sunday afternoon, but likely Monday, out ahead of a weak cool front which may spark a fleeting shower or sprinkle by Monday afternoon.

WRF/NAM Model Output for 1 pm Sunday. Temperatures by midday Sunday should be flirting with 80 over roughly the western half of Minnesota, winds increasing from the southwest at 10-20 mph.



Weekend Weather Headlines

Precipitation: Dry both days, virtually no chance of rain.

Winds. Saturday: NE 5-15. Sunday: SE 5-15.

Rainfall: none expected.

Dew point: upper 40s Saturday, mid to upper 50s Sunday, the more humid day of the weekend.

4 Panel "NAM" Model Output for the weekend. A ridge of high pressure draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin will keep skies sunny, winds light, right through midday Monday. Meanwhile check out the eastern seaboard - Hurricane Bill will swipe Cape Cod and Martha's Vineyard by Sunday. President Obama and family is tentatively scheduled to vacation on Martha's Vineyard this weekend - my hunch is that Air Force One may remove the President, as a safety precaution, before the brunt of the storm passes just east of the Vineyard on Sunday. Although winds probably won't exceed 30 mph, surf as high as 10-15' is expected, bad news for vacationers arriving by ferry.

Putting a Real Dent in the Drought of '09. Check out the estimated rainfall amounts for the entire week (from August 14 - 21). The dark green regions picked up more than 4" of rain, roughly a 5-6 week allocation of precipitation. You can see a small region of 8"+ rainfall north of Taylor's Falls, the biggest soaking this past week was 30-60 miles north/east of St. Paul, ironically falling on the part of Minnesota suffering from "Extreme" drought conditions. Go figure.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Mostly sunny and beautiful with light winds. Winds: NE 5-10. High: 76

Tonight: Clear and cool. Low: 51

Sunday: Bright sun, a bit more wind and humidity, warmer too. Winds: SE 10-15. High: 82

Monday: Warm sun, feels like the Dog Days. High: 84

Tuesday: Clouds increase, growing risk of showers and T-storms. High: 81

Wednesday: Sunny, turning breezy, cooler and less humid. High: 78

Thursday: Mostly sunny and very nice. High: 79

Friday: Sun fading behind increasing clouds. High: 81

Thursday, August 20, 2009

A (favorable) Change in the Weather

A Change in the Weather. No kidding! July we couldn't buy a shower (or a warm front). Now it won't stop raining! So far, during the first 20 days of August, the Twin Cities metro area has been swamped with 5.7" of rain. That's 3" more than usual for the first 20 days of August! If this keeps up the drought may be drawing to a close sooner than anyone thought.

Thursday Rainfall Amounts

Twin Cities: .52"

St. Cloud: .34"

Duluth: .66"

Grand Marais: .97"

Alexandria: .71"

Rochester: .03"


Drought Monitor as of August 18, Wednesday, at 7 am. Keep in mind the VAST majority of the rain came after 7 am Wednesday. Many neighborhoods have picked up 2-3" of rain since then. I have no doubt that most of the metro is still in a moderate drought, but my hunch is that next week's Drought Monitor may ease the severe/extreme drought conditions most severe north/east of St. Paul. Some of these counties have been inundated by 4-7" of rain since Wednesday!

Doppler Radar Rainfall Estimates for Wednesday. Note the 4-6" amounts north/east of the metro in Chisago and Isanti Counties, and another region of very substantial rains from near Willmar westward to Milan.




EF0 Tornado that hit South Minneapolis at 2 pm Wednesday afternoon, captured on an iPhone by Kristin Clark from WeatherNation. The video sequence was taken from Kristin's 7th floor Uptown balcony overlooking the Minneapolis skyline. Even in this still image you can see the lowering, rotating wall cloud.


Check out this video from a security camera at east Lake and 4th Street. The pond at the center of the screen temporarily drains (!) and a tree in the upper right lands on a van. Watch carefully and you'll see an EF0 tornado pass right in front. Anyone walking in THAT parking lot would have had quite a story to tell!

Here is the latest damage update from the local National Weather Service office, confirming weak tornadoes in south Minneapolis and North Branch. Then again, the term "weak tornado" is something of an oxymoron, right up there with "jumbo shrimp", "airline food", and "Senate Intelligence Committee". It makes no sense. ANY tornado is a pretty big deal, an EF0 twister still capable of wind speeds anywhere from 65 to 95 mph. Thank God these were small tornadoes, or the death toll could have very significant, touching down in densely populated areas.

Tornado Factoid #1: Hennepin County has seen 8 large, violent tornadoes (F3 to F5 strength) since 1951, according to the National Weather Service and the MN State Climatology Office.

Tornado Factoid #2: Tom Clark, who took the video of the tornado on his daughter (Kristin's) iPhone Wednesday was also in the process of installing a home weather instrument from La Crosse Technology (a little housewarming gift for Kristin from yours truly). Tom had just finished getting this thing mounted on the wall when the tornado formed less than 1/2 mile away. At 1:58 pm the barometric pressure bottomed out at 29.57" of mercury, just as the tornado was forming nearby.

4 Panel (NAM) Weather Model through 7 am Saturday morning. The same storm that whipped up Wednesday's crazy tornado buffet and Thursday's foul, wind-whipped showers, will finally get an eastward nudge over the weekend. By Saturday morning high pressure is forecast to be sunning itself over Nebraska, setting the stage for an increasingly sunny and warm weekend for Minnesota.

Today won't win any awards for splendor or ambiance - any sun will quickly give way to scrappy, low-hanging clouds leaking light showers and afternoon sprinkles. Winds will blow from the northwest at 20 mph, it will be choppy on area lakes, afternoon "highs" stuck in the mid to upper 60s. But fear not. Under the heading "Good Timing" the storm that has tormented us with unpredictable tornadoes, but lavished us with wondrous, well-timed, SOAKING, million dollar rains will finally get out of Dodge, tracking east toward New England, setting the stage for an increasingly sunny, warm and pleasant weekend. Sunday still looks like the best day to be out on the lake with highs topping 80 under a sunny sky. But the entire weekend looks memorable, dry, with less wind - classic, beautiful late August weather for Minnesota and Wisconsin. Very few complaints are anticipated. A shower may drift into town Monday, followed by slight cooling next week, but no weather drama is shaping up. At least I hope not. Not sure my heart can take too many more weeks like this one!

GFS Computer Forecast for Sunday morning at 7 am. Check out "Bill", Hurricane Bill, just east of Cape Cod and Martha's Vineyard, where rumor has it the First Family will be trying to escape for a little relaxation and family time. At the very least the Obamas will probably experience moderate to heavy rain from some of the outer bands of Bill, gusts over 40 mph, and waves greater than 10-15 feet coming ashore near their vacation pad at "Blue Heron Farm" near Chilmark, which supposedly rents out for $50,000/week. I wonder if they bought insurance for their vacation?

A Presidential Encounter with Bill? No, not that Bill. Mr. Clinton won't be anywhere near Martha's Vineyard this upcoming weekend, when the first family is scheduled to spend some quality vacation time on this small, exclusive island, accessible by ferry only, roughly 2 hours south of Boston. The only problem? A category 3-4 hurricane by the name of "Bill" is forecast to pass just 150-200 miles east of Cape Cod, Massachusetts over the weekend, perilously close to Martha's Vineyard. Talk about lousy timing. My hunch, gut (nausea?) is that the vacation may be called off due to the hurricane threat. We'll see (check below for the Sunday morning computer forecast and you'll have a better idea why I suspect the Obamas may be hanging out in D.C. this weekend).



Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Mostly cloudy, windy, still cooler than average. A few passing showers and sprinkles are likely, best chance around midday. Some late afternoon/evening clearing is likely. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 68

Tonight: Gradual clearing - cool. Low: 53

Saturday: Plenty of sun, dry - less wind. Winds: NW 5-10. High: 74

Sunday: Nicer day for the lake or pool. Bright sun, light winds. Winds: SW 5-10. High: 82

Monday: Sun gives way to increasing clouds, slight chance of a shower. High: 83

Tuesday: A mix of clouds and sun, still pleasant. High: near 80

Wednesday: Plenty of sun, slightly cooler, but close to average for late August. High: 77

Thursday: Partly cloudy and warm. High: 79


The National Weather Service has put together a great page, summarizing meteorological conditions at the time of the tornadoes. Click here to see what they've put together.

NWS Doppler Radar Loop from Wednesday, August 18, 2009



PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
520 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2009

...TORNADO RATINGS FROM THE SOUTH MINNEAPOLIS AND NORTH BRANCH
AREAS...

...SOUTH MINNEAPOLIS TORNADO RATED A HIGH END EF0...
...NORTH BRANCH TORNADO RATES AN EF0...

...TORNADO RATINGS FROM THE COTTAGE GROVE AND HUDSON WISCONSIN
AREAS...

...COTTAGE GROVE TORNADO RATED A LOW END EF1...
...HUDSON WISCONSIN TORNADO RATED AN EF0...

A DAMAGE ASSESSMENT TEAM FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
CHANHASSEN SURVEYED STORM DAMAGE IN THE MINNEAPOLIS AREA. THEY
CONFIRMED THAT A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN SOUTH MINNEAPOLIS...
INITIALLY NEAR EAST 53RD STREET AND PARK AVENUE AROUND 150 PM CDT.
THE TORNADO THEN MOVED NORTH FROM THAT LOCATION TOWARD DOWNTOWN...
AND EVENTUALLY LIFTED NEAR THE CONVENTION CENTER AROUND 200 PM CDT.
DAMAGE WAS MOST INTENSE AND CONCENTRATED FROM EAST 45TH STREET NORTH
TO EAST 38TH STREET... GENERALLY ALONG PARK... OAKLAND... PORTLAND
AND 5TH AVENUES. THE TRACK SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST OF DUE NORTH WITH
TIME. THE MOST INTENSE DAMAGE WAS CONSISTENT WITH EF0 INTENSITY...
WITH WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 75 AND 85 MPH. NUMEROUS TREES WERE DOWNED
IN THE AREA... WITH DAMAGE TO A NUMBER OF HOMES AND STRUCTURES AS
WELL. MUCH OF THE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WAS DUE TO FALLING TREES. THE
TORNADO TRACK WAS APPROXIMATELY 4.5 MILES IN LENGTH... ALTHOUGH IT
MAY HAVE LIFTED FOR A BRIEF TIME BETWEEN EAST 29TH STREET AND THE
CONVENTION CENTER AREA. MAXIMUM TRACK WIDTH WAS APPROXIMATELY 500
YARDS... ALTHOUGH THE MOST INTENSE DAMAGE OCCURRED ALONG A PATH
APPROXIMATELY 250 YARDS WIDE.

THE ASSESSMENT TEAM ALSO CONFIRMED THAT A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN
NORTH BRANCH JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE SCHOOL. IT TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH FIELDS INTO A NEIGHBORHOOD NEAR 2ND AND 3RD
AVENUES AND CEDAR STREET... THEN LIFTED NEAR RIVERCREST AND
RIVERVIEW COURTS. THE TRACK WAS APPROXIMATELY 1 MILE IN LENGTH WITH
A MAXIMUM WIDTH OF APPROXIMATELY 200 YARDS. DAMAGE WAS CONSISTENT
WITH EF0 INTENSITY... WITH WINDS BETWEEN 70 AND 80 MPH.

A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ASSESSMENT TEAM ALSO SURVEYED STORM
DAMAGE FROM THE COTTAGE GROVE AND HUDSON WISCONSIN AREAS TODAY. THEY
CONFIRMED THAT A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR 122ND STREET JUST WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61 IN SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AROUND 240 PM CDT ON THE
AFTERNOON OF AUGUST 19TH...WHERE IT INITIALLY PRODUCED EF0 DAMAGE TO
A ROOF...PLAYGROUND EQUIPMENT...AND A GARAGE DOOR. THE TORNADO THEN
TRACKED NORTHWEST ACROSS LOFTON AND LOCKRIDGE AVENUES JUST WEST OF
HIGHWAY 61 IN COTTAGE GROVE...WHERE IT PRODUCED LOW END EF1 DAMAGE.
THE TORNADO EITHER UPROOTED OR SHEARED OFF A SWATH OF LARGE
TREES...MANY THAT WERE 2 TO 3 FEET IN DIAMETER. THE APPROXIMATE PATH
LENGTH OF THIS TORNADO WAS 1200 YARDS...AND THE MAXIMUM WIDTH WAS 75
YARDS. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS WITH THIS TORNADO WERE 90 TO 100 MPH.

DAMAGE FROM ANOTHER TORNADO WAS FOUND NEAR COUNTY ROAD UU AND LARSON
LANE NEAR HUDSON WISCONSIN. THIS TORNADO PRODUCED EF0 DAMAGE...AND
TOUCHED DOWN SHORTLY AFTER 3 PM CDT. THE TORNADO MOVED NORTH
NORTHEAST AND EITHER DOWNED OR UPROOTED SEVERAL 1 TO 2 FOOT DIAMETER
TREES...AND ALSO CAUSED MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO MULTIPLE HOUSES. THE
APPROXIMATE PATH WIDTH WAS 25 YARDS...AND THE LENGTH WAS ABOUT 600
YARDS. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS WITH THIS TORNADO WERE 80 TO 85 MPH.

SKYWARN SPOTTERS WITNESSED TORNADOES BRIEFLY TOUCH DOWN IN RURAL
PORTIONS OF BROWN AND BLUE EARTH COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY... BUT ONLY
MINOR CROP DAMAGE WAS FOUND IN OPEN AREAS.

RESULTS FROM THE SURVEYS WILL ALSO BE PROVIDED ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TWINCITIES AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

More on Wednesday's Freak Minneapolis Tornado

A Meteorologist's worst nightmare? Did a tornado really hit south Minneapolis Wednesday afternoon around 2 pm? Based on the evidence (video captured by WeatherNation meteorologist Kristin Clark and Doppler radar imagery) it sure looks like a small EF0 or EF1 tornado formed over south Minneapolis and then dissipated as it swept north, towards the downtown skyline. Today NWS meteorologists will walk through damaged neighborhoods in South MCanon Falls, inneapolis, examining tree damage and how debris was carried through the air, trying to determine if it was straight-line, or tornadic. My hunch is that it was the latter.

What the heck happened? This was uncomfortably close to being "out of the blue". The metro area was in a slight risk of severe storms from SPC, the Storm Prediction Center, but the general perception is that the local weather community was caught with its Doppler down. An upper-level disturbance, a counterclockwise-rotating swirl of unusually cold air 4-8 miles aloft sparked a widespread surge of rain, almost resembling an MCS, a meso-convective system, which tends to form at night, not during the day. Even though it was cool (upper 60s) there was enough instability, wind shear, and pure spin (vorticity) in the atmosphere to whip up brief, strong, "mesocyclones", rotating thunderstorms capable of hail and tornadoes. The cell that formed over South Minneapolis developed VERY quickly, by the time warnings were formally issued and the sirens were sounding the threat (from the S. Minneapolis tornado) was probably long gone. It was a signal that the atmosphere was explosively/dangerously unstable, minutes later there was another touchdown near Cottage Grove, then later more tornadoes near Canon Falls, Mankato and North Branch. In all there may have been as many as 4-5 separate tornado touch downs on Wednesday

What the...? The Minneapolis tornado is making a lot of people very, very uncomfortable. It's one thing if a tornado forms over fields with little/no warning, but within 1 mile of the MSP International Airport and 1-2 miles from downtown Minneapolis? That's an entirely different scenario, the definition of an "OH CRAP" moment. No watches or warnings were in effect at the time of the apparent touchdown. To the best of my knowledge no local TV station was on the air warning of dangerous conditions bearing down on the Minneapolis skyline. Worst case? No, the IDS would not have tipped over. But outer glass walls could have been stripped, shattered - raining deadly debris on pedestrians below, severing the Skyway system, turning cars (and buses) on the Nicollet Mall into projectiles. A few years ago a study focused on Chicago, what might happen if a major, F3-F5 tornado struck during rush hour. The projections sounded like something out of a horror movie: 3,000 to 5,000 people dead, 20,000-50,000 locals injured, damage running into the BILLIONS of dollars. The report shook a lot of people up, myself included. A major tornado hitting a major city, especially at rush hour, with hundreds of thousands of commuters trapped in their cars, would be a catastrophe that would make Hurricane Katrina look like a proverbial walk in the park...

Major Urban Tornadoes. A recent study in the Dallas - Fort Worth area predicted that a major (EF3-EF5) tornado, hitting during rush hour, could claim thousands of lives, injuries running into the tens of thousands with a damage toll topping 2-3 billion. The report echoed a similar study focusing on Chicago, underscoring two things: a). in spite of a handful of tornadoes hitting downtowns in recent years we've been relatively lucky, and b). a worst-case, long-lasting, violent tornado would leave behind a trail of damage and death that could dwarf the aftermath of a major hurricane.

__________________________________________

So yesterday, as my good friend and meteorological colleague Kristin Clark called into WeatherNation for a blow-by-blow account of what she was seeing in the sky above South Minneapolis, I held my breath, said a quick prayer, hoping it wouldn't strengthen into something truly life-threatening on a massive scale. To be fair, the expression "small tornado" is an oxymoron. ANY tornado is a pretty big deal, even a "small" EF0 or EF1, with winds under 100 or 110 mph, strong enough to take down big trees and cause significant roof damage. That's probably what hit S. Minneapolis (and later, the Cottage Grove area).

But the event, this surprise urban tornado, underscores the obvious: technology isn't perfect. Never will be. Doppler will NOT pick up every single tornado, especially the small, brief tornadoes. Local authorities, Civil Defense, National Weather Service, local media, favorite meteorologists, in spite of best intentions, will NEVER be able to catch all the threats in real time.


It's sobering to hear, but it's the truth: to some degree all of us are on our own. We are responsible for our own safety. If you see the cloud base rotating and lowering to the ground, in front of your eyes (accompanied by your ears popping and a growing roar, like thunder that won't go away) do yourself, and future generations, a big favor and get your butt to a safe spot, preferably below ground, below grade. Remember, the threat isn't being lofted into the sky like Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz. It's standing up and being hit on the head by a tiny pebble traveling at 150 mph. Blunt head trauma. Flying debris. That's how most people become tornado victims. In light of yesterday's scare vow to maintain control over situational awareness, rely on your own wits (in addition to the NWS and local media) and realize that, in the end, YOU are responsible for keeping yourself out of trouble.

Thumbprint of an Urban Tornado. From the Chanhassen, National Weather Service Doppler, this is an SRV (Storm Relative Velocity) image from the Twin Cities, MPX Doppler Radar from 2 pm yesterday, when WeatherNation meteorologist Kristin Clark was taking video of a developing tornado over South Minneapolis. Note the vivid "couplet" just east of St. Louis Park, over south Minneapolis. The bright green is air moving toward the radar site (in Chanhassen), while the bright red air is moving away from the site, suggesting very strong rotation in this particular T-storm cell. The Doppler signature is a strong hint that this was, in fact, a small tornado, and not straight-line winds.


Doppler Evidence of a Tornado. Close-up of the SRV Doppler display, showing a developing tornado over south Minneapolis around 2 pm Wednesday afternoon. Check on the complete weather video at Conservation Minnesota to see the tornado that hit south Minneapolis.


I hope you were able to check out Wednesday's tornado footage over at Conservation Minnesota's excellent weather center: (www.mnweathercenter.org). Wednesday at 2 pm WeatherNation meteorologist Kristin Clark was on her 7th floor Uptown balcony, with a sweeping view of downtown Minneapolis, with her parents, Tom and Noreen Clark (who I went to college with). Tom is a dear friend, the best man at my wedding, and a phenomenal TV meteorologist up in the Twin Cities of northeastern PA, Wilkes/Barre - Scranton. So they're standing outside, admiring the view, no watches, no warnings, no sirens, just a steady, heavy rain. The rain tapes, skies begin to clear and brighten, but then Kristin notices a lowering, rotating cloud base.

"A wall cloud is forming less than half a mile away!" Seconds later she's on the phone with all of us at WeatherNation, narrating the tornado, "debris is being thrown up into the air. It IS a tornado." I can hear her father, Tom, in the background "We have debris. Yes, we have minor debris!" It reminded me a little of the movie, Twister. I was just happy he didn't say "cows....we have COWS!" Remember that scene? Yes, that would be odd to hear coming from South Mpls, come to think of it.

WeatherNation meteorologist Kristin Clark, who captured the tornado that formed over South Minneapolis around 2 pm Wednesday afternoon. The video can be seen at mnweathercenter.org.


So the tornado lasts maybe 2-3 minutes before getting completely wrapped in rain. It probably "occluded", the warm updraft literally choking to death by rain and hail-cooled air. My friend, Doug Williams, who works as a patent litigator at Fulbright Partners in downtown Minneapolis, reported seeing flying debris from his high-rise office building around 2:20! What the tornado sucked up over S. Minneapolis it probably dropped right on the downtown. I can't help but mention that the tornado circulation appeared to have passed directly over WCCO-TV's studios downtown.

What does this prove? Well, it's good to be lucky, and Kristin was in the right place at the right time. In her words "I'm no longer a tornado virgin." Amen to that. It also underscores the fact that tornadoes can and do hit major cities. Just because you live in a metropolitan area does not mean you're immune from a tornado risk. A few high rise buildings, more asphalt and concrete is NOT a tornado deterrent.

Wednesday's freak-downtown-tornado also underscores the fact that Doppler radar isn't perfect. It works best on the big (EF2 to EF5) tornadoes. Many times the smaller twisters, the EF0s and EF1s will get "lost in the sauce"; it's very difficult trying to catch every tornado of this size in advance. The bottom line: there's still no substitute for common sense. Even if the sirens aren't sounding, if you see clouds rotating, lowering to the ground, if you're witnessing debris being tossed up into the air, do the right thing and head for safety!

And in Kristin's defense, she's a smart gal: she could see - instantly - the tornado was moving away from her, racing north toward the downtown skyline at close to 30 mph. As much as we all liked watching her video, nothing is worth putting your life at risk, no more how dramatic the visuals.

Drought-denting Rains. Check out the accumulated rainfall from yesterday's storm, raw data courtesy of the Twin Cities (MPX) National Weather Service. The north metro saw the heaviest rains, over 1.5" for parts of Wright, northern Hennepin and Anoka counties. But much heavier (3-5") amounts, showing up as shades of red, soaked Princeton, Mora and Sandstone. Chisago and Isanti counties saw some of the heaviest rains, a blessing, considering that's where "extreme" drought conditions were reported before today. Another area of flooding rains was reported over west central MN, some 5-6" rainfall estimates between Appleton and Milan. That's almost 2 months worth of rain in one day.

Other rainfall amounts

Twin Cities (MSP Aiport) 1.39"

Eden Prairie (Flying Cloud) 1.54"

Crystal 1.97"

St. Paul 1.04"

St. Cloud .98"

Duluth 2.34"

Brainerd .09"

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, windy and cooler - showers likely, especially PM hours. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 68

Thursday night: Cool, damp and breezy, a few more sprinkles. Low: 57

Friday: More clouds than sun, another PM shower or sprinkle - still breezy and autumnlike. High: 70

Saturday: A mix of clouds and sun, less wind - nicer day to be outside. High: 77

Sunday: Mostly sunny and warmer, extremely lake-worthy! High: 82

Monday: Warm sun, few complaints. High: 85

Tuesday: Showers, possible thunderstorms. High: near 80

Wednesday: Showers give way to clearing, a cooler breeze kicks in. High: 75

Preliminary Damage Reports from the NWS. Tornadoes show up as red, wind damage (undetermined) as orange, hail damage as green dots. Check in with the local NWS office today for updates on the tornado outbreak. The Chanhassen NWS office home page is here.

Damage Reports from Wednesday

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
921 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM TSTM WND DMG MINNEAPOLIS 44.96N 93.27W
08/19/2009 HENNEPIN MN AMATEUR RADIO

TREES DOWN ON HOUSES AT 37TH AND 5TH AVE SO. AND ALSO AT
38TH AND 4TH AVE. SO. AND AT PORTLAND AVE SO AND 35TH

0220 PM TSTM WND DMG MINNEAPOLIS 44.96N 93.27W
08/19/2009 HENNEPIN MN EMERGENCY MNGR

ROOF OFF HOUSE, LARGE TREE BLOCKING ROAD AND POWER POLES
DOWN AT PORTLAND AND 35TH AVE SOUTH.

0220 PM TSTM WND DMG MINNEAPOLIS 44.96N 93.27W
08/19/2009 HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

2 HOMES DAMAGED, 3 GARAGES DESTROYED, AND 2 FT DIAMETER
TREES DOWN NEAR PORTLAND AVE AND 4TH AVE SOUTH. ALSO 2
GARAGES DAMAGED AT INTERSECTION OF PARK AVE AND 47TH...
AND 2 HOUSES DAMAGED AT 48TH AND PARK AVE.

0220 PM TSTM WND DMG MINNEAPOLIS 44.96N 93.27W
08/19/2009 HENNEPIN MN EMERGENCY MNGR

LOTS OF TREES REPORTED DAMAGED FROM 4TH FRANKLIN TO 4TH
AND PORTLAND. HEARD OF REPORTED DAMAGE AT 15TH AND
PORTLAND NEAR THE CONVENTION CENTER.

0227 PM TSTM WND DMG MINNEAPOLIS 44.96N 93.27W
08/19/2009 HENNEPIN MN AMATEUR RADIO

TIME IS RECEIVED TIME OF DAMAGE. TREES AND POLES DOWN AT
37TH AND 5TH AVE. SO. HEARD OF POSSIBLE DAMAGE TO
COMMERCIAL AND RESIDENTIAL ROOFS TOO.

0240 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N HASTINGS 44.76N 92.85W
08/19/2009 WASHINGTON MN EMERGENCY MNGR

ONE ROOF OF A HOME DAMAGED AT 122ND ST COURT SOUTH.
DECK...GARAGE DOOR AND PLAYGROUND EQUIPMENT ALSO DAMAGED
IN VICINITY.

0243 PM TORNADO COTTAGE GROVE 44.82N 92.93W
08/19/2009 WASHINGTON MN EMERGENCY MNGR

TORNADO ON GROUND AT HIGHWAY 61 HIGHWAY 95/MANNING AVE.
REPORTED BY DAKOTA COUNTY EOC. TREE DAMAGE AT RIVER OAKS
GOLF COURSE. ALSO COTTAGE GROVE POLICE SAW FUNNEL HIT
GROUND AND REMAIN ON THE GROUND FOR 100 YARDS NEAR LOCK
RIDGE AVE AT 240 PM. TREES UP TO 3 FEET IN DIAMETER
DOWNED AND WINDOWS BROKEN IN THIS AREA.

0246 PM HEAVY RAIN BLOOMINGTON 44.83N 93.32W
08/19/2009 U0.00 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

NORMANDALE SERVICE ROAD FLOODED BETWEEN I494 AND WEST
84TH STR.

0250 PM TSTM WND DMG BROOKLYN PARK 45.11N 93.35W
08/19/2009 HENNEPIN MN AMATEUR RADIO

TREES DOWN AT HWY 252 AND 85TH STR.

0255 PM TSTM WND DMG MARINE ON ST CROIX 45.20N 92.77W
08/19/2009 WASHINGTON MN EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN AND TUNNEL BLOCKED ON OSTROM TRAIL NORTH/CO RD
4. TREES ALSO DOWN EAST OF TUNNEL. TIME ESTIMATED.

0255 PM HEAVY RAIN BLOOMINGTON 44.83N 93.32W
08/19/2009 U0.00 INCH HENNEPIN MN AMATEUR RADIO

ONE FOOT OF WATER ON I494 IN BOTH DIRECTIONS AT I494 AND
LYNDALE AVE. SO.

0305 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N HUDSON 44.98N 92.74W
08/19/2009 ST. CROIX WI AMATEUR RADIO

LINE OF POWER POLES LEANING ONTO ROAD - ALMOST TOUCHING
ROAD AT COUNTY RD. A AND DORWIN RD. EVENT TIME IS
ESTIMATED.

0305 PM TSTM WND DMG HUDSON 44.97N 92.74W
08/19/2009 ST. CROIX WI AMATEUR RADIO

TREES DOWN AT COUNTY RD. UU AND LARSON LANE. TIME OF
EVENT IS ESTIMATED.

0330 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 E HUDSON 44.97N 92.72W
08/19/2009 ST. CROIX WI AMATEUR RADIO

4 INCH BRANCHES IN ROAD AND WHOLE TREES DOWN ON HWY 12
ONE HALF TO ONE MILE EAST OF HUDSON.

0343 PM HEAVY RAIN 8 WNW ISANTI 45.53N 93.41W
08/19/2009 M5.50 INCH ISANTI MN TRAINED SPOTTER

5.5 INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED BY SPOTTER IN SPENCER BROOK.


0345 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 S BRUNSWICK 45.72N 93.29W
08/19/2009 M4.40 INCH ISANTI MN TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 330 AM.

0400 PM TSTM WND DMG NORTH BRANCH 45.51N 92.98W
08/19/2009 CHISAGO MN EMERGENCY MNGR

DAMAGE TO MIDDLE SCHOOL ROOF. BLEACHERS ALSO DRAGGED AND
OVERTURNED AT SCHOOL. TELEPHONE POLES DOWNED ALONG
HIGHWAY 95. ON EAST SIDE OF TOWN BY HWY 95...TREES UP TO
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER DOWNED AND SCATTERED SHEETS OF METAL
LAYING AROUND. TIME ESTIMATED.

0405 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 WNW BRAHAM 45.74N 93.24W
08/19/2009 M6.00 INCH KANABEC MN TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL

0411 PM TORNADO FOREST 45.14N 92.26W
08/19/2009 ST. CROIX WI TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO ON GROUND AT HWY 64 AT HWY 63 INTERSECTION.

0415 PM TORNADO 2 N FOREST 45.17N 92.26W
08/19/2009 ST. CROIX WI TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO STILL ON GROUND AT INTERSECTION OF 270TH STR. AND
20TH AVE.

0420 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 SSE QUAMBA 45.87N 93.15W
08/19/2009 M4.40 INCH KANABEC MN TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL TOTAL IN 12 HOURS. MUD CREEK IS OUT OF ITS
BANKS.

0435 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NW ESDAILE 44.65N 92.48W
08/19/2009 PIERCE WI TRAINED SPOTTER

DAMAGE TO CROPS AND TREES AT THE INTERSECTION OF V AND D

0454 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SSW CAMBRIDGE 45.49N 93.25W
08/19/2009 M3.50 INCH ISANTI MN TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL OCCURED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.

0515 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SSW CAMBRIDGE 45.49N 93.25W
08/19/2009 M3.50 INCH ISANTI MN TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL OCCURED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.

0628 PM TORNADO 3 E SPRINGFIELD 44.24N 94.92W
08/19/2009 BROWN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED SEEING FUNNEL CLOUDS
AND OCCASIONAL TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS BETWEEN SPRINGFIELD AND
LEVANWORTH. REPORTS RECEIVED BETWEEN 628 AND 643 PM.

0759 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 N GOOD THUNDER 44.04N 94.07W
08/19/2009 BLUE EARTH MN AMATEUR RADIO

SPOTTER LOOKING NORTH FROM COUNTY ROAD 66 ESTIMATING
FUNNEL CLOUD IS 2 MILES NORTH OF GOOD THUNDER.