Sunday, May 31, 2009

Growing Drought

(Update: 5:25 pm) Doppler radar shows a few very light showers/sprinkles near St. Cloud (the air so dry much of this isn't even reaching the ground, it's evaporating first). A line of more formidable/heavy showers and embedded T-storms is showing up near Brainerd and Aitkin, capable of 1/2" hail and wind gusts over 50 mph. The Brainerd Lakes area is already seeing some rough showers/storms, and although the brunt of this heavy weather will pass off north and east of St. Cloud and the Twin Cities, we can't rule out a heavier shower or T-storm here after 7 pm or so. We'll take the rain - much of central MN is too dry, and the Twin Cities metro area is now in a SEVERE drought.


Unless we get significant rain later today (doubtful, I think we'll see just enough to settle the dust) this will wind up being the third driest May on record for much of Minnesota, the driest since 1934. That's right: Dustbowl Days Dry. Does this mean a rerun of the mid 30s, when toxic clouds of boiling dust roamed the high plains, blotting out the sun, scraping millions of tons of precious topsoil off fields and depositing it hundreds of miles downwind? Of course not. We're still relatively early in the summer season, but I don't see any large-scale shift in the pattern until after June 7-8, at the earliest. Our relatively cool spell will linger most of next week, highs ranging from 60s (north) to 70s (south), chilly enough for jackets and sweatshirts up at the cabin for the first weekend in June. What's up with that? Some are blaming the lack of sunspot activity on the sun; the most quiet period for sunspots and solar flares since the 1920s. That could be creating a cool bias across much of North America, but scientists aren't exactly sure.






Latest severe weather outlook from SPC, slight risk for all of central and southern MN, including the Twin Cities. They calculate a 30% probability of severe weather (58 mph+ winds or hail larger than 1" in diameter) within 25 miles of any point within the shaded area. Bottom line: it's ripe for a few isolated severe cells later today, but low dew points, a lack of humid, muggy air, should prevent a widespread severe storm outbreak. That said, stay alert and keep an eye out for a few fleeting rough storms later today, best chance after about 4 or 5 pm. Storms should fire up over western Minnesota by early afternoon, then track east, intensifying as they approach St. Cloud and the Twin Cities.


Weather Headlines for the Twin Cities

* Near 80 later today with warm winds (blowing from the southwest at 15-30 mph.)

* Slight chance of strong/severe storms later today, best chance after 3 pm.

* Any rainfall should be light and spotty, probably less than .05" in most neighborhoods.

* Wind shift to the north/northwest pulls cooler air into town Monday, 15 degrees cooler under a blue sky.

* Dry weather prevails most of next week, temperatures average 5 degrees or more below normal.

* Light jacket weather next weekend? Long-range guidance hinting at conditions more typical of early May than early June. Frost risk up in the Boundary Waters?

* Some early signs of real (80-degree) warmth returning the second week of June.

* Much of Minnesota on-track to experience the driest May since 1934, third driest on record.

* Moderate drought lingers over much of southeastern MN, drought becomes severe over east metro of the Twin Cities - dry conditions spread west to St. Cloud, Willmar area in the last week.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Hazy sun, windy and warm. Risk of an afternoon shower or T-storm. A few isolated storms may turn severe later today. Winds: SW 15-30+ High: 83

Tonight: Evening shower or storm, then drying out late. Low: 55

Monday: Sunny and refreshingly cool. High: 71

Tuesday: Plenty of sun, still dry (and cooler than average). High: 68

Wednesday: Mix of clouds and sun, a bit milder. High: 71

Thursday: Partly cloudy, closer to "average". High: 75

Friday: A passing shower or thundershower, breezy and cooler. High: 66

Saturday: Bright sun much of the day, but cool. High: 66 (holding in the 50s far north).

Sunday: Still dry, plenty of sun on tap. High: 69

Saturday, May 30, 2009

Brilliant Saturday, Severe Sunday?

Satellite update as of noon, Saturday. Last night's showery front is kicking up rain (and lightning) in the Chicago area, potentially interfering with flights at O'Hare and Midway. A bubble of Canadian high pressure treats Minnesota to brilliant sunshine, a fresh breeze, low humidity, and temperatures close to average for late May.

Sunday will be a different story - a warm southwesterly wind (gusting to 30 mph) will lure temperatures well into the 80s, it will finally feel like summer out there again. But with the warmth, gusty winds and rising humidity levels will come a slight risk of severe storms. The SPC has most of central and southern Minnesota in a "slight risk" of severe storms. If you're heading out on the lake Sunday stay alert, tune in a local radio station, keep scanning the sky for towering thunderheads off on the western horizon, and be ready to head to shore in a hurry!





Weather Headlines

* Dry May for much of MN, especially southeastern and east central counties, potentially the driest since 1934. Third driest on record for many counties south/east of St. Cloud.

* Bright sun, northwest breeze (10-20 mph) and low humidity Saturday afternoon, winds ease up considerably by evening.

* Jacket weather tonight: lows dip into the 40s outside of town.

* Sunday: 10-15 degrees warmer, highs reach the 80s, winds gust past 30 mph.

* Slight severe storm risk central/southern Minnesota Sunday afternoon, isolated hail, even a stray tornado can't be ruled out.

* Rainfall amounts up to .10" Sunday night with the next cool frontal passage.

* Cooler start to the week Monday and Tuesday, temperatures run cooler than normal much of next week into the first weekend of June.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Sunny, breezy and pleasant. Winds: NW 10-20. Winds subside a bit by evening. High: 74

Tonight: Clear and cool. Low: 48

Sunday: Windy and warm with fading sun. T-storms by late afternoon/evening may be strong to severe. Winds: S/SW 15-35. High: 86

Monday: Damp start, then partly sunny and breezy. High: near 70

Tuesday: Mix of clouds and sun, cooler than average. High: 68

Wednesday: Bright sun, less wind. High: 72

Thursday: Less sun, milder. High: 75

Friday: Slight chance of a passing shower. High: 73

Saturday: Plenty of sun, still trending cooler than average. High: 69

Sunday: Partly cloudy, odds favor dry weather much of the day. High: near 70

Friday, May 29, 2009

Salvaging MOST of the weekend

(update: 4:30 pm). Doppler radar shows a band of light/moderate showers streaking southeastward, reaching St. Cloud by 5 pm, into the Twin Cities between 7 and 7:30, capable of 10-15 minutes worth of rain and some gusty winds. Earlier, there was evidence of some lightning, even pea-size hail within a few of these cells, but a lack of moisture (fuel) near the ground is going to limit how intense these storms become. The better chance of strong/severe storms will come Sunday PM hours - much of northwestern MN is under a "slight risk" of isolated severe storms. Keep that in mind as you plan your outdoor activities on Sunday, it may get a little rough out there later in the day.




Weather Headlines

* A few evening showers between 7 and 8 pm, 20 minutes of rain, not much rainfall expected, maybe .01 to .05".

* Damp start early Saturday, but the sun should be out much of the day, low humidity, a fresh northwest breeze at 10-20 mph under a mostly-blue sky. Not bad at all with highs in the low 70s by 4 pm.

* Next chance of showers/T-storms comes late Sunday and Sunday night, a few may be severe, especially northwestern and central MN.

* Weekend temperatures should run a few degrees below average (mostly 60s for highs up north).

* Dry the first half of next week, but more showers/storms return by next Thursday and Friday.

* Potential for a partly-puddly spell of weather next weekend.

Paul's Outlook

Tonight: A few evening showers. Low: 54

Saturday: Plenty of sun, breezy and pleasant. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 72

Saturday night: Mostly clear, comfortable. Low: 50

Sunday: Warm sun much of the day. More showers, possible thunder late Sunday and Sunday night. A few strong/severe storms can't be ruled out late. High: 81

Monday: Lingering showers, possibly heavy. Then gradual clearing. High: 72

Tuesday: Mix of clouds and sun, a little cooler than average for June 2. High: 73

Wednesday: Lingering sun, still quite pleasant. High: near 70

Thursday: Growing chance of showers and T-storms. High: 75



The National Weather Service has some great web resources. This is one of them, an hour by hour forecast of cloud cover, temperature, dew point, wind direction and speed, and a probability of precipitation. For the very latest information click here. Trust me, this is one site you may want to bookmark for future viewing!


48-Hour Period Starting:

Date05/29





















05/30
Hour (CDT)010203040506070809101112131415161718192021222300
Temperature (°F)626158545149535660636769717273747473727067656361
Dewpoint (°F)414040403940404141424445464645444342414142434344
Wind Chill (°F)




47

















Wind (mph)887776666666677788888776
Wind DirNNNNNNNNNNWNNWNNWNWNWNWWNWWNWWWWWWWWWNW
Gust























Sky Cover (%)676664646566676662595552505049484747464851545760
Pcpn. Potential (%)202020252525171717171717131313131313222222222222
Rel. Humidity (%)454751576468615551474342413937343333333540454853
Thunder------------------------------------SChcSChcSChcSChcSChcSChc
RainSChcSChcSChcChcChcChcSChcSChcSChcSChcSChcSChc------------SChcSChcSChcSChcSChcSChc
Snow------------------------------------------------
Freezing Rain------------------------------------------------
Sleet------------------------------------------------

Date






















05/31
Hour (CDT)010203040506070809101112131415161718192021222300
Temperature (°F)605857565555566063666971737475767675747168656361
Dewpoint (°F)454546464646464544434241414141424343444444444444
Wind Chill (°F)























Wind (mph)6666666791013141515141413111098765
Wind DirWNWWNWWWWWWWWNWWNWNWNWNWNNWNNWNNWNNWNNWNNWNNWNNNENEENE
Gust























Sky Cover (%)616263646154504948474644444342413938373738383838
Pcpn. Potential (%)222222222222141414141414111111111111121212121212
Rel. Humidity (%)586267697272695850433734313029303132343842465053
ThunderSChcSChcSChcSChcSChcSChc------------------------------------
RainSChcSChcSChcSChcSChcSChc------------------------------------
Snow------------------------------------------------
Freezing Rain------------------------------------------------
Sleet------------------------------------------------



Tricky Weekend Pattern

Weather Headlines

* Mostly dry Friday shaping up, but clouds increase later today. Some rain likely tonight as a weak, clipper-like system moves through.

* Damp start early Saturday, but the sun should be out much of the midday/PM hours

* Next chance of showers/T-storms comes late Sunday and Sunday night.

* Weekend temperatures should run a few degrees below average (mostly 60s for highs up north).

* Dry the first half of next week, but more showers/storms return by next Thursday and Friday.

* Potential for a partly-puddly spell of weather next weekend.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Sunshine much of the day. Clouds increase by late afternoon. Winds: West 5-15. High: 74

Tonight: Good chance of showers. Low: 54

Saturday: Damp start, then increasingly sunny, a bit windier. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 75

Sunday: Sun much of the day. More showers, possible thunder late Sunday and Sunday night. High: 78

Monday: Plenty of sun, slightly cooler, less humid. High: 72

Tuesday: Mix of clouds and sun, a little cooler than average for June 2. High: 73

Wednesday: Lingering sun, still quite pleasant. High: near 70

Thursday: Growing chance of showers and T-storms. High: 75



The National Weather Service has some great web resources. This is one of them, an hour by hour forecast of cloud cover, temperature, dew point, wind direction and speed, and a probability of precipitation. For the very latest information click here. Trust me, this is one site you may want to bookmark for future viewing!


48-Hour Period Starting:

Date05/29





















05/30
Hour (CDT)010203040506070809101112131415161718192021222300
Temperature (°F)626158545149535660636769717273747473727067656361
Dewpoint (°F)414040403940404141424445464645444342414142434344
Wind Chill (°F)




47

















Wind (mph)887776666666677788888776
Wind DirNNNNNNNNNNWNNWNNWNWNWNWWNWWNWWWWWWWWWNW
Gust























Sky Cover (%)676664646566676662595552505049484747464851545760
Pcpn. Potential (%)202020252525171717171717131313131313222222222222
Rel. Humidity (%)454751576468615551474342413937343333333540454853
Thunder------------------------------------SChcSChcSChcSChcSChcSChc
RainSChcSChcSChcChcChcChcSChcSChcSChcSChcSChcSChc------------SChcSChcSChcSChcSChcSChc
Snow------------------------------------------------
Freezing Rain------------------------------------------------
Sleet------------------------------------------------

Date






















05/31
Hour (CDT)010203040506070809101112131415161718192021222300
Temperature (°F)605857565555566063666971737475767675747168656361
Dewpoint (°F)454546464646464544434241414141424343444444444444
Wind Chill (°F)























Wind (mph)6666666791013141515141413111098765
Wind DirWNWWNWWWWWWWWNWWNWNWNWNWNNWNNWNNWNNWNNWNNWNNWNNNENEENE
Gust























Sky Cover (%)616263646154504948474644444342413938373738383838
Pcpn. Potential (%)222222222222141414141414111111111111121212121212
Rel. Humidity (%)586267697272695850433734313029303132343842465053
ThunderSChcSChcSChcSChcSChcSChc------------------------------------
RainSChcSChcSChcSChcSChcSChc------------------------------------
Snow------------------------------------------------
Freezing Rain------------------------------------------------
Sleet------------------------------------------------