Ready, Set, Snow!

Snow enthusiasts and armchair meteorologists should be having fun with this one, I know I am. By all rights, this has been a classic, Upper Midwest, snowstorm in the making and it continues to develop. I have been impressed by the consistency in the weather models over the past few days and from run to run (Of the several weather models we pour over in situations like this, we get up to 4 runs from those specific models each day). Most of the time the weather models, crunching long mathematical and physical equations, bounce all over the place until the day of an event and even then, sometimes, they don't get it right. But this time, confidence is fairly high as we step out onto that ever growing "Limb". Winter Weather Headlines have been posted from here to Tim Buck Two, see image below:



Upper Midwest to See Heavy Snow:

Snow will begin Tuesday, but will pick up, in earnest, through the overnight hours tonight and early morning hours tomorrow. The Twin Cities will be on the northern fringes of this storm, so the brunt of the snow is likely to miss us, but we still are under a Winter Storm Warning until Wednesday afternoon. Here's a closer look at the Winter Weather Headlines for the Upper Midwest. Note the red colors in south central MN and northeastern IA, these are Blizzard Watches where heavy snow is expected to accumulate to near 6" to 10" through Wednesday with strong winds gusting from 40mph to 50mph by Wednesday afternoon creating near 0 mile visibility for several hours. Though, be advised that most everybody in the Winter Storm Warning (pink coloring) has the potential of 4" to 8" by Wednesday afternoon. Travel will be quite a headache for Tuesday evenings commute growing into an even bigger headache by Wednesday mornings commute and Wednesday evenings commute, but by the middle and end of the day Wednesday - blowing and drifting snow will be the biggest threat. Get that Winter Survival Kit in the car if your travel plans take you anywhere south and east Tuesday and Wednesday.



Rapid Intensification of a Low Pressure System or "Bombogenesis"

This is neat, we don’t see this too often in the Midwest. Take a look at the following forecast (surface maps) at these two different time periods and keep an eye on the low near the Oklahoma Panhandle in image #1 and near the Great Lakes in image #2. There is a term in the weather world for rapid intensification of a Mid-Latitude Cyclone or low pressure system and it is called “Bombogenesis” – classified as a low that drops its central pressure by 24mb or more in a 24hr period, essentially 1mb per hour for 24 hours. The typically happens with Nor’Easters, a little more rare for Midwest storms and to see it happen is always exciting.

Tuesday @ 6pm – Central Pressure 998mb

Wednesday @ 6pm – Central Pressure 973mb

As storms deepen/intensify the air rushes into the middle of the storm, converges and is sent upwards, causing "Lift" for precipitation to form. The stronger the storm, the stronger the winds blow. In our case, rapid intensification of this low will mean a steady increase in winds through the day, which will quickly become windy tonight through tomorrow.


Cold Air to Follow

The heart of the Arctic air is on our side of the globe and it found its way into the Canadian Prairie Provinces – note the crazy color scheme (turning yellowish and greenish) just north of Ontario and Saskatchewan – THIS IS REALLY COLD AIR - the coldest of the season so far. It will modify and head south into the lower 48 by the middle and end of this week. Temperatures, in fact, will be dropping through the day on Wednesday and overnight lows through the weekend will likely be in the single digits above and below zero.

Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Mostly cloudy with snow developing by mid to late morning. Accumulations of around 1" to 2" by 6pm. Becoming breezy by the afternoon. High 21

Tonight: Snow likely, accumulations of 2" to 4" - strong northwest winds causing blowing and drifting snow through the night. Low: 14

Wednesday: Snow continues through early afternoon with an additional 1" to 2" of fluff possible, but hard to measure as winds howl from the west/northwest 20mph to 40mph. Blowing and drifting snow continues. High: 14, falling through the day.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with perhaps a few flurries. Not as windy, but much colder. High:10

Friday: Mix of clouds and sun. High: 14

Saturday: Still cold, flurries possible. High: 13

Sunday: Partly sunny, light snow. High: 16

First Big One of the Season - Looking Good

First Big One of the Season - Looking Good

Snow lovers, here we go... You'll get your wish this week. The rumors are true, snow is on the way. A developing winter storm continues to take aim on southeastern Minnesota. Now is the time to get that winter 'stuff' from the back of the closet and from the deepest/darkest part of your garage. Accumulating (shovelable) snow is looking likely for most of us in central and southern Minnesota, but the heaviest of it still appears to be across far southeastern Minnesota. Take a look at the winter weather headlines:


This storm is much bigger/larger than any typical storm meandering through the Upper Midwest, so snow will be spreading northward through the morning hours of Tuesday and will linger through Wednesday. The duration of the storm and the temperature profile will be favorable for fluffy accumulations. A quick and dirty snow to water ratio is 10:1, meaning that for every 1" of liquid there would be 10" of snow. This time, temperatures are colder and the snow to water ratio is around 15:1. Interestingly, the models seem to bring the storm a little farther north with each passing run, so east central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin could see a little more than previously thought.


Moisture Gathers in the West
This is neat - my good friend, Rich Koivisto (originally from Duluth, MN) recently moved to Nevada and took this picture early Sunday morning of "Crepuscular Rays"


The reason why this is so interesting is because the clouds seen here are from the same storm that will be bringing snow to our backyards Tuesday and Wednesday. At the point this picture was taken, the storms was just getting its act together... neat huh? Stay tuned to the latest forecasts, especially if you have travel plans east or southeast over the next couple of days.


Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Mostly cloudy with flurries possible early. High 20

Tonight: Mostly cloudy and chilly. Low:11

Tuesday: Snow developing later, mainly south - accumulations likely. High 21

Wednesday: Snow continues, turning windy with blowing snow - accumulations likely. High 17

Thursday: Brighter, sunnier and colder. High 14

Friday: Partly cloudy, still cold. High 18

Saturday: Cold sunshine. High 15

Snowy Week Ahead?

Snowy Week Ahead?

Absolutely! It will be... for some. I have to admit, I'm a little intrigued by this weeks extended model runs. We went from the 2nd warmest November on record to (like a switch) below average for these first few days of December. We are definitely cold enough for snow, now we just need some moisture. The jet stream, or strong upper level winds, are situated in a way that will bring moisture, finally, to the Upper Midwest. In fact, there will be several chances of snow knocking on our door, but it appears the heaviest of the snow will be well south of us. The first weak system strolls through Sunday night/early Monday morning and brings southern Minnesota a light fluffing of snow, but the second - more intense - storm is the one to watch. Like the first one, it too will stay well south of the Minnesota/Iowa border, but this one will be much larger and spread moisture farther north.

See here:

Another view here:

Keeping an Eye on the Moisture this Week:
This is the 5 day QPF or quantitative Precipitation Outlook from NOAA - notice the light and dark green coloring over central and southern Minnesota. This is where there is 0.10" to a little more than 0.25" of moisture. A quick and dirty snow to water ratio is 10:1 - meaning for every 1" of liquid water available, you'd have 10" of snow. Going with that, we'd have anywhere from 1" to 3" of snow in these areas. However, the temperatures are going to be quite chilly so the snow to water ratio should be a little higher and the track of the storm still isn't certain. Winter Storm Watches will likely be posted over the next day or two for places to our south. 6" of snow or more is certainly likely for central and southern Iowa, but we'll see how far that system lifts north. Winter headlines may still be posted for locations close to home... Stay tuned!

Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Thickening clouds, perhaps a flurry or two late. High 24

Monday: Mostly cloudy with flurries possible early. High 23

Tuesday: Snow developing late, mainly south. High 21

Wednesday: Chance of snow continues, turning colder. High 17

Thursday: Brighter, sunnier and colder. High 15

Friday: Partly cloudy, still cold. High 18

Historic Snowfall - Just Not Here

Historic Snowfall - Just Not Here

Temperatures were cold enough yesterday for snow in TEXAS! Would you believe that is snowed in Galveston? In fact, Houston Texas recorded it's earliest snowfall ever on record. They beat the previous earliest snowfall record of December 10th, 2008 and 1944. This was the same cold front that cooled us off over the past couple of days. I am seriously amazed that it snowed along the Gulf Coast - aren't you? Look at where Houston and Galveston are located:


Snow Chances Increase for MN
Temperatures continue to remain cool (cold enough for snow) and the next 5 to 7 days brings several chances of accumulating snow to the Upper Midwest, but it appears that most of it will stay just to our south. The MN/IA border should receive the brunt of it, but we may still see our fair share, so stay tuned.

Here's the WRF - over the next 84 hours

Here's the GFS - over the next 180 hours


QPF - Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
The image below represents the amount of accumulated precipitation (melted to liquid) over the next 5 days (thru 6pm Wednesday). The amounts across central and southern Minnesota are quite a bit less than what they were earlier, but the next two storms that plow through the Upper Mississippi Valley are ones to watch. As of now, our 10 to 1 ratio with up to 0.10" of liquid would bring us to only 1" of snow through 6pm Tuesday.


Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Chilly sunshine. High: 26

Tonight: Increasing clouds and cold. Low: around 12

Sunday: Increasing clouds, light snow chance increasing by afternoon. High 24

Monday: A few light snow showers possible, mainly south. High 24

Tuesday: Chance of snow showers. High 23

Wednesday: Chance of snow continues. High 21

Thursday: More sunshine. High 22

More Than Just Flurries?

More Than Just Flurries?

Yesterday's snowfall of 0.1" (officially at the Twin Cities Airport) was the most snow we've seen since October 12th (2.5" on that day), nearly a month and a half ago. We are about 8.5" behind normal snowfall for the season and the deficit continues to grow. Would you believe that yesterday's high temperature of 27 degrees was below average for the first time in over a month? We were only a few degrees below average, but it felt much colder since we haven't seen temperatures like this for quite some time. Get used to it - today will be slightly cooler.

Current Snow Pack:
The image below comes from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center -WHEW- notice that the Twin Cities has little to no snow pack at all. Again, we are well below normal snowfall for the season and the lack of snow is keeping temperatures warmer than what they'd normally be if we had 6" to 12" of snow already on the ground. This is kinda neat - take a look at the snow depth over the past two weeks - most of the snow in Minnesota appeared within the past few days (be patient, it takes a little while to animate thru two weeks of data)


Fear Not!
For those of you who are worried about not having a white Christmas, fear not, odds favor at least an inch of snow on the ground. In fact, the odds are pretty good - 75% to 80% - take a look at the image below:


More than just flurries possible Sunday-Monday:
Our next best chance of snow slides in Sunday night/Monday. This may be more than just flurries for some of us. Light accumulations are possible, but it's still a bit early to tell where and how much. Again, not much is expected, but it could be a little more than what we saw yesterday... Stay tuned.


Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Mostly cloudy, not as breezy, but still a few flakes. High: 24

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, chilly. Low: 15

Saturday: Chilly sunshine. High: 31

Sunday: Increasing cloud, light snow chance increasing by afternoon. High 30

Monday: Scattered snow showers, light accumulations possible. High 27

Tuesday: Partly sunny, getting colder. High 26

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 25

Is It Cold In Here or Is It Just Me?

Is It Cold In Here or Is It Just Me?

Sure it's cold, but this is -nutin! Could you image what this would be like if there was a good 12" of snow on the ground from here to the the North Pole? Deep snow pack has a unique way of chilling an air mass by reflecting most of the incoming solar radiation back to space. Where there is no daylight, like around the Arctic Circle, the cold air mass continues to grow and get colder until it gets dislodged. Interestingly, part of that cold air has been dislodged right into the Upper Midwest. Check out this satellite animation:

Large storms wrapping up near the Gulf of Alaska and Alaska's Aleutian Islands are sending the jet stream or strong upper level winds well north into Canada, which is dislodging chunks of the Arctic air, in waves, and sending them southeastward.


Here's some color for you:
(Looking at the northern hemisphere)
The image below shows exactly where the heart of the Arctic air is. It may be hard to see what we are looking at here, but the north pole is right in the center of the image. Notice the faint white lines... those are land masses and the outlined land mass in the center, near the bottom of the image is the U.S. - Asia is located just opposite that in the center near the top... Can you see it?? Next look at the colors. Notice the purple and pink colors just north of Alaska. This is where overnight lows are dropping into the 40's and 50's below zero! That is the heart of the Arctic air. Also notice the "L" located near the Aleutian Islands of Alaska (outlined in the black line contours) This is the same low that I've depicted in the graphic above. The light blue coloring over the Upper Midwest is some of the coldest air we've seen so far this season, but again, it's -nutin!


Take a look at what the extended weather models are depicting at days 7-10:

The blob of purples and pinks are in and just north of the Canadian Prairie Provinces. The darker blue coloring is in Minnesota and THIS is when I think we'll see our first sub-zero low temperature across central and northern Minnesota. Time frame would be Tuesday night - Friday morning of NEXT week. We'll have to wait and see if this pans out, but it is interesting to look at the weather maps from this perspective isn't it?


Weather Conditions Today:
Low clouds and and cool temperatures will squeeze out a few flurries across the region today. Accumulations are not likely, except along the south shore of Lake Superior. The light blue color indicates light snow/flurries.



Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Feeling quite chilly, single digit wind chill values through the middle morning hours. Lot's of clouds, a few flakes around. High: 27

Tonight: Flurries still possible with single digit wind chill values. Low: 16

Friday: Partly sunny, not as breezy, but still a few flakes. High: 25

Saturday: A few more peeks of sun, feeling like December. High: 27

Sunday: Partly sunny, light snow showers possible. High 28

Monday: Partly sunny, light snow possible. High 27

Tuesday: Cooling down again. High 24

It's the Great Correction, Charlie Brown

It's the Great Correction, Charlie Brown

Acclimation is the key... It happens every year. The first cold snap of the season brings the water cooler chatter to a resounding consensus of cold weather loathings. We've just enjoyed one of the warmest and driest (least snowy) Novembers on record, so these next few days will be a correction or transition period for us. Meteorologists have had it easy for far too long, the weather maps were way too quiet and we can finally take things out of autopilot mode. Now that we're cold enough for snow, combing through the data is a little more interesting. We are still looking for that first big wallop and I don't see any major dumpings any time soon. The sleds stay put for now, but Arctic air is leaking out of the polar regions with some frequency, so many will be happy to see ice forming on area lakes and ponds over the coming days (still way too early to be safe) and ski slopes, anxiously waiting, will finally get those snow machines cranking at full steam... Hello winter.


8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook:
Latest guidance shows a large chunk of Arctic air rotating around the Great Lakes/Hudson Bay, which will send waves of at or below normal temperatures into our backyards here in the Upper Midwest. The 8 to 14 day temperature outlook (which takes us into the 2nd week of December) has us still in the below normal temperature category.



Short Term Weather - Thru Friday
The cold air will stay with us through the rest of the week along with clouds and scattered, wind-whipped, flurries. See animation here. No accumulation is expected, but this cold blast will bring the first real threat of Lake Effect Snow to the Great Lakes. Living in Duluth, MN for 4 years of my life, lake effect snow was an interesting phenomenon to forecast. The lake machine and snow bands (tentacles) will be capable of several inches of snow over the coming days downwind of each of the 5 Great Lakes. The image below shows an intense lake effect event on December 5th, 2000


An event like this is not anticipated, but images like this may become more common place as the Arctic air continues to spill south of the international border.

Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Gusty and colder with a few flurries in the air. High: 33

Tonight: Scattered flurries and chilly. Low: 19

Thursday: Breezy and feeling quite chilly. Lot's of clouds, a few flakes around. High: 25

Friday: Partly sunny, not as breezy, but still a few flakes. High: 25

Saturday: A few more peeks of sun, feeling like December. High: 27

Sunday: Partly cloudy. High 26

Monday: Partly sunny. High 25