Light Snow Potential

After a fairly nice, sub-freezing, semi-thaw yesterday, we'll head right back to the deep freeze this week. The good news is that the blast of Arctic air sliding in for tomorrow won't last too long, we should see temperatures warm already by the middle and end of this week. The Arctic air will ride on a breezy northwesterly wind on the back side of a light snow maker, which will make its way through the Upper Midwest tonight. 1" to 3" of snow is possible through Monday, which may be just enough to mess up the morning commute a little tomorrow. This system is much smaller than the storm that pushed through during the middle of last week. Last weeks storms was rare because such strong winds accompanied the heavy snow over such a large are. That storm blew through will some vigor and everybody knew that something was awry. This time, only a few locations will be affected by the storm in the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes Region.


Weather Map Tonight
Here's the accumulated precipitation from 12am to 6am Monday - note that the heaviest of the precipitation stays across southern Minnesota. This is where the Monday morning commute may get a little hairy.



High Temperatures for Monday
Here are the expected high temperatures on Monday - note the bitterly cold air across northwestern Minnesota and the Dakotas. This is the heart of the Arctic air, which is seeping south of the international border behind the light snow maker. Keep in mind that the coldest part of the week will occur Monday and Tuesday, but that Arctic air will modify some (not be as cold) as it continues to sag southward.


End of the Week Warm-Up
I thought I'd show you this, just so you can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Warmer weather is on the way by Thursday and Friday of this week. Look at the high temperatures across the region for Friday - note the temperatures farther southwest - in the 40's




Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Much colder. Increasing clouds by late afternoon and light snow developing late. High: 18 (falling)

Tonight: Light snow likely, 1" to 3" possible, mainly south. Low: 8

Monday: Snow showers early, then tapering to flurries by afternoon. Turning much colder again. High: 16 (falling)

Tuesday: Bitter sun, feels like late January again. High: 7

Wednesday: Cold start. Partly cloud. High: 13

Thursday: Slight chance of light snow, warmer. High: 21

Friday: Mix of clouds and sun, warmer yet. Highs: Mid to upper 20's

Saturday Special

Soak up the sunshine and milder temperatures today, we certainly deserve it after that Arctic blast. Brr! I think my fingers are finally thawing a bit. Good news, temperatures will stay below freezing for those ponds and lakes to continue making ice. However, a recent report released by the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources said that "As of Dec. 7, no ice in the state is consistently four inches thick, which is the minimum recommended support the weight of a person." Read the full report here:



The MN DNR reminds us that "That no ice is ever 100% safe"


Some cold facts about ice from the DNR

New ice is usually stronger than old ice. Four inches of clear, newly‑formed ice may support one person on foot, while a foot or more of old, partially‑thawed ice may not.

Ice seldom freezes uniformly. It may be a foot thick in one location and only an inch or two just a few feet away.

Ice formed over flowing water and currents is often dangerous. This is especially true near streams, bridges and culverts. Also, the ice on outside river bends is usually weaker due to the undermining effects of the faster current.

The insulating effect of snow slows down the freezing process. The extra weight also reduces how much weight the ice sheet can support. Also, ice near shore can be weaker than ice that is farther out.

Booming and cracking ice isn’t necessarily dangerous. It only means that the ice is expanding and contracting as the temperature changes.

Schools of fish or flocks of waterfowl can also adversely affect the relative safety of ice. The movement of fish can bring warm water up from the bottom of the lake. In the past, this has opened holes in the ice causing snowmobiles and cars to break through.

Snow Depth Around the State

We got a late start making ice and snow this year with the month of November being one of the least snowy and warmest Novembers on record, but here's the thing... The lack of snow significant snow cover across central and northern Minnesota is helping to build the ice a little faster now that we're in the freezer. Snow acts as an insulator, so the more snow we have, the harder it is to make a thick ice cover quickly. For all the snowmobilers out there, we'll get there one step at a time. Winter is definitely here to stay, so the snow will come - just be patient - you'll be able to get that sled out soon enough.

Todd's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Nicer day of the weekend. Fading sun, clouds increase, a bit milder. High: 23

Tonight: Thickening clouds with flurries or light freezing drizzle late, mainly southeast of the Cities. Low: 19

Sunday: Mix of clouds and sun with sunny breaks midday. Increasing clouds by late afternoon and light snow developing late. High: 23

Monday: Snow showers early, then tapering to flurries by afternoon. Turning much colder again. High: 20 (falling)

Tuesday: Bitter sun, feels like late January again. High: 5

Wednesday: Cold start. Partly cloud. High: 14

Thursday: Partly cloudy and warmer. High: 23

Not as Harsh

The superstorm that just hammered a sizable chunk of the USA was unusually large and powerful. At one point it stretched nearly 1,800 miles wide, and as the center of low pressure passed over downtown Chicago the barometric pressure fell to a staggeringly low 28.91" of mercury, or 976 millibars, if you want to get metric on me. According to my friend and WeatherNation colleague, Todd Nelson, that's the lowest pressure observed in 20 years, lower than the storm that sunk the Edmund Fitzgerald in November, 1975. Satellite observations show the massive quantity of snow that fell (10-20" in a wide swath from Missouri and Iowa across southeastern Minnesota and Wisconsin into the U.P. of Michigan). Yes, Wisconsin saw more snow than Minnesota did, for better or worse (first snow day for the University of Wisconsin in Madison in 20 years!) A freakish weather event, or a sign of what's to come? With El Nino we should see more of a moderate Pacific influence much of the winter, at least on paper. The uncomfortable truth? Every El Nino is different, each with it's own idiosyncrasies and quirks, and the ultimate impact on the airmass floating across North America is still very up in the air.




Aftermath. From low-orbit (about 220 miles above the ground) the NASA "Terra" satellite snapped this dramatic shot of snow on the ground from Wednesday's blizzard.


Thursday was character-building indeed, a hearty high of only 5 - after waking up to a brisk -5. The normal high is 28, btw. Great. Thanks for sharing Paul. Officially: 6" of snow on the ground, 2" in St. Cloud and 13" at Eau Claire, Wisconsin. No significant snow accumulation is brewing anytime soon, the only real window for any snowfall coming Saturday night into Sunday night as a milder airmass approaches. Right now it looks like a nuisance snow: under an inch across much of the state (although the GFS model is hinting at 1-3" for parts of central Minnesota). We'll see, but right now I can't get too excited about major storms - all quiet on the western front until further notice. The good news: you may regain some feeling in your face, fingers and other extremities this weekend as highs poke into the 20s. 20s! Spread the news - it's all good.

A colder front surges into town Monday as kind southwest breezes whip around to the northwest, howling at 20-30 mph, pumping "fresh" Canadian air back into town. A numbing start to the week gives way to a late-week warming trend - more 20s, even a shot at 30 by the end of the week. Christmas weather? The GFS weather model is printing out low 30s for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. That's way out there - the crystal ball gets a little murky beyond 14 days. Make that 14 minutes. This is, after all, Minnesota. Land of 10,000 Weather Extremes. A coating of snow Sunday, no butt-kicking storms brewing anytime soon - you'll be amazed how good 20s will feel in about 36 hours. Only in Minnesota!

Statistical odds of a white Christmas across Minnesota. Based on 109 years of (modern-day) record-keeping there is roughly a 75-80% probability of at least 1" of snow or more in the Twin Cities on December 25. That compares to a 100% probability over the Arrowhead and Bemidji area, but in parts of southwestern Minnesota, near Marshall, only 1 out of 2 Christmas Days, on average, are "white." For more information check out the National Weather Service's excellent overview of Christmas Day weather across the state right here.

The debate continues about the hacking of e-mails from the U.K's climate office, with rumors of cover-ups and "ClimateGate". Although showing poor judgment, defensiveness and more than a whiff of arrogance, the e-mail strings don't undo thousands of climate studies conducted worldwide in recent decades. The body of evidence is still overwhelming, and growing by the year. 2009 will probably go down in the records as the 5th warmest year - globally - since 1850. The decade that ends December 31 will go down in the record books as the warmest ever recorded. So all this blather from chronic deniers about "temperatures leveling off or even falling" just doesn't stand up. As I've said before, for some, there will never be enough evidence. Their minds are made up. If another theory comes along that better explains what we're seeing in the global data I'll change my mind. It hasn't happened yet, but I'm leaving the door open. I HOPE there's another explanation! I'm intrigued with the sunspot cycle, and the notion that a lack of sunspots correlates with colder weather for much of North America. The bottom line: keep an open mind, keep soaking up information (preferably from peer-reviewed scientists).

Here are some thoughts from someone I have immense respect for, Professor Mark Seeley, Dept. of Soil, Water and Climate at the U. of Minnesota. Mark is a thoughtful, logical, soft-spoken man who took a fairly long time to be personally convinced that climate change was and is real. He has (correctly) argued that land-use, how man has changed the planet through deforestation, development, agriculture, etc has, in many cases, accelerated climate change, an important factor to consider in addition to greenhouse gas emissions. Prof. Seeley has a weekly blog that is a must-read for anyone serious about tracking Minnesota's weather and climate. You can see his entire post here. I've taken only a snippet of his comments about "ClimateGate" and the hacked e-mails in the U.K. and displayed them below. I think they're timely, relevant, and, as usual, right on the money.

"The labeling of climate change as a political issue has been in existence for decades. The frequent public debates and discussions, especially in the common media, have brought many scientists to the table as adversaries and in some of the written and verbal exchanges there have been personal affronts, degrading remarks, and outright anger. Such exchanges have existed in the science professions for centuries, though often not in such a public manner. After all, science is about hypothesis testing, challenging the results, and retesting, until the truth is no longer disputable. In this public context, some individuals have found their personal integrity and pride shaken and their emotions rise to the surface (everyone of us has a personal tolerance boundary beyond which are emotions may take over our words and actions). Shaken, and angry certain words and actions that reflect bad judgment may come out. I am not suggesting absolute forgiveness, but I think I understand why this happens. In the context of the "body of evidence" used to conclude that climate change is happening and that the human fingerprint is upon it, "climategate" does not negate the science that has been done. It is too voluminous, diverse, and significant to ignore."

- Mark Seeley, University of Minnesota

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Intervals of sun, still harsh for mid December. Winds: SW 10-15. High: 12

Tonight: Patchy clouds, not quite as cold as recent nights. Low: 4

Saturday: Nicer day of the weekend. Fading sun, clouds increase, a bit milder. High: 22

Sunday: Period of light snow/flurries, coating to 1" possible. High: 28

Monday: Blustery, turning much colder again with sunshine. High: 16 (falling)

Tuesday: Bitter sun, feels like late January again. High: 7

Wednesday: Clouds increase, not quite as harsh. High: 14

Numb & Number

Snowfall Totals (for a long, long list showing snow amounts for just about every town, suburb and truck stop in Minnesota scroll down).

Northfield: 9.5"

Woodbury: 8.7"

Lake Elmo: 8"

MSP International: 7.4"

Chaska: 5.4"

Chanhassen: 5.1"


After a close encounter with a blizzard I'm afraid to see what's next on the old weather menu. How 'bout a Big-Gulp serving of fresh-chilled Yukon Surprise (icy pulp included). It was indeed a "plowable" snow for much of the area, 3-4" across central Minnesota (including St. Cloud), more like 6-10" in the Twin Cities area, and a whopping 15"+ for southeastern Minnesota, where 3-5 foot drifts were common. Minnesota City gets the coveted Golden Snow Shovel Award. 16.6" of snow, not counting the drifts. Winona boasted 15.5", with 10" at Owatonna and Hastings. The suburbs of Madison, Wisconsin were buried under 15" of snow, with some unofficial reports of 20" near the Dells. Throw in 35 mph winds, white-out visibilities and subzero wind chills and you have a fair amount of weather drama (at least for early December). Yes, it feels like late January out there right now, when (historically) temperatures bottom out in Minnesota.

Photo courtesy of KARE-11.


24 Hour Precipitation. This is a Doppler-radar estimate of liquid precipitation that fell during the blizzard. The dark blue-shaded areas (.25 to .50" rain equivalent) generally picked up 5-10" of snow. The bright green areas (.5 to 1") saw 10-15" snowfall amounts, with 3-5 foot drifts. Yes, the first true snow of the Winter of '09-'10 was a doozy!


I'm baffled (nothing new, really) but my astonishment is reaching new levels of incredulity. Remember back in September, when life was good, and our weather was extraordinary (I seem to recall 3 stunning, sunny, lukewarm weeks in a row). September felt like August, which made October feel especially cruel & cool (3rd chilliest, and the 2-3" of snow rubbed salt in our weather-wounds). The locals were pissed! Then came November, remarkably quiet, dry, storm-free, as if our weather had been put on hold. It wound up being the third warmest November in Minnesota history. December brought back memories of October - once again the mercury went off a cliff. And now this latest episode of weather-behaving-badly. A local snowplow operator in Albert Lea interviewed on KARE-11 mentioned that he hasn't seen a real blizzard like this in nearly 21 years. His story is here.

Rhetorical question: what the heck is going on with our weather? It's always changing, variable, sometimes severe, but lately, it's been more unpredictable, off-the-chart bizarre. A symptom of climate change? I don't pretend to know. Monthly temperature departures (above/below) average have always been in the 2-5 F degree range, but lately they've been an order of magnitude more extreme. November was 10-15 degrees warmer than average, which - statistically - is VERY significant. Who knows what the rest of December will bring, but at the rate we're going, alternating warm/cold every other month I'd bank on a chillier than average December. NOAA continues to insist that January - March should be warmer than average, based on El Nino, but there are two wild cards. 1). Roughly 2 out of 3 El Nino winters wind up being milder than average, so there's a 1 in 3 chance this could wind up chillier. 2). The sun is still devoid of sunspots. There is a fairly strong correlation between sunspot-free periods and unusually cold weather, especially over North America. That's why I'm not quite as confident as NOAA that we'll escape with a milder winter. Odds favor this, yes, but I'm still not totally convinced.

The sun peeks through today, we'll be lucky to see 10 degrees (above zero!) by mid afternoon. At least the fierce, eye-watering winds will ease up, so will the blowing/drifting. It should be a better travel day (assuming you can get your vehicle started). Winds aloft blow more from the Pacific over the weekend, meaning 20s Saturday, even a shot at FREEZING on Sunday. Only in Minnesota can the locals get (a little) pumped about 32 lousy degrees, but in truth, compared to the burning sting out there right now - Sunday will be a huge step in the right direction. A burst of light snow late Monday accompanies the next cold front, more single digit highs likely by the middle of next week. Long-range GFS guidance is hinting at another shot at freezing the weekend before Christmas, a few inches of snow possible December 22-24 before another arctic slap arrives just in time for Christmas Eve. The mercury may hold in single digits Christmas Day with a wind chill guaranteed to chase all but the hardiest souls indoors. You may be wearing those neatly-hung stockings hanging on the mantle!

One thing seems fairly certain: whatever snow is in your yard right now will still be there Christmas Day. A little snow may melt/evaporate, but we may add to the pile late Monday of next week, and a few days before Christmas. That said, no more big, beefy storms are brewing anytime soon. A fluke or a trend, a freakish December blizzard or an omen of what's to come.

Place your bets.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Increasing clouds, still bitter. Winds: W 10-20. High: 8 (wind chill: -10 to -20 most of the day).

Tonight: Partly cloudy, unseasonably cold for mid December. Low: -2

Friday: Partly sunny, a little less wind. High: near 12

Saturday: Some AM sun, clouds increase with late-day flurries. High: 24

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, a few flurries - no significant accumulation. High: 32 (!)

Monday: Cloud increase, a coating of snow possible late with the next arctic front. High: 23

Tuesday: Gusty, turning bitter with some sunshine. High: 8

Wednesday: Icy sun, still numbing. High: 13 (after waking up to -7)

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT (courtesy of NOAA)

INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME
------  -----------------------  --  --------------   -------
13.30   ZUMBROTA                 MN  GOODHUE          0310 PM
13.10   EAU CLAIRE               WI  EAU CLAIRE       0235 PM
12.40   STANLEY                  WI  CHIPPEWA         0844 AM
12.00   BALDWIN                  WI  ST. CROIX        1040 AM
12.00   AUGUSTA                  WI  EAU CLAIRE       0700 AM
10.50   FARIBAULT                MN  RICE             0800 AM
10.00   3 SE ALBERT LEA          MN  FREEBORN         0800 AM
10.00   FAIRMONT                 MN  MARTIN           0800 AM
 9.90   W OWATONNA               MN  STEELE           0705 AM
 9.50   4 E RIVER FALLS          WI  PIERCE           0915 AM
 9.00   NORTHFIELD               MN  RICE             0906 AM
 9.00   TURTLE LAKE              WI  BARRON           0846 AM
 9.00   JIM FALLS                WI  CHIPPEWA         0800 AM
 9.00   DURAND                   WI  PEPIN            0800 AM
 9.00   2 SSE GENEVA             MN  FREEBORN         0736 AM
 9.00   KIESTER                  MN  FARIBAULT        0621 AM
 8.70   WOODBURY                 MN  WASHINGTON       0914 AM
 8.50   CLAYTON                  WI  POLK             0100 PM
 8.50   NEW MARKET               MN  SCOTT            0718 AM
 8.30   HASTINGS                 MN  DAKOTA           1214 PM
 8.20   MENOMONIE                WI  DUNN             0739 AM
 8.10   HAMMOND                  WI  ST. CROIX        0800 AM
 8.00   RIVER FALLS              WI  PIERCE           0320 AM
 8.00   WATERVILLE               MN  LE SUEUR         1200 PM
 8.00   MANKATO                  MN  BLUE EARTH       0811 AM
 8.00   LAKE ELMO                MN  WASHINGTON       0800 AM
 8.00   ELK MOUND                WI  DUNN             0800 AM
 8.00   WINNEBAGO                MN  FARIBAULT        0800 AM
 8.00   6 NW RICE LAKE           WI  BARRON           0650 AM
 7.50   CONNORSVILLE             WI  DUNN             0815 AM
 7.50   WASECA                   MN  WASECA           0800 AM
 7.50   ST PETER                 MN  NICOLLET         0800 AM
 7.40   MINNEAPOLIS ST PAUL APT  MN  HENNEPIN         0600 PM
 7.10   ROBERTS                  WI  ST. CROIX        0800 AM
 7.00   RIDGELAND                WI  DUNN             0233 PM
 7.00   WELCOME                  MN  MARTIN           1055 AM
 7.00   SHOREVIEW                MN  RAMSEY           0939 AM
 7.00   LONSDALE                 MN  RICE             0800 AM
 7.00   1 W CARVER               MN  CARVER           0700 AM
 7.00   RED WING                 MN  GOODHUE          0621 AM
 6.60   5 SW ST PAUL             MN  RAMSEY           0901 AM
 6.50   1 SSW JORDAN             MN  SCOTT            0550 AM
 6.00   VADNAIS HEIGHTS          MN  RAMSEY           0320 PM
 6.00   2 S BRUCE                WI  RUSK             0124 PM
 6.00   HOLCOMBE                 WI  CHIPPEWA         0800 AM
 6.00   BLOOMER                  WI  CHIPPEWA         0800 AM
 6.00   LAKELAND                 MN  WASHINGTON       0800 AM
 6.00   1 N CAMERON              WI  BARRON           0741 AM
 5.50   2 NE BUFFALO             MN  WRIGHT           0800 AM
 5.50   CUMBERLAND               WI  BARRON           0800 AM
 5.50   6 SSW LAKEVILLE          MN  SCOTT            0715 AM
 5.50   2 W PRIOR LAKE           MN  SCOTT            0700 AM
 5.40   2 N CHASKA               MN  CARVER           0806 AM
 5.20   NEW HOPE                 MN  HENNEPIN         0710 AM
 5.10   CHANHASSEN NWS           MN  CARVER           0600 PM
 5.10   1 ESE MILROY             MN  REDWOOD          0800 AM
 5.00   WEST ST PAUL             MN  DAKOTA           0831 AM
 5.00   HAMBURG                  MN  CARVER           0800 AM
 5.00   STILLWATER               MN  WASHINGTON       0736 AM
 5.00   ST PAUL                  MN  RAMSEY           0718 AM
 4.80   BLOOMINGTON              MN  HENNEPIN         0817 AM
 4.50   ELK RIVER                MN  SHERBURNE        0800 AM
 4.50   1 NNW COLD SPRING        MN  STEARNS          0800 AM
 4.20   REDWOOD FALLS            MN  REDWOOD          0800 AM
 4.20   ROCKFORD                 MN  HENNEPIN         0700 AM
 4.10   FRIDLEY                  MN  ANOKA            0929 AM
 4.10   WACONIA                  MN  CARVER           0714 AM
 4.00   8 SW GRANITE FALLS       MN  YELLOW MEDICINE  0831 AM
 4.00   BROWNTON                 MN  MCLEOD           0717 AM
 4.00   KIMBALL                  MN  STEARNS          0604 AM
 3.80   ONAMIA                   MN  MILLE LACS       0800 AM
 3.60   3 NNW ANDOVER            MN  ANOKA            0915 AM
 3.60   GAYLORD                  MN  SIBLEY           0800 AM
 3.20   8 S HILLMAN              MN  MORRISON         1100 AM
 3.20   5 NE FOREST LAKE         MN  CHISAGO          0800 AM
 3.00   6 S NORTH BRANCH         MN  CHISAGO          0138 PM
 3.00   MADISON                  MN  LAC QUI PARLE    0853 AM
 3.00   ST CLOUD SCSU            MN  STEARNS          0800 AM
 3.00   MORTON                   MN  RENVILLE         0736 AM
 3.00   LITCHFIELD               MN  MEEKER           0634 AM
 3.00   LITTLE FALLS             MN  MORRISON         0634 AM
 2.50   MILACA                   MN  MILLE LACS       0800 AM
 2.40   RICE                     MN  BENTON           0800 AM
 2.30   DONNELLY                 MN  STEVENS          1029 AM
 2.30   3 WNW PRINCETON          MN  MILLE LACS       0800 AM
 2.10   ST CLOUD AIRPORT         MN  STEARNS          0600 PM
 2.00   7 NNW OGILVIE            MN  KANABEC          1246 PM
 2.00   RUSH CITY                MN  CHISAGO          1135 AM
 2.00   CARLOS                   MN  DOUGLAS          0724 AM
 1.50   LONG PRAIRIE             MN  TODD             0800 AM

The Blizzard of '09

Weather Headlines

Blizzard conditions just south/east of the Twin Cities, where travel is not advised today.

"Plowable" snow tapers by late morning, no more accumulation after 10 or 11 am.

Dangerous wind chills later today through Friday, dipping to -30 at times.

20s may return by the middle of next week, but I don't see a return to freezing between now and Christmas. Yes, it should be a very, bright, white Christmas this year


Red, (very) white and blue. The models all agree: the heaviest snow bands will set up over far southeastern Minnesota and parts of western and central Wisconsin. This may be a little high, but I'm still thinking 4-6" for St. Cloud, 6-8" for the northern/western suburbs of Minneapolis, and 10-14" south/east of St. Paul.



On the nuisance-plowable-crippling snowfall scale (one I borrowed from my favorite Penn State meteorology professor) this will be plowable from St. Cloud to Minneapolis, but potentially crippling just south/east of St. Paul, and for a vast swath of southeastern Minnesota. Blizzard conditions are possible as close as Burnsville, Hastings and Northfield. Head south/east with extreme caution today!

Heaviest snow bands stay just to our east. The GFS weather model is predicting some 12-16" snowfall amounts from Iowa, far southeastern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin. Factor in sustained winds of 30-40 mph, temperatures falling through the teens into single digits, visibilities near zero at times, and you have extremely treacherous travel conditions. Only emergency travel should be attempted today, especially south/east of the Twin Cities. Winds begin to ease by tonight with dramatically better road conditions on Thursday statewide.


Are you enjoying your stay in Minnesota? Or should I say Minne-snowda? Welcome to little taste of the Yukon on the Mississippi, courtesy of one of the biggest December snowstorms in recent memory. We won't see 12" in one day, like we did on December 28, 1982. According to Pete Boulay at the State Climatology Office our last "mega" snowstorm was 16" back on March 8-9, 1999. We won't see nearly that much either, but the combination of snow, wind and cold will make for a very potent 1-2-3 meteorological punch, one that could turn any minor fender-benders into severe cases of frostbite, even hypothermia later today.

* Our heaviest snow so far this year? 6" fell on February 26, 2009.

The heaviest snows will swirl across town this morning, most of the accumulation winding down (from west to east) after 9 or 10 am. By that time many towns will have 6-8" of powder, some suburbs of St. Paul, especially from Stillwater to Hastings and Red Wing, could wake up to considerably more, maybe as much as 10-12". Winds will blow from the north at 25, with frequent gusts to 40 mph, in blizzard territory. The breakfast temperature will pretty much be our "high" for the day, that cruel north wind causing temperatures to tumble through single digits as snow tapers to flurries, and new snow drifts render plows and snow blowers temporarily obsolete.

No, we won't see quite this much snow.

A blizzard is defined as falling/blowing snow with visibilities under 1/4 mile for at least 3 consecutive hours, sustained winds over 35 mph. In the immediate metro area, with homes, businesses, more trees and landscaping, it may not be (technically) a blizzard. But get about 5-10 miles south of 494, cross the river and hit farmland south of Lakeville on your way to Northfield and you may run into blizzard conditions in a hurry. Travel, especially south of the metro area, is highly discouraged, especially through the early afternoon hours. MnDOT may get a better grip on the freeways and state roads by late afternoon or evening, but if you don't have to travel today stay put. Don't tempt fate. Again, it's not so much the amount of snow as it is the other factors, the wind, the cold, the wind chill (dipping to -20, even -30 by late afternoon). In these conditions frostbite on unprotected skin is possible in less than 5 minutes.

Frankly, the weather map (which looked like late September and early October for much of November) is now looking more like late January, when temperatures typically bottom out in Minnesota. Today's snow-blitz will be followed by subzero air - we'll wake up to -5 to -15 F Thursday morning, with a wind chill as cold as -30 to -40 F. Expect to wake up IN A HURRY! Numbing cold lingers through the weekend (although I don't see any more dramatic storms anytime soon). A more westerly component to our winds aloft should push 20-degree air back into Minnesota by next Tuesday or Wednesday (hooray!) Yes, after a stretch like this Minnesotans are actually relieved to see 20s, freezing feels like a gift, a bargain from on high.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Winter Storm Warning (Blizzard Warning far southern suburbs). Moderate to heavy snow, tapering to flurries by afternoon. Windy with blowing/drifting and treacherous travel. High: 12 (falling through the single digits). Wind chill: -10 this morning, falling to -30 by evening.

Total accumulation: 6-8" western/northern suburbs of Minneapolis, 7-9" downtowns, as much as 10-12" south/east of St. Paul by midday. Some 10-16" amounts are likely over far southeastern MN and much of western/central Wisconsin.

Tonight: Partial clearing, bitterly cold, winds ease up a bit. Low: -9

Thursday: Bitter sunlight, feels more like late January! High: 10

Friday: Dim sun, still numbing. High: 13

Saturday: Snow showers/flurries, light accumulation possible. High: 16

Sunday: Windy and colder with bright sun. High: 9

Monday: More flurries, a cold breeze. High: 13

Tuesday: Patchy clouds, temperatures still below average. High: 18

Wednesday: A little light snow/flurries. High: 23

Blizzard Potential

The rumors are true: the first snowstorm of the winter season is going to be plowable, bordering on crippling south and east of the Twin Cities. The more I look at the maps the more I believe we may be very close to blizzard criteria, even here in the immediate Twin Cities. Here are a few storm "headlines":

* Get your errands done as soon as possible - conditions will gradually deteriorate as the day goes on with roads becoming increasingly icy and snow-covered.

* I expect about 1-2" by late afternoon, but the snow will pick up in intensity tonight. Right now it looks like we'll wake up to 5-6" of snow by Wednesday morning around the breakfast hour.

* Another 2-3" of snow is possible tomorrow as winds increase, causing considerable blowing and drifting of snow.

* I believe the worst driving conditions will come Wednesday morning/midday, with conditions only slowly improving (on freeways) late Wednesday and Wednesday night as winds start to ease up a bit. But getting to work/school Wednesday morning is going to be your worst vehicular nightmare. Leave early. Better yet: take the day off. Don't even chance it.

* Blizzard warnings are posted just south/east of the Twin Cities for Wednesday, but I'm concerned that the immediate metro may experience blizzard or near-blizzard conditions much of the day. A blizzard is defined as visibility under 1/4 mile in falling or blowing snow, wind speeds above 35 mph or so, capable of complete white-out conditions. That's what we're probably going to be faced with on Wednesday.

* Snow totals of 8-10" are now likely, with some 12"+ amounts south/east, from Lakeville to Hastings and Cottage Grove.

* Travel won't really begin to improve until Thursday. Unless it's an emergency, I would seriously consider delaying travel tomorrow. I have a hunch most schools (and many businesses) will be closed for the day.

* The snow will be followed by bitter cold, subzero lows likely Wednesday and Thursday night. getting stuck in a drift could be more than just an inconvenience - it could truly be life-threatening within 24-36 hours. Wind chills may dip into the -20 to -35 range by Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Here is the latest GFS snowfall map, showing the projected path of heaviest snow. Even if the models are off by a factor of 2, we'll still pick up 5-6" of snow from this system, followed by bitterly cold, subzero air.

Bracing for the Big One

The rumors are true: the first snowstorm of the winter season is going to be plowable, bordering on crippling south and east of the Twin Cities. Here are a few storm "headlines":

* Get your errands done as soon as possible - conditions will gradually deteriorate as the day goes on with roads becoming increasingly icy and snow-covered.

* I expect about 1-2" by late afternoon, but the snow will pick up in intensity tonight. Right now it looks like we'll wake up to 5-6" of snow by Wednesday morning around the breakfast hour.

* Another 2-3" of snow is possible tomorrow as winds increase, causing considerable blowing and drifting of snow.

* Blizzard warnings are posted just south/east of the Twin Cities for Wednesday, but I'm concerned that the immediate metro may experience blizzard or near-blizzard conditions much of the day. A blizzard is defined as visibility under 1/4 mile in falling or blowing snow, wind speeds above 35 mph or so, capable of complete white-out conditions. That's what we're probably going to be faced with on Wednesday.

* Snow totals of 8-10" are very possible, with some 12"+ amounts south/east, from Lakeville to Hastings and Cottage Grove.

* Travel won't really begin to improve until Thursday. Unless it's an emergency, I would seriously consider delaying travel tomorrow. I have a hunch most schools (and many businesses) will be closed for the day.

* The snow will be followed by bitter cold, subzero lows likely Wednesday and Thursday night. getting stuck in a drift could be more than just an inconvenience - it could truly be life-threatening within 24-36 hours. Wind chills may dip into the -20 to -35 range by Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Here is the latest GFS snowfall map, showing the projected path of heaviest snow. Even if the models are off by a factor of 2, we'll still pick up 5-6" of snow from this system, followed by bitterly cold, subzero air