Welcome to "Octember"!

The calendar on the wall is whispering November, but the atmosphere is SHOUTING October. Temperatures for the first 16 days of November are running 9 to 9.5 degrees warmer than average, making this the warmest November since modern-day NWS records were first started in 1891. The third coolest October is being followed by a record-smashing (mild) November - makes perfect sense to me. El Nino kicking in? Not sure if we can attribute this warm spell to warm water collecting off the coast of South America - it's certainly possible. The pattern is what meteorologists refer to as "modified Pacific", a regime more typical for late September than the third week of November. Keep in mind we should have picked up 4-5" of snow so far this month. Lakes and ponds should be freezing up - wind chills should be dipping into the teens. So much for "should".

A Free Show. Yes, we're talking my favorite kind of shower, a celestial sight rarely seen east of the Mississippi, where hills, haze, high rise buildings and light pollution usually get in the way. In case you weren't awake (and outside, away from light pollution) this morning at 3 am, the "Leonid Meteor Shower" is underway - planet Earth hurtling through a trail of cosmic dust leftover from comet Tempel Tuttle. As many as 20-30 lucky shooting stars (meteors) were visible last night - under ideal conditions. High clouds may dim the show a bit tonight, but it's still worth a look. Historically it's one of the more spectacular meteor showers of the entire year.



What happened to "normal"? Based on data from the National Weather Service and the MN State Climatology Office on any given year there is a 17% chance of at least 1" of snow on the ground on November 17, a 2% risk of 5" of snowcover. The probability of at least 1" of snow rises to 52% by Thanksgiving Day, a better than 50/50 chance of a "white Thanksgiving." Not this year, not here - not going to happen.

Snow on the ground: a rare commodity. You have to look long and hard to find any snow on the ground right now, a slushy coating over the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, otherwise bare ground for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes - highly unusual for the 17th day of November.

If you were confined to your cubicle or office yesterday you'll get another chance to soak up some brilliant sunshine again today with highs near 50, a good 10-15 degrees warmer than average. Factor in a light breeze and you'll swear it's October 17! I know, I keep rubbing my eyes, wondering about this wondrous atmospheric time warm we've fallen into. Whatever the trigger, milder-than-normal weather will linger into at least the first half of next week. I still don't see any major storms (of any flavor) between now and Thanksgiving indigestion and family small-talk. It will cool down by the end of next week, the atmosphere aloft cold enough aloft for a little snow by the end of next week. But the pattern won't favor major storms over the nation's midsection for at least the next 2 weeks - big storms are lashing the Pacific Northwest - models print out a soaking (rain) storm for New England around Thanksgiving Day, but we may just dodge a bullet here in Minnesota.

Where's the Snow? This is the latest snowfall outlook through midnight on Friday. The only predicted snow is a small region in northeastern Kansas; the same storm may spread drizzle and very light rain into town Wednesday night and Thursday.

An "occluded" storm over Missouri (responsible for some 6-8" snowfall amounts over northeastern Kansas) will weaken as it pinwheels north, pushing clouds into the state on Wednesday, the atmosphere may saturate enough for a little drizzle or very light rain from Wednesday night into Thursday. We dry out a bit Friday before clouds thicken up on Saturday, another period of drizzle or light rain expected from late Saturday into Sunday. We dry out (and sunny up!) early next week, temperatures falling off slightly, back to "average" in time for heading over the river and through the woods to Grandma's house for Thanksgiving. Right now it looks like highs in the 30s (to near 40 over southern Minnesota) for turkey-time and crazed, foaming-at-the-mouth shopping sprees next Friday, the mythical, to be avoided-at-all-cost "Black Friday." Where's a good blizzard when you need one?

Preliminary Thanksgiving Outlook. The long-range GFS model prints out a major storm for New England on Thanksgiving Day, the atmosphere probably warm enough for mostly rain for cities from New York to Boston and Albany. The storm may impact flights into and out of major cities in the northeast the end of next week - stay tuned for more details.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Bright sun, still spectacular - more like mid October. Winds: E 5-10. High: near 50

Tonight: Partly cloudy, slight chance of spying a shooting star or two. Low: 27

Wednesday: Clouds increase and thicken - a little light rain or drizzle possible late. High: 45

Thursday: A period of light rain or drizzle. High: 46

Friday: Drying out, peeks of sun. High: 47

Saturday: A mix of clouds and sun, unseasonably mild. High: 51

Sunday: Gray and damp with light rain or drizzle. High: 47

Monday: Gradual clearing, breezy and cooler. High: 43

The Perils of Weather Modification

Weather Headlines

Weather modification backfires in China?

History of weather-tinkering in the USA

October weather to hang on most of this week (today & tomorrow the 2 nicest days in sight).

Best chance of light rain: Thursday, again Saturday

Turning colder by Thanksgiving: cold enough for a little wet snow NEXT Thursday & Friday?

A recent spate of record blizzards across northern China has created an uproar. Nearly 50 people have been killed during the heaviest snows in five decades across northern China's drought-stricken northern regions. Damage is estimated at more than $650 million; highways have been clogged, thousands stranded at area airports, with numerous reports of collapsed roofs north of Beijing. What makes the storm so controversial? Days before the Beijing Weather Modification Office conducted widespread cloud-seeding operations, boasting that "they had produced 16 million metric tons of additional snow." In a Wall Street Journal article a weather official, Zhang Qiang, was quoted as saying, "We won't miss any opportunity for artificial precipitation since Beijing is suffering from the lingering drought." Ouch. The timing is curious, but the truth of the matter: there is NO way seeding a few clouds could have created the record snowfalls (1-3 feet) measured over normally-arid northern China. It was an unfortunately-timed coincidence, but it points out the moral hazard of tinkering with Mother Nature.

Record-breaking snowstorms in the midst of a lingering drought. North China has been hit hard by heavy snow in the last week, paralyzing travel by air and land, collapsing buildings, leaving scores of people dead. The massive blizzard coincided with aggressive cloud-seeding conducted by the Chinese government in an attempt to end a decade-long drought.

During the 1970s, during a severe drought, efforts were made to seed clouds over North Dakota to try and squeeze a little rain out of a dry, dusty, summer sky. What happened next was also (probably) another example of crazy-coincidence: it POURED over the Red River Valley, and subsequent floods got farmers so angry that they petitioned to stop weather modification immediately. You could argue the cloud-seeding worked too well! Since then there has been no weather modification (to my knowledge) anywhere east of the Rockies. Many western states routinely operate weather modification exercises, attempting to nudge the weather in a certain direction. Cloud-seeding over the Sierra Nevada mountains of California have been shown to spike snowfall by 3-5%, but only when conditions aloft are ripe. Salt Lake City's airport has dropped dry ice into ice fogs, hoping to dissipate ice crystals and clear runways, with some level of success. But the energy necessary to create widespread, heavy rain (or snow) is something that just isn't in the realm of reality anytime soon.


In recent years the one area of weather modification that has gotten the most attention revolves around hurricanes. Although it's probably impossible to nudge a hurricane in any specific direction - the notion of weakening a hurricane is very possible, at least in theory. Since hurricanes thrive on warm ocean water, if you could somehow cool water temperatures in the path of a hurricane, you MIGHT be able to knock down wind speeds (and subsequent storm surges and damage). Scientists have devised amazing technologies for bringing cool water deep in the ocean to the surface; even Microsoft's Bill Gates got in on the action by filing a patent for a process that might weaken hurricanes by cooling the water in their path.

Project Stormfury. In the 1960s attempts were made to weaken a handful of hurricanes approaching the U.S. coast. The theory: by seeding the outer eyewall it might be possible to strengthen the thunderstorms farther away from the center of the storm, widening the eye, and subsequently weakening the strongest winds in the process. Although some of the initial results were promising, nearby nations complained that the USA was "stealing their rain", so the experiments were halted.

But tinkering with the weather is fraught with peril, technological and political. During the 1960s, during Project Stormfury", researchers attempted to seed the inner eyewall of Hurricane Debby, off the coast of Florida, with silver iodide, hoping to weaken the raging donut of towering thunderheads. Sure enough wind speeds dropped by 30% immediately after the Hurricane Hunter aircraft seeded the core of the storm. But after getting wind of the experiment, countries like Cuba and Mexico complained to the United Nations that America was "robbing them of their life-giving storms." Bowing to international political pressure the hurricane researchers halted their flights into hurricanes, and there hasn't been any attempted modification since. Sometimes I'm asked, "Paul, couldn't you just detonate a nuclear weapon in the eye of a hurricane?" Hmm. Hurricanes get their strength from warm ocean water. Let's heat the water to a million degrees F. in a few milliseconds! Truth: such tinkering could make a hurricane even more fearsome, not to mention what would happen to radioactive fallout. Similar suggestions have been made for tornadoes. "Just launch rockets into the funnels to disrupt the violent vortexes!" Great idea, Einstein. But what happens if your artillery shell MISSES and you hit a nearby neighborhood.

Rest assured - weather modification (on a large and devastating scale) is still the stuff of science fiction, not reality. And no, I haven't seen any credible evidence that the Russians (or anyone else) are using low-grade radio frequency waves or any other esoteric methods to disrupt the weather patterns over North America. Again, the energy required to really have a widespread impact on a storm 1,500 miles wide boggles the mind, and is outside the realm of reality. At least in our lifetime.

I hope you were able to sneak outside yesterday and play in the sun. Does rake leaving qualify as "playing"? I took my '85 convertible out for a spin. I can't remember the last time I was able to do this in mid November. No complaints here. I consider this payback for an especially rotten October. The mercury topped out at 49, well above our average high of 40 for Nov. 15. A year ago the high was 37, by comparison. No snow (yet) in November - we should have seen about 3-4" by now. A fairly quiet week is on tap, today and Tuesday probably the nicest days in sight with highs near 50 over parts of central and southern Minnesota. A Colorado storm will strengthen over Tulsa, Oklahoma tomorrow, then push almost due north, spreading a few light showers into town by Wednesday night and Thursday, but rainfall amounts don't look impressive. Looking farther ahead a little rain or drizzle may fall Saturday, followed by sunnier, drier weather on Sunday as temperatures cool a few degrees. Nothing remotely resembling a "cold front" is in sight this week, temperatures consistently 5-15 degrees above average for this time of year. The Weather Honeymoon continues.

Now, about Thanksgiving. Although I don't see any monstrous, flight-mangling, highway-battering snow/ice/rain storms between now and Thanksgiving, the long LONG range computer models are strongly hinting at a cool-down right around Thanksgiving, even suggesting a slushy inch or so of snow on Thanksgiving and "Black Friday", the shopping (mess) the day after we all consume far too much turkey and stuffing. But winds are forecast to be blowing from the north/northwest, so I can't get too excited (or concerned) just yet. Our flow aloft will be "modified Pacific" through much of next week, so expect our run of October-ish weather to hang on for the better part of the next 10 days. I can live with that....

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Mostly sunny & beautiful. Winds: light, under 5 mph. High: 51

Tonight: Clear and frosty. Low: 26

Tuesday: Bright sun, still feels more like mid October. High: 50

Wednesday: Sunny start, then increasing clouds. High: 46

Thursday: Overcast, a little light rain possible. High: 44

Friday: Mostly cloudy, cool and damp. High: 43

Saturday: Still gray, a little light rain or drizzle possible. High: 46

Sunday: Partial clearing, breezy and cool. High: 43

Our winter intermission continues

The Great Ice Storm of '96. It was only 13 years ago that a major ice storm swept across Minnesota, downing countless trees and powerlines, making travel all but impossible. It turns out it was an omen of a very rough winter to come, with frequent ice storms and a string of blizzards, hitting central and western Minnesota very hard. According to the National Weather Service the ice storm moved through much of central and southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin on November 14, 1996. Schools closed or began late over much of southern Minnesota the morning of the 15th due to a 1/2 inch thick layer of ice that covered much of the area. Flights were canceled at Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport due to ice forming on airplanes and runways, however mainly sleet was reported in the Twin Cities.


No severe icing, heavy snow or arctic blasts are brewing, in fact relatively mild weather will probably hang on through Thanksgiving. Temperatures this week run 5-10 degrees above average, not as mild as last week, but daytime highs will be more reminiscent oflate October than mid November. Soak up some rare November sunlight!

The Snow was THIS high! We survived Friday, the 13th. Yes, we're getting off to a damp, chilling start to our Saturday, but it could be worse - much worse. 69 years ago today we were still digging out from the Great Armistice Day Blizzard of 1940. The storm put down a 1,000 mile wide carpet of heavy snow from Kansas to Minnesota and Michigan. Winds gusted close to hurricane force, heavy, windswept rain changing to ice, then snow, with whiteout conditions for over 24 hours. The mercury started out mild on November 11, reaching into the 60s across southeastern Minnesota. Thousands of duck hunters left the house, hearing a forecast that called for "falling temperatures, showers ending as flurries." It turned out to be lot's and lot's of flurries, 16" piled up in the Twin Cities, but 27" suffocated Collegeville, with 5-10 foot drifts commonplace. The storm knocked out power (and phone lines) and area highways turned into an auto-mangled mess. Travel was impossible, the mercury dropping more than 50 degrees in less than 24 hours across most of Minnesota. Duck hunters left the house in shirtsleeves and soon found themselves shivering uncontrollably, trying to find shelter against the horizontal snow and subzero wind chills. Many found themselves trapped on islands in the Mississippi, the waves too large to reach shore. A total of 49 Minnesotans lost their lives, half of them hunters. In the town of Watkins, MN 2 people died when trains collided, unable to see each other in the blinding snow. It took weeks for Minnesota to dig out, the storm indelibly etched in the minds of survivors. According to the MN State Climatology Office the Armistice Day Blizzard ranked #2 on the Top 5 Weather Events of the 20th Century - truly a storm for the ages.



Excelsior Boulevard in St. Louis Park, aftermath of the Armistice Day Blizzard. One big problem with the storm: there was no place to push the snow. Ever since this specific blizzard MnDOT has elevated Minnesota's major roads, to give the snow someplace to go! Next time you're zipping down a state highway (or freeway) you'll notice that the road elevation is significantly higher than the surrounding ditches. It may seem like common sense (today) but it took an epic blizzard to change the way we design and build our highways.

Surface Map from November 11, 1940. An unusually intense area of low pressure tracked across Iowa into Wisconsin. Ahead of the storm, mild southeasterly winds with temperatures (temporarily) pushing into the 60s - on the backside of the storm a tight pressure gradient (strong contrast in barometric pressure) whipped up wind gusts as high as 80 mph, producing blizzard and whiteout conditions statewide, whipping the flakes into 5-10 foot drifts.

An eastbound cool front will squeeze a little more rain from a slate-gray sky this morning, but a drying west/northwest wind should punch a few holes in a stale slab of stratocumulus clouds by afternoon, skies brightening (a little) as the day goes on. As high pressure builds in from the west I expect more sun on Sunday, highs well up into the 40s to near 50 across southern Minnesota. I still don't see any arctic fronts, no accumulating snow, no ice or traumatizing wind chill anytime soon (at least through the end of next week). Highs will reach the 40s each day, at least 5-10 degrees above average for mid November. Models are still hinting at a colder surge of air arriving immediately after Thanksgiving, but I don't see any monster-storms between now and Turkey Day. Rain? That's another story. The best chance of puddles will come Thursday and Friday of next week (the atmosphere warm enough statewide for plain old rain). We may see a brief respite from precipitation next Saturday (Nov. 21) but the GFS model is suggesting a rain/snow mix on Sunday, the 22nd, followed by significantly colder air the week of Thanksgiving. That said, temperatures won't be nanook - no arctic air (yet), but highs may be stuck in the 30s to near 40 the week of Thanksgiving, much closer to average. Yes, the honeymoon won't last forever, but I'm enjoying this respite from the wicked winds of winter....hope you are too.

A Week's Worth of Rain. Check out the impressive rainfall amounts leftover from "Ida" stretching from Alabama into the Carolinas and Virginia - 4-8" amounts commonplace. After a soggy October November is starting out mild and unusually dry. As of Friday morning only .16" of rain had fallen on St. Cloud since November 1, about .56" less than average to date.

The United (Record-Breaking) States of America. Since January 1, 2000 NOAA reports 142, 420 record highs across the nation. During this same, nearly 10-year period, a total of 291, 237 record highs were reported, many west of the Mississippi. Now this is a head-scratcher. Climate change deniers are emphatic that temperatures have "leveled off" during the last decade after peaking in 1998 (an especially warm El Nino year that has the distinction of being the warmest year ever recorded). But if that's the case what explains the apparent spike in record highs? If temperatures weren't still creeping upward, if there was truly no climate change involved, you'd expect the number of record highs to be comparable to the number of record lows - there would be a state of equilibrium, right? Am I missing something here. These observations were taken at 1,800 daily reporting weather stations around the USA and the data seems pretty sound to me. For more check out details at sciencedaily.com by clicking here.

Speaking of Records. Check out a DAY'S worth of record from coast to coast. Record rainfall for North Carolina and Virginia, and dozens and dozens of records for the warmest daily low temperatures on record from Arizona to Minnesota. To get specifics for each record on a (very cool) interactive map click here.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Plenty of sun, cool and pleasant. High: near 50

Tonight: Clear and chilly. Low: 27

Monday: Lot's of sun, milder than average. High: 51

Tuesday: Still dry, unusually sunny for November. High: 50

Wednesday: Clouds slowly increase, light rain possible late. High: 48

Thursday: Periods of light rain likely. High: 45

Friday: Mostly cloudy, cool & damp, showery rains linger. High: 44

Saturday (Nov. 21). Some sun, probably the drier, nicer day of the weekend. High: 46

Remembering the Ultimate November Blizzard

The Snow was THIS high! We survived Friday, the 13th. Yes, we're getting off to a damp, chilling start to our Saturday, but it could be worse - much worse. 69 years ago today we were still digging out from the Great Armistice Day Blizzard of 1940. The storm put down a 1,000 mile wide carpet of heavy snow from Kansas to Minnesota and Michigan. Winds gusted close to hurricane force, heavy, windswept rain changing to ice, then snow, with whiteout conditions for over 24 hours. The mercury started out mild on November 11, reaching into the 60s across southeastern Minnesota. Thousands of duck hunters left the house, hearing a forecast that called for "falling temperatures, showers ending as flurries." It turned out to be lot's and lot's of flurries, 16" piled up in the Twin Cities, but 27" suffocated Collegeville, with 5-10 foot drifts commonplace. The storm knocked out power (and phone lines) and area highways turned into an auto-mangled mess. Travel was impossible, the mercury dropping more than 50 degrees in less than 24 hours across most of Minnesota. Duck hunters left the house in shirtsleeves and soon found themselves shivering uncontrollably, trying to find shelter against the horizontal snow and subzero wind chills. Many found themselves trapped on islands in the Mississippi, the waves too large to reach shore. A total of 49 Minnesotans lost their lives, half of them hunters. In the town of Watkins, MN 2 people died when trains collided, unable to see each other in the blinding snow. It took weeks for Minnesota to dig out, the storm indelibly etched in the minds of survivors. According to the MN State Climatology Office the Armistice Day Blizzard ranked #2 on the Top 5 Weather Events of the 20th Century - truly a storm for the ages.



Excelsior Boulevard in St. Louis Park, aftermath of the Armistice Day Blizzard. One big problem with the storm: there was no place to push the snow. Ever since this specific blizzard MnDOT has elevated Minnesota's major roads, to give the snow someplace to go! Next time you're zipping down a state highway (or freeway) you'll notice that the road elevation is significantly higher than the surrounding ditches. It may seem like common sense (today) but it took an epic blizzard to change the way we design and build our highways.

Surface Map from November 11, 1940. An unusually intense area of low pressure tracked across Iowa into Wisconsin. Ahead of the storm, mild southeasterly winds with temperatures (temporarily) pushing into the 60s - on the backside of the storm a tight pressure gradient (strong contrast in barometric pressure) whipped up wind gusts as high as 80 mph, producing blizzard and whiteout conditions statewide, whipping the flakes into 5-10 foot drifts.

An eastbound cool front will squeeze a little more rain from a slate-gray sky this morning, but a drying west/northwest wind should punch a few holes in a stale slab of stratocumulus clouds by afternoon, skies brightening (a little) as the day goes on. As high pressure builds in from the west I expect more sun on Sunday, highs well up into the 40s to near 50 across southern Minnesota. I still don't see any arctic fronts, no accumulating snow, no ice or traumatizing wind chill anytime soon (at least through the end of next week). Highs will reach the 40s each day, at least 5-10 degrees above average for mid November. Models are still hinting at a colder surge of air arriving immediately after Thanksgiving, but I don't see any monster-storms between now and Turkey Day. Rain? That's another story. The best chance of puddles will come Thursday and Friday of next week (the atmosphere warm enough statewide for plain old rain). We may see a brief respite from precipitation next Saturday (Nov. 21) but the GFS model is suggesting a rain/snow mix on Sunday, the 22nd, followed by significantly colder air the week of Thanksgiving. That said, temperatures won't be nanook - no arctic air (yet), but highs may be stuck in the 30s to near 40 the week of Thanksgiving, much closer to average. Yes, the honeymoon won't last forever, but I'm enjoying this respite from the wicked winds of winter....hope you are too.

A Week's Worth of Rain. Check out the impressive rainfall amounts leftover from "Ida" stretching from Alabama into the Carolinas and Virginia - 4-8" amounts commonplace. After a soggy October November is starting out mild and unusually dry. As of Friday morning only .16" of rain had fallen on St. Cloud since November 1, about .56" less than average to date.

The United (Record-Breaking) States of America. Since January 1, 2000 NOAA reports 142, 420 record highs across the nation. During this same, nearly 10-year period, a total of 291, 237 record highs were reported, many west of the Mississippi. Now this is a head-scratcher. Climate change deniers are emphatic that temperatures have "leveled off" during the last decade after peaking in 1998 (an especially warm El Nino year that has the distinction of being the warmest year ever recorded). But if that's the case what explains the apparent spike in record highs? If temperatures weren't still creeping upward, if there was truly no climate change involved, you'd expect the number of record highs to be comparable to the number of record lows - there would be a state of equilibrium, right? Am I missing something here. These observations were taken at 1,800 daily reporting weather stations around the USA and the data seems pretty sound to me. For more check out details at sciencedaily.com by clicking here.

Speaking of Records. Check out a DAY'S worth of record from coast to coast. Record rainfall for North Carolina and Virginia, and dozens and dozens of records for the warmest daily low temperatures on record from Arizona to Minnesota. To get specifics for each record on a (very cool) interactive map click here.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Damp start with a little drizzle, few sprinkles. More clouds than sun this afternoon. Winds: W/NW 10-15. High: 45

Tonight: Partly cloudy and chilly. Low: 30

Sunday: Plenty of sun, cool and pleasant. High: near 50

Monday: Lot's of sun, milder than average. High: 51

Tuesday: Still dry, unusually sunny for November. High: 50

Wednesday: Clouds slowly increase, light rain possible late. High: 48

Thursday: Periods of light rain likely. High: 45

Friday: Mostly cloudy, cool & damp, showery rains linger. High: 44

Saturday (Nov. 21). Some sun, probably the drier, nicer day of the weekend. High: 46

Puddles Predicted for Evening Football Games

How's this for odd & random: the first 11 days of November are turning out to be a couple degrees warmer than ALL of October! That doesn't happen very often. Long-range computer guidance keeps us warmer than average through the end of next week. Don't expect another round of Indian Summer with highs near 60, but daytime highs should be well up in the 40s, a good 5-10 degrees above average. The GFS model goes out 15 days, and guidance is hinting at a colder front arriving right around Thanksgiving, possibly a period of rain leading up to Turkey-Time, a colder northwest wind keeping temperatures in the 30s for Thanksgiving Day, no more than a coating or dusting of snow. Right now I do NOT see any major storms capable of fouling up air or land travel between now and Thanksgiving. Of course that could change, but after a little rain today, skies clear out over the weekend. A storm winds up over the mid-Mississippi River Valley next week, possibly pushing a little light rain into Minnesota by late Wednesday and Thursday.

Weather Map for noon today. A week eastbound cool front is forecast to squeeze out a few hours of rain across Minnesota, possibly mixing with or changing over to a period of wet snow Friday night from the Red River Valley across far northern Minnesota.

Predicted Snowfall by next Tuesday. Models are predicting a couple inches of snow for far northern Minnesota tonight and early Saturday, but after the recent bout of milder-than-normal weather much of the snow may melt on contact with the (relatively) mild ground.

Snow? The atmosphere will be warm enough for mostly rain tomorrow, but the models are hinting at a little wet snow across far northern Minnesota late tomorrow and Friday night, I wouldn't be surprised to see a quick inch or two of slush. Whatever falls will be mostly-gone by Saturday afternoon. There's still precious little snow east of the Rockies, unusual but not unprecedented for mid November. The pattern won't be ripe for accumulating snow across the northern tier states of the USA until immediately after Thanksgiving, when lake-effect may finally kick in near Chicago, South Bend, Cleveland and Buffalo. By then we will be long overdue.

No Arctic Fronts Anytime Soon. Here's the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) outlook for next week - it's hard to miss the bulls-eye of warmth predicted right over Minnesota. Odds favor milder-than-normal weather through at least the end of next week. After that all bets are off.

GFS Model Outlook for 6 am next Thursday. A moderate-strength area of low pressure is forecast to spin up over the Mississippi Valley, tracking north across the Plains, pushing a shield of light rain into Minnesota late Wednesday into Thursday. The lowest mile of the atmosphere may be just cold enough for a light rain-snow mix, temperatures above freezing should insure wet roads - probably not cold enough for any snow to actually stick.

Thanksgiving Preview. Here is the raw GFS data for Thanksgiving week, suggesting a period of rain Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by a colder front Thanksgiving Day (maybe a dusting/coating of snow). By "Black Friday" daytime highs may be stuck in the 30s - 20s up north. From left to right the day/time is followed by temperature, dew point, wind information (surface and 3,500 feet aloft) followed by expected rainfall. Temperatures aloft cool down rapidly after Thanksgiving - it will be COLD enough for snow, but right now it looks like moisture will be limited in the days immediately after Thanksgiving. No cause for panic....yet.


Say What? This is a random photo that has absolutely nothing to do with today's weather. There are no dust devils (or giraffes) in today's outlook, you'll be happy to hear.

Today's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Overcast, breezy and damp with periods of rain. Winds: SW/W 5-15. High: 52

Tonight: Light rain tapers off late (mixed with snow far northern MN, maybe 1-2"). Low: 34

Saturday: Partly sunny & drier with a cool breeze. High: 47

Sunday: Plenty of sun, milder than average (by about 10 degrees). High: 49

Monday: Mix of clouds and sun, still quiet and dry. High: 48

Tuesday: Sunny start, clouds increase later. High: 47

Wednesday: Cloudy, a little light rain possible late in the day. High: 46

Thursday: Periods of rain, cool & "raw". High: 45

Winter Hazard Awareness Week

I know - I know. It's hard to get excited about snow, ice, blizzards and dangerous wind chill with temperatures poking well into the 50s to near 60 and talk of Indian Summer in the air. The first 11 days of November are running a good 6-8 degrees above average from St. Cloud to the Twin Cities, as much as 10-15 degrees above average across northern Minnesota, where there is NO snow to be found on the ground. That's a little unusual - by the second week of November there is (usually) a couple inches of snow on the ground over the Minnesota Arrowhead, the BWCA and the International Falls area. A month ago, when it was snowing and everyone was pretty miserable (myself included) I went out on a creaky limb and predicted "more 60s" before winter sets in for good. A number of people laughed (mainly friends and family members) but I stuck to my guns. Why? The atmosphere always strives toward equilibrium. Unusually cold weather is USUALLY followed by a spell of abnormally mild weather. Usually, but not always. The fact that the cold and snow came so early, about 2-4 weeks earlier than normal, was a tip-off that Indian Summer would pop back up again in November. The past 4 days have been a God-send, a kick in the pants, and many people who were moping (and whining) just a few weeks ago have come out of their dark, damp funks and made the most of this unusual spell of late-season warmth. Evidence of El Nino? Probably not. Even though a moderate to strong El Nino is warming Pacific Ocean water, we probably won't see the full effects of this phenomenon until January and February, which should....SHOULD...trend milder than average from Seattle to the Twin Cities. I'm not fond of long-range (seasonal) forecasts. So much can go wrong. El Nino is only one signal, there may be other factors that are much more difficult to factor into the long-range models, and that's why I start to (visibly) sweat when the subject turns to "hey Paul, what's the winter going to be like?" Hmmm. "Colder with some snow. Back to you Bubba." If only it was that easy...

Records Galore! Check out a week's worth of weather records across the USA. All those red dots are cities that recorded a record high temperature in the last 7 days, the green dots show record rainfall amounts for a 24 hour period. The most record highs are clustered from New England into the Great Lakes and across the Rockies, where a blizzard struck just 2 weeks ago. To see specific records on a (great) interactive map, click here for more.



The Winter of '08-09. The National Weather Service created a great map showing snowfall statewide. More than 80" socked the Moorhead/Detroit Lakes area, as well as much of the Minnesota Arrowhead, but only 40-50" fell from St. Cloud into most of the Twin Cities, about 5-10" less than average. What will the upcoming winter bring? Odds (weighted due to El Nino) favor LESS snow than average, but that's far from a certainty. This is Winter Hazard Awareness Week here in Minnesota. For more facts & figures from NOAA click here for some solid information that may come in very handy in a few weeks.

Snowfall during an "Average Winter". Normal snowfall for St. Cloud and the Twin Cities is 50-55", with over 80" for the Arrowhead. Why do snowfall amounts tend to increase the farther east you travel across Minnesota? One factor is moisture swept off Lake Superior ("lake effect snows") but moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is more likely to impact the eastern half of Minnesota than the westernmost counties of the state, which tend to be drier, on average. Yes, during a typical winter MSP and STC SHOULD see more snow than Fargo and the Crookston, Roseau area. Strange but true...

Predicted Wave Heights for Thursday. Unless I'm hallucinating (possible) I'm seeing some 14-18' predictions from coastal Virginia north to New Jersey, the result of the soggy remains of "Ida" interacting with a strong bubble of high pressure draped over eastern Canada. The resulting pressure contrast is whipping up sustained east/northeast winds of 30-50 mph along the east coast, capable of very heavy surf and coastal beach erosion. If you're flying into an eastern city through Saturday expect rain/wind-related delays.

We salvaged a nicer-than-expected Wednesday (my bad - I thought the clouds would thicken up faster). Interestingly enough, I didn't hear a peep from anyone. No "Paul, I thought you said it would cloud up today?" I've noticed that when the weather turns out NICER than predicted, most people don't mind. There may be a little good-natured ribbing, but no crimes have been committed. No worries. But when the forecast turns out WORSE than expected, watch out, especially if it's on a weekend, a holiday, or the Deer Hunting or Fishing Opener. Minnesotans have long memories....and they're not shy about reminding you that you screwed up, big-time!

O.K. Try again. An approaching cool front will increase our cloudcover today, keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but still 10-15 degrees above average. Yes, we're getting spoiled - this recent spell of shirtsleeve/sweatshirt weather is more typical of early October than early November. Think about it: September felt more like August. October was Novemberlike. And now November is feeling more like October (the October we never quite experienced). It's obvious Mother Nature doesn't consult a calendar - she makes it up as she goes...

Today will be mostly-gray, little more than some spotty drizzle (especially up north). Steadier light rain is likely Friday, but amounts don't look terribly impressive, probably under .10" rain. Yes, it will be warm enough aloft (statewide) for plain-Jane-rain. We dry out and cool off a few degrees Saturday, most of Sunday looks dry with fading sun as our on-again/off-again storm winds up over the Mississippi River Valley. The brunt of the moisture should stay JUST to our south and east early next week, a slow-moving storm brushing far southeastern Minnesota with some light rain. A few light showers may reach the Twin Cities, but St. Cloud, Willmar and Brainerd should stay dry. I still don't see any arctic air - no significant snow - although the mercury should tumble just in time for Thanksgiving, highs stuck in the 30s (north), maybe some low/mid 40s south, just a few degrees below average, whatever THAT is. No megastorms in time for Thanksgiving travel, but give it a few days. I always get extra-nervous around major holidays. Murphy's Third Law: storms (given a choice) PREFER to come on holidays. So far so good, but check back next week for a better preview of what the sky overhead may hold for Turkey-time.

GFS Outlook for 6 am, next Tuesday. It's pretty hard to miss the big "bulls-eye" low pressure system winding up to our south over Missouri. The bulk of the rain will slide off to our south and east, soaking Iowa and Wisconsin. We can't rule out a little rain over far southeastern MN from late Monday into Tuesday night. Stay tuned (still looks like a rain event, not enough cold air aloft - yet for significant snow).

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Mostly cloudy, windy, still milder than average. Winds: S 15-25. High: 55

Tonight: Cloudy with drizzle, temperatures not falling much. Low: 47

Friday: Gray and damp with periods of light rain/drizzle - nearly steady temperatures. (damp for Friday evening football games). High: 49

Saturday: Becoming partly sunny, breezy and drier. High: 49

Sunday: Sunny start, clouds increasing PM hours. High: near 50

Monday: Cloudy, windy, chance of a little light rain, especially south/east of the Twin Cities. High: 46

Tuesday: Any rain tapers. Breezy and seasonably cool with some PM sun. High: 45

Wednesday: Partly sunny and brisk. High: 45

Thursday: More clouds, chance of drizzle or very light rain. High: 44

The magic starts to fade

"November always seemed to me the Norway of the year," wrote Emily Dickinson, who apparently equated Norway and shivering. Thomas Hood was even less kind to the month:

"No warmth, no cheerfulness, no healthful ease,

"No comfortable feel in any member -

"No shade, no shine, no butterflies, no bees,

"No fruits, no flowers, no leaves, no birds -

"November!"

My hunch is that both Emily and Tom were optimists. November can be nothing short of grim: gray, cold, blustery, talk of rain early in the month mutating into snow-babble around Thanksgiving as Canada stabs increasingly numbing airmasses south of the border. We pick up an average of 8-10" of snow this month (on average), making November the third snowiest month of the year. Yes, really! September is hypnotizing, October a cool slap across the face. November can be a punch to the nether regions, a subtle yet blunt reminder that winter is not only imminent - it's here.

That's what makes the last 10 days especially remarkable: unusually sunny, mild - quiet, almost as if Mother Nature is showing true remorse for one of the wettest, coolest Octobers in modern-day records. You'll still see the sun today, cloaked behind a thickening veil of cirrus and altostratus (mid-level) clouds streaming in from the Dakotas. Even so the mercury should reach the mid 50s, a good 10-15 degrees warmer than average. You'll notice a stiff wind kicking in by Thursday, an approaching cold front squeezing out .25 to .50" of rain by late Friday.

Where's the Snow? The latest snow cover map, courtesy of NOAA. There's still ample snow over the highest terrain of the Rockies, but note the nearly total absence of snow on the ground east of Denver. Parts of the Great Lakes and interior New England should have a few inches of snow on the ground by mid November. Not this year.


A Forgettable October. According to the weather gurus at NOAA October was the wettest and the third coolest on record. For Minnesota it was the 5th coldest, in Oklahoma it was the coldest October in modern-day records. Only Florida was warmer than average. For more fun weather statistics that will make you the center of attention at your next party click here.

The sun peeks through Saturday (temperatures much closer to average - we'll all be rummaging around for heavy jackets) and the approach of a trough of low pressure could spark a little wet snow Saturday night; a coating or dusting of slushy snow isn't out of the question Saturday night, but right now I can't get too excited about amounts. We start to warm up again Sunday (the odds of a major rain storm late Sunday into Monday have diminished dramatically in the last 24 hours). A warming trend is expected the first half of next week, more 50s likely (although 60 may be a bit of a stretch). There's little doubt we'll finish the first half of November with temperatures 6-8 degrees above average. Colder air is brewing for Thanksgiving week, although I still don't see any awe-inducing arctic fronts in our future, looking out 10-15 days. The last few days have been an atmospheric gift from on high, a reminder of how stunning November can be in Minnesota, the exception, not the norm. The trend is for Minnesota winters to be shrinking, fewer days with heavy snow (or snow on the ground). Doubt that? Ask any snowmobiler, cross country skier (or kid). Snow days have been rare in recent decades. El Nino SHOULD leave us with a slightly milder, slightly drier winter - at least on paper. Reality may not be so kind, but the last 10 days have been a pleasant intermission. The tumble into the depths of winter isn't a straight downward line - make the most of this "lack of weather"!

Slow Temperature Tumble. Daytime highs should reach the mid 50s today and tomorrow, then drop into the 40s by the weekend, the atmosphere marginally cold enough for a few snow showers or flurries Saturday night.

Almanac. Tuesday's high at MSP: 61. Rainfall for November: .09" Snowfall: 0" Temperatures running 7.1 degrees warmer than average.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Dim sun through increasing clouds, windier. Winds: South 15-25. High: 56

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Low: 41

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, chance of a little drizzle, especially north of town. High: 55

Friday: Periods of rain, wettest day of the week. High: near 50

Saturday: More clouds than sun, chilly. High: 50 (slight chance of a little wet snow Saturday night).

Sunday: Partly sunny, breezy, a bit milder. High: 51

Monday: Intervals of sun, pleasant. High: 53

Tuesday: Plenty of sun, still above average. High: 54

Wednesday: Increasing clouds, cooler. High: 51