* Still mild Sunday, chance of drizzle increases during the day, highs may top 50.
* Steadier light rain Monday, just wet roads.
* Cold enough for a little slushy snow Tuesday and Wednesday, coating of slush can't be ruled out.
* Flurries possible for Thanksgiving Day, highs hold in the 30s.
* Dry for Friday power-shopping, temperatures begin to thaw.
* Potential for big storm the weekend after Thanksgiving fades.
* November to end on a chilly, more seasonable note.
A short update today - there's no imminent "weather" out there. I hope you had a chance to soak up 51 wondrous degrees Saturday under a dazzling blue sky. Consider we enjoyed HALF as much daylight yesterday as we do during the summer months I guess 50 degrees is a pretty big deal. Relatively mild weather lingers through Monday, a little drizzle today, steadier light rain likely to slow traffic a bit on Monday, when .10 to .20" of rain may fall. Temperatures chill down by Tuesday, and the GFS model is hinting at a coating of slush by midweek (best chance of a little accumulation on lawns/fields at night, most main roads should just be wet during the day, with highs well above freezing). A nagging storm over the Great Lakes will keep a few flurries around for Thanksgiving Day, along with a cold wind and highs holding in the 30s. For Friday's "Running of the Shoppers" the weather should cooperate - rare, late-November sun, highs near 40, nothing falling from the heavens. Another front arrives next weekend, a little snow for northern Minnesota, but the potential for a substantial statewide storm has diminished considerably. One thing is as certain as gravity: temperatures will tumble as the week goes on, by the end of November there will be NO doubt in your mind that the atmosphere is shifting gears. That said, what a break, what a memorable intermission from snow and wind chill. November will go down in the record books as one of the 3 or 4 warmest in modern-day history, even with the late-month cooling trend. Consider it an early holiday gift.
Golf in November? Why not? A friend of mine, Tom Wheeler, played 18 holes on Friday at Pioneer Crossing, out in Medina. A number of courses in the state are still open. A few have a special deal: the cost of a round is HALF the current temperature when you check in. For example, if it's 44 degrees, you only have to pay $22 for a round. Pretty clever. Truth be told the last 10 consecutive Novembers have been mild enough to play golf in Minnesota. That's "unprecedented historically", according to Professor Mark Seeley at the U. of Minnesota.
Potential for Slush? The GFS model is hinting at a coating to 1" of slush across much of central and eastern Minnesota by midweek - roads will probably be wet during the day (highs well above freezing) but any light snow that falls at night may "stick." Stating the obvious: we're due.
A Reality Readjustment. After peaking near 50 the next couple of days temperatures will start to tumble by midweek, highs in the mid 30s by Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day. Coats and heavy jackets will stage a comeback by midweek.
Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities
Today: Mostly cloudy, a little drizzle possible. Winds: S 5-10. High: 51
Sunday Night: Cloudy and damp, little more than drizzle, unusually mild. Low: 39
Monday: A period of steady rain likely. High: 49
Tuesday: Showers, possibly mixing with a little wet snow - probably no accumulation. High: 43
Wednesday: Snow showers and flurries, coating of slush possible, especially at night. High: 37
Thanksgiving Day: More clouds than sun, a few flurries. High: 39
Friday: Dry and sunny for power-shopping. High: 43
Saturday: Windy, turning colder, a few flurries in the air. High: 36