Sunday, June 21, 2009

Partly soggy Father's Day

Paul's Outlook

Today: Clouding up with showers and a few thunderstorms likely. Rain may be heavy at times during the afternoon and evening hours. A few strong/severe T-storms are possible over far southeastern MN. Winds: E/SE 10-20. High: 76

Tonight: Showers slowly taper off, still humid. Low: 64

Monday: Partly sunny, becoming hot and sticky. High: 91

Tuesday: Hazy sun, steamy and uncomfortable. Heat index: mid/upper 90s. High: 93

Wednesday: Showers and storms AM hours, then clearing skies by afternoon. High: 85

Thursday: Plenty of sun, more comfortable humidity levels. High: 86

Friday: AM sun, PM clouds, T-storms moving in later. High: 84

Saturday (June 27): Lot's of sun, breezy, noticeably less humid. High: 82

Sunday: Cooler and more comfortable. Sun much of the day giving way to increasing clouds late. Nighttime rain/storms possible. High: 79

SPC outlook for Sunday showing a slight risk of severe thunderstorms extending into extreme southeastern MN, including Rochester, Austin, Albert Lea and Winona, where wind profiles and additional heating of the ground may be sufficient to spawn a few isolated storms capable of large hail and damaging winds.

WRF outlook for 7 am today. A sunny start is likely up north, in the lakes region, but people living in Windom, Pipestone and Fairmont may wake up to puddles. Get out EARLY if you want to beat the rain.

WRF forecast for 1 pm Sunday showing the heaviest showers/storms stretching from southwest into central Minnesota, maybe some 1"+ rainfall amounts from Redwood Falls into St. Cloud and Willmar. It should be raining in St. Cloud and the Twin Cities by midday.

WRF temperature prediction for 1 pm today, showing cool 60s over much of southwestern and central Minnesota, where the heaviest, steadiest rain is predicted. This time of year thick cloud cover and rain can make a 15-20 degree difference in temperatures. Warmer weather is expected over southeastern Minnesota and far northern counties, where precipitation will be spotty and more showery.

WRF prediction for 7 pm today. The heaviest showers/storms spread into Little Falls, Brainerd and Wadena. A few storms far southeast may be strong to severe, but any severe weather will affect a tiny percentage of Minnesota, well under 1/2 of 1% of the state.

Weather Headlines

* 84 degree high on Saturday, 86 in the Twin Cities.

* Today: rain likely, best chance midday into the evening hours, over 1" for much of central MN by late tonight.

* Slight severe storm threat far southeastern Minnesota later today.

* 90 degree+ highs Monday and Tuesday, heat index may approach 100 south/west of the MN River.

* Turning slightly cooler and less humid the latter half of the week.

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