Thursday, June 4, 2009

A "Plan B" Weekend

Weather Headlines

* 78 degree high on Thursday in the Twin Cities and St. Cloud, close to average for this date.

* Today: nearly 10 degrees cooler than yesterday with gusty northwest winds at 15-25 mph.

* Chance of rain increases by midday/afternoon on Saturday.

* Computer models print out potential for .5 - 1" of rain from Saturday PM into Sunday.

* Heaviest, steadiest rain falls over northern half of Minnesota Sunday. Temperatures hold in the 50s both days, wind will make it FEEL like 40s.

* Unseasonably cool weather lingers most of next week, highs in the 60s.

* Long-range GFS model still predicting 80s to near 90 by Tuesday, June 16.

The combination of a). lack of rain, b). bright sun, c). dry, Canadian air with low dew points, and d). gusty winds has created an extreme fire danger, especially around the Twin Cities metro area on up to the St. Cloud area. Southern Minnesota is in better shape, along with far northern counties of the state. Burning restrictions are in effect for Crow Wing and southern Cass counties. Until we do get some significant rain (more than .25" or so) the risk of wildfires will remain off the scale. Be extra careful with campfires, back yard barbecues and discarded cigarette butts for the next 48 hours. Isn't that a good reason to quit, come to think of it?

For the latest fire index from the Minnesota DNR click here.

Speaking of dry, check out the latest stream-flow volume from WaterWatch (United States Geological Survey). The red dots signify the least water flow, found mostly on eastern streams and rivers (including the St. Croix). Stream volume tends to increase the farther north and west you travel across the state.

Paul's Outlook

Today: Partly sunny, turning windy and cooler. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 72

Tonight: Clearing, unseasonably chilly for early June. It is early June, right? Low: 44

Saturday: Jacket weather. Cloudy with rain likely by afternoon. Winds: East 10-15. High: 59

Sunday: Cool, periods of rain likely. Strong T-storms possible far southern MN. High: 63

Monday: Damp start, then PM sunshine. High: 63

Tuesday: Intervals of sun, isolated shower possible PM hours. High: 65

Wednesday: Sun fading late in the day. High: 67

Thursday: Unsettled, growing chance of showers, possible thunder. High: 72

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