Doubt that we live in the Super Bowl of Weather? This is why we have boasting rights for North America, why strangers flinch when you tell them where you live....because of nights like this. Here we are, less than 3 weeks from the Summer Solstice, when the sun is (allegedly) as high in the sky as it ever gets, and there's frost in the forecast just north of St. Cloud, from Little Falls, Camp Ripley and Brainerd east to Garrison, Mille Lacs and the far northern suburbs of the Twin Cities. The Frost Advisory is in effect for roughly the northern half of Minnesota, a Freeze Warning is posted for the MN Arrowhead, from Grand Rapids to Hibbing, Duluth and the North Shore, a "freeze" defined as 3 hours or more colder than 28 F, cold enough to kill off most new plant life.
Here's another vaguely terrifying nugget of information: over the next few days it will be as much as 10 degrees warmer in Fairbanks, Alaska than it will be here at home. Let that sink in a little....
...FROST POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN...
.A LARGE AREA OF COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO
CENTRAL MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING
TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE QUICKLY. AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY FROM
THE STAPLES AREA THEN THROUGH LITTLE FALLS...MILACA AND MORA LATE
TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MID 30S. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE AROUND ALEXANDRIA AND MORRIS AS WELL AS IN THE WESTERN
WISCONSIN REGION AROUND AMERY...RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH.
MNZ042>045-030300-
/O.NEW.KMPX.FR.Y.0002.090603T0700Z-090603T1200Z/
TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LONG PRAIRIE...LITTLE FALLS...
PRINCETON...MORA
151 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2009
...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES
WILL TUMBLE QUICKLY. AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY FROM THE STAPLES
AND LONG PRAIRIE AREAS THEN THROUGH LITTLE FALLS...MILACA AND MORA
LATE TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DIP INTO THE MID 30S.
Was it an omen? Yesterday at 9:28 am the local National Weather Service issued "Blizzard Safety Tips" on the public service wire. I kid you not. It was obviously some sort of computer glitch (Y2K?) but it really set me back. Do they know something the rest of us don't? Because if we have a blizzard in June, no matter how much I love Minnesota, I may have to rethink this whole weather-thing. Quick,
click here to see this odd (prophetic?) glitch for yourself before someone at the NWS has it removed! Scroll down. Prepare to be SHOCKED!
Why do I think this won't come as a shock? From time to time the weather becomes "locked" into a persistent pattern (especially when the Pacific Ocean is unusually warm or cool, an El Nino or La Nina event). Whether it's the NAO, the North Atlantic Oscillation (sounds painful) or just random chance, prevailing jet stream winds will blow out of Canada through at least the first half of next week, keeping our temperatures a good 5-10 degrees cooler than average. No more 80s anytime soon (and most Minnesotans are probably just fine with that!) The bad news: you may need a wet suit if you're hoping to take a dip in that northern lake over the weekend - air temperatures may not climb out of the 50s, and (stating the obvious) it's going to take quite a bit longer for your favorite body of water to warm to a point where it's tolerable to swim, water ski or do a little wake boarding. According to the CPC, the Climate Prediction Center, odds favor cooler than normal weather from the west coast across roughly the northern third of Minnesota through most of June. Air conditioning optional until further notice. The bad news? This spell of unusually weather, more typical of early May than early June, will keep the most active frontal boundaries (think thunder-magnets) well south of Minnesota much of this month, and my hunch, my semi-educated GUESS, is that the Drought of '09 will get worse before it gets better, hopefully later in the summer.
Saturday still appears to be the nicer, sunnier, drier day of the weekend, but plan on COOL. Highs will hold in the 60s locally, with readings in the 50s up north from the Brainerd Lakes to the Detroit Lakes area - not a great day to loiter on the lake (but the fish may be biting bigtime, especially Sunday morning!) Check out the (GFS) model prediction for the dinner hours Sunday evening....the steadiest rain/showers forecast to be over the northern half of Minnesota.
To see the very latest GFS 10-Day computer run for the USA, click
here.
Get this, an even COOLER cool front sweeps south behind Sunday's storm, and next Monday may feel more like late April, with 50s over the northern half of Minnesota, temperatures struggling into the low 60s over southern counties with an outbreak of jackets statewide. What gives? Does this mean the entire summer will be dry and unreasonably cool? No, not necessarily. Remember last year? Almost every weekend in June was a wash-out - true summer heat didn't really stick around until July. Looks like a possible rerun of last year. I'll keep scanning the maps, and give the Doppler a swift kick. Maybe the long-range outlook will get a little more tolerable as the week goes on. One can always hope.
Weather Headlines
* 74 in the Twin Cities, Redwood Falls picks up .12" of rain.
* Patchy clouds, 1 in 8 chance of a light shower or sprinkle by midday/afternoon, but today's cool front should come through dry across most of Minnesota. After-school activities are NOT in danger.
* Bright sun, less wind on Wednesday as high pressure settles overhead.
* Thursday: milder, back into the 70s, closer to "average".
* 1 in 4 chance of a shower Friday as the next cool front arrives.
* Saturday: nicer, sunnier day of the weekend, shower (opportunity) increases on Sunday, best chance of a few hours of rain over the northern half of Minnesota Sunday afternoon.
* Cool weekend on tap: 50s north (for highs!) Southern MN towns should see 60s.
* Turning even COOLER early next week, more like late April than early June by Monday. Keep the jackets handy.
* Next chance of 80 degrees? Friday, June 12. Good grief.
Paul's Outlook
Today: Partly sunny, a cool breeze, slight chance of a passing sprinkle. Winds: N 10-20. High: 66
Tonight: Clearing, downright chilly for early June. Low: 45 (30s toward Little Falls and Mille Lacs)
Wednesday: Bright sun, less wind.....better. High: near 70
Thursday: Milder with sun fading behind increasing clouds. High: 76
Friday: Patchy clouds, slight chance of a passing shower or two. High: 68
Saturday: Nicer day of the weekend...ample sun, but cool. High: 66
Sunday: More clouds, showers move in, steadier rain north. High: 65 (50s north)
Monday: Unseasonably cool and windy with more clouds than sun....more like late April. High: 62 (holding in the 50s over central Minnesota).
Weather Stats for May 2009:
North America:
Mean Temperature: (60.72F) 17th warmest in 50 years. Warmest May since 2007, but only the 5th warmest in 8 years (2001).
Precipitation: 9th wettest May in 50 years, wettest since 2004, 4th wettest since 1990.
U.S:
Mean Temperature: (64.74F) 10th warmest in 50 years. Warmest May since 2007, but only the 5th warmest in 8 years (2001).
Precipitation: 7th wettest May in 50 years, wettest since 2003, 3rd wettest since 1990.
Bakersfield, CA: (76.46F) 4th warmest May in 50 years. Warmest since May 2001 and 3rd warmest since May 1992 (17 years).
Reno, NV: (65.02F) 2nd warmest May in 50 years lagging only May 2001.
Houston, TX: (78.14) 7th warmest May in 50 years. Warmest since May 2003 and 4th warmest since May 1996 (13 years).
Raleigh-Durham, NC: (70.80F) 5th warmest May in 50 years. Warmest since 2004 and 3rd warmest since 1991 (18 years).
Orlando, FL (14.56 inches) Wettest May ever shattering the record of 10.36 inches set back in 1976.
Little Rock, AR (13.05 inches) Wettest May ever besting the record of 12.74 inches set back in 1968.
Baltimore-Washington: (8.42 inches) 2nd wettest May in 50 years lagging only May 1989.
(Update: 1:30 pm Saturday. Doppler radar shows the heaviest bands of rain surging across southern Minnesota, where some 1-1.5" rainfall amounts are expected. The Twin Cities metro area should pick up 1"+ of badly needed rain; the heaviest, steadiest rains come this afternoon, rain slowly tapering off to a drizzle by late tonight. Sunday starts out damp & drizzly, but overall it will be a drier day - still gray and unseasonably cool for early June).
The good news: check out the swath of significant rain predicted for the next 5 days, centered over southeastern MN and much of Wisconsin. Rainfall amounts drop off as you head north of St. Cloud and Mille Lacs, but this is the wettest QPF (quantitave precipitation forecast) I've seen in over 3 weeks. Note: the QPF tends to over-predict rainfall amounts, it's the trends that are important. For the very latest 5-Day rainfall prediction for the USA click here.
O.K. In the spirit of full disclosure here's the bad news: these are the predicted HIGHS for today, not the lows. Really! It will look and feel more like early/mid April out there than early June. Skip the sunscreen, save some cold cash on air conditioning (in fact you probably shouldn't be surprised if you hear the furnace kick on). Good grief....
Yes, "we need the rain, you know." No kidding. The southern half of Minnesota is too dry. For the record it would take anywhere from 1.5 to 3.25" of rain to pull east central and southeastern MN from the current drought. Yes, we do need the rain. The lousy timing is unfortunate, but there's not much we can do about that. To check out the latest Drought Monitor map click here.
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