Saturday, July 11, 2009

El Nino is Back

Weekend Weather Headlines

* 85 degree high on Friday, late-day showers sprout ahead of a cool front.

* Dew points dip into the upper 40s and low 50s today, nearly half as much water in the air as yesterday.

* Today: the sunnier, nicer outdoor day of the weekend.

* Showers likely Sunday, even a few thunderstorms. Potential rainfall: .3 to .5"

* No extreme heat in sight through the third week of July.

* Moderate drought extends into west central Minnesota. Moderate to severe drought conditions linger near Twin Cities and much of southeastern Minnesota.

* Twin Cities metro running a 6" rainfall deficit since April 1. St. Cloud rainfall amounts 2-3" below average since start of the growing season.

* Silver lining to our cooler, drier summer? Only 8 tornadoes so far in Minnesota. 10 year running average for the entire year: 44. Running 30 year average: 27 tornadoes.

* Average 6 pm dew point during June: 49.5 F. That's the lowest (most comfortable) dew point since 1982.

Paul's Weekend Outlook

Today: Plenty of sunshine, breezy and pleasant. Winds: NW 10-15. High: near 80

Tonight: Clear evening, showers move in late. Low: 57

Sunday: Lot's of clouds, unsettled, more humid with showers likely, even a thunderstorm. Winds: N/NE 5-15. High: 76

Monday: Sun returns, warmer. High: 81

Tuesday: More clouds, thunderstorms likely. High: 76

Wednesday: Mix of clouds and sunshine. High: 77

Thursday: Patchy clouds, slight chance of a T-shower. High: 79

Friday: Plenty of sun - very pleasant. High: 80

Saturday (June 18) Sunny start, then increasing PM clouds - showers late. High: 78

WRF/NMM model valid 7 pm today. No rain is expected anywhere in the state from 1 pm to 7 pm today, a weak bubble of (Canadian) high pressure drifting overhead. Winds will blow from the W/NW at 10-15, with a few afternoon gusts to 20 mph. on area lakes. Expect low humidity and nearly unlimited visibility - no question today should be the nicer outdoor day of the weekend.

WRF/NMM model valid 7 pm Sunday. Showers and a few isolated T-storms surge into western Minnesota late Saturday night and linger into the afternoon/evening hours Sunday. It won't rain the entire day, but many towns will pick up 3-6 hours of rain, the best chance of .50" of rain coming over the southern half of Minnesota.

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