Monday, July 27, 2009

Stuck in a Cool Rut

A July with no 90s? According to Pete Boulay at the MN State Climate Office that hasn't happened since 1994. Come to think of it there were no 90s in July in either 1992, 1993 or 1994. So it's unusual, but not unprecedented. You have to go back 15 years to find a similar (almost comfortable) July.

MSP Almanac

July temperatures for MSP: 3.2 degrees cooler than average (so far).

Only 1.52"of rain has fallen on the metro area so far in July. A mere 9.48" of rain has fallen on the Twin Cities since January 1. Last year 12.87" of rain had fallen as of July 27. According to long-term National Weather Service records we should have seen 16.97" of rain in the metro area as of this date, a nearly 7 1/2" rainfall deficit which explains the severe drought conditions across most of the area.

WRF/NMM Model for 7 am Thursday morning
, showing predicted accumulated rainfall between 1 am and 7 am Thursday morning. Significant rain is possible over central and southeastern Minnesota ahead of the next reinforcing cool front, the best chance of some 1-2" amounts south and east of the Twin Cities. We're still in a severe drought spanning the entire metro area, so a midweek soaking would be just what the Weather Doctor ordered.

Paul's Outlook

Tuesday: Plenty of sun, breezy, cooler. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 76

Tuesday night: Mostly clear and comfortably cool, bordering on chilly! Low: 52

Wednesday: Sunny start, then increasing clouds. Rain possible late, continuing into Wednesday night (heaviest amounts probably south/east of St. Cloud). High: 77

Thursday: Damp, gray start, then turning partly sunny and brisk - cooler again. High: 74

Friday: Warm sun, feels like summer. High: 83

Saturday: Cooler with morning sun, PM clouds, few showers (best chance northern lakes). High: 77

Sunday: Clouds increase, slight chance of late-day showers. High: 76

Monday: Still waiting for the Dog Days. Partly cloudy, plenty of fresh air. High: 74

Weather Information Table
Precipitation and Temperature Summary for 7/20/2009 through 7/26/2009

Temperature Precipitation G D D
High Low Week Depart Week Depart From Norm Since Depart
Ave from Total Past Four Since May from
Norm Week Weeks 4/1 4 Norm
Aitkin          78  41  58.8  -8.2    3.42  2.36   .17  -1.24   881   -70
Forest Lake 80 50 62.9 -8.2 .38 -.63 -1.76 -7.38 1128 -77
Hinckley 75 41 58.0 -10.3 1.99 .97 -.82 -5.08 863 -135
MSP Airport 82 53 66.4 -7.1 .04 -.85 -2.67 -7.17 1269 -44
St. Paul - UofM 79 50 64.3 -8.6 .06 -.91 -2.96 -8.91 1230 -55
Temperatures last week ran 7-10 degrees cooler than average for the third week of July. Hinckley was chilliest, reporting a week with temperatures more than 10 degrees cooler than what they should be. Moisture was fickle: only .04" at MSP International Airport, while 3.42" of rain soaked Aitkin. Since April 1 St. Paul is showing a nearly 9" rainfall deficit; generally east metro is drier than west metro. The column on the far right is "Growing Degree Days", the cooler weather means plant growth is generally not as far along as it should be by the end of July. There is a wealth of information at the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. Click here to see the latest information (week by week) for Minnesota.

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