Monday, July 13, 2009

A little too nice?

Twin Cities Almanac for Sunday. High: 79 Low: 63 Precipitation: 0"

* For what it's worth I'll be on KARE-11 tonight at 10 pm with Belinda Jensen, talking about WeatherNow, the all-weather digital channel that is tapping some of WeatherNation's meteorologists and technology. I wonder if I'll be able to find my way around the new & improved back yard? I'm looking forward to the visit - should conjure up some good memories!

Paul's Outlook

Today: Generous sunshine, pleasantly mild. Winds: E 5-15. High: 81

Tonight: Mostly clear and quiet. Low: 64

Tuesday: Sun gives way to increasing clouds - late day showers/T-storms spill over into Tuesday night. High: 79

Wednesday: Damp, gray start, then partly sunny. High: 76

Thursday: Morning sun, PM clouds, slight chance of late-day thunder. High: 77

Friday: Lot's of sun, beautiful. High: 79

Saturday: Mostly sunny, a fine day for the lake or pool. High: near 81

Sunday: Hanging onto sunshine, few complaints (less wind). High: 83

Monday: Unsettled, growing thunder risk/opportunity late in the day. High: 84

Rainfall Last week for the USA. Anything lighter than orange received at least 1" of rain. Note how much of the nation received well under 1" of rain, including central and northern Minnesota.

That said, Mother Nature will charm you with blue skies and lukewarm temperatures today, humidity levels still quite tolerable for mid summer. An approaching cool front will shove a few rag-tag showers and T-storms from west to east across the state Tuesday, most of the rain holding off until Tuesday night. Right now it doesn't look like much, amounts probably winding up in the .10 to .25" range - just enough to settle the dust. We dry out Wednesday before another (slight) possibility of bumping into a stray shower or storm Thursday. All in all a fairly quiet, uneventful week is shaping up, moisture and instability marginal for any severe weather outbreak late Tuesday. Temperatures will run on the cool side of normal, highs mostly in the 70s, humidity levels more reminiscent of mid September than mid July. The weekend is still pretty far off, but already a high percentage of Minnesotans are fixating on next weekend's weather. So far so good - computer models are hinting at a weak bubble of high pressure dropping southward out of Canada, treating us to sunshine both days, highs in the upper 70s to near 80. The next 90? At this rate don't hold your breath, but the GFS model is predicting low 90s by Monday, July 27. Mark your calendar. Until then enjoy Summer Lite, summer without all the harsh, unpleasant side-effects - precious little hail and humidity to speak of. I can live with that...

Sunday's Near-Record Warmth. I keep pleading with people to try and keep a global perspective about climate, and not confuse weather with longer-term climate trends. Just because we've been cooler than average doesn't mean the entire planet is trending cooler. Yesterday near-record warmth was observed over the southern Plain states and parts of Alaska.

Today's Weather Map, valid at 1 pm. A bubble of high pressure sunning itself over Duluth will keep our skies blue most of the day, temperatures close to average for July 13. A return flow of moisture on the backside of that fair-weather-maker will increase winds across the Dakotas (note the isobars are closer together, implying stronger winds) with showers and storms forming just to our west. With any luck some of that moisture will drift into Minnesota tomorrow.

Precipitation Forecast from 7 am Tuesday to 7 am Wednesday. Computer models are hinting at some 1"+ rainfall amounts in a band just south of the Twin Cities, with another, heavier 1-2" band of rain setting up over far northern Minnesota. Once again central counties may get ripped off in the rainfall department.

No comments:

Post a Comment