Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Long range trend: "stinking hot"

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Plenty of sunshine, comfortable. Winds: South 3-8 mph. High: 77

Wednesday night: Clouds increase, slight chance of a shower late. Low: 57

Thursday: Partly cloudy, seasonably mild. High: 79

Friday: Unsettled, warmer and more humid - slight risk of a passing T-storm. High: 86

Saturday: Hot, sticky, rather uncomfortable - chance of thunder, especially Saturday night. High: near 93 (heat index may top 100 over far southern MN).

Sunday: More sun, breezy and less humid. High: 87

Monday: Plenty of sun, cooler, more comfortable again. High: 84

Tuesday: Sunshine lingers, little chance of significant rain. High: 83

Extended Outlook: mid 80s through the middle of next week, but 90-95 degree highs are very possible, even likely by the end of next week and the weekend of August 15-16.

Cloud to Ground Lightning Strikes within the last 30 minutes, courtesy of WSI. Doppler radar shows rain/hail but does not give any clues whether clouds are capable of sparking nature's deadliest spark: lightning. If you have an outdoor bash coming up in the evening or weekend I wouldn't hesitate to visit this site, make sure you "refresh" your browser and check for yourself if lightning is nearby.

Daily Rainfall, courtesy of WSI. This is based on a mosaic of reports from local NWS "NEXRAD" Doppler sites around the USA, and is usually fairly accurate. One disclaimer: a T-storm cell with significant hail can contaminate the display, resulting in estimated rainfall amounts that are much higher than reality. For the very latest information click here.

Weekly Rainfall, again, courtesy of WSI. In the last 7 days the heaviest streaks of rain have been observed from Mille Lacs and the southern Twin Cities metro area on east toward Green Bay and Wausau, but it's still not enough. Keep in mind that lawns and fields require at least 1" of rain every WEEK for sustained, healthy growth. We haven't been getting our fair share of rain in recent months - moderate to severe drought conditions linger over central Minnesota. The next Drought Monitor update comes out Thursday.

Satellite image of the USA, showing an MCS (meso-convective system) OR a potential "derecho" over the Ohio Valley, a sprawling swarm of severe thunderstorms covering thousands of square miles, capable of flooding rains, damaging straight-line winds, even isolated tornadoes. Most storms tend to self-destruct after 45-60 minutes. Rain/hail-cooled air snuffs out the warm updraft and the storm fizzles. But derecho's can sustain themselves for hour after hour, in some cases 1-2 days, covering 1,000-2,000 miles! There are among the least understood of all severe weather events, because they are relatively rare (there may be 6-10 derecho events during a typical summer for the entire USA). Click here for the latest high-resolution satellite image.

CPC 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook, showing above normal readings east of the Rockies for the second week of August. I have a hunch August may wind up warmer than July for much of Minnesota, which is a highly unusual turn of events.

Welcome to the Louisville, Kentucky Public Library, which at one point Tuesday was under 4 feet of mucky, nasty water, the result of a record 4.5" of rain falling in less than 3 hours. These days it's either drought or flood, sweatshirts or smoldering, desert-like heat. Not too much in-between, it seems.

No comments:

Post a Comment