Friday, August 21, 2009

A high pressure weekend

After a week of pure weather drama - soaking rains, fickle tornadoes, uncomfortably cool and gusty fronts sweeping out of Canada - it's nice to be able to kick back and predict a high-pressure weekend. Not high pressure as in stress, mind you. We're talking a bubble of high pressure, a bubble of mild, dry, clockwise rotating air - sinking and warming as it descends. This fair-weather-maker will linger into Monday morning, keeping skies sunny, dry and increasingly warm. 80 is possible Sunday afternoon, but likely Monday, out ahead of a weak cool front which may spark a fleeting shower or sprinkle by Monday afternoon.

WRF/NAM Model Output for 1 pm Sunday. Temperatures by midday Sunday should be flirting with 80 over roughly the western half of Minnesota, winds increasing from the southwest at 10-20 mph.

Weekend Weather Headlines

Precipitation: Dry both days, virtually no chance of rain.

Winds. Saturday: NE 5-15. Sunday: SE 5-15.

Rainfall: none expected.

Dew point: upper 40s Saturday, mid to upper 50s Sunday, the more humid day of the weekend.

4 Panel "NAM" Model Output for the weekend. A ridge of high pressure draped over Minnesota and Wisconsin will keep skies sunny, winds light, right through midday Monday. Meanwhile check out the eastern seaboard - Hurricane Bill will swipe Cape Cod and Martha's Vineyard by Sunday. President Obama and family is tentatively scheduled to vacation on Martha's Vineyard this weekend - my hunch is that Air Force One may remove the President, as a safety precaution, before the brunt of the storm passes just east of the Vineyard on Sunday. Although winds probably won't exceed 30 mph, surf as high as 10-15' is expected, bad news for vacationers arriving by ferry.

Putting a Real Dent in the Drought of '09. Check out the estimated rainfall amounts for the entire week (from August 14 - 21). The dark green regions picked up more than 4" of rain, roughly a 5-6 week allocation of precipitation. You can see a small region of 8"+ rainfall north of Taylor's Falls, the biggest soaking this past week was 30-60 miles north/east of St. Paul, ironically falling on the part of Minnesota suffering from "Extreme" drought conditions. Go figure.

Paul's Outlook for the Twin Cities

Today: Mostly sunny and beautiful with light winds. Winds: NE 5-10. High: 76

Tonight: Clear and cool. Low: 51

Sunday: Bright sun, a bit more wind and humidity, warmer too. Winds: SE 10-15. High: 82

Monday: Warm sun, feels like the Dog Days. High: 84

Tuesday: Clouds increase, growing risk of showers and T-storms. High: 81

Wednesday: Sunny, turning breezy, cooler and less humid. High: 78

Thursday: Mostly sunny and very nice. High: 79

Friday: Sun fading behind increasing clouds. High: 81

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